Cheltenham 2012 - Day 2

P&L after day 2 hides some very close bets.. honest!

Henderson - what's not to like?

Barry and the Henderson stamp a Big Foot on the Fest

Ignoring Henderson's strong challengers proved a downfall today but I was a whisker away with Get Me Out of Here, who gave £96.17 back to the pot but would have returned over £800 if he'd have managed to get home ahead of Son of Flicka. Elsewhere Soll, my tip of the week fell early on, along with stablemate Allee Garde. Simonsig, who I decided to lay, duly won for Henderson, who also took the RSA with Bobs Worth and the Champion Chase with Finian's Rainbow.  Nicky then had a 40-1 winner in the Fred Winter with Une Artiste, as I was lamenting another well-backed Alan King horse (Vendor).  It got me wondering - why don't I back Nicky Henderson horses very often?... and I think it's due to something buried deep in the realms of my subconscious...

Now, I'm certain that Paul Nicholls doesn’t hold Nicky Henderson in anything but the highest esteem.  I know Henderson, a former Champion Trainer and seemingly top bloke, is well loved in the horse racing fraternity.  He is clearly a fantastic trainer, with more festival wins under his belt than any of his current competitors and boasts a stable full of talented horses, worthy winners over all manner of mileage and obstacle. Yet, on television, I’m sure I've seen PFN appear to blank NH on a couple of occasions – at both Haydock and Kempton Park – after Kauto Star twice inflicted recent defeats on Gold Cup chaser Long Run.   So I have taken a position of harbouring a totally irrational dislike towards the Lambourn trainer, and hardly ever feel compelled to back his horses.

Now, after a day like today, I have two choices – I can either maintain a bitter and unfounded aversion towards contenders from Henderson's yard, or I can adapt to the environment.  I certainly don’t hate the bloke, I just like Nicholls, love Kauto Star and Denman, and found it more than slightly amusing when I saw the Ditcheat man seemingly turn his nose up at Nicky’s advances for a congratulatory handshake. 

I look back after today and wonder if there was anything in it – have any of you seen the footage from Haydock? – Paul Nicholls comes bounding up the gangway towards the winners' enclosure, delighted with Kauto Star’s return to brilliance.  Henderson approaches to say “well done fella” and gets, well, gunned!  

In retrospect, I think to myself “that was a bit out of order Paul!”  I find myself feeling sympathy towards Henderson, his big wet eyes resembling a likeable amphibian, just showing some affection for his victorious competitor on the day.  It’s making me think that tomorrow, when I would usually shy away from backing Henderson's horses, I should consider that he is absolutely flying at this year’s festival, and act accordingly.

Therefore, although I'll stick with Medermit in the Ryanair (in which Henderson's Riverside Theatre leads the market), first up is the Jewson Novices' Chase, in which Peddlers Cross is favourite, but where Solix is priced up at 9-1, and I'm going to do it - show some respect for Henderson and the pink-armband-wearing Barry Geraghty - and back the leading jockey / trainer combo with a pt e/w.

Our Father  (5-1) is my choice for the 3m Pertemps Final and is well fancied.  Then after the Ryanair comes the World Hurdle.  Watching this in a Cheltenham pub last year was one of my most memorable sporting events ever.  Ruby dropped his whip and using the reins alone, powering Buck's up the hill to beat off a genuine challenge from Grands Crus.  The choice for tomorrow is still there to be made: either lump on big-style for a 16th consecutive Big Buck's win ...or go with Oscar Whisky - trained by Nicky Henderson and undoubtedly a class act - who is trading at 5-1.  That may be a leap of faith too far! 

Thinking Hector's Choice or Notus de la Tour in the 16:00 handicap and will be interested to see what Pricewise says in tomorrow's paper.  Finally, I'm really looking forward to see if, like last year with Junior, there will be another monster gamble in the 16:40, and if Sir Henry Cecil can win the charity race again - does anyone even know if he has a runner? Plato's victory in the "Derby" was a nice way to finish St Patrick's Thursday a year ago.

If anyone's in Cheltenham tomorrow night - do say hello!

DP

Cheltenham 2012 - Day 1

Palphabet Off to a Flyer with all but the Hurricane on a Whirlwind First Day

Cinders & Ashes, Quevega and Sprinter Sacre provided Palphabet with a successful start to this year’s Cheltenham Festival and a profitable first stab at prospective previews rather than just retrospective reviews.  Unlike Sprinter Sacre's brilliance, these tipping triumphs won’t last long, so I’m going to relish it this evening and keep looking forward with hopefully just a hint of smug permeating into this piece.

Cinders & Ashes and Hunt Ball both gave decent returns, whilst Quevega paid out £74 from a 6pt stake

The biggest damage to the coffers was done today by lumping £135.43 on a Hurricane Fly / Big Buck’s double at 2.64 on Betfair, and is yet to be reflected on the above P&L.  I did have a place bet on Rock on Ruby though, so the Champion Hurdle didn’t leave me too cold, and I was impressed again with Overturn’s fierce gallop.  Binocular showed signs that he would get going, but his inconsistencies continued.  Despite not tipping it in advance, I had a 1pt stake on Hunt Ball (and a smaller, losing bet on Harpsy Chord) that means I can go into tomorrow with a fully loaded gambling gun.

http://www.palphabet.blogspot.com/2012/02/go-with-your-gut.html

Tomorrow’s bet on Soll (now 8-1) drew enough attention when I put him up at 12s to be chosen by the nice people at sportingbet.com to form part of their “Cheltenham Chat” podcast (which you can hear here).  I have been lumping on Mullins's son of Presenting for the past couple of months and cannot wait to see him bring home the booty over the stamina-testing 4m Amateur Riders' Novices' National Hunt chase, which is first up on day two of what is now trending on Twitter as #CheltFest.

UPDATE 14-03-12 ... Read my guest blog preview of this race on Scott Ferguson's www.sportismadeforbetting.com here

With two of my antepost selections gone (Alan King's Invictus and Fingal Bay), I will eschew the complicated forecasts tomorrow, stick to Grands Crus (6-4 from 9-4 advised) in the RSA Chase and go for another of King's entries in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle: Battonier (9-1).

UPDATE 14-03-12 ... With Battonier declared a non-runner this morning and the Betfair selection voided, I have put my 1pt e/w on Make Your Mark instead. Davy Russell's ride for WP Mullins offers good value at around 10-1 and I've rather go there than Simonsig, about whom I have my doubts.

As Somersby opts for Thursday's 5f longer trip in the Ryanair Chase, tomorrow's Queen Mother Champion Chase price about Sizing Europe (11-10 as advised a month ago) is no longer available, but the 20-21 currently offered on the Betfair exchange is only a fraction shorter, and should be hoovered up.  I'll also have a bit of Kauto Stone for a place at around 11-4. 

In the later contests on Wednesday afternoon, AP McCoy is worth backing on board Jonjo O'Neill's Get Me Out Of Here in the Coral Cup at 12-1 - after Hunt Ball's performance today I won't be put off by the weight!  I also like Brendan Powell, who claims 5lbs atop the Dr Richard Newland trained Act Of Kalanisi (20-1).  Vendor (4-1) is the one to go for in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle, another Alan King horse who Choc Thornton put up as his nap of the week, but Kie jumped off the page at me available at 59-1 so I will have a small wager each way on this one of McCain's, who will have a fired-up Jason Maguire on board after his win in the Supreme today. 

Exhausting, exhilarating, and only just beginning!

DP

Wayne - King is good for you

Readers of my recent festival preview will have noticed that Alan King featured throughout, and I was delighted to hear Tom Segal picking out Wayne Hutchinson as one of his favourite jockeys when I finally got around to watching his Morning Line appearance on tape this fine Sunday dawn.

http://www.palphabet.blogspot.com/2012/02/go-with-your-gut.html

At Chepstow yesterday, Hutch provided King with a 5-1 winner in the shape of Oh Crick, who was sporting blinkers for the first time at a track where his trainer had drawn a blank in 45 previous attempts over the past 843 days. I didn't know all this when I placed a 1pt stake on the horse, and this was King's only runner at the Monmouthshire course yesterday, but it gives me a thrill to discover such facts in retrospect.

Elsewhere, Grumeti showed again that when he doesn’t end up on his nose, he wins.  With a rating of 154 and on the up, Grumeti, under Choc Thornton, went off clear favourite and duly dispatched challengers in the Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle over 2m.  Paul Nicholls’s Dodging Bullets provided the only real opposition inside the home straight but Grumeti was cruising and proved the 1.51 Betfair SP correct.

King currently boasts a 51% RTF figure, meaning that across the past fortnight, just over half of his runners have Run to Form (within 5lb of their RP rating) and the newspaper felt fit to highlight his success in Saturday races worth £10k or more with this eye-catching headline:

All in all, I'm delighted with my position on Medermit for the Ryanair, excited about the prospects of West End Rocker (and to a lesser extent Hold on Julio, who I have not backed ante post) and hope King, and Wayne Hutchinson's good fortune continues as the festival draws inexorably closer.

DP

Minsk Mix Up

Oh.. before I forget.. isn't this funny - Minsk has been being talked up as one to watch since switching from long, flat races to jumps, and I had a point on him for the JCB Triumph Hurdle.  Baby Mix disappointed last time out but I thought 23 looked big about the grey gelding, so I backed him ante post yesterday too.  Minsk failed to deliver at Kempton and is now double the odds I got him at, whilst Mix (one-third of a Saturday afternoon Paddy Brennan threesome) has been cut to 7-1.  The favourite is now the aforementioned Alan King trained Grumeti (6-1), who I have not had anything on!

Go With Your Gut

I read recently that Tom Segal, the legendary prophetic inhabitant of the Racing Post’s Pricewise pages doesn’t like to spend excessive time poring over the form when advising punters where to put their pound.

"X" Marks the Spot - Quickfire Tipping from the Gut

Taking a similar approach, and after a few indicative national hunt trials, I turned to page 24 of Sunday’s ‘paper and quickly marked out my favourite ante-post fancies for the forthcoming few fortnights, as I prepare for back-to-back festival Fridays at Cheltenham and Aintree.  I've then gone through the selections and made some brief notes in an attempt to justify my initial gut feelings. Let me know what you think.

Cheltenham

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Cinders and Ashes (10-1) Donald McCain's novice hurdler got off to a winning start to his career on the NH flat scene before coming 5th in last year's festival Bumper.  Reversed the form with an impressive nine-length victory over Nicky Henderson's Keys at Aintree before Christmas and whilst Steps to Freedom's stats of 1F1-0111 look ominous, I'm comfortable with the fact that Cinders jumped off the page at me.

Arkle – Sprinter Sacre (6-4) This horse is in my head because Mark "Couch" Winstanley tipped him up in the RP a few weeks back for a characteristically low-key 10pt stake at a much bigger priced.  SS has impressed ever since.

Champion Hurdle – Hurricane Fly (4-5) / Binocular (8-1) exacta - Like many, I have the hots for H-Fly, who looks a beauty and has beaten all who stand in his way in this contest that would give "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" a run for its money with regards to lead actor & supporting cast.  A son of Montjeu, Fly's figures of 1111-11 make this look like a foregone conclusion but I like the value play of adding the inconsistent 2010 Champion Hurdler Binocular to a [reverse]exacta following his impromptu win at the weekend.

Mares’ Hurdle – Quevega (8-11) She's the female version of Big Buck's - banker.  Having said that, I will place an unmatched bet and let it ride on the exchange just in case Voler La Vedette is around the 28-1 mark leading by a few lengths going over the last.  Unaccompanied is heading straight to Aintree and gives this mare affair the miss.

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle & Albert Bartlett  – Fingal Bay (9-2 and 7-1 respectively) The unbeaten Fingal looks a good prospect for the future and I backed him a few months ago for both these races following success in November at Cheltenham.  I still think these prices are fair although the shorter price for the Neptune suggests that's where trainer Philip Hobbs is aiming him so I'm glad I got him at 6.4 on Betfair.

RSA Chase – Grands Crus (9-4) / Invictus (12-1) exacta - Assuming Crus doesn't line up on Friday for the Gold Cup, you have to fancy last year's World Hurdle runner-up to continue the flawless example of jumping showed on Boxing Day at Kempton Park.  Pair up the short price about Grands Crus with in-form Alan King's Invictus, who was immediately cut for this race from 33-1 and 50-1 in places to as short as 6-1 now but still available at 12s.

Queen Mother Champion Chase – Sizing Europe (11-10) I had Henry de Bromhead's defending champion at 9-1 last year and like Hurricane Fly & Big Buck's, he looks likely to regain his crown this year.  Cost Sportingbet a fortune when winning the Tingle Creek in December, forcing the bookmaker to return all losing bets (I got my £50 back on Wishfull Thinking and stuck it all on Kauto Star for the King George, which was enjoyable).  He has the hoodoo over most of his rivals but I might go for a value bet on Somersby or add him to a forecast with Sizing.

Ryanair – Medermit (9-1) à Let’s not forget, as well as Invictus, Alan King also had wins this weekend with Lovcen and Balder Succes, who can be backed at 30 on Betfair for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.  Everywhere I look I seem to see King's name, so I was ecstatic to be awoken by the news this morning, just hours after I put it on Twitter, that Tom Segal also picked Medermit as his Ryanair ante-post selection.  A case of Pricewise following Palphabet perhaps?? Cue price crash.  His performance at Ascot this weekend was gallant, recovering well from a mistake he ran Riverside Theatre all the way to the line, and I've got cold feet about backing Jimmy Nesbitt's headline grabber at reactionary prices.  Rubi Light has been hacking up on Irish turf that wouldn't look out of place on a 1970s second-division football pitch, and a lesser horse would have crashed out after landing on top of a Gowran Park fence on  Saturday.  There's no doubt Rubi has plenty in the tank, but with a dry, sunny March in store, I think he'll end up as a BF in the Ryanair at Cheltenham.

Will Minsk "dig" deep for the JCB Trophy?

Triumph Hurdle – Minsk (7-1)  Balder Succes (14-1 for this race) is probably 30 for the Novices’ as King needs to decide whether to run him over longer distance against more experienced company, including stablemate Grumeti (10-1 here).  I had Grandouet for the JCB Triumph last year after a decent couple of warm-up experiences, and was left disappointed but I remember reading a few people, including Segal, saying Minsk was one to follow for the season.

World Hurdle – Big Buck’s (8-13) I don't need to say anything about Buck's.  Even if he picks up the Ditcheat cough, he'll be absolutely fine come St Patrick's Thursday.

Already Advised

Gold Cup – Kauto Star (7-2) recommended at 4-1 - Long Run did nothing [apart from win] to convince me to betray my heart and believe!  The bookies seemed quick to cut a bit of their liability on Kauto too

National Hunt Challenge Cup – Soll (8-1) recommended at 12-1 - R Walsh & WP Mullins are both bullish about this 7 year-old chestnut gelding, who provided Willie with the fastest ton of seasonal winners in Ireland when chasing over 2m4f at Down Royal earlier this month.  I've had 2pts e/w at 12s, a bit more at 9s and would like to think that Soll, sired by Presenting, will bring home this 4-mile cup for half-brother and recent retiree Denman

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/down-royal-soll-brings-up-mullins-milestone-in-style/982938/

Aintree

Grand National – West End Rocker (20-1 on Ladbrokes and Betfair) - When the weights were announced for the National, I looked down the list and straight away fancied West End Rocker.  As already mentioned, I have subsequently had Alan King's name ringing around my ears.  WER didn't just win the trial over the Grand National fences in December, he absolutely destroyed Niche Market and the rest of the field in the Becher Handicap Chase with Wayne Hutchinson on board.  Granted, the ground was heavy, but I like the price and wonder if Robert Thornton might take him round in April, especially since King's only other entry, Hold on Julio, won under Hutch from chasing veteran Neptune Collonges at Sandown during Choc's injury-induced absence.

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-weights.php

Well, that certainly took longer to write than it did to go through the markets putting "Xs" next to names of nags! This time in three weeks, we'll know whether or not some of these instinctive picks have prevailed. Looking forward...