A profitable day was
enjoyed yesterday, £430 fuelling my journey via rail up to Liverpool, where a particularly
tasty curry was enjoyed at Albert Dock eatery East Z East.Not sure what that Z is all about but the
food and service were excellent and the leftovers have been enjoyed for a
raceday breakfast this morning.
Booze
Views
The views from our
city pad afford us sights of the north docks, across the vast body of the River Mersey
towards the Wirral.A pleasant
vista.But that is nothing compared to
the treat in store for my ever-so-slightly-smaller-than-average eyes later this
afternoon.Sprinter Sacre is out and
about today and anyone who has the opportunity to clap their mince pies upon
this cocky animal should savour and relish the chance.Having said that, stepping up in trip over
fences to 2m 4f in the Grade 1 Melling Chase, and priced at 1/3 versus game contenders Cue Card, Flemenstar
and perhaps Finian’s Rainbow (if he’s back to 100%), he will have to have his
not inconsiderable wits about him.What
a delight this will be for national hunt racing fans all over the land this
afternoon.
We are intending to
get to the track nice and early, and hopefully walk the course, so I’ve just
taken a few snapshots of my bets for today to illustrate some thoughts.Have a good one and, ladies of Liverpool,
watch out – the Palphabet pals are in town :-/
2.00 – Grade 2
Novices’ Hurdle
Going to get back onside with MTOY after his failure at Cheltenham. Small field and much lesser company means he is a short but fair odds-on price. Added to an acca.
2.30 – Grade 2
Novices’ Chase
Laying Dynaste and backing Pricewise tip Sea of Thunder. Seems slightly incongruous with my comments about My Tent or Yours above, since Dynaste is 2/1 against, but he was rather unimpressive in March and so I'll take him on.
3.05 – Grade 1
Melling Chase
Flemenstar, if he is on point, is capable of a big run over this trip, and is a BIG price to get the better of Sprinter Sacre. I once heard Dan Skelton say that he thought Flemenstar was undoubtedly a 2-mile horse, but he has been shown on the other side of the Irish Sea to stay the longer trip and I know Tom Segal was sweet on him as a potential Cheltenham Gold Cup prospect. Conversely, Sprinter Sacre IS a proven 2-mile horse and is stepping into the unknown here. When Frankel stepped up to 1m 2f, I was in no way skeptical that he would be as dominant at 10 furlongs as he was over 7 furlongs or a mile. I stuck hefty wagers down at short prices without a second thought. There is a hint of doubt with Sprinter Sacre though, so whilst I've added him to my Lucky 15, I'm laying him in the outright market. This race has got us all thinking, but it's certainly got us all drooling too.
3.40 – The Topham
Handicap Chase
Backed four in this one. Segal tipped two in the paper this morning at big prices - Last Time D'Albain, ridden by a winner from yesterday - Bryan Cooper (who partnered First Lieutenant to victory in the Betfred Bowl); and Mister First, tipped at 50/1! Spoylesports would only let me have £1.50 each way on that, but the lovely layers at Bet365 allowed me to have my full regular point on - top bookie! Backed Palphabet favourite Chance du Roy and also got Tartak on side.
4.15 – Sefton Novices’
Hurdle
I love Rebecca Curtis. There, I've said it. On At Fishers Cross with a Rod Laver on Master of the Sea.
4.50 – Listed Handicap
Hurdle
You know that scene in Happy Gilmore? "Mista Mista"? It's hilarious - check it out. In honour of that, and AP McCoy's ability to get the best out of a weight-carrying nag, I'm backing Get Me Out of Here to give us a quick JP / AP double.
Impressed with Harry Derham's ride on board Salubrious when winning the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham, I'm back on today in the acca above. Raised from 141 to 149, He's carrying 11-3 this afternoon but Harry takes off a handy 5 via his claim as a conditional jockey.
My mate Wardrop was sitting next to me talking up former Champion Hurdler Punjabi too, so whilst I was on Betfair, I gobbled up the 46s available to backers, just to spite him - hilarious scenes ensued, as he was left with a paltry 44. Many fellow exchange users will surely appreciate the banter?!
5.25 – Bumper
No selection yet - will place a bet trackside, staking accordingly depending on how heavy my pockets are feeling later this afternoon.
Did you know there
are apparently more atoms in a standard glass of water than there are glasses
of water in all of the oceans on Earth?Given the amount of rain that has fallen on Cheltenham over the
Christmas period (68mm), and Chepstow on 22nd December alone (31.98mm
– the highest December daily fall for 8 years), I think that fact could be
rewritten:there are more atoms on west
country/Monmouthshire racetracks than there are glasses of champagne consumed
in a big-race winners’ enclosure. Or something.Postponed due to more moisture than your average otter’s pocket, the
Coral Welsh National has been rescheduled for this Saturday, and I have had a
few thoughts that could, with a bit of good fortune, help get the New Year’s
bubbly flowing for Palphabet readers.
I have talked up this horse before (6 minutes into this clip). I have backed him and been
disappointed before. I have also been encouraged by him before. And before I go
any further, I’ll give you his name: Soll. A close relative of Denman (not
quite a half-brother as the progeny collide on the sire Presenting’s side, rather than on that of the
mare), this Derrick Mossop-owned and Jo Hughes-trained beast has made
the switch over from Willie Mullins’s yard in Closutton, Co Carlow, to a stable
in Lambourn where the close attention of a female guv’nor who trains only a 'Norfolk-handful' of thoroughbreds over the sticks (she has six jumpers) seems to be paying dividends. The change in scenery
from illustrious to relatively unknown may seem strange to some, but the owner
specifically wanted a woman running a focused operation to take over the
day-to-day training schedule of Soll as he felt the horse could benefit from a
bit of extra TLC, and Hughes is said to be waxing lyrical about the latest
recruit to her team.
The ears of the pundits have been pricked too. Soll was the pick of a couple
of presenters on The Morning Line as he vied for the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup at
Newbury off a mark of 140. The very impressive Henderson Cheltenham Gold Cup
favourite, Bobs Worth went on to win that race but the depth and quality of the
field was plain to see. Tidal Bay gallantly carried top weight and achieved a
runner-up place, was raised from an offical rating of 166 to 169 and went on to
win the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on the 27thDecember, under one
of three festive rides from Ruby Walsh that, collectively, madeAlan Sweetman's Ireland's Eye
well up with admiration. Sweetman wrote in his Racing Post Christmas Highlights piece yesterday: “In all my time watching racing I don't think I've witnessed three
successive races won in such a manner by the same jockey”. He called it a
"feat worthy of comparison with anything in the wider sporting world, as
awe-inspiring as a Lionel Messi hat-trick, a sequence of birdies by Rory
McIlroy or three aces in a row from Novak Djokovic". Praise indeed, although I think Alan missed the opportunity to parallel the joy brought about by Walsh's equestrian talents with the ecstacy felt by Leyton Orient fans on account of current golden boy Moses Odubajo's sweet feet. Ahem, I digress..
In the process of winning the Lexus, Tidal Bay saw off Gigginstown House Stud owned First
Lieutenant, a 2 ½ length runner-up to Bobs Worth in last year’s RSA and himself
placed third in the Hennessy, and the much-revered Flemenstar, who some have been quick to
write off over the three-miles attempted in Ireland on Friday but who Tom
Segal has said via the Racing Post’s website, has actually enhanced his
credentials as a staying chaser. Whether that thing goes for the Champion Chase
and gives Sprinter Sacre a proper challenge; the Ryanair and wins a
mid-distance test that Peter Casey’s son Francis described as a non-entity
(upsetting Cheltenham chairman Robert Waley-Cohen in the process); or the Gold
Cup for the most prestige; the fact that he got beaten by a head by an
unbelievably likeable horse-jockey partnership should be taken in the Christmas
spirit rather than bah-humbugged away like a failed new year’s resolution.
Anyway, that’s Flemenstar.
A Palphabet favourite, Wayne Hutchinson, causes 14/1 Welsh National
shot Universal Soldier to catch the eye but I’ve noticed this evening that Soll
has been tipped by Ben Hutton on the Racing Post’s Welsh National preview
video, and see on www.oddschecker.com that he’s
one of the most fancied bets anywhere in sport tonight.
Soll seems to be on punters' radars ahead of the weekend
There’s clearly some
serious attention on this big chestnut gelding. Why not have a watch of his performance at Newbury, focusing on his jumping, fluency in running and without worrying too much about him fading away on testing ground on this seasonal reappearance.
Mark Howard makes some encouraging comments about Soll in his National
Hunt bible One Jump Ahead. Howard says this:
“Soll won over hurdles for John Quinn prior to joining Willie Mullins
in Ireland. The Presenting gelding provided Mullins with his 100th
winner of the season last term (fastest ever in Ireland) when scoring at Down
Royal in February. Brought down at Cheltenham [in the 4m National Hunt Chase],
he has only run three times over fences and is held in high regard by his
connections. “He’s a big baby but hopefully he has a big future,” remarked
his owner Derrick Mossop, while Mullins stated in March: “He’s a big staying
type and a horse we like a lot.” There could be a major staying handicap to
be won with him this season.
In a handicap, you need a horse who can show improvement above his
mark. I’ve just got off the phone to the owner’s son, Dan Mossop, who couldn’t
contain his excitement about this “unexposed giant of a horse” and thinks he
can run well above his mark of 139 under a weight of 10-12.
A few things points to summarise why Soll represents value for
Saturday:
1. To win a race like
this, you need to be a strong jumper, with plenty of stamina. Soll’s jumping is
excellent and stamina is a key attribute.
2. His trainer, Jo
Hughes, has been full of praise for his improvement since his decent
performance in the Hennessy.
3. That Hennessy was
very strong. For Tidal Bay (runner-up) to be raised by the handicapper from 166
to 169 and still win the Lexus shows the strength of the Newbury race
4. Front page headline
grabber and AP McCoy mount Teaforthree won the 4m festival race in which Soll
was brought down, and has figures of 2311 at Chepstow, justifying favouritism.
But Teaforthree had a warm up race at Cheltenham in November before finishing
sixth in the Hennessy, just over 6 lengths in front of Soll, who wasn’t really
match fit after a long lay-off since March, when he wasn’t right in himself.
Yet Teaforthree heads the market for Saturday at a best-price 3/1 now, whilst
Soll is available at four or five times the price. It would not surprise me one
iota if Tom Segal makes Soll his Pricewise pick when the Racing Post is
digitally published tomorrow night.
I’ve had a few stabs on Betfair and Bet365 at prices ranging from 18/1
down to 14/1 with stakes that might be considered atomic to some hardcore
punters but are fairly gigantic by my standards, and I hope to be able to buy
more than a few glasses of water with the winnings come Saturday night. Let’s
hope this enthusiasm seems more cosmic than comic by Sunday morning.
Before I begin, Chance du Roy runs in the 4.25 at Haydock today – I’m on 1pt e/w at
4-1.
Now, If you haven’t already seen Matt Chapman’s
interview with Anthony Knott on At The Races, I implore you to view it:
Knott: farmer, one-time winning jockey, and now an
owner who backs his own horse Hunt Ball with rhetoric and roubles alike, is
everything we love about racing here at Palphabet.His boundless enthusiasm for the sport has
seen him recently jump on board Hunt Ball after victory at Wincanton and he
famously celebrated his only win as a rider by punching the air and
gesticulating to onlookers.This is all
well and good, only Anthony chose to do it with a furlong and a half left to
travel on Wise Men Say, with other horses just a length or two away and whilst
adopting one of the most unconventional horse riding techniques I have ever
seen...Well, it had taken him 28 years to
get a winner.Again, I implore you to
watch this race (fast-forward to 4:00 into THIS clip and then watch Nick Luck
try to make sense of it all in the post-race interview on RUK) - hilarious!
Going back to that ATR interview, Chapman failed in
his attempts to coax out of Knott the race into which Hunt Ball will next be
entered.Seeing as I’m attending Ladies’
Day and the Grand National Saturday at Aintree in a few weekends time, I
certainly hope we see him in the flesh there, so that I can follow Knott and “lump
on” again:
I'm pleased to say I was on Hunt Ball on Day 1 of the Festival
As I type, sponsor’s spokesman Mark
Pearson is on talkSPORT coyly mutering about HB’s chances in the Aintree
Betfred Bowl - they haven't chalked up a market for it yet - whilstwww.oddschecker.com shows he is as short
as 20-1 for next year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. The handicapper has raised him over 70lbs, more than five stone since he started his winning spree and he continues to deliver.. only time will tell how long this can go on!
***
Eschewing a good think, and instead going with my gut again, I’ve put together my nominees for the Palphabet Alpha Moments of the
2012 Cheltenham Festival. Please post your answers or alternatives in the comments box below - I did try to embed a proper poll, but I couldn't work out how to do it :-(
Ride of the Festival
1.Barry Geraghty on Riverside Theatre – Ryanair Chase
2.Ruby Walsh on Big Buck’s – Ladbrokes World Hurdle
3.AP McCoy on Synchronised – Betfred Gold Cup
Shocker / Grimace of the Festival
1.Cotton Mill’s refusal to jump the second-last Neptune hurdle
2.The Cross Country Course Deaths
3.The final-fence debacle in the Champion Chase
Greg Wood's Blogis worth a read on some of these matters - it wasn't a bad week so don't wish to overplay the dramas...
Man / Gelding of the Festival
1.Nicky Henderson
2.Barry Geraghty
3.Synchronised
Woman / Mare / Filly of the Festival
1.Quevega
2.Alice Plunkett
3.Eve McCoy (after telling her dad to "pull his finger out")
Moment of the Festival
1.Anthony Knott’s celebration – “Bugger the cows!”
2.Spontaneous applause for a champion – Kauto Star being pulled up in the
Gold Cup
3.Sprinter Sacre’s emergence as the most exciting chaser in racing
The dust has settled, the souvenir festival
magazines have been published, the BBC has lost the rights to cover major horse
races, and the time is right to have a glance through the legs of the fading
hangover horse, as last week is pulled up to a spontaneous and heart-felt round
of applause.
Ruby Walsh & Kauto Star prepare for battle
Having laid Long Run and followed Tom Segal in on
Synchronised, I was never overly concerned about the winner of the Gold Cup on
Friday as I had pretty much all eventualities covered (the fact that Nicky
Henderson’s stable boy didn’t add the favourite in the 3.20 to his acca spoke
volumes and I was happy to oppose The Dentist’s horse at 2-1).I just wanted Kauto Star to come back
unscathed.
Yes, having placed a 4pt wager at around 6-1, I would
have preferred him to have gone all
the way and cross the post ahead of his rivals, but the second it was realised
that he was being led away from the track there was a wave of distinct emotion.First, momentary deflation could be felt amongst
the throngs of onlookers packed inside the enclosures.This gave way to a palpable sense of relief (accompanied by the impromptu clapping) before finally, I think I felt a twinge of pride. Proud to
have been present to see him bowed out by the horseman who knows him best.
Ruby Walsh demonstrated in two very different rides
this week why he is such a lauded jockey – on Big Buck’s, who seemed to be
cajoling his rider: “go on Rubes.. prove
to me that you really want to win this fourth World Hurdle” – and then
on Kauto: “come on Rubes.. I’m not right
here fella.. let me bow out with dignity.”
The fact that AP McCoy went on to give Synchronised
such a gritty, determined, talented and vein-bulging push to beat The Giant
Bolster and Long Run up the hill, felt to me like a fitting tribute to Kauto and
to Ruby. Festival Gods seemed to be saying "If the people’s horse isn’t able
to finish the race, let’s give the people another white-faced horse to
love."
Synchronised ain’t as pretty as
Kauto, and AP’s ride was a real street brawl to watch, but it showed heart, and
too many heads had backed Long Run for my liking. Emotion and devotion won the Gold Cup on
Friday in many ways.
Here’s how I finished the week from a gambling point of view.Relatively satisfied with the final figures, particularly after the run of losing bets on what I’m now dubbing “Black Wednesday,” there are a few lessons that have been learnt and some “what-ifs” to consider.Overall, though, I went with my gut, and loved every minute of it.
-£33.65 on Horse Racing over the festival. Noteworthy profits were banked thanks to the 45-1 winner (0.5pt each way) in the Triumph Hurdle on Friday, Countrywide Flame. I only got a text with the tip on the day so couldn't blog it in advance - sorry! A close second to this was Sunnyhillboy, Tom Segal's tip in Thursday's amateur riders' handicap chase. I also had a 10pt bet on Big Buck's to claim that fourth World Hurdle. At 1.91 on Betfair, I thought this represented both great value and also provided the racing highlight of the week.
Offers like Paddy Power's "money back special" in the Arkle meant that Sprinter Sacre could be cheered on readily as the bookmaker refunded my losing bet on Al Ferof. Sprinter Sacre's performance was undoubtedly one of the moments of the week, and whilst many turf accountants' race day deals made me think that backing horses in the ante-post markets is becoming increasingly less attractive, I doubt Mark "The Couch" Winstanley will agree on this occasion. He advised SS a couple of months ago, recommending a 10pt maximum stake at a monster price!
Apart from £20 lost in cash on the tote at the track, and including this return of £65, my total P&L for the week came to about -£58 to goodness only knows what stake. As a wise man once told me: turnover's vanity, profit is sanity.
At the track: Palphabet pals Westdrop aka The Alpha (left), Norbet (right) and yours truly.
Westdrop tucks into our hosts' famous fry-up on festival Friday morning.
The Racing Post did a magnificent job of capturing the essence of the festival with some breathtaking front-page splashes. Norbet and I were pleased that the local outlets had stocked up with copies of the 'paper.
As the festival draws to a close, the Palphabet gang contemplate what to do next. Synchronised seems smug at the enormity of his day's work, and back at the guest house, a little kratooie seems sad to have missed out on proceedings.
Jaegerbombs are ordered and consumed at the Racing Post party (sadly I couldn't find any of their journos to harrass, so pestered Mark Langdon on Twitter instead) and in the morning the tweed is packed away until next time.
The Festive Season & a Retrospective Glance at 2011
Did any of you heed my Boxing Day treble?
"Why not back the following in a triple.. all PF Nicholls runners at Kempton on Boxing Day:
Silviniaco Conti 4/1 Rock on Ruby 15/8 Kauto Star 4/1"
Hope not - as it would not have paid out - but it was mightily close on a Boxing Day that will long live in the memory for reasons other than bubble & squeak and turkey sandwiches.
The three Grade 1 races were all fiercely contested, treating the packed galleries to spine-tingling finishes in the very short run-in to home after the last flight.
Grands Crus rewarded those of us who have stuck with him this season (http://palphabet.blogspot.com/2011/11/crus-ing-into-jump-season.html), showing that the step up from Novice Hurdling to Novice Chasing is not asking too much of this powerful grey, who jumped gracefully under Tom Scu and held off Silviniaco Conti.I backed the 1-2 in this race with a toteexacta and a reverse at the track, and also had profitable returns using the same tactic in the Christmas Hurdle.
The highlight of the day (and arguably, year) was obviously seeing Kauto Star regain his King George title. Column inches in national newspapers and racing press alike have done more justice to l ‘Extraterrestrial than I could here, so I’ll just post a few pictures and direct you to this tweet of mine (right).It shows Kauto leaping eight from home like a gazelle on springs and the collective intake of breath from the packed Kempton gallery will ring in my ears for many a year.
Finally, I’m going to use this blog to summarise some personal highlights of 2011, many of which I have experienced first-hand.They’re in no particular order, and are subject to debate, but for one reason or another they have heightened my emotions throughout this memorable year of sport, betting and betting on sport:
Frankel – The Freak was the feature on the flat in 2011 and I had increasingly large stakes and ever diminishing odds in the Guineas, the Sussex “Duel on the Downs” and on Champions’ Day at Ascot, which was one of my best days out of all time! There are loads of pics from the day here: http://palphabet.blogspot.com/2011_10_01_archive.html
Nice & close to the action at Champs Day
Denman – we got a cat this year and named him after “The Tank”- seeing him finishing a gallant second to Long Run in the Gold Cup was a beautiful sight.The horse that is, not my cat.
Denman enjoying his retirement
Kauto Star – as mentioned above – what a fantastic return for this high class chaser – he may be less of a “horse for the people” when compared to his next door neighbour, but Kauto paid for Christmas!
Don't fret, Mr Christie, I'm sure you'll be seeing me again
The Gold Cup at Cheltenham featuring the above two Ditcheat superstars was a classic, and seeing those two bomb up the home straight, albeit behind the Dentist & Long Run, left all the respective connections feeling like winners on the day.We’ve already booked our tickets and accommodation for the 2012 festival, which is only a few months away.
The honours board at Cheltenham - this McCoy cha(m)p seems fine
Barzalona – his celebration on Pour Moi was so iconic that Ruby Walsh replicated it on board Kauto Star on Boxing Day!I listened to this race on the wireless whilst at Lord’s watching England v Sri Lanka’s test match and it sounded like Andre Fabre’s colt was out of the picture.He touched over 30-1 in running and came from the back to steal it, but Mickael’s arrogant fist-punch, standing up in the stirrups would’ve left most thinking he’d romped home.He’s obviously had his fair share of photo finishes in the past.
We all know "that picture" of Mickael but I like this shot, from Edward Whitaker's superb "Beyond the Frame"
Barcelona V Man United – Barcelona available at evens to win this contest in 90 minutes still looks like a great shout if you were on.I enjoyed it in a Spanish bar in Shoreditch with my Barcelona shirt on – a masterclass in football, firmly putting Fergie et al in their place again.
Journalists beware...
I will find you
Meeting Henry Winter & Guillem Balague at The Emirates v Barcelona – two doyens of sporting journalism took the time to pose with me – I don’t know how often they get stopped by fans of their work!
Ashes – this seems so long ago now but the start of the year was characterised by late nights and red eyes as Essex boy-wonder Cookie showed the Aussies how to bat.
Sachin – I honestly thought that I would see him get his 100th ton this summer, and was sure, with tickets booked for Lord’s, the Oval and Edgbaston, that I would witness it in the flesh.He was looking in great shape in the midlands with an ominous strike rate of 66.66 before stepping on his stumps for 40.http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/aug/13/sachin-tendulkar-india-england
Tendulkar takes guard at Edgbaston. Little did those stumps know what he would do to them later.
Orient 1-1 Sheffield United http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/15319619.stm it may have just been a relatively early-in-the-season league fixture to most, but to this blogger it represented a confirmation that our poor start to the campaign was unfortunate, rather than indicative of a deep malaise.Down to 10 men, having had left-back “Champagne” Charlie Daniels sent off by idiotic official Oliver Langford, veteran striker Kevin Lisbie snatched the draw for the Os in the 6th minute of 2nd half stoppage-time.A pitch invasion nearly ensued; saliva was allegedly projected in the direction of the Blades’ dugout.As savoury as one of Brisbane Road’s infamous Chicken Balti Pies, I’m not going to defend that behaviour, but I leapt out of my seat and jumped around like a maniac and gyrated in a way reminiscent of the Kassam Stadium, Oxford, May 6th 2006, when I was chased off of the pitch by a police horse.
"He's got no hair but we don't care" - Slade celebrates the point against Sheffield United as it all kicks off in E10
Judd Trump – OK, so my punt on him to win Sports Personality of the Year was foiled by all except those nice nominators from Nuts magazine (or was it Zoo?) but I had sizeable returns from him making the final of the World Championship in 2011 and going on to claim the UK title just a few weeks ago, beating Rocket Ronnie on the way.This playboi is one for the future, no doubt, and yes, I’m talking about SPOTY.
Palphabet finds itself in the rarest of scenarios - a green book