Aintree Day 1

To watch the BBC’s News at Ten this evening, you would be forgiven for assuming that a real and formal threat from nuclear-weapon wielding North Korea towards the United States of America was something to be concerned about as we head into the downhill half of our weeks.

 You might be wondering if you fit snugly into one of the seven new classes defined by sociologists at the beeb: “Oooh am I an emerging servicer or an established technical elitist?”

It's easy when you lie on the survey

 
Whatever. Here comes the sport. Oh, some non-English sides are competing for the major honours in European club football.  Whoopee.  Does it not seem strange to you that, with three days of premium National Hunt Racing ahead of us, all the major news channels are focusing on the banal and benign?

 
Sprinter Sacre is stepping up in trip; Flemenstar is back and out to prove the Casey camp aren’t all as mad as a box of frogs; Overturn has a disappointing Cheltenham from which to bounce back; Silviniaco Conti, nose still wet from that nasty festival fall, needs to dust himself down and rekindle the fiery confidence that has seen him so impressively answer the questions posed by large, bristly fences up and down the country; and Palphabet favourite Soll, having made mincemeat of the Sandown railway fences a few weeks ago, has this evening made the cut in the greatest steeplechase the world has ever known – the John Smith’s Grand National.


I’m sure if Kim Jong Un knew all of these varied threads were being woven into the great colourful tapestry of jumps racing as he spoke (undoubtedly in a rather menacing fashion, on the subject of world domination), he would pause for a moment, pick up the phone to Dennis Rodman and meet in the most mutually convenient of locations tomorrow afternoon: Aintree.

 

Isn't it easy to picture this very scene in a luxury trackside box at a Merseyside racecourse?

I, for one, would look forward to meeting him there, going for a curry and preparing for Ladies’ Day, followed by a night out in Liverpool, Grand National Saturday, and then another night out in Liverpool.  It's the home of The Beatles, KJU, all you need is love.. and a couple of decent-priced winners.
 

Now, as Tom Segal says in tomorrow's column (yes, I've bought an ipad with the RP app, very elitist I know): "Aintree always provides a tricky conundrum for punters". Namely: stick or twist. You either stay faithful to the Cheltenham pocket-liners like Sprinter Sacre, Flaxen Flare, The New One, Alderwood and Solwhit or you look for that kind croupier of the turf and hope he's going to deal you a better hand in the north west than he did down in the south west.  Celestial Halo, Overturn, Dodging Bullets, Conti, Countrywide Flame, Captain Conan, all capable of reversing form or improving on a totally different track. Of course there are those nags who we never even saw grace the festival floor to consider too. There's so much to think about I honestly do wonder why the general public care so much about some 17-year-old kid selling an app that seems to provide little more than the info you get when you click "news" on well-known search engine site google.com.  

The RP iPad app - wow, just wow.  Infinitely better than that 17 year old kid's one..

 
Here’s a few picks for Aintree’s Thursday card to hopefully line our collective pockets ahead of the weekend’s action:

2.00 – Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle


Not too sure why Far West isn’t lining up for this £56-grand, 2-mile opener for four year olds.  Nicholls is sending stable companion Irish Saint, thinks the track will suit and the bookies go 3/1, marginally larger odds than Henderson’s Rolling Star, who had the better of the Saint at Cheltenham in January.  It’s stick or twist time guys.  At 31/1, carrying £40 of my festival funds, Flaxen Flare was one of my Cleeve Hill heroes, having been tipped by Segal earlier that day before winning the Fred Winter in notable fashion.  Currently 5.9 on Betfair, I don’t want to be twisting on trainer Gordon Elliott any time soon.  He’s 6 from 19 in the past fortnight and his whole team are flying. 

Flaxon Flare was a real Festival Fillip

 

2.30 – Betfred Bowl Chase
 

Another Grade 1 with a stellar line-up of staying chasers to behold.  Silviniaco Conti is a shade of odds-on at 5/6 to triumph around Aintree, where he romped home by 13 lengths last year, and it would be foolish not to have him in your accumulator or lucky 15 for the day.  First Lieutenant steps back up in trip after being beaten in the Ryanair Chase over 2m 5f and is the preferred alternative under multiple festival-winning jockey Bryan Cooper.

 
3.05 – Aintree Hurdle.. another Grade 1

Zarkandar is given blinkers for this race, which is over a distance 25% longer than the Champion Hurdle in which we last saw him.  He was beaten by Countrywide Flame that day and that is reflected in their prices being 5/1 and 4/1 respectively.  Willie Mullins’s grey Thousand Stars appeals at 9/1 as he is a two-time runner up in this race (in both instances losing out to 11/2 shot Oscar Whisky) but I think I’ll side with Countrywide Flame and pick Raya Star as my big-priced each way outside at around 28/1.

 
3.40 – Fox Hunters’ Chase

Here we go, a juicy handicap with amateur riders to break the monotony of the day’s impeccable line-up of grade 1 superstars.  I always look for “The Dentist” in races like these – Mr Sam Waley-Cohen, who likes Aintree having been runner-up in the 2011 Grand National, and who saddles up on Cottage Oak at around 6/1.   Not a huge price, but has place claims so will put him in an each-way acca of some kind.
 

In the 4.15 – Red Rum Handicap Chase, the 4.50 Grade 1 Novices’ Chase and the 5.25 Handicap Hurdle card-closer, I am going Rebel Rebellion for Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls; Captain Conan who should go better than when fifth at Cheltenham on good-to-soft last month; and Ericht to complete the first-day double for Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.  Will probably perm these up with that Waley-Cohen mount in the Fox Hunters’... in fact, I have!

 

 

With other decent looking cards at Taunton (where Hunt Ball and Aaim to Prosper catch the eye), and Thurles (with Toner D’Oudairies stepping out for red-hot Gordon Elliott under the jockeyship of shunned-by-the-BHA champion Irish jockey Davy Russell) it really is time to prise ones finger off the warheads and hit the nuclear betting button.   Boom!

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 4

The fall of the Berlin Wall; the end of Queen Victoria's six-decade reign; the final episode of The Wire; reaching your destination after a satisfying automobile journey along a favourite route... all things eventually finish.  Yesterday this was evident in stark brutality, and as I assess my Bet365 balance (showing a £200 loss on First Lieutenant, and a £25 loss on a FL / Dynaste "banker" double), as well as my Betfair P&L this morning, it makes for a similar reading experience as one of Melanie Phillips’ Daily Mail columns: sickening.

Yuck

Muck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have never been trackside at Cheltenham’s “St Patrick’s Day” but it was an otherwise enjoyable experience.  Slightly shorter queues for bars and toilets (particularly after blagging it into the club enclosure) and Irish barmen in the Guinness tent seemingly more inebriated than their awaiting punters, World Hurdle day offered a pleasant alternative to Gold Cup Friday, which brings us to today. 

The amphitheatre of National Hunt Racing

 

I write this from the B&B in which we are staying  (I say B&B – it’s a family home that we have been taking over in increased numbers for the past few meetings at National Hunt HQ.. Essex raiders, if you will) and without the luxury of having much time at my disposal to think up my usual witticisms and anecdotes, I’ll get on with my selections for Friday.  Whilst I am hoping to end the week on a high, it would be wrong to look at yesterday and get too bogged down; ultimately it’s been a cracking week of punting and just being in the presence of Far West’s connections today is sure to make it an extremely pleasurable and memorable fourth day at my third festival.  Looking forward..

Triumph
Far West - been backing him for ages and, knowing one of the part owners as closely as I know my own member, it would be a delight to see the juvenile hurdler deliver at around 6/1 today.  Nicholls is bullish, and said in this morning's Betfair column: "I personally would say that we set the form standard going into this race".

County Hurdle
Ted Veale - heard some decent noise about this one, who carries just 10-6 with Bryan Cooper on board.  Cooper was atop Benefficient, slayer of Dynaste, yesterday and then stood in on First Lieutenant after reports that the unfortunate Davy Russell had spontaneously punctured a lung - get well soon Davy!

Albert Bartlett
At Fishers Cross.  The delightful Rebecca Curtis saddles this in-form bay gelding to provide that elusive 2013 festival win for AP McCoy, who I've just seen has been given the ride on Sir Des Champs in the Gold Cup following Davy Russell's withdrawal and the subsequent but unrelated non-running of Sunnyhillboy.

Gold Cup
Backed, and then layed a bit of Silviniaco Conti antepost after his recent winning of the Denman Chase at Newbury.  Nicholls is happy with SC and whilst there are plenty of doubters out there, he's said he's "confident that Conti goes into the race fit and well and on an upward curve".  Backed Sir Des Champs nearly a year ago and now buoyed by the booking of the 17-time consecutive champion jockey.  Going to take Long Run each-way too for the Waley-Cohen / Henderson crew - can't ignore that animal.  Now watch Bob's Worth make all and duly sluice up!

Foxhunter
Salsify.  Small bet on a fancied nag as part of a multiple - see below.

Martin Pipe
Act of Kalanisi for Dr Richard Newland, who I found out recently is involved in orthopaedics, much like myself!  AoK is ridden by 6-pound claiming jockey Christopher Ward (incidentally the name of one of my favourite watch brands).  Also backed Salubrious - PFN and Harry Derham (3).  As well as putting David Pipe's grey Gevrey Chambertin in a big acca, I also like Oh Crick and Shooters Wood too.. let's see how carried away I get at the track later!

Grand Annual
Last bet of the week.. well last festival bet anyway.    I was on Alderwood at 20/1 in last year's Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle and I'm going to get back involved today too, albeit only with a 0.5pt poke.

Finally, I've had a monster accumulator and Super Heinz with bet365.. pays out about a million-to-one.. fine.

 

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 3

There are many occasions that arise in the life of an amateur where you just have to doff your faux-tweed cap towards your professional counterparts.  I say counterparts as though it implies equality, parity or even comparability, but the gulf of knowledge and insight that exists between myself and Tom Segal of the Racing Post is equivalent to the 19-length canyon of space that stood this afternoon between equine perfection and mere mortality in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.   

On days like today, this fact makes me an extremely happy man as it helped me lift my sinking body out of the quagmire of deficit and catapulted me back into contention for days three and four, when I will be trackside at the Cheltenham Festival.

Sprinter Sacre’s performance was simply spectacular, and was everything pure racing enthusiasts longed to see.  Sizing Europe, himself a significantly more impressive horse than the rest of the field in the 3.20 Grade 1 contest, was left so far in the wake of Sprinter Sacre’s magnificence that you could barely see him cross the line in the background on television. 
 

Having the Sacre / Sizing straight forecast at 2.04 with bet365 was satisfying (as was the £0.38 I won with Betfair), and it means the “banker” portion of my festival Super Yankee did not fail to deliver, but truth be told, by this point in the afternoon, I was struggling for profits. 

I like the Whatsapp notification at the top

Nina Carberry got well and truly whipped in the 4-miler at the start of the day, trading as low as 1\100 on Betfair in-running as her horse, Tofino Bay was impressively beaten for pace and stamina up the infamous hill by Mullins’s 9/4f Back in Focus, who I think I heard traded at 26/1 in-play.  Nina’s own excessive whipping landed her a week’s ban later in the day.  My other selection, Godsmejudge, came third, but no profit was made on this race due to outright win stakes outweighing any win on the place-only stakes.

I had 3pts on “sure thing” Pont Alexandre in the Neptune, only to realise that the price of 6/4fav may have been based more on hype than substance as The New Onebreezed past to give likeable jockey Sam Twiston-Davies a clear and professional duck-breaking festival win for his father / trainer Nigel.

 

More funds evaporated in the RSA Chase, as Unioniste was left well back in 4^th, with my alternative selection Goulanes nowhere to be seen as Lord Windermere gave three-time Gold Cup winning jockey and 2002 Grand National winner Jim Culloty his first festival win as a trainer.  His jubilation, along with that of his rider, the jovial Davy Russell, brought just a weary half-smile to my lips.  I was around £190 down for the day.

 
After clawing about £100 back on the Champion Chase thanks to predicting the first two past the post in the correct order, the 4.00 Coral Cup sent me spiralling down out of control, like Goose ejecting from his F-14 Tomcat in Top Gun, having already broken his neck ejecting straight into the roof, before plummeting into the sea.  Where was my wingman, my Maverick?  Being more than a casual follower of Segal’s Pricewise tips meant that on top of my three selections, I had another two to add to my handicap portfolio in this race.  All failed to provide profit, leaving me another £245 down.

 Channel 4’s coverage had long since finished, and Maverick (Segal) had seemingly thrown my dogtags out to sea.  I was down and out for the day, over £350 out of pocket and deflated after yesterday’s successes.

 That was until a flare was put out there – Gordon Elliott’s Flaxon Flare.  The William Hill shop in which I was watching the Fred Winter may have been quiet, but somewhere on a distant radio I could hear Flare-way to Heaven being strummed out.  This horse had been tipped up by Segal in the morning at 25-1 and was now available at 32 on Betfair.  I upped my stake from a standard £25 to an increased £40, sensing both a value opportunity and a lifeline to claw on to (despite having enjoyed a few decent days of late, I am miserably myopic when it comes to seeing the bigger picture of punting at times).  Segal, not just a professional, a genius...

 
It won’t be of huge recompense to those who followed my tips today, but for followers of Tom Segal – a man who provides more useful professional advice than the Citizens’ Bureau – it was exactly what was required.  Just like that, my wingman and I were back in the bar of life, pounding out “Great Balls of Fire” like the good old days and ready to shoot the pesky migs outta the sky.  Right, I think that's enough of that terribly forced extended metaphor.

 A bit was lost on the bumper at 5.15, but it seems more or less everyone I know incredulously failed to notice that a trainer / jockey partnership well clear at the head of their respective festival leaderboards saddled up a 25/1 chance in the race, Briar Hill, who provided Andrea and Graham Wylie with some welcome compensation for the Boston Bob fall at the last in the RSA earlier in the day.  Willie Mullins having won this bumper with yesterday’s hero Champagne Fever just 12 months ago... how did we not see it?  Did you?

 
Total profit for Day 2 stood at just over £800.

 

Tomorrow..

 

Jewson & Pertemps

Dynaste is another supposed banker but I will just watch this race I think – I got my fingers burnt on Pont Alexandre today and don’t fancy David Pipe’s grey enough to lump anything meaningful on.  I will be at the track by this time and plan to enjoy the first couple of races, having already backed Sam Winner for the Pertemps in my Festival-week Super Yankee:

Ryanair

I’ll have a weighty bet on First Lieutenant, the favourite, here.  Wearing the Gigginstownhouse Stud silks of white star set against a maroon backdrop, he’ll be as easy to spot as his owner is to hear. Having backed First Lieutenant at 22/1 for the Lexus Chase in which he was runner-up only by a head to a stunning Ruby Walsh ride atop Tidal Bay, I expect FL to go one better here, giving Michael O’Leary, the guy whose company also sponsors this race, reason to shout... as if he needs one.   Thinking about it, I will also double up Dynaste (mentioned earlier) with this pick for a 7.75/1 multiple bet.

 
World Hurdle

To think we only got tickets for the Thursday this year so we could cheer Big Buck’s home at the track, rather than from the boozer.  I’ve backed Wonderful Charm in my Super Yankee.  I’ll also back the Wayne – King combination, Smad Place, who at 10/1 offers decent each-way value for a horse who came third in this race last year and who is young and presumably learning his trade.

 

Byrne Group Plate

“Lump on!” says Anthony Knott about his fans’ favourite Hunt Ball.  Quoted around 6/1 to defy top weights is pretty unattractive, but I’ll back him (having inexplicably backed him last year for this year’s Gold Cup) and hope to share the success with many elated punters.  I’m sure Segal will have a say in this race too!

 

Cross-Country

As discussed on Day 1, I’m on A New Story in this rescheduled, quirky card-closer.

This time tomorrow, we'll be out on the town in Cheltenham, so I'm not promising much.  Get on Far West for the JCB Triumph Hurdle on Friday, Silviniaco Conti and Long Run (E/W) for the Gold Cup, and have a good one!

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 2

All aboard the Champagne Express! I must admit I feel drunk on the bubbles and sick with the thrill of the high-octane power inflicted by Messers Mullins and Walsh today. Whilst trackside observers were fortunate enough to witness Ruby Tuesday in the serenity of the Cotswolds, many of us had to slip out of our regular routines to find a television in order to be able to witness the most hotly anticipated day of the national hunt racing calendar, and it has a physical effect on us!

Returning to work after a selection has won or lost can be equally as difficult. Shaking, sweating and unable to focus on your professional tasks; colleagues looking at you with suspicion and confusion. Even if you haven't had a gamble, watching or listening to those contests today was enough to distract even the most casual of racing fans.

Ruby Walsh performed at his absolute best this afternoon. the three winning rides upon Champagne Fever, Hurricane Fly and Quevega perfectly highlighting the harmony with which Ruby connects to his equine partners in very different ways.

Champagne Fever made all the running in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, holding off the JP McManus pair of Jezki and the favourite, My Tent or Yours, their iconic green and yellow hoops flanking the pink of Champagne, and rewarding followers of yesterday's blog with a 6/1 return to kick-start proceedings or reward for laying MTOY at around 2/1.

£375 profit to start the day - BetVictor would have refunded £50 of my
stake had Champagne Fever failed to get the corks popping

Ruby knew: "he jumped like a stag" were his poignant words to Alice Plunkett in the immediate aftermath of a race in which his TurfTrax times were at least a couple of seconds quicker than his ride in the second grade 1 hurdle of the day, the championship race - the Champion Hurdle.

But the ride given to Hurricane Fly in the more prestigious contest was the antithesis of Ruby's earlier victory. In the build up to the race, I got caught up in the excitement and recalled with more clarity (thanks to the channel 4 replay) the disdain with which the Fly recently won the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. Having backed Zarkandar with the Paddy Power offer, I took Hurricane Fly on Betfair at 2.74 and also backed the forecast with bet365. A mile into the race I was worried. Hurricane Fly seemed uncomfortable in his stride, was off the bridle and being asked to give more and was jumping with clumsiness. But somehow, Ruby calmed the 2011 champion hurdler down and found some rhythm. Sidestepping the fallen Grandouet and back in control, he hunted down Rock on Ruby and the impressive (and young) Countrywide Flame, who I had antepost and topped up on each-way before the off, with the precision of a marksman. It was a breathtaking finish to an extraordinary race.



Last-minute money on Hurricane Fly with Betfair...Money back on losing Zarkandar bet with Paddy Power 

 

Simonsig vs Overturn disappointed in the Arkle, with the grey getting the job done, but with none of the fluency we were expecting, and the brave McCain trained flat and hurdle hero Overturn unable to get Simonsig to tire under the scrutiny of a rapid pace. I let out a small sigh, having laid Simonsig and backed overturn, whilst Backers of Simonsig / Quevega doubles breathed a sigh of relief.  After all, the Mares' Hurdle was a foregone conclusion.. wasn't it?

I quite literally backed the wrong horse.. and layed the right one too

At 1.8 on Betfair, the market didn't seem sure, so I have a £100 on her, with a speculative £10 e/w on Swincombe Flame and a bit on the Pricewise pick, Swing Bowler. Ruby Walsh further demonstrated his versatility on board the four-time Mares' champion, holding her back in amongst a packed field, and biding his time. Now, I don't know if he got the tactics absolutely spot on here or not, but I was calm and assured until it seemed Ruby had left it too late to get out into the open and urge Quevega on. He doesn't thrash at horses like many other jockeys, instead Ruby seems to connect with his animal, and this ride was reminiscent of the most in-depth interrogations Big Buck's has been subjected to on the rare occasions he gets cross-examined by his inquisitors. Quevega put her hoof on the racing bible and under oath, swore to deliver a 27/1 treble to backers of the three big hurdle winners today. Ruby's emotional delight at his trio of day one triumphs was matched only by the humble understatements of his trainer, WP Mullins, who simple stated how grateful he was for being given the opportunity to train these things. Incredible stuff.

Satisfying returns in the Mares' Hurdle as Quevega made history 

Spinning with success, the final profitable moment of the day for this blog came like a serendipitous additional train back home having delightfully dozed off and missed your stop. Already firmly in the green, and with my festival accumulator very much alive, Radjhani Express picked me up from Paradise Parkway and delivered me straight to the front door of my place on Astonishment Avenue. I had some confidence in Sam Waley-Cohen's chances, but at 25/1 (advised yesterday at 28/1), and with little support in the press amongst those who know far more than I do, it was phenomenally satisfying to collect another big chunk of cash at the close of a fantastic fillip-filled festival funday.

£470 profit for the day on Betfair to go with £375 on BetVictor, with about £50 of non-refunded losses elsewhere made it a smashing first day's work

 

Anyway, onto tomorrow.


National Hunt Chase

I honestly have no idea about this one yet! Will have a look in the morning but this was the race I tipped Soll for last year. The money I lost on the first race of day 2 last year saw me spiral out of control and lose about a grand on what we call "Black Wednesday" so I look down the card with a mixture of trepidation as the memories flood back, and also relief that I don't have any very strong fancies. It's an amateur jockey race, and so the first rider I looked for was today's winner Sam Waley-Cohen, but he doesn't have a ride booked - maybe he's busy putting a filling in someone's molar tooth in his dentist surgery? Only Godsmejudge for Alan King and Tofino Bay, ridden by Nina Carberry are jumping out at me at the moment, so I might have a small play on those two.

Neptune

All the talk has been for Pont Alexandre, who provides another opportunity for Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins to extend the lead they are enjoying over their rivals. At 2.58 on Betfair, I'd rather be a backer than a layer to get off to a solid start to the day with what many are calling the nap of the week!

RSA

Right - I'm on a Ruby Walsh / Paul Nicholls jockey / trainer double for the week and I'm going to go for Unioniste here. Boston Bob is being talked up as one who has been tilted for this race, and he will like the ground, but I'm going for the Ditcheat based grey, who wears the same eye-catching colours as another of my favourite horses, Al Ferof. The only other one that jumps out at me is Goulanes, but that's mainly because I immediately associate him with the gorgeous Kate Miller from William Hill, as she tipped him up to me at this same track just a few months ago.

"Queen Mum" - the Champion Chase
Nothing can beat Sprinter Sacre tomorrow. I'm on in my accumulator and think he will follow up last year's Arkle with another display of supreme leaping and rapid accelerating, doing so with that peacock-esque flamboyance that says he really knows he's bloody good. Mail de Bievre to follow him home at 5.2 for a place on Betfair looks good to me. I'm just glad Finian's Rainbow is nowhere to be seen.. he might be under the weather, but I'm not a fan and don't think he deserved this prestigious title last year when he got the better of Sizing Europe amidst all the "do-we-jump-don't-we-jump?" in the closing stages of the race.

Coral Cup

Pendra - half way down the weights, running off a mark of 139, figures of 1-112, AP McCoy desperate to get his first win of the week, odds of 17/2 available - done. Black Thunder for a place as an additional selection for Mr Nicholls at 7/1 on Betfair seems a reasonable price. He couldn't win when 9/2 favourite off the same mark of 145 when he had a claimant (Harry Derham) on board at Kempton in January but that is the only time he's finished outside the top 3 since his career began, you'll get a return if he finishes in the top 4 here, and the last time he was victorious was out in the west country on the softish left-handed undulations of Chepstow, not dissimilar to the conditions at Cheltenham in the morning.

Fred Winter and Bumper
No selection yet - it's been a long day and I need some rest.. but with the 2m Bumper featuring Joseph O'Brien riding for his father aboard Shield, chamion of the flat Richard Hughes saddling up on Sgt Reckless for legendary trainer Mick Channon, and Graham Lee chasing down a staggering 1000th win under rules with Caledonia (a 100/1 shot), there's a lot to consider in what many would usually write off as an end-of-the-afternoon donkey derby.

Phew..  I think Leyton Orient's win at home to Portsmouth tonight really took it out of me!

MORNING UPDATE:  I've backed Caledonia for the Bumper and, in the Coral Cup added another target - Ericht: trained by Nicky Henderson,  his jockey takes a massive 10lbs off a horse already only carrying 10-10 and with form figures of 1711, his last three rides being taken by Barry Geraghty and the one before that.... by today's jockey Gary Derwin.  I was delighted to see last year's Palphabet "Jumps Jockey of the Year" Brendan Powell Jr getting a win in a similar profile in yesterday's JLT with light-as-a-feather Golden Chieftain. 

Enjoy.