Punchestown Day 2: May The Ricc Get Riccer

On many occasions this past year I’ve found myself singing the theme tune to early 1990s American sitcom Hangin’ with Mr Cooper.  Whilst that show, however, centres on zany NBA player-turned-substitute-teacher/gym coach Mark Cooper, my singing of the catchy number (which I didn’t realise until now was recorded by hot quartet En Vogue) has been precipitated by a Bryan Cooper win over the sticks.  I think he may well have two or three today and, despite the cough, I’ve been warming up the vocal chords.

Another one who has two solid chances this afternoon is Richard Johnson.  In the era of AP McCoy, Johnson has never had the opportunity to be champion jockey but has consistently performed, has over 2000 winners in the bag and, along with Barry Geraghty is one of only two active riders who have claimed all four championship races at the Cheltenham Festival.   The perfect, patient, peach of a ride he gave Pateese a couple of weeks ago at Ffos Las illustrated his talent for horsemanship and I've had my eyes peeled for a Dicky J opportunity to get stuck into ever since.  So with that in mind...

4.20  - Gassin Golf - Johnson's horse is in receipt of 7lbs from market leaders Call me Bubble and Viconte du Noyer, Mullins's double-handed attack on the 2m hurdle.  Gassin Golf's trainer, Richard Lee has not entered a nag over jumps in Ireland for more than a decade.  Jockey booking and trainer decision adds significance to this one.

4.55 - Seefood - Cooper's first booking of the afternoon on board Aintree Mersey Novices' Hurdle placer who finished behind Gary Moore's 22/1 outsider that day, Ubak.  Dropping back in trip here, if the ground quickens up I think he might be worth an each-way bet. 

5.30 - First Lieutenant - this is a really difficult one to fathom out.  Following his Ryanair runner-up finish and subsequent Aintree Betfred Bowl victory, I don't want to abandon Cooper's horse now.  Without Bob's Worth, this race could be won by pretty much everyone (apart, perhaps, from Chicago Grey and Quito de la Roque, but even he is C&D here after novice win two terms ago).  Will also be each way on Kauto Stone who, with 88 days' rest, is the freshest contender going in at a big price.  Tom Segal has picked Richard Johnson's massive opportunity of the day: Captain Chris. He's also recommended backing Riverside Theatre, both of these selections seem to like it flat and right-handed.  Long Run has still never finished outside the top 3, but he's a bit short in the betting isn't he?  Might just lay Sir Des Champs, who laboured over the finishing line up the Cheltenham hill, and get the rest of the field on side.... but all the trends say Sir Des will win!  So tricky... Paddy Power will refund bets if you come second to Sir Des Champs though.. could be an option.

6.40 - Much easier!  Rubi Light I like, but gives a lot of weight to the rest of the field.  I'll be backing Mr Cooper's Canaly and having a saver on Nadiya de la Vega.

7.15 - sentimental one in the bumper really - Overwater - half-sister to Soll and the trainer expects more from her, although the jockey booking of Miss K Walsh adds a little bit of more serious anticipation.

Finally, I also like Donald McCain's Kie, who's running in the four-horse 4.35 race at Perth this afternoon,

Yesterday was OK.  I got a bit carried away after Zest for Life’s victory, using the profit to weigh in on Champagne Fever in-running after Rule the World was ruled unable to continue (reports subsequently emerged of a non-critical pelvic fracture).   The Spinter Sacre / Sizing Europe exacta provided an inevitable boost and simply added to Henderson’s beast’s untouchable spectre.   My £82.50 Lucky 15 gave back £30.

Champagne Fever is owned by recently “retired” Barclays banking boss Rich Ricci, an appropriately-named chap some of whose horses seem to have appropriated names, like cork-popping Fever himself and Fatcatinthehat.   He owns the favourite in today’s 4.55: Ballycasey.   Searching a winner yesterday, I backed Ricci’s Moyle Park, who brought back £80 of winnings for me and £15,447 for him.  He’ll be able to buy a new cat and a new hat with that.  Happy retirement Rich! 

Aintree Day 2 - Ladies' Day

A profitable day was enjoyed yesterday, £430 fuelling my journey via rail up to Liverpool, where a particularly tasty curry was enjoyed at Albert Dock eatery East Z East.  Not sure what that Z is all about but the food and service were excellent and the leftovers have been enjoyed for a raceday breakfast this morning.



Booze

  



Views

The views from our city pad afford us sights of the north docks, across the vast body of the River Mersey towards the Wirral.  A pleasant vista.  But that is nothing compared to the treat in store for my ever-so-slightly-smaller-than-average eyes later this afternoon.  Sprinter Sacre is out and about today and anyone who has the opportunity to clap their mince pies upon this cocky animal should savour and relish the chance.  Having said that, stepping up in trip over fences to 2m 4f in the Grade 1 Melling Chase, and priced at 1/3  versus game contenders Cue Card, Flemenstar and perhaps Finian’s Rainbow (if he’s back to 100%), he will have to have his not inconsiderable wits about him.  What a delight this will be for national hunt racing fans all over the land this afternoon.
 

We are intending to get to the track nice and early, and hopefully walk the course, so I’ve just taken a few snapshots of my bets for today to illustrate some thoughts.  Have a good one and, ladies of Liverpool, watch out – the Palphabet pals are in town :-/
 

2.00 – Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle

Going to get back onside with MTOY after his failure at Cheltenham.  Small field and much lesser company means he is a short but fair odds-on price.  Added to an acca.

 

2.30 – Grade 2 Novices’ Chase

Laying Dynaste and backing Pricewise tip Sea of Thunder.  Seems slightly incongruous with my comments about My Tent or Yours above, since Dynaste is 2/1 against, but he was rather unimpressive in March and so I'll take him on.

 

3.05 – Grade 1 Melling Chase

Flemenstar, if he is on point, is capable of a big run over this trip, and is a BIG price to get the better of Sprinter Sacre.  I once heard Dan Skelton say that he thought Flemenstar was undoubtedly a 2-mile horse, but he has been shown on the other side of the Irish Sea to stay the longer trip and I know Tom Segal was sweet on him as a potential Cheltenham Gold Cup prospect.  Conversely, Sprinter Sacre IS a proven 2-mile horse and is stepping into the unknown here.  When Frankel stepped up to 1m 2f, I was in no way skeptical that he would be as dominant at 10 furlongs as he was over 7 furlongs or a mile.  I stuck hefty wagers down at short prices without a second thought.  There is a hint of doubt with Sprinter Sacre though, so whilst I've added him to my Lucky 15, I'm laying him in the outright market.  This race has got us all thinking, but it's certainly got us all drooling too.

3.40 – The Topham Handicap Chase

Backed four in this one.  Segal tipped two in the paper this morning at big prices - Last Time D'Albain, ridden by a winner from yesterday - Bryan Cooper (who partnered First Lieutenant to victory in the Betfred Bowl); and Mister First, tipped at 50/1!  Spoylesports would only let me have £1.50 each way on that, but the lovely layers at Bet365 allowed me to have my full regular point on - top bookie!  Backed Palphabet favourite Chance du Roy and also got Tartak on side.

 
4.15 – Sefton Novices’ Hurdle

I love Rebecca Curtis.  There, I've said it.  On At Fishers Cross with a Rod Laver on Master of the Sea.

4.50 – Listed Handicap Hurdle

You know that scene in Happy Gilmore?  "Mista Mista"?  It's hilarious - check it out.  In honour of that, and AP McCoy's ability to get the best out of a weight-carrying nag, I'm backing Get Me Out of Here to give us a quick JP / AP double. 

Impressed with Harry Derham's ride on board Salubrious when winning the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham, I'm back on today in the acca above.  Raised from 141 to 149, He's carrying 11-3 this afternoon but Harry takes off a handy 5 via his claim as a conditional jockey.

My mate Wardrop was sitting next to me talking up former Champion Hurdler Punjabi too, so whilst I was on Betfair, I gobbled up the 46s available to backers, just to spite him - hilarious scenes ensued, as he was left with a paltry 44.  Many fellow exchange users will surely appreciate the banter?!

5.25 – Bumper

No selection yet - will place a bet trackside, staking accordingly depending on how heavy my pockets are feeling later this afternoon.

 

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 4

The fall of the Berlin Wall; the end of Queen Victoria's six-decade reign; the final episode of The Wire; reaching your destination after a satisfying automobile journey along a favourite route... all things eventually finish.  Yesterday this was evident in stark brutality, and as I assess my Bet365 balance (showing a £200 loss on First Lieutenant, and a £25 loss on a FL / Dynaste "banker" double), as well as my Betfair P&L this morning, it makes for a similar reading experience as one of Melanie Phillips’ Daily Mail columns: sickening.

Yuck

Muck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have never been trackside at Cheltenham’s “St Patrick’s Day” but it was an otherwise enjoyable experience.  Slightly shorter queues for bars and toilets (particularly after blagging it into the club enclosure) and Irish barmen in the Guinness tent seemingly more inebriated than their awaiting punters, World Hurdle day offered a pleasant alternative to Gold Cup Friday, which brings us to today. 

The amphitheatre of National Hunt Racing

 

I write this from the B&B in which we are staying  (I say B&B – it’s a family home that we have been taking over in increased numbers for the past few meetings at National Hunt HQ.. Essex raiders, if you will) and without the luxury of having much time at my disposal to think up my usual witticisms and anecdotes, I’ll get on with my selections for Friday.  Whilst I am hoping to end the week on a high, it would be wrong to look at yesterday and get too bogged down; ultimately it’s been a cracking week of punting and just being in the presence of Far West’s connections today is sure to make it an extremely pleasurable and memorable fourth day at my third festival.  Looking forward..

Triumph
Far West - been backing him for ages and, knowing one of the part owners as closely as I know my own member, it would be a delight to see the juvenile hurdler deliver at around 6/1 today.  Nicholls is bullish, and said in this morning's Betfair column: "I personally would say that we set the form standard going into this race".

County Hurdle
Ted Veale - heard some decent noise about this one, who carries just 10-6 with Bryan Cooper on board.  Cooper was atop Benefficient, slayer of Dynaste, yesterday and then stood in on First Lieutenant after reports that the unfortunate Davy Russell had spontaneously punctured a lung - get well soon Davy!

Albert Bartlett
At Fishers Cross.  The delightful Rebecca Curtis saddles this in-form bay gelding to provide that elusive 2013 festival win for AP McCoy, who I've just seen has been given the ride on Sir Des Champs in the Gold Cup following Davy Russell's withdrawal and the subsequent but unrelated non-running of Sunnyhillboy.

Gold Cup
Backed, and then layed a bit of Silviniaco Conti antepost after his recent winning of the Denman Chase at Newbury.  Nicholls is happy with SC and whilst there are plenty of doubters out there, he's said he's "confident that Conti goes into the race fit and well and on an upward curve".  Backed Sir Des Champs nearly a year ago and now buoyed by the booking of the 17-time consecutive champion jockey.  Going to take Long Run each-way too for the Waley-Cohen / Henderson crew - can't ignore that animal.  Now watch Bob's Worth make all and duly sluice up!

Foxhunter
Salsify.  Small bet on a fancied nag as part of a multiple - see below.

Martin Pipe
Act of Kalanisi for Dr Richard Newland, who I found out recently is involved in orthopaedics, much like myself!  AoK is ridden by 6-pound claiming jockey Christopher Ward (incidentally the name of one of my favourite watch brands).  Also backed Salubrious - PFN and Harry Derham (3).  As well as putting David Pipe's grey Gevrey Chambertin in a big acca, I also like Oh Crick and Shooters Wood too.. let's see how carried away I get at the track later!

Grand Annual
Last bet of the week.. well last festival bet anyway.    I was on Alderwood at 20/1 in last year's Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle and I'm going to get back involved today too, albeit only with a 0.5pt poke.

Finally, I've had a monster accumulator and Super Heinz with bet365.. pays out about a million-to-one.. fine.

 

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 2

All aboard the Champagne Express! I must admit I feel drunk on the bubbles and sick with the thrill of the high-octane power inflicted by Messers Mullins and Walsh today. Whilst trackside observers were fortunate enough to witness Ruby Tuesday in the serenity of the Cotswolds, many of us had to slip out of our regular routines to find a television in order to be able to witness the most hotly anticipated day of the national hunt racing calendar, and it has a physical effect on us!

Returning to work after a selection has won or lost can be equally as difficult. Shaking, sweating and unable to focus on your professional tasks; colleagues looking at you with suspicion and confusion. Even if you haven't had a gamble, watching or listening to those contests today was enough to distract even the most casual of racing fans.

Ruby Walsh performed at his absolute best this afternoon. the three winning rides upon Champagne Fever, Hurricane Fly and Quevega perfectly highlighting the harmony with which Ruby connects to his equine partners in very different ways.

Champagne Fever made all the running in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, holding off the JP McManus pair of Jezki and the favourite, My Tent or Yours, their iconic green and yellow hoops flanking the pink of Champagne, and rewarding followers of yesterday's blog with a 6/1 return to kick-start proceedings or reward for laying MTOY at around 2/1.

£375 profit to start the day - BetVictor would have refunded £50 of my
stake had Champagne Fever failed to get the corks popping

Ruby knew: "he jumped like a stag" were his poignant words to Alice Plunkett in the immediate aftermath of a race in which his TurfTrax times were at least a couple of seconds quicker than his ride in the second grade 1 hurdle of the day, the championship race - the Champion Hurdle.

But the ride given to Hurricane Fly in the more prestigious contest was the antithesis of Ruby's earlier victory. In the build up to the race, I got caught up in the excitement and recalled with more clarity (thanks to the channel 4 replay) the disdain with which the Fly recently won the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. Having backed Zarkandar with the Paddy Power offer, I took Hurricane Fly on Betfair at 2.74 and also backed the forecast with bet365. A mile into the race I was worried. Hurricane Fly seemed uncomfortable in his stride, was off the bridle and being asked to give more and was jumping with clumsiness. But somehow, Ruby calmed the 2011 champion hurdler down and found some rhythm. Sidestepping the fallen Grandouet and back in control, he hunted down Rock on Ruby and the impressive (and young) Countrywide Flame, who I had antepost and topped up on each-way before the off, with the precision of a marksman. It was a breathtaking finish to an extraordinary race.



Last-minute money on Hurricane Fly with Betfair...Money back on losing Zarkandar bet with Paddy Power 

 

Simonsig vs Overturn disappointed in the Arkle, with the grey getting the job done, but with none of the fluency we were expecting, and the brave McCain trained flat and hurdle hero Overturn unable to get Simonsig to tire under the scrutiny of a rapid pace. I let out a small sigh, having laid Simonsig and backed overturn, whilst Backers of Simonsig / Quevega doubles breathed a sigh of relief.  After all, the Mares' Hurdle was a foregone conclusion.. wasn't it?

I quite literally backed the wrong horse.. and layed the right one too

At 1.8 on Betfair, the market didn't seem sure, so I have a £100 on her, with a speculative £10 e/w on Swincombe Flame and a bit on the Pricewise pick, Swing Bowler. Ruby Walsh further demonstrated his versatility on board the four-time Mares' champion, holding her back in amongst a packed field, and biding his time. Now, I don't know if he got the tactics absolutely spot on here or not, but I was calm and assured until it seemed Ruby had left it too late to get out into the open and urge Quevega on. He doesn't thrash at horses like many other jockeys, instead Ruby seems to connect with his animal, and this ride was reminiscent of the most in-depth interrogations Big Buck's has been subjected to on the rare occasions he gets cross-examined by his inquisitors. Quevega put her hoof on the racing bible and under oath, swore to deliver a 27/1 treble to backers of the three big hurdle winners today. Ruby's emotional delight at his trio of day one triumphs was matched only by the humble understatements of his trainer, WP Mullins, who simple stated how grateful he was for being given the opportunity to train these things. Incredible stuff.

Satisfying returns in the Mares' Hurdle as Quevega made history 

Spinning with success, the final profitable moment of the day for this blog came like a serendipitous additional train back home having delightfully dozed off and missed your stop. Already firmly in the green, and with my festival accumulator very much alive, Radjhani Express picked me up from Paradise Parkway and delivered me straight to the front door of my place on Astonishment Avenue. I had some confidence in Sam Waley-Cohen's chances, but at 25/1 (advised yesterday at 28/1), and with little support in the press amongst those who know far more than I do, it was phenomenally satisfying to collect another big chunk of cash at the close of a fantastic fillip-filled festival funday.

£470 profit for the day on Betfair to go with £375 on BetVictor, with about £50 of non-refunded losses elsewhere made it a smashing first day's work

 

Anyway, onto tomorrow.


National Hunt Chase

I honestly have no idea about this one yet! Will have a look in the morning but this was the race I tipped Soll for last year. The money I lost on the first race of day 2 last year saw me spiral out of control and lose about a grand on what we call "Black Wednesday" so I look down the card with a mixture of trepidation as the memories flood back, and also relief that I don't have any very strong fancies. It's an amateur jockey race, and so the first rider I looked for was today's winner Sam Waley-Cohen, but he doesn't have a ride booked - maybe he's busy putting a filling in someone's molar tooth in his dentist surgery? Only Godsmejudge for Alan King and Tofino Bay, ridden by Nina Carberry are jumping out at me at the moment, so I might have a small play on those two.

Neptune

All the talk has been for Pont Alexandre, who provides another opportunity for Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins to extend the lead they are enjoying over their rivals. At 2.58 on Betfair, I'd rather be a backer than a layer to get off to a solid start to the day with what many are calling the nap of the week!

RSA

Right - I'm on a Ruby Walsh / Paul Nicholls jockey / trainer double for the week and I'm going to go for Unioniste here. Boston Bob is being talked up as one who has been tilted for this race, and he will like the ground, but I'm going for the Ditcheat based grey, who wears the same eye-catching colours as another of my favourite horses, Al Ferof. The only other one that jumps out at me is Goulanes, but that's mainly because I immediately associate him with the gorgeous Kate Miller from William Hill, as she tipped him up to me at this same track just a few months ago.

"Queen Mum" - the Champion Chase
Nothing can beat Sprinter Sacre tomorrow. I'm on in my accumulator and think he will follow up last year's Arkle with another display of supreme leaping and rapid accelerating, doing so with that peacock-esque flamboyance that says he really knows he's bloody good. Mail de Bievre to follow him home at 5.2 for a place on Betfair looks good to me. I'm just glad Finian's Rainbow is nowhere to be seen.. he might be under the weather, but I'm not a fan and don't think he deserved this prestigious title last year when he got the better of Sizing Europe amidst all the "do-we-jump-don't-we-jump?" in the closing stages of the race.

Coral Cup

Pendra - half way down the weights, running off a mark of 139, figures of 1-112, AP McCoy desperate to get his first win of the week, odds of 17/2 available - done. Black Thunder for a place as an additional selection for Mr Nicholls at 7/1 on Betfair seems a reasonable price. He couldn't win when 9/2 favourite off the same mark of 145 when he had a claimant (Harry Derham) on board at Kempton in January but that is the only time he's finished outside the top 3 since his career began, you'll get a return if he finishes in the top 4 here, and the last time he was victorious was out in the west country on the softish left-handed undulations of Chepstow, not dissimilar to the conditions at Cheltenham in the morning.

Fred Winter and Bumper
No selection yet - it's been a long day and I need some rest.. but with the 2m Bumper featuring Joseph O'Brien riding for his father aboard Shield, chamion of the flat Richard Hughes saddling up on Sgt Reckless for legendary trainer Mick Channon, and Graham Lee chasing down a staggering 1000th win under rules with Caledonia (a 100/1 shot), there's a lot to consider in what many would usually write off as an end-of-the-afternoon donkey derby.

Phew..  I think Leyton Orient's win at home to Portsmouth tonight really took it out of me!

MORNING UPDATE:  I've backed Caledonia for the Bumper and, in the Coral Cup added another target - Ericht: trained by Nicky Henderson,  his jockey takes a massive 10lbs off a horse already only carrying 10-10 and with form figures of 1711, his last three rides being taken by Barry Geraghty and the one before that.... by today's jockey Gary Derwin.  I was delighted to see last year's Palphabet "Jumps Jockey of the Year" Brendan Powell Jr getting a win in a similar profile in yesterday's JLT with light-as-a-feather Golden Chieftain. 

Enjoy.

Coral Welsh National - Value in the Wye Valley

Did you know there are apparently more atoms in a standard glass of water than there are glasses of water in all of the oceans on Earth?  Given the amount of rain that has fallen on Cheltenham over the Christmas period (68mm), and Chepstow on 22^nd December alone (31.98mm – the highest December daily fall for 8 years), I think that fact could be rewritten:  there are more atoms on west country/Monmouthshire racetracks than there are glasses of champagne consumed in a big-race winners’ enclosure. Or something.  Postponed due to more moisture than your average otter’s pocket, the Coral Welsh National has been rescheduled for this Saturday, and I have had a few thoughts that could, with a bit of good fortune, help get the New Year’s bubbly flowing for Palphabet readers.

I have talked up this horse before (6 minutes into this clip). I have backed him and been disappointed before. I have also been encouraged by him before. And before I go any further, I’ll give you his name: Soll. A close relative of Denman (not quite a half-brother as the progeny collide on the sire Presenting’s side, rather than on that of the mare), this Derrick Mossop-owned and Jo Hughes-trained beast has made the switch over from Willie Mullins’s yard in Closutton, Co Carlow, to a stable in Lambourn where the close attention of a female guv’nor who trains only a 'Norfolk-handful' of thoroughbreds over the sticks (she has six jumpers) seems to be paying dividends. The change in scenery from illustrious to relatively unknown may seem strange to some, but the owner specifically wanted a woman running a focused operation to take over the day-to-day training schedule of Soll as he felt the horse could benefit from a bit of extra TLC, and Hughes is said to be waxing lyrical about the latest recruit to her team.

The ears of the pundits have been pricked too.  Soll was the pick of a couple of presenters on The Morning Line as he vied for the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury off a mark of 140. The very impressive Henderson Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite, Bobs Worth went on to win that race but the depth and quality of the field was plain to see. Tidal Bay gallantly carried top weight and achieved a runner-up place, was raised from an offical rating of 166 to 169 and went on to win the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on the 27^thDecember, under one of three festive rides from Ruby Walsh that, collectively, made Alan Sweetman's Ireland's Eye well up with admiration.  Sweetman wrote in his Racing Post Christmas Highlights piece yesterday:  “In all my time watching racing I don't think I've witnessed three successive races won in such a manner by the same jockey”. He called it a "feat worthy of comparison with anything in the wider sporting world, as awe-inspiring as a Lionel Messi hat-trick, a sequence of birdies by Rory McIlroy or three aces in a row from Novak Djokovic".  Praise indeed, although I think Alan missed the opportunity to parallel the joy brought about by Walsh's equestrian talents with the ecstacy felt by Leyton Orient fans on account of current golden boy Moses Odubajo's sweet feet.  Ahem, I digress..

In the process of winning the Lexus, Tidal Bay saw off Gigginstown House Stud owned First Lieutenant, a 2 ½ length runner-up to Bobs Worth in last year’s RSA and himself placed third in the Hennessy, and the much-revered Flemenstar, who some have been quick to write off over the three-miles attempted in Ireland on Friday but who Tom Segal has said via the Racing Post’s website, has actually enhanced his credentials as a staying chaser.  Whether that thing goes for the Champion Chase and gives Sprinter Sacre a proper challenge; the Ryanair and wins a mid-distance test that Peter Casey’s son Francis described as a non-entity (upsetting Cheltenham chairman Robert Waley-Cohen in the process); or the Gold Cup for the most prestige; the fact that he got beaten by a head by an unbelievably likeable horse-jockey partnership should be taken in the Christmas spirit rather than bah-humbugged away like a failed new year’s resolution.

Anyway, that’s Flemenstar.

A Palphabet favourite, Wayne Hutchinson, causes 14/1 Welsh National shot Universal Soldier to catch the eye but I’ve noticed this evening that Soll has been tipped by Ben Hutton on the Racing Post’s Welsh National preview video, and see on www.oddschecker.com that he’s one of the most fancied bets anywhere in sport tonight.

Soll seems to be on punters' radars ahead of the weekend

There’s clearly some serious attention on this big chestnut gelding.  Why not have a watch of his performance at Newbury, focusing on his jumping, fluency in running and without worrying too much about him fading away on testing ground on this seasonal reappearance.

Mark Howard makes some encouraging comments about Soll in his National Hunt bible One Jump Ahead. Howard says this:

“Soll won over hurdles for John Quinn prior to joining Willie Mullins in Ireland. The Presenting gelding provided Mullins with his 100^th winner of the season last term (fastest ever in Ireland) when scoring at Down Royal in February. Brought down at Cheltenham [in the 4m National Hunt Chase], he has only run three times over fences and is held in high regard by his connections. “He’s a big baby but hopefully he has a big future,” remarked his owner Derrick Mossop, while Mullins stated in March: “He’s a big staying type and a horse we like a lot.” There could be a major staying handicap to be won with him this season.

In a handicap, you need a horse who can show improvement above his mark. I’ve just got off the phone to the owner’s son, Dan Mossop, who couldn’t contain his excitement about this “unexposed giant of a horse” and thinks he can run well above his mark of 139 under a weight of 10-12.

A few things points to summarise why Soll represents value for Saturday:

1. To win a race like this, you need to be a strong jumper, with plenty of stamina. Soll’s jumping is excellent and stamina is a key attribute.

2. His trainer, Jo Hughes, has been full of praise for his improvement since his decent performance in the Hennessy.

3. That Hennessy was very strong. For Tidal Bay (runner-up) to be raised by the handicapper from 166 to 169 and still win the Lexus shows the strength of the Newbury race

4. Front page headline grabber and AP McCoy mount Teaforthree won the 4m festival race in which Soll was brought down, and has figures of 2311 at Chepstow, justifying favouritism. But Teaforthree had a warm up race at Cheltenham in November before finishing sixth in the Hennessy, just over 6 lengths in front of Soll, who wasn’t really match fit after a long lay-off since March, when he wasn’t right in himself. Yet Teaforthree heads the market for Saturday at a best-price 3/1 now, whilst Soll is available at four or five times the price. It would not surprise me one iota if Tom Segal makes Soll his Pricewise pick when the Racing Post is digitally published tomorrow night.

I’ve had a few stabs on Betfair and Bet365 at prices ranging from 18/1 down to 14/1 with stakes that might be considered atomic to some hardcore punters but are fairly gigantic by my standards, and I hope to be able to buy more than a few glasses of water with the winnings come Saturday night. Let’s hope this enthusiasm seems more cosmic than comic by Sunday morning.