Aintree Day 3 - The Grand National

Maybe it was the stench of tanning products?  Liverpudlian ladies, liver chestnut in colour swigging neat vodkas providing distraction from the track and clouding my mind.  Something certainly has to be blamed for my laying of Dynaste, opposing of Sprinter Sacre and losing of £220 on festival Friday.   At Fishers Cross and My Tent or Yours provided some respite, returning about about a ton plus some acca money but that just serves as evidence for the size of those other losses.  Sprinter Sacre was simply stunning over that longer trip yesterday and really has nothing but a Gold Cup or a King George to win now. I think he could do it!

 

 

Liverpool, however, is the perfect place to revive and refresh your punting passions.  Last night the city centre was teeming with life and laughter, and this morning the aftermath of alcoholic effects is being tempered perfectly by the aroma currently emanating from our hosts' kitchen.  A full English breakfast is on the way, and so is Grand National Saturday.

 

Being a three day meeting, the cards at Aintree are jam-packed with quality.  Hearty handicaps follow grade 1 contests, equine behemoths every way you turn and today is no different.  Overturn goes up against Alderwood in the Maghull Novices' Chase; the 3-mile Liverpool hurdle sees Grands Crus, another David Pipe trained grey bidding to prove his doubters wrong and demonstrate that a return to hurdling is just the tonic required to get back to winning ways; and in the Grand National, my money is carried by the same horse who carries my dreams - Soll - who was bred by my friend's father, sired by Denman's father Presenting, and could be the mother of all bets I have ever placed.  I got on at nearly 300/1 months ago.  When the weights and entries were being discussed he was way down the list, but today he is actually competing in the greatest race on turf.

I don't know why this picture is blurry, but I'm hoping my eyes will be wet with blurry tears when Soll romps home later

1.45 Mersey Novices' Hurdle

It's between Up and Go for Donald McCain and Dodging Bullets for Paul Nicholls at the top of the betting market in this 8 horse race.  Up and Go hasn't won on going faster than soft and his price is a bit on the skinny side, but looks to be a banker to get us started.

2.15 Maghull Novices' Chase

Overturn was run ragged by Simonsig over the undulations of Cheltenham and followed him home an Arkle Chase fourth, some 30 lengths behind.  With that in mind, Alderwood is tempting so I'm going to reverse forecast the two but with a leaning towards Overturn, who is a real favourite of mine.

2.50 Liverpool Hurdle

Solwhit is a class act, and Alan King's Smad Place will likely feature in the places.  Holywell is another festival winner to be feared in this exciting renewal, although the race is marred slightly by the absence of the mighty Big Buck's.  In the same red and white colours of the Stewart Family, I'm going to back Celestial Halo to go one better than at Cheltenham, and I'm also going to get Grands Crus on side at a tempting price.

The Grand National

I'm running out of time here and the champagne cork has just been popped by our hospitable friend Cairnsey, so all's left to say is come on Soll.  I have made some other selections, influenced by Pricewise, AP McCoy's choice of horse and by the huge price about Oscar Time, runner up in 2011's race. 

Here we go again...

 

 

Coral Welsh National - Value in the Wye Valley

Did you know there are apparently more atoms in a standard glass of water than there are glasses of water in all of the oceans on Earth?  Given the amount of rain that has fallen on Cheltenham over the Christmas period (68mm), and Chepstow on 22^nd December alone (31.98mm – the highest December daily fall for 8 years), I think that fact could be rewritten:  there are more atoms on west country/Monmouthshire racetracks than there are glasses of champagne consumed in a big-race winners’ enclosure. Or something.  Postponed due to more moisture than your average otter’s pocket, the Coral Welsh National has been rescheduled for this Saturday, and I have had a few thoughts that could, with a bit of good fortune, help get the New Year’s bubbly flowing for Palphabet readers.

I have talked up this horse before (6 minutes into this clip). I have backed him and been disappointed before. I have also been encouraged by him before. And before I go any further, I’ll give you his name: Soll. A close relative of Denman (not quite a half-brother as the progeny collide on the sire Presenting’s side, rather than on that of the mare), this Derrick Mossop-owned and Jo Hughes-trained beast has made the switch over from Willie Mullins’s yard in Closutton, Co Carlow, to a stable in Lambourn where the close attention of a female guv’nor who trains only a 'Norfolk-handful' of thoroughbreds over the sticks (she has six jumpers) seems to be paying dividends. The change in scenery from illustrious to relatively unknown may seem strange to some, but the owner specifically wanted a woman running a focused operation to take over the day-to-day training schedule of Soll as he felt the horse could benefit from a bit of extra TLC, and Hughes is said to be waxing lyrical about the latest recruit to her team.

The ears of the pundits have been pricked too.  Soll was the pick of a couple of presenters on The Morning Line as he vied for the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury off a mark of 140. The very impressive Henderson Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite, Bobs Worth went on to win that race but the depth and quality of the field was plain to see. Tidal Bay gallantly carried top weight and achieved a runner-up place, was raised from an offical rating of 166 to 169 and went on to win the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on the 27^thDecember, under one of three festive rides from Ruby Walsh that, collectively, made Alan Sweetman's Ireland's Eye well up with admiration.  Sweetman wrote in his Racing Post Christmas Highlights piece yesterday:  “In all my time watching racing I don't think I've witnessed three successive races won in such a manner by the same jockey”. He called it a "feat worthy of comparison with anything in the wider sporting world, as awe-inspiring as a Lionel Messi hat-trick, a sequence of birdies by Rory McIlroy or three aces in a row from Novak Djokovic".  Praise indeed, although I think Alan missed the opportunity to parallel the joy brought about by Walsh's equestrian talents with the ecstacy felt by Leyton Orient fans on account of current golden boy Moses Odubajo's sweet feet.  Ahem, I digress..

In the process of winning the Lexus, Tidal Bay saw off Gigginstown House Stud owned First Lieutenant, a 2 ½ length runner-up to Bobs Worth in last year’s RSA and himself placed third in the Hennessy, and the much-revered Flemenstar, who some have been quick to write off over the three-miles attempted in Ireland on Friday but who Tom Segal has said via the Racing Post’s website, has actually enhanced his credentials as a staying chaser.  Whether that thing goes for the Champion Chase and gives Sprinter Sacre a proper challenge; the Ryanair and wins a mid-distance test that Peter Casey’s son Francis described as a non-entity (upsetting Cheltenham chairman Robert Waley-Cohen in the process); or the Gold Cup for the most prestige; the fact that he got beaten by a head by an unbelievably likeable horse-jockey partnership should be taken in the Christmas spirit rather than bah-humbugged away like a failed new year’s resolution.

Anyway, that’s Flemenstar.

A Palphabet favourite, Wayne Hutchinson, causes 14/1 Welsh National shot Universal Soldier to catch the eye but I’ve noticed this evening that Soll has been tipped by Ben Hutton on the Racing Post’s Welsh National preview video, and see on www.oddschecker.com that he’s one of the most fancied bets anywhere in sport tonight.

Soll seems to be on punters' radars ahead of the weekend

There’s clearly some serious attention on this big chestnut gelding.  Why not have a watch of his performance at Newbury, focusing on his jumping, fluency in running and without worrying too much about him fading away on testing ground on this seasonal reappearance.

Mark Howard makes some encouraging comments about Soll in his National Hunt bible One Jump Ahead. Howard says this:

“Soll won over hurdles for John Quinn prior to joining Willie Mullins in Ireland. The Presenting gelding provided Mullins with his 100^th winner of the season last term (fastest ever in Ireland) when scoring at Down Royal in February. Brought down at Cheltenham [in the 4m National Hunt Chase], he has only run three times over fences and is held in high regard by his connections. “He’s a big baby but hopefully he has a big future,” remarked his owner Derrick Mossop, while Mullins stated in March: “He’s a big staying type and a horse we like a lot.” There could be a major staying handicap to be won with him this season.

In a handicap, you need a horse who can show improvement above his mark. I’ve just got off the phone to the owner’s son, Dan Mossop, who couldn’t contain his excitement about this “unexposed giant of a horse” and thinks he can run well above his mark of 139 under a weight of 10-12.

A few things points to summarise why Soll represents value for Saturday:

1. To win a race like this, you need to be a strong jumper, with plenty of stamina. Soll’s jumping is excellent and stamina is a key attribute.

2. His trainer, Jo Hughes, has been full of praise for his improvement since his decent performance in the Hennessy.

3. That Hennessy was very strong. For Tidal Bay (runner-up) to be raised by the handicapper from 166 to 169 and still win the Lexus shows the strength of the Newbury race

4. Front page headline grabber and AP McCoy mount Teaforthree won the 4m festival race in which Soll was brought down, and has figures of 2311 at Chepstow, justifying favouritism. But Teaforthree had a warm up race at Cheltenham in November before finishing sixth in the Hennessy, just over 6 lengths in front of Soll, who wasn’t really match fit after a long lay-off since March, when he wasn’t right in himself. Yet Teaforthree heads the market for Saturday at a best-price 3/1 now, whilst Soll is available at four or five times the price. It would not surprise me one iota if Tom Segal makes Soll his Pricewise pick when the Racing Post is digitally published tomorrow night.

I’ve had a few stabs on Betfair and Bet365 at prices ranging from 18/1 down to 14/1 with stakes that might be considered atomic to some hardcore punters but are fairly gigantic by my standards, and I hope to be able to buy more than a few glasses of water with the winnings come Saturday night. Let’s hope this enthusiasm seems more cosmic than comic by Sunday morning.

Cheltenham 2012 - Day 1

Palphabet Off to a Flyer with all but the Hurricane on a Whirlwind First Day

Cinders & Ashes, Quevega and Sprinter Sacre provided Palphabet with a successful start to this year’s Cheltenham Festival and a profitable first stab at prospective previews rather than just retrospective reviews.  Unlike Sprinter Sacre's brilliance, these tipping triumphs won’t last long, so I’m going to relish it this evening and keep looking forward with hopefully just a hint of smug permeating into this piece.

Cinders & Ashes and Hunt Ball both gave decent returns, whilst Quevega paid out £74 from a 6pt stake

The biggest damage to the coffers was done today by lumping £135.43 on a Hurricane Fly / Big Buck’s double at 2.64 on Betfair, and is yet to be reflected on the above P&L.  I did have a place bet on Rock on Ruby though, so the Champion Hurdle didn’t leave me too cold, and I was impressed again with Overturn’s fierce gallop.  Binocular showed signs that he would get going, but his inconsistencies continued.  Despite not tipping it in advance, I had a 1pt stake on Hunt Ball (and a smaller, losing bet on Harpsy Chord) that means I can go into tomorrow with a fully loaded gambling gun.

http://www.palphabet.blogspot.com/2012/02/go-with-your-gut.html

Tomorrow’s bet on Soll (now 8-1) drew enough attention when I put him up at 12s to be chosen by the nice people at sportingbet.com to form part of their “Cheltenham Chat” podcast (which you can hear here).  I have been lumping on Mullins's son of Presenting for the past couple of months and cannot wait to see him bring home the booty over the stamina-testing 4m Amateur Riders' Novices' National Hunt chase, which is first up on day two of what is now trending on Twitter as #CheltFest.

UPDATE 14-03-12 ... Read my guest blog preview of this race on Scott Ferguson's www.sportismadeforbetting.com here

With two of my antepost selections gone (Alan King's Invictus and Fingal Bay), I will eschew the complicated forecasts tomorrow, stick to Grands Crus (6-4 from 9-4 advised) in the RSA Chase and go for another of King's entries in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle: Battonier (9-1).

UPDATE 14-03-12 ... With Battonier declared a non-runner this morning and the Betfair selection voided, I have put my 1pt e/w on Make Your Mark instead. Davy Russell's ride for WP Mullins offers good value at around 10-1 and I've rather go there than Simonsig, about whom I have my doubts.

As Somersby opts for Thursday's 5f longer trip in the Ryanair Chase, tomorrow's Queen Mother Champion Chase price about Sizing Europe (11-10 as advised a month ago) is no longer available, but the 20-21 currently offered on the Betfair exchange is only a fraction shorter, and should be hoovered up.  I'll also have a bit of Kauto Stone for a place at around 11-4. 

In the later contests on Wednesday afternoon, AP McCoy is worth backing on board Jonjo O'Neill's Get Me Out Of Here in the Coral Cup at 12-1 - after Hunt Ball's performance today I won't be put off by the weight!  I also like Brendan Powell, who claims 5lbs atop the Dr Richard Newland trained Act Of Kalanisi (20-1).  Vendor (4-1) is the one to go for in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle, another Alan King horse who Choc Thornton put up as his nap of the week, but Kie jumped off the page at me available at 59-1 so I will have a small wager each way on this one of McCain's, who will have a fired-up Jason Maguire on board after his win in the Supreme today. 

Exhausting, exhilarating, and only just beginning!

DP

Crusade for Cheltenham Clarity

"Life, woah life” [click here to listen whilst reading - recommended]

 Whenever I feel bogged down by events that occur to us inhabitants of earth, Des'ree's fine lyrics loll around my head and remind me of how insignificant we all really are, from a cosmological point of view anyway.  I'm sure that was her intended message.

I wrote that paragraph a couple of weeks ago but didn't finish off the chain of thought as Kevin Pullein in the Racing Post coincidentally published a piece with a similar theme in the paper, inadvertently denying Palphabet followers an undoubtedly cracking read.  As I didn't want to look like the Johann Hari of gambling blogs, I nipped it in the bud, looking for a slightly different angle.  The ultimate goal, however, was to attempt to define that moment of clarity that us punters have from time to time.  I'm referring to the supra-dreamlike vision of a victorious betting slip or Betfair interface, when everything just comes together in harmonious profit.

 January's P&L features one such moment:

Adrian "Jackpot" Lewis regained the PDC World Championship title, despite the best efforts of a wasp, a draught created by an open Alexandra Palace door and the first few sets of James Wade's accurate arrows.  Maybe "The Machine" enjoyed his own moment of clarity, shortly before the realisation that he was going to deny me the opportunity to pocket £1200 (minus lay-offs) caused him to metaphorically gouge out his eyes with tungsten-tips and collapse like Costa Concordia with Captain Coward at the controls.

The ability to see things clearly, then, is an advantage and fortunately January provided me with my first few transparent windows towards Cheltenham Glory:

Willie Mullins top trainer at 13/8 (Hills)
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/specials/season-specials/cheltenham-festival/top-trainer/best-odds/

Ruby Walsh top jockey at 8/11 (Hills)http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/specials/season-specials/cheltenham-festival/top-jockey/best-odds

Soll to win the National Hunt Steeple Chase at 12s with Hills, Stan James and Betfred, only 8s with the Magic Sign after success in Ireland midweek
http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/races/national-hunt-steeple-chase-odds.php

Big Buck's to win the Ladbrokes World Hurdle NAP at 4/9 (Hills)
http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/races/ladbrokes-world-hurdle-odds.php

Hurricane Fly to win the Champion Hurdle at Evens with Paddy Power
 http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/races/champion-hurdle-odds.php

Finally, for now, and I start to shake a little bit just writing it down: Kauto Star to win the Gold Cup at a mouth-watering 4/1 generally, and nearly 5s on Betfair
http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/races/cheltenham-gold-cup-odds.php

I'd recommend looking for the best prices and placing a few singles and one whopping festival accumulator whilst listening to this.  I welcome your comments on my selections and aim to do a more in depth post during the week expanding on my reasons for the above selections, maybe looking for some more single-bet value plays. 

I am confident that the return awarded for this straightforward six-fold will mean that by the evening of Friday 16th March, when the festival racing is over, I will be so consumed by joy and alcohol that I won't be able to see anything, clearly or otherwise.  This excellent acca calculator from http://www.betcalc.com/accacalc.php illustrates my point as clear as a freshly polished pane of glass.

DP