The Master is Back and Confident - Back him for the Masters with Confidence

On the eve of Augusta, with the Masters 2013 app downloaded, the William Hill Golf Betting Podcast digested, and the merits of contenders debated, the bets are decided.

Essential Listening

As I've discussed before, I follow Steve Palmer in the Racing Post, have a good look at Jeremy Chapman in the Racing Post and Plus, and add into that the insight provided by the podcast boys, who often highlight key stats and posit thoughtful theories.



So with that in mind, the Palphabet Portfolio for the next four days looks thus:



Headline Pick - Tiger Woods: £200 at 9/2 Betfred; £100 e/w PP

Betfred went 9/2 about the four time Masters champ earlier in the week and a few other firms followed.  Stan James were top price in the market, meaning they had to match Fred "hopefully he'll get" Done until this evening, when they clipped him into 4/1.  Paddy Power offered the same price, but have the added advantage that they pay 6-places each-way, should you wish to cover yourself if he doesn't triumph.  Some bookies are also refunding losing bets if Tiger and/or Rory McIlroy win, so it's worth shopping around for deals.

Betfred Slip Posing on a Perfect Masters App Picture

Betfred Stake Split Each Way with PP

I had a huge win on Tiger in the WGC Cadillac early in March, when he was sent off at a price as Blue Monstrous at the famous course at which he has repeated romped home: 11/1.  These odds grossly underestimated his majesty around Doral and I believe both his game, and his temperament are now sufficiently balanced to suggest he can find familiarity in his prior successes at Augusta as he did in Florida a few weeks ago.

Thoughtful as always, the WH Podcast boys pointed out that the fairways at Augusta are backcombed in the same way as a balding man might sculpt his hair back across his bonce.  This is significant in golf, less so in male grooming, as the "carry" a player can achieve off the tee means his ball is less likely to meet friction as it attempts to gain extra roll distance.  Steve Palmer rates power as the key attribute for success at Augusta, hence his picking of Keegan Bradley and Dustin Johnson, and it is reassuring to see Tiger Woods and DJ right up there at the top of the "carry" stats, with Tiger rated the best on tour: http://www.pgatour.com/content/pgatour/stats/stat.02409.html

Colsaerts is one I strongly DON'T want to win this weekend.  I've picked a lot of golfers to have onside and I think Nic has a solid game, evidenced by his Ryder Cup performance last summer (another time Betfred offered a cracking deal - 2/1 Europe to win the tournament).  In the Europe vs USA spectacle, in two rounds of fourball matches, Colsaerts made 11 birdies and one eagle and was as unflappable as that bird of prey is flappy.  His lack of track experience, however, puts me off.  He's a debutant here so I'm reluctantly leaving him out of the punting pack.  Talented Dane Thorbjørn Olesen is another first-timer that I will watch with trepidation if he starts getting hot.  His recent injury, whiplash sustained in a car accident, will surely be enough to stop him driving his way to success?  Sorry.

Best Supporting Act - Louis Oosthuizen: £60 win at 34 on Betfair

I've supplemented this outright bet with £50 on the exchange matched at 7.8 for a top 5 finish.  After missing his first three cuts in the Masters, I had Louis to win it when sent off at 90/1 last year before Bubba beat him in a playoff after Mickelson fell away in the closing stages and I don't want to miss out on any place money again this time around.  That memorable albatross on the par-5 second hole, "Pink Dogwood", was one of Sky's top 10 all-time Masters shots.  A beauty indeed it was, although for me Tiger's touch around the 16th green on his way to the 2005 title still gives me goosefistpumples and gets my vote.

Louis has the power to set himself up for eagles and birdies on the longer holes and, although recent form reads 32/CUT/33/CUT/10, he won the Volvo Championship in his native South Africa on the European Tour this season and is subsequently still ranked 6th in the world, behind Snedeker, Donald, Rose, McIlroy and our top pick, the Tiger.


Antepost Fancy - Graeme McDowell: £25 at 61.6 on Betfair

Backed him for this tournament the same weekend Tiger won the Cadillac.  G Mac had three eye-catching consecutive rounds of -6, -5 and -3 before closing on Sunday with a disappointing even par round to finish tied third with Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and "Lefty" Phil Mickelson, who closed with a stunning -8, a decent -3 and an ordinary -1 respectively.  The last of that trio, though, Big Phil, is another I am fearing this coming weekend.  In the past five years his record in the Masters reads third last year, 27th, 1st, 5th, 5th.  Much like Bubba, who I have backed, Phil's shot shaping is ideal for Augusta, and both have demonstrated unbelievable shots from the trees in recent years to clinch their green jackets.

Since letting the runner-up spot slip away in Florida, we've only seen McDowell play once.  He ended up 45th at the Arnold Palmer, which was again won by Tiger at a course he loves, Bay Hill.   When he hasn't missed the cut at Augusta though, and he did in 2011 and 2010, G Mac has been there or thereabouts, with a 12 and a 17 against his name.  His accent is practically American, he seems happy and confident and unlike Donald, Westwood and Poulter, he is a Brit with a major under his belt.  The price seems to offer a decent each-way prospect.

Best of the Rest

When Jeremy Chapman AND Steve Palmer fancy a 200/1 outsider, you simply have to take heed.  When that contender, another South African, leads the European Tour's "Race to Dubai", has the 3rd best scoring average out there (behind Woods and Sned) and has a win and a 2nd place against his name this term then you'd be crazy not to chuck some cash down.  The chap in question, Richard Sterne, is begging to be backed, with Paddy Power's additional each-way place firmly coming into play.


The staking plan is completed with bets on 2011 USPGA Champion Keegan Bradley; huge hitting Dustin Johnson; last year's winner Bubba the Blubber (did you see his press conference yesterday?) and consistently competitive Hunter Mahan, who credited himself with a runner-up cheque in the recent WGC Matchplay tournament.
 

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 1

I'm not one to use the term "literally" lightly.  But I can honestly say this: never before have I metaphorically embarked upon a voyage across the symbolically stormy seas towards Cheltenham with such wind in my make-believe sails, figuratively speaking. 

I have, you see, had a weekend of punting successes, beginning with the Premier League of Darts on Thursday night, and concluding with the WGC Cadillac Championship at Doral yesterday that has seriously, literally given me the confidence to walk on water with this week's wagers.

Here's the summary of profit, although please deduct about £150 from this due to laying a bit of Tiger off on Betfair, and losing on a few top 10 golf bets:



A £150 both teams to score double, MvG vs Adrian Lewis 180s, a Sandown/Wolves Lucky 15 & a 6pt e/w monster on Tiger at Doral boosted my bet365 balance to over £3k - plenty of ammunition for the festival

My fondness for bet365's customer services has increased in harmony with my account balance over the past few days too.  Their telephonists and online-chat agents have provided me with answers to my questions regarding payouts and bonuses, leaving me feeling warmth towards them.  So it is with a small hint of guilt that I placed a fivefold for the week today that will undoubtedly make them regret the day they let me open an account with them (that was in December when their attractive odds about Sergio Garcia and Thongchai Jaidee in the Iskandar Johor Open led to my £200 deposit being matched by the firm, who then had to pay me out on both of those golfers at 4/1 and 16/1 respectively).  Forgive me for sounding smug, but can you pick many holes in this bet?

This fivefold pays around 360/1

But bet365 aren't the only bookmaker to feel sorry for this week, although they also have their Channel 4+1 offer, which rewards punters holding winning bets of 4/1 or higher on televised festival races with a free bet in the next televised race - an offer which gives plenty of value for siding with non-favourites in most races.  Paddy Power are leaving themselves extremely exposed by returning losing bets in tomorrow's Stan James Champion Hurdle if Hurricane Fly wins, and he is favourite to do so. 

William Hill are paying 5 places for your each way stabs in the Supreme Novices, a race in which there are some mammoth prices of 500/1 being quoted about a couple of the "rags" and meaning your horse only has to finish about half way up the field to ensure you get some kind of return.  With attractive options in the shape of Dodging Bullets, Champagne Fever and Puffin Billy threatening the supposed procession of My Tent or Yours and Jezki, and with the infamous regularity of short priced favourites getting turned over in the festival's curtain raiser, it's got to be worth taking on the JP McManus duo at the head of the market with one of the traditional firms, or by laying them on Betfair, who are waiving commission fees for tomorrow. 

Victor Chandler will refund losing bets on the same race up to £50 by crediting your account with a free bet you must stake before the end of the week.   If you win, you win... if you lose, you get the chance to win again - the poor bookies / exchanges are going to go broke in their quest for your betting business aren't they?

Maybe! With bankers like Quevega, Sprinter Sacre and potentially Simonsig and Bobs Worth (I'm not so sure about the latter two), there's every chance that the bookies' generosity in refunding monies and paying out half way down the field will be compounded by good old-fashioned high-rollers trying to win two-and-a-half-grand off a 10-grand stake (in the case of the Champion Chaser elect anyway).  Upon watching last year's Arkle, and forwarding to the leap about 2 minutes 10 seconds into this clip, I added Sprinter Sacre to my fivefold for the week without hesitation.

 

I had a great first day at Cheltenham in 2012, but a torrid Wednesday.  I am hoping for a less bumpy ride this year, and so I'm quite happy going with four or fivefold bets, using Lucky 15s and Super Yankees to spread the risk and prolong the fun, staking relatively confidently due to a fortunate finding of form but not getting too carried away where I'm not too sure, most notably in tomorrow's Arkle duel of Simonsig vs Overturn and the extremely competitive Champion Hurdle, although the various offers listed above mean I will have a bet of some kind!

 

Day 1 advice therefore is:

 

Supreme Novices

Lay: My Tent or Yours on Betfair

Back: Champagne Fever (either e/w with William Hill for 5 places, or with Victor Chandler, to get your money back if you lose)

 

Arkle

Watch Simonsig vs Overturn and enjoy it!  I was a fan of Overturn but the ground has me worried.  If I had  to bet, I would favour Overturn still at the prices - I think PP are going 4/1 in the morning

 

JLT

First big handicap of the meeting - a juicy one and I've just noticed Quantitativeeasing appear in my inbox thanks to my AtTheRaces.com tracker.  I've made a note asking "AP on board?" and yet I see that Barry Geraghty has the ride, with Champ taking Nadiya de la Vega as his preferred pick.  Bazza G says the following about JP McManus's "secong string" horse on his ATR blog: "I’d have been happier if the ground had been better because those conditions suit him. But he does seem to be coming to himself and he has now dropped to 1lb lower than when we were last successful."

I'll have a good look at this in the morning I think! 

 

Champion Hurdle

What a treat we have here!  Loads of contenders, three former champions (Binocular, Hurricane Fly and last year's victorious Rock on Ruby, who sports blinkers for the first time tomorrow) and the exciting Countrywide Flame, who I had at 45/1 for last year's JCB Triumph Hurdle and who I have backed antepost for this race at around 13/1 (having had some at 20/1 last month but most over the Christmas period at 11/1 before Darlan blew him away into fourth when he went off 6/4fav for the Christmas Hurdle).  Paddy's money back if Hurricane Fly wins looks tempting so I'll be going for Zarkandar to give Paul Nicholls his first win of the festival (incidentally I also think is worth backing the champion trainer to beat Henderson and Mullins this week at 7/1 as Nicholls has a fair few opportunities, particularly in some of the less glamourous races)

 

Cross-Country Chase

15 year-old A New Story finished runner up in this last year at 20/1 and is best-priced 20/1 to win it tomorrow.  Carrying 10-4 off a mark of 135 and with jockey AP (not that one - this is Mr AP Heskin) taking three pounds off thanks to his claim, it is worth a romantic couple of quid each way.  As Paul Kealy warns in today's Racing Post festival special though, "bear in mind that last year's ground was rock-hard compared to what the runners will face tomorrow".

 

Mares' Hurdle

Quevega is in my Super Yankee as above and without the presence of her male counterpart Big Bucks is probably the banker of the week.  Une Artiste to finish behind her.

 

Novices' Handicap Chase

The last race of the opening day and I've seen The Druids Nephew being tipped up all over the place today so will have to get on!  Sam Waley-Cohen takes the reins of Radjhani Express at the top of the weights, but takes off a handy 5lbs via his claim as an amateur jockey.  His ride at Kempton on heavy ground looked professional enough to me, albeit at a much lower mark of 129, and at 28/1 with Bet Victor is more than a speculative each way bet.  He comes from the same sire, Presenting, as festival favourite Denman and my personal weekend hero Soll, who contributed to the £700 lucky 15 win above and gave me impetus for the week ahead.

 

Best of luck - see you on the other side of the roar!  I cannot wait.

 

Who Will Rain Supreme in Testing Augusta Conditions?

Last year, Luke Donald prepared for the Masters by winning the par-3 tournament the day before the main event got underway.  This year, he eschewed the opportunity to defend that title, reasoning that the greens on the shorter course just don’t afford the opportunity to familiarise oneself with the famously undulating and idiosyncratic greens on the championship course.

Padraig Harrington took the warm-up trophy home yesterday, but play was abandoned after a torrential downpour soaked Augusta, GA. The weather forecast tells a story that’s as difficult to read as one of those glass-like putting surfaces:

All of a sudden, the conditions come into play in a significant way.  It’s got me slightly worried about my bets for the 2012 Masters Champion:

Is the coveted Green Jacket waterproof?

Luke Donald 14-1 4pts e/w with Ladbrokes  – win portion of bet refunded if he finishes runner-up to Tiger Woods.  I actually placed this bet in a high-street shop, something I rarely do as the punters normally scare me more than betting with "real" money.  I had a pleasant exchange with the clerk behind the protective glass and had no problem getting my bet on (despite reading about bookies refusing to take certain bets in Tipster Form's recent hall of shame http://tipsterform.com/boylesports-hall-of-shame/ )

Luke Donald 14-1 3pts e/w with Paddy Power – win money back if Tiger triumphs and paying out place money on 1-2-3-4-5-6.

Worth pointing out that those two offers are exceptionally attractive - kudos to the respective firms' marketing departments.

On Betfair:

To win – Tiger Woods at 6.4 3pts; Justin Rose at 36.07 2pts; Fred Couples at 240.88 ½ a point

Top 5 – Tiger Woods at 2.24 1pt; Justin Rose at 8 ½ a point; Fred Couples at 28 ½ a point

I'm hoping the long weekend will give me an opportunity to do a Cheltenham-esque blog diary (despite not being at the event!) and allow me to expand on why I have made the above selections.  I think most of them are pretty self-explanatory and I've been encouraged by Jeremy Chapman in the RP and the William Hill podders Mike Grenham and Dave Kelner, who all seem bullish about Luuuuuuke.  Steve Palmer's choices are all 35-1 and bigger, and he fancies one of last year's T2 Australian contenders in the shape of Jason Day, who will be worth keeping an eye on.

I also layed the draw in the Sri Lanka vs England 2^nd test with a 4pt stake at 4.3 on Betfair, giving a liability of £330.  Sri Lanka’s under-par first innings total should be surpassed by England today and hopefully the irregular bounce on this pitch will mean we can take a few wickets and win.  England are currently trading at 1.5 and I will be hoping to lay a decent amount of them at around 1.3 to eliminate some of that exposure....which will free up funds to get stuck into rounds 3 and 4 of the golf!