Punchestown Day 1: Go Bigg on the Gigg

One of the seriously serendipitous side-effects of this chest infection I’m currently suffering is the sleeplessness associated with consistent coughing.   Couple that with anticipation for the beginning of this year’s Punchestown Festival and you get the perfect recipe for early-morning blog writing. 

St G: Character on a Horse

With only next weekend’s Ultimate Celebration Meeting at Sandown remaining on this year’s national hunt agenda proper, it’s almost time to reflect on another exciting year in the sport of kings and queen.  Despite the overpowering patriotism felt at Palphabet HQ today though, on this day of our patron Saint George (himself an accomplished horseman by all accounts), it is vital to keep the emotion of Englishness at bay when looking at this afternoon’s big-race card in Ireland.

Boasting three opening day Grade 1 races, Tuesday 23^rd April looks very much geared up to be dominated by home-trained horses, with the notable and hugely exhilarating exception of English raider Sprinter Sacre.  Nicky Henderson’s superstar travels overseas for the first time, where he is sure to continue answering questions on the track with an exuberant arrogance unparalleled by his peers at present, and a disdain that eclipses even the way in which Jeremy Paxman asks the questions on University Challenge.   

So let’s hope, at the gong, that we can get a few answers ourselves.  The first race of the day is the 3.40 three-mile chase:

Zest for Life at 5/1 isn’t a bet I would be hanging today’s gambling hat on.  The soft ground doesn’t appear to be particularly in the favour of the 2010 winner of this race, whose trainer and track specialist Enda Bolger (19% success rate here from 83 runs) admitted prefers quicker conditions.   At the price though, and with a 7lb claimant on board, Zest is preferred over favourite and stablemate Near Perfection, who is nearer 5/2 in the betting.

4.20’s Grade 1 two-mile novice hurdle sees a mouth-watering rematch of Cheltenham’s Supreme Novice Hurdle.  Winner Champagne Fever and third-place Jezki are back on home soil and looking to take advantage of the absence of My Tent or Yours, runner-up in March and subsequent winner in the lower class novice hurdle at Aintree earlier this month.  

Festival Fillip

Mullins and Walsh got my 2013 festival off to a cork-popping flyer with a 6/1 fillip but I’m going to desert the dream duo today and side with Davy Russell’s Gigginstown House Stud mount, Rule the World at 9/2.  A four-length defeat at the hands of The New One in the 2m 5f Neptune Novices’ Hurdle was form-franked in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle, Rule the World only has a few pounds to find on the two market leaders here, and has beaten an off-colour Champagne Fever in Ireland before.  Ted Veale, a big priced Palphabet winner of the Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, is rated 10 pounds lower than Rule the World so I have to rule him out. 

It's worth pointing out at this stage, that BetVictor.com are giving punters their money back if your horse finished 2nd to a Willie Mullins winner.  Could prove a useful insurance policy here and in the 6.40.

 4.55 Handicap Hurdle:  Looking down the weights at another horse owned by the GHS, Beef to the Heels is my meaty selection here.  Priced at 43/1 on Betfair, 25/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power (who pay five places each-way in this race) and intriguingly only 20/1 with magic sign firm Ladbrokes, who are renowned for their Irish knowledge, I’ll be getting the knife and fork out on this slice of betting beef.  Trained by Gordon Elliott, this course and distance winner is ridden by Miss Jane Mangan, who is 2-3 on him and 6-9 when booked by Elliott.  In a competitive handicap like this, the jockey’s knowledge of her horse is nearly as important as her 5lb allowance.  Nearly.

Still got £12 of this bet unmatched

5.30 Champion Chase:  I see no reason not to follow up the exacta from the Cheltenham Queen Mother Champion Chase with the same bet here.  Sprinter Sacre win, Sizing Europe next.  Could be a similar procession, but Sprinter Sacre has not been treated to the same break as his nearest rival here, so a 20-length demolition job may not be repeated.  Sacre continues to deliver though so who knows – the gap between these two might be even bigger!

Swerving the bumper, where Mullins’s Moyle Park is strongly fancied, the 6.40 Champion Novice Chase is the final Grade 1 of the opening day and Ruby Walsh looks to have a huge chance to extend Back in Focus’s winning run to five races.  Pricewise has selected Dedigout, and with two of my earlier selections adorned in the iconic maroon and white star of the aforementioned Irish racing powerhouse, the Gigginstown House Stud (owned by shrinking violet and Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary), who am I to disagree?  If you read this before 8.30am today, wait until then, when you should be able to get a better price than the 5/1 or 11/2 available right now (some bookmakers agree to hold the price at which Tom Segal tips his horses for about 15 minutes from 8.30am and Dedigout was put up in today’s Racing Post at 13/2).

With a "powerful three-horse assault" on tomorrow’s Punchestown Gold Cup, this could be a big week for the Gigg – they are represented by Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant and Quito de la Roque in Wednesday’s fascinating contest.

*** 

A final word for this fantastic festival - the timings of the races are excellent and more or less allow full enjoyment without the risk of being sacked for diving into a betting shop every half-hour.  Even if I wasn't off sick with this blasted chest infection, I'm still confident I would be able to tuck in with almost weekend-esque abandon.  Enjoy!

 

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 2

All aboard the Champagne Express! I must admit I feel drunk on the bubbles and sick with the thrill of the high-octane power inflicted by Messers Mullins and Walsh today. Whilst trackside observers were fortunate enough to witness Ruby Tuesday in the serenity of the Cotswolds, many of us had to slip out of our regular routines to find a television in order to be able to witness the most hotly anticipated day of the national hunt racing calendar, and it has a physical effect on us!

Returning to work after a selection has won or lost can be equally as difficult. Shaking, sweating and unable to focus on your professional tasks; colleagues looking at you with suspicion and confusion. Even if you haven't had a gamble, watching or listening to those contests today was enough to distract even the most casual of racing fans.

Ruby Walsh performed at his absolute best this afternoon. the three winning rides upon Champagne Fever, Hurricane Fly and Quevega perfectly highlighting the harmony with which Ruby connects to his equine partners in very different ways.

Champagne Fever made all the running in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, holding off the JP McManus pair of Jezki and the favourite, My Tent or Yours, their iconic green and yellow hoops flanking the pink of Champagne, and rewarding followers of yesterday's blog with a 6/1 return to kick-start proceedings or reward for laying MTOY at around 2/1.

£375 profit to start the day - BetVictor would have refunded £50 of my
stake had Champagne Fever failed to get the corks popping

Ruby knew: "he jumped like a stag" were his poignant words to Alice Plunkett in the immediate aftermath of a race in which his TurfTrax times were at least a couple of seconds quicker than his ride in the second grade 1 hurdle of the day, the championship race - the Champion Hurdle.

But the ride given to Hurricane Fly in the more prestigious contest was the antithesis of Ruby's earlier victory. In the build up to the race, I got caught up in the excitement and recalled with more clarity (thanks to the channel 4 replay) the disdain with which the Fly recently won the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. Having backed Zarkandar with the Paddy Power offer, I took Hurricane Fly on Betfair at 2.74 and also backed the forecast with bet365. A mile into the race I was worried. Hurricane Fly seemed uncomfortable in his stride, was off the bridle and being asked to give more and was jumping with clumsiness. But somehow, Ruby calmed the 2011 champion hurdler down and found some rhythm. Sidestepping the fallen Grandouet and back in control, he hunted down Rock on Ruby and the impressive (and young) Countrywide Flame, who I had antepost and topped up on each-way before the off, with the precision of a marksman. It was a breathtaking finish to an extraordinary race.



Last-minute money on Hurricane Fly with Betfair...Money back on losing Zarkandar bet with Paddy Power 

 

Simonsig vs Overturn disappointed in the Arkle, with the grey getting the job done, but with none of the fluency we were expecting, and the brave McCain trained flat and hurdle hero Overturn unable to get Simonsig to tire under the scrutiny of a rapid pace. I let out a small sigh, having laid Simonsig and backed overturn, whilst Backers of Simonsig / Quevega doubles breathed a sigh of relief.  After all, the Mares' Hurdle was a foregone conclusion.. wasn't it?

I quite literally backed the wrong horse.. and layed the right one too

At 1.8 on Betfair, the market didn't seem sure, so I have a £100 on her, with a speculative £10 e/w on Swincombe Flame and a bit on the Pricewise pick, Swing Bowler. Ruby Walsh further demonstrated his versatility on board the four-time Mares' champion, holding her back in amongst a packed field, and biding his time. Now, I don't know if he got the tactics absolutely spot on here or not, but I was calm and assured until it seemed Ruby had left it too late to get out into the open and urge Quevega on. He doesn't thrash at horses like many other jockeys, instead Ruby seems to connect with his animal, and this ride was reminiscent of the most in-depth interrogations Big Buck's has been subjected to on the rare occasions he gets cross-examined by his inquisitors. Quevega put her hoof on the racing bible and under oath, swore to deliver a 27/1 treble to backers of the three big hurdle winners today. Ruby's emotional delight at his trio of day one triumphs was matched only by the humble understatements of his trainer, WP Mullins, who simple stated how grateful he was for being given the opportunity to train these things. Incredible stuff.

Satisfying returns in the Mares' Hurdle as Quevega made history 

Spinning with success, the final profitable moment of the day for this blog came like a serendipitous additional train back home having delightfully dozed off and missed your stop. Already firmly in the green, and with my festival accumulator very much alive, Radjhani Express picked me up from Paradise Parkway and delivered me straight to the front door of my place on Astonishment Avenue. I had some confidence in Sam Waley-Cohen's chances, but at 25/1 (advised yesterday at 28/1), and with little support in the press amongst those who know far more than I do, it was phenomenally satisfying to collect another big chunk of cash at the close of a fantastic fillip-filled festival funday.

£470 profit for the day on Betfair to go with £375 on BetVictor, with about £50 of non-refunded losses elsewhere made it a smashing first day's work

 

Anyway, onto tomorrow.


National Hunt Chase

I honestly have no idea about this one yet! Will have a look in the morning but this was the race I tipped Soll for last year. The money I lost on the first race of day 2 last year saw me spiral out of control and lose about a grand on what we call "Black Wednesday" so I look down the card with a mixture of trepidation as the memories flood back, and also relief that I don't have any very strong fancies. It's an amateur jockey race, and so the first rider I looked for was today's winner Sam Waley-Cohen, but he doesn't have a ride booked - maybe he's busy putting a filling in someone's molar tooth in his dentist surgery? Only Godsmejudge for Alan King and Tofino Bay, ridden by Nina Carberry are jumping out at me at the moment, so I might have a small play on those two.

Neptune

All the talk has been for Pont Alexandre, who provides another opportunity for Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins to extend the lead they are enjoying over their rivals. At 2.58 on Betfair, I'd rather be a backer than a layer to get off to a solid start to the day with what many are calling the nap of the week!

RSA

Right - I'm on a Ruby Walsh / Paul Nicholls jockey / trainer double for the week and I'm going to go for Unioniste here. Boston Bob is being talked up as one who has been tilted for this race, and he will like the ground, but I'm going for the Ditcheat based grey, who wears the same eye-catching colours as another of my favourite horses, Al Ferof. The only other one that jumps out at me is Goulanes, but that's mainly because I immediately associate him with the gorgeous Kate Miller from William Hill, as she tipped him up to me at this same track just a few months ago.

"Queen Mum" - the Champion Chase
Nothing can beat Sprinter Sacre tomorrow. I'm on in my accumulator and think he will follow up last year's Arkle with another display of supreme leaping and rapid accelerating, doing so with that peacock-esque flamboyance that says he really knows he's bloody good. Mail de Bievre to follow him home at 5.2 for a place on Betfair looks good to me. I'm just glad Finian's Rainbow is nowhere to be seen.. he might be under the weather, but I'm not a fan and don't think he deserved this prestigious title last year when he got the better of Sizing Europe amidst all the "do-we-jump-don't-we-jump?" in the closing stages of the race.

Coral Cup

Pendra - half way down the weights, running off a mark of 139, figures of 1-112, AP McCoy desperate to get his first win of the week, odds of 17/2 available - done. Black Thunder for a place as an additional selection for Mr Nicholls at 7/1 on Betfair seems a reasonable price. He couldn't win when 9/2 favourite off the same mark of 145 when he had a claimant (Harry Derham) on board at Kempton in January but that is the only time he's finished outside the top 3 since his career began, you'll get a return if he finishes in the top 4 here, and the last time he was victorious was out in the west country on the softish left-handed undulations of Chepstow, not dissimilar to the conditions at Cheltenham in the morning.

Fred Winter and Bumper
No selection yet - it's been a long day and I need some rest.. but with the 2m Bumper featuring Joseph O'Brien riding for his father aboard Shield, chamion of the flat Richard Hughes saddling up on Sgt Reckless for legendary trainer Mick Channon, and Graham Lee chasing down a staggering 1000th win under rules with Caledonia (a 100/1 shot), there's a lot to consider in what many would usually write off as an end-of-the-afternoon donkey derby.

Phew..  I think Leyton Orient's win at home to Portsmouth tonight really took it out of me!

MORNING UPDATE:  I've backed Caledonia for the Bumper and, in the Coral Cup added another target - Ericht: trained by Nicky Henderson,  his jockey takes a massive 10lbs off a horse already only carrying 10-10 and with form figures of 1711, his last three rides being taken by Barry Geraghty and the one before that.... by today's jockey Gary Derwin.  I was delighted to see last year's Palphabet "Jumps Jockey of the Year" Brendan Powell Jr getting a win in a similar profile in yesterday's JLT with light-as-a-feather Golden Chieftain. 

Enjoy.

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 1

I'm not one to use the term "literally" lightly.  But I can honestly say this: never before have I metaphorically embarked upon a voyage across the symbolically stormy seas towards Cheltenham with such wind in my make-believe sails, figuratively speaking. 

I have, you see, had a weekend of punting successes, beginning with the Premier League of Darts on Thursday night, and concluding with the WGC Cadillac Championship at Doral yesterday that has seriously, literally given me the confidence to walk on water with this week's wagers.

Here's the summary of profit, although please deduct about £150 from this due to laying a bit of Tiger off on Betfair, and losing on a few top 10 golf bets:



A £150 both teams to score double, MvG vs Adrian Lewis 180s, a Sandown/Wolves Lucky 15 & a 6pt e/w monster on Tiger at Doral boosted my bet365 balance to over £3k - plenty of ammunition for the festival

My fondness for bet365's customer services has increased in harmony with my account balance over the past few days too.  Their telephonists and online-chat agents have provided me with answers to my questions regarding payouts and bonuses, leaving me feeling warmth towards them.  So it is with a small hint of guilt that I placed a fivefold for the week today that will undoubtedly make them regret the day they let me open an account with them (that was in December when their attractive odds about Sergio Garcia and Thongchai Jaidee in the Iskandar Johor Open led to my £200 deposit being matched by the firm, who then had to pay me out on both of those golfers at 4/1 and 16/1 respectively).  Forgive me for sounding smug, but can you pick many holes in this bet?

This fivefold pays around 360/1

But bet365 aren't the only bookmaker to feel sorry for this week, although they also have their Channel 4+1 offer, which rewards punters holding winning bets of 4/1 or higher on televised festival races with a free bet in the next televised race - an offer which gives plenty of value for siding with non-favourites in most races.  Paddy Power are leaving themselves extremely exposed by returning losing bets in tomorrow's Stan James Champion Hurdle if Hurricane Fly wins, and he is favourite to do so. 

William Hill are paying 5 places for your each way stabs in the Supreme Novices, a race in which there are some mammoth prices of 500/1 being quoted about a couple of the "rags" and meaning your horse only has to finish about half way up the field to ensure you get some kind of return.  With attractive options in the shape of Dodging Bullets, Champagne Fever and Puffin Billy threatening the supposed procession of My Tent or Yours and Jezki, and with the infamous regularity of short priced favourites getting turned over in the festival's curtain raiser, it's got to be worth taking on the JP McManus duo at the head of the market with one of the traditional firms, or by laying them on Betfair, who are waiving commission fees for tomorrow. 

Victor Chandler will refund losing bets on the same race up to £50 by crediting your account with a free bet you must stake before the end of the week.   If you win, you win... if you lose, you get the chance to win again - the poor bookies / exchanges are going to go broke in their quest for your betting business aren't they?

Maybe! With bankers like Quevega, Sprinter Sacre and potentially Simonsig and Bobs Worth (I'm not so sure about the latter two), there's every chance that the bookies' generosity in refunding monies and paying out half way down the field will be compounded by good old-fashioned high-rollers trying to win two-and-a-half-grand off a 10-grand stake (in the case of the Champion Chaser elect anyway).  Upon watching last year's Arkle, and forwarding to the leap about 2 minutes 10 seconds into this clip, I added Sprinter Sacre to my fivefold for the week without hesitation.

 

I had a great first day at Cheltenham in 2012, but a torrid Wednesday.  I am hoping for a less bumpy ride this year, and so I'm quite happy going with four or fivefold bets, using Lucky 15s and Super Yankees to spread the risk and prolong the fun, staking relatively confidently due to a fortunate finding of form but not getting too carried away where I'm not too sure, most notably in tomorrow's Arkle duel of Simonsig vs Overturn and the extremely competitive Champion Hurdle, although the various offers listed above mean I will have a bet of some kind!

 

Day 1 advice therefore is:

 

Supreme Novices

Lay: My Tent or Yours on Betfair

Back: Champagne Fever (either e/w with William Hill for 5 places, or with Victor Chandler, to get your money back if you lose)

 

Arkle

Watch Simonsig vs Overturn and enjoy it!  I was a fan of Overturn but the ground has me worried.  If I had  to bet, I would favour Overturn still at the prices - I think PP are going 4/1 in the morning

 

JLT

First big handicap of the meeting - a juicy one and I've just noticed Quantitativeeasing appear in my inbox thanks to my AtTheRaces.com tracker.  I've made a note asking "AP on board?" and yet I see that Barry Geraghty has the ride, with Champ taking Nadiya de la Vega as his preferred pick.  Bazza G says the following about JP McManus's "secong string" horse on his ATR blog: "I’d have been happier if the ground had been better because those conditions suit him. But he does seem to be coming to himself and he has now dropped to 1lb lower than when we were last successful."

I'll have a good look at this in the morning I think! 

 

Champion Hurdle

What a treat we have here!  Loads of contenders, three former champions (Binocular, Hurricane Fly and last year's victorious Rock on Ruby, who sports blinkers for the first time tomorrow) and the exciting Countrywide Flame, who I had at 45/1 for last year's JCB Triumph Hurdle and who I have backed antepost for this race at around 13/1 (having had some at 20/1 last month but most over the Christmas period at 11/1 before Darlan blew him away into fourth when he went off 6/4fav for the Christmas Hurdle).  Paddy's money back if Hurricane Fly wins looks tempting so I'll be going for Zarkandar to give Paul Nicholls his first win of the festival (incidentally I also think is worth backing the champion trainer to beat Henderson and Mullins this week at 7/1 as Nicholls has a fair few opportunities, particularly in some of the less glamourous races)

 

Cross-Country Chase

15 year-old A New Story finished runner up in this last year at 20/1 and is best-priced 20/1 to win it tomorrow.  Carrying 10-4 off a mark of 135 and with jockey AP (not that one - this is Mr AP Heskin) taking three pounds off thanks to his claim, it is worth a romantic couple of quid each way.  As Paul Kealy warns in today's Racing Post festival special though, "bear in mind that last year's ground was rock-hard compared to what the runners will face tomorrow".

 

Mares' Hurdle

Quevega is in my Super Yankee as above and without the presence of her male counterpart Big Bucks is probably the banker of the week.  Une Artiste to finish behind her.

 

Novices' Handicap Chase

The last race of the opening day and I've seen The Druids Nephew being tipped up all over the place today so will have to get on!  Sam Waley-Cohen takes the reins of Radjhani Express at the top of the weights, but takes off a handy 5lbs via his claim as an amateur jockey.  His ride at Kempton on heavy ground looked professional enough to me, albeit at a much lower mark of 129, and at 28/1 with Bet Victor is more than a speculative each way bet.  He comes from the same sire, Presenting, as festival favourite Denman and my personal weekend hero Soll, who contributed to the £700 lucky 15 win above and gave me impetus for the week ahead.

 

Best of luck - see you on the other side of the roar!  I cannot wait.