It's Wentworth Shopping Around for the Best Prices

For the past couple of weeks, I've had the honour of writing a review blog for the website of quality magazine Golf Monthly. This piece appears on there via this link, and my first two blogs can be found here and here...

The betting bus bowled into Bulgaria last weekend to break-in a virgin course already being dubbed “Europe’s Pebble Beach” and so it was apt that Graeme McDowell should walk away with the World Matchplay Title, having been crowned US Open Champion at THE Pebble three years ago.   I’ve backed him to regain the US Open title this summer, so was especially pleased to see him come home at 8/1 from Thongchai Jaidee.

McDowell was tipped up by GM’s Nick Bonfield last week, and on the offical European Tour Podcast by Richard Boxall, who successfully selected Tiger Woods the week before.  It’s a broadcast well worth listening to as part of your weekly punting preparations: http://www.europeantour.com/videoaudio/audio/index.html

En route to the title, G Mac beat defending champion Nicolas Colsaerts, who got bogged down and had to take a dump – sorry, drop – in the toilets.  Although flushed, the Belgian didn’t let it wipe him away, halving the hole before eventually plunging to a 2&1 defeat.

Elsewhere in Europe, 2010 U.S. Amateur champion Peter Uihlein caught the eye, earning not only his maiden victory at the Madeira Open, but receiving a tour exemption until the end of the 2014 season in the process.  Many top players hold the U.S. Amateur title amongst their myriad accomplishments, including Matt Kuchar, Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods.  So Pistol Pete, (whose father Wally is the CEO of Titleist and Footjoy) is in good company, and will surely always be able to blag top stash from his old man to ensure he has the right tools for the job. 

He was a 25/1 shot before the tournament, carded a second round 64 that included an eagle and two bogeys, was 15/8 going into the final round, and won by two shots from Denmark’s Morten Ørum Madsen (what’s that “Ø” all about?)  I only had small stakes on this event and won nothing.

 

In America, I was delighted with Martin Kaymer’s performance, having backed him at 70 for the win and 6.2 for a top 10 finish.  When I doubled him up each-way with Madsen’s compatriot Thorbjørn Olesen, I thought it would be the German former world number one who would let me down.  Thorbjørn, however, crashed out of the World Matchplay at the group stage and ended my chance of a four-figure profit before the weekend began.  It must be something about those strange letter Øs:  Bøøøøø! 

 

 

This weekend, it's the flagship event on the European Tour, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.  Since I've started really shopping around for my bets I'm keeping a note of them on my phone so I don't forget where I've backed winners, top 10s, top 5s, each-ways, doubles, exchange bets, fixed odds, decimals, fractions.. it all gets a bit much to remember, especially when you pick 10 (TEN) players for the weekend's entertainment!  It's definitely worth it, though, and I'm sure it's making me think more about what I am doing, even if it's not a guaranteed gateway to golf gambling gains.

My headlines for the European Tour are Martin Kaymer (£50 e-w 33/1 with Paddy Power paying 6 places) and Branden Grace (£25 win at 50/1 with Betway, £25 top 10 at 6 on Betfair).  I fancy one of these to break the recent English stronghold over the tournament so I'm sticking with the improving Kaymer, who has finished 31st and 15th here in the past two outings, and Grace, who was 5th last year and finished 3rd last week in the World Matchplay. 

Whilst Garcia crossed my mind, he is in a right state following this highly public ding-dong with his equally quarrelsome but superiorly talented sparring partner Mr Tiger Woods, and I wouldn't be surprised if he missed the cut.  A real shame it's descended into this as both have been playing some spectacular stuff of late.

I also like Kevin Streelman in the US PGA event at Colonial, who went extremely close to winning me five grand at Augusta the other week, and is the selection of Steve Palmer from the Racing Post and Dave Kelner from the William Hill Golf Betting Podcast.  I'll back him outright, but have doubled him up with Kaymer in the hope of winning 20 bags by Sunday night.

 

 

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 4

The fall of the Berlin Wall; the end of Queen Victoria's six-decade reign; the final episode of The Wire; reaching your destination after a satisfying automobile journey along a favourite route... all things eventually finish.  Yesterday this was evident in stark brutality, and as I assess my Bet365 balance (showing a £200 loss on First Lieutenant, and a £25 loss on a FL / Dynaste "banker" double), as well as my Betfair P&L this morning, it makes for a similar reading experience as one of Melanie Phillips’ Daily Mail columns: sickening.

Yuck

Muck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have never been trackside at Cheltenham’s “St Patrick’s Day” but it was an otherwise enjoyable experience.  Slightly shorter queues for bars and toilets (particularly after blagging it into the club enclosure) and Irish barmen in the Guinness tent seemingly more inebriated than their awaiting punters, World Hurdle day offered a pleasant alternative to Gold Cup Friday, which brings us to today. 

The amphitheatre of National Hunt Racing

 

I write this from the B&B in which we are staying  (I say B&B – it’s a family home that we have been taking over in increased numbers for the past few meetings at National Hunt HQ.. Essex raiders, if you will) and without the luxury of having much time at my disposal to think up my usual witticisms and anecdotes, I’ll get on with my selections for Friday.  Whilst I am hoping to end the week on a high, it would be wrong to look at yesterday and get too bogged down; ultimately it’s been a cracking week of punting and just being in the presence of Far West’s connections today is sure to make it an extremely pleasurable and memorable fourth day at my third festival.  Looking forward..

Triumph
Far West - been backing him for ages and, knowing one of the part owners as closely as I know my own member, it would be a delight to see the juvenile hurdler deliver at around 6/1 today.  Nicholls is bullish, and said in this morning's Betfair column: "I personally would say that we set the form standard going into this race".

County Hurdle
Ted Veale - heard some decent noise about this one, who carries just 10-6 with Bryan Cooper on board.  Cooper was atop Benefficient, slayer of Dynaste, yesterday and then stood in on First Lieutenant after reports that the unfortunate Davy Russell had spontaneously punctured a lung - get well soon Davy!

Albert Bartlett
At Fishers Cross.  The delightful Rebecca Curtis saddles this in-form bay gelding to provide that elusive 2013 festival win for AP McCoy, who I've just seen has been given the ride on Sir Des Champs in the Gold Cup following Davy Russell's withdrawal and the subsequent but unrelated non-running of Sunnyhillboy.

Gold Cup
Backed, and then layed a bit of Silviniaco Conti antepost after his recent winning of the Denman Chase at Newbury.  Nicholls is happy with SC and whilst there are plenty of doubters out there, he's said he's "confident that Conti goes into the race fit and well and on an upward curve".  Backed Sir Des Champs nearly a year ago and now buoyed by the booking of the 17-time consecutive champion jockey.  Going to take Long Run each-way too for the Waley-Cohen / Henderson crew - can't ignore that animal.  Now watch Bob's Worth make all and duly sluice up!

Foxhunter
Salsify.  Small bet on a fancied nag as part of a multiple - see below.

Martin Pipe
Act of Kalanisi for Dr Richard Newland, who I found out recently is involved in orthopaedics, much like myself!  AoK is ridden by 6-pound claiming jockey Christopher Ward (incidentally the name of one of my favourite watch brands).  Also backed Salubrious - PFN and Harry Derham (3).  As well as putting David Pipe's grey Gevrey Chambertin in a big acca, I also like Oh Crick and Shooters Wood too.. let's see how carried away I get at the track later!

Grand Annual
Last bet of the week.. well last festival bet anyway.    I was on Alderwood at 20/1 in last year's Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle and I'm going to get back involved today too, albeit only with a 0.5pt poke.

Finally, I've had a monster accumulator and Super Heinz with bet365.. pays out about a million-to-one.. fine.

 

Let's be Frank: Nothing Comes Close

Sitting by the radio, watching the rotating spools of a TDK 90 minute cassette as they consigned the gig of my lifetime to a strip of magnetically coated plastic, I made myself a promise: I would never miss out on anything ever again.  A difficult pledge to adhere to, but one I strive to uphold.

I have since seen Oasis play at Finsbury Park, The City of Manchester and Wembley Stadia, and had a whale of a time in the process.  But that 1996 Knebworth Park performance was the peak of their power and the pinnacle of a Britpop era that punctuated my puberty.  Everything after that, being brazenly and brutally honest, was watching the group in decline.

I openly admit that I enjoy the longevity of following horses that jump over fences and hurdles in the National Hunt arena year after year, but sometimes their demise can also be protracted.  Whilst the flat may not always lavish upon us the same depth of character that its winter/spring counterpart delivers, it is difficult to argue against the pure, unabated qualities of the Classic generation. 

So, not to miss out, I went to Doncaster a few weeks ago hoping to see history being rewritten before my eyes as Camelot seized the triple-crown.   I wasn’t convinced though, and layed the Coolmore colt to the tune of about £200 [I’m aware it should probably be spelt “laid” but I prefer my way when it comes to betting].   Yes, I can say “I was there”, but this experience didn’t fill the bon viveur void that I’ve been searching for since 1996.

It mattered not.  Seeing Frankel in the flesh at Ascot last year was my Knebworth.

See if you can you spot me in the winner's enclosure with Frankel et al

 

Heading back to Berkshire tomorrow to bid him farewell, I have read, listened and watched as journalists, pundits and enthusiasts discuss the issues.  The sub-plots are enchanting:  Will the ground be a problem for him?  Is Cirrus des Aigles the toughest opponent he is yet to encounter?  Isn’t it fitting that Nathaniel, whom Frankel met in his first race at Newmarket in 2010, should bookend his old foe’s career at a track where he has had much success himself?  What will St Nicholas Abbey be making of it all?  Has Excelebration become so accustomed to being whipped by Frankel that, rather than celebrating his Queen Elizabeth II Stakes victory tomorrow, he’ll be found back in his box, miserably leafing through a copy of 50 Shades of Grey to satisfy some kind of equine sadomasochism?

Most readers of this blog will be familiar with most of that already.  So, with only four competitors lining up alongside “The Freak”, discounting stable mate and pacemaker Bullet Train, this is how I see the result panning out tomorrow:

1.      Frankel – I can’t bear the thought of him & Queally flopping.  He will win.

2.      Nathaniel – I love Buick and have fond memories of his King George win here, after which Gosden’s words to the media in the wake of Rewilding’s death provided a particularly poignant moment.  I think Nathaniel can bounce back from enforced absence at Longchamp and overturn the rivalry with Cirrus des Aigles, with whom I expect him to be jousting for the runner-up spot.

3.      Cirrus des Aigles – I was hoping Christophe Soumillon would come over to exorcise his Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe demons, but maybe he is still bitter about his huge fine in this race last year... although probably not.   Olivier Peslier clearly knows how to guide “Cloud of the Eagles” to victory but I’m sure he will settle for a win on board exciting sprinter Wizz Kid instead.

4.      Pastorius – Tipped up at 10-1 (without Frankel) in the Weekender by Paul Kealy, he’s had three wins and a place in his last four outings back home in Germany.  16 years ago his jockey, Frankie Dettori, "did a Hughsie" at Ascot (1996 certainly was an eventful year) and many will rightly see his partnership with this course-specialist rider as a real positive.  All my sentiment and emotion has already been used up for this race though, so I’m sticking with the above Trifecta.

5.      Master of Hounds – Figures of 3181 coming into this and only catches the eye as he’s in the hands of Ryan Moore.

6.      Bullet Train – One of the best pacemakers out there, but that’s it for now.  Behind every great golfer is a clued-up caddy, and Bullet Train pulls out the correct club for Frankel every time.  

Even on testing, boggy ground coming round Swinley Bottom, I expect Tom Queally to be characteristically calm and composed on the back of Frankel, with whom he has developed a beautifully harmonious rhythm.   I’m looking forward to Queally opening up the son of Galileo in front of the packed grandstands and winning by a decent margin.  Five lengths or more is trading at 2.62 (about 13/8) on Betfair at the moment and I think that’s a fair price for a 2pt+ stake. 

But my main advice for the race, clichéd as it may be, is to savour the final outing of a living legend performing at the zenith of his abilities.  Sing along when he holds the microphone in your direction, hold your lighters aloft and say “I was there”.  And if you were not actually there, don’t fret – my mum told me in 1996 that I’d get another chance... I did, and you will.  It might just take a few years, so Roll With It.

Part 2: Memories of the National Hunt 2011-12 Season...

Last weekend’s stag-do involved a 6am flight to Tenerife, and then three monster nights out following the same pattern of: gentle trot at Oasis Bar to “Call me Al”, stepping up to a gallop at Joyce’s Bar with “Strings of Life” and finishing at a canter on stage at Linneker’s with the occasional veering off the beaten track to Voodoo Gentleman’s Club.

The afternoons were spent (when not evacuating one’s organs) munching Tabasco-topped toasties and supping San Migs in Leonardo’s Bar, watching the FA Cup Final or the 2,000 Guineas, gambling easily and steadily via the pub’s first-class free WiFi facilities.  Opposing AP O’Brien’s winning horse, Camelot, on the Saturday was a mistake.  Not opposing fairer-sex stable companion Maybe on the Sunday, another mistake.  Stag parties are expensive enough without doing your brains on iBetMate, but it certainly beats sitting under that roasting ball of plasma around which the Earth inexorably orbits.  Brains Done 1-0 Skin Cancer. 

At the risk of being somewhat out of date, I’ll quickly round up my memories for the 2011-12 National Hunt season, so we can put that to bed and focus on the summer:

January

After the jubilant scenes on Boxing Day with Kauto, and even with Adrian Lewis defying wasps, wafts and Wade at Alexandra Palace, 2012 hadn’t started well.  Despite some successes, I was spreading myself thin and showing no signs of focus.

Had a bit of luck with one of my At The Races “Tracker” horses Bronze Angel, partnered on the all-weather a few times over the winter by the gorgeous Hayley Turner, as I stuck him in an each-way £20 quick-fire double with Dr Richard Newland’s jumper Act of Kalanisi.

The Victor Chandler chase saw Henrietta Knight’s Somersby break his Grade One duck at Ascot while I sided with Nicholls grey Al Ferof, who finished in third place with Finian’s Rainbow nestled in between.  Elsewhere that day at Haydock a fillip came in the shape of a horse who would end the season as an Aintree fatality, the likeable According to Pete.

February

It was difficult to stay fully focused during this month of distraction: Valentine’s Day, a trip to Dublin for an engagement party, the postponement of Newbury’s newly named Denman chase to a Friday where I had to work in Glasgow meant the build up to Cheltenham was somewhat punctuated by dissatisfaction.   Whilst in Dublin, I was buoyed again by the way in which racing, and gambling thereon seems a more acceptable line of conversation than it does back here in the UK.  I also got a tinge of excitement as Chance du Roy went close at Ascot, heading the pack 4 out before falling away on soft ground.  Setting off for the 3m challenge at 16-1, some compensation was found as my stake lay was snapped up by greedy backers before CdR made a mistake 2 from home.

Brief interruptions of joy came in the shape of Oh Crick’s win at Chepstow, Portrait King’s win at Newcastle and Tom Segal picking Medermit for the Ryanair after I had already placed a bet on the same selection, thus beating the inevitable price-crash. 

Paul Nicholls inexplicably “favouriting” one of my less interesting tweets, despite ignoring all previous attempts to catch his web-roaming eye also lifted the spirits.

March

Cheltenham’s ‘Black Wednesday’, where my tip of the festival, Soll, fell over and I lost nearly a grand overall, was a real low.  Big Buck’s provided a stratospheric high, and the Gold Cup was particularly special for many obvious reasons that I have already documented elsewhere on the blog.  Sprinter Sacre’s performance was breathtaking and Hunt Ball etched himself further into the hearts of horse racing fans, defying top weight against a field of 20 when winning the 2m 4f Novices’ Handicap Chase.   

At the track on the Friday, after receiving a tip for the JCB Triumph Hurdle, I stuck ½ a point e/w on Countrywide Flame at 45-1 on Betfair.   With figures of 113123 going into the race, John Quinn’s consistent competitor beat my antepost fancies Grumeti and Dodging Bullets and returned me to [near] financial parity for the festival. 

The week after the festivities was emotionally cloudy and difficult to accept until Chance du Roy triumphed at 9/2 in a 2m 4f handicap chase at a good-to-soft Haydock Park on the 21st. 

A fantastic rollercoaster of a month!

April

At the Aintree meeting, Grumeti got his own back on Countrywide Flame, I got my own back after ignoring decent prices about Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre for Cheltenham by pairing them up in a winning odds-on double, and Liverpool got its own back on my liver, by poisoning me with horrid shots bearing my name. 

The Grand National aftermath led to racing public emotion, general public outcry and many public house discussions. 

Mates of mine whose love for the sport was initiated by spending formative years watching the National with their parents were suddenly questioning whether or not they would, or could ever watch the race again.  Some pundits, with far more experience than I, argued that people should just accept it.  Paul Nicholls snapped during an interview that people needed to “grow up”.  More considered devotees of the turf suggested further changes were required but yet many were not able to put their finger on exactly what amendments are appropriate.  Watch this space.

It's great to be ON!

My Luck was in! Palphabet meets his hero

A great view of a formidable obstacle

Finishing the season on a dreary day at Sandown Park gave some of the great horses of the year a chance to be paraded in front of the crowds, who treated the rain with the contempt it deserved.  Somehow, however, I managed to miss it! 

I did enjoy one my favourite jockeys, Brendan Powell, earning a place on board Act of Kalanisi.   Read more about the lad here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/16396736  

With Ruby Walsh in Ireland for the delayed Punchestown showpiece, Grand National winning jockey Daryl Jacob was put atop Sanctuaire and many were worried that this nutty horse would be too much for Nicholls’ second-string jockey to handle.  Dazza promptly blew away the field in the 2m chase, including that group one winner mentioned above, Somersby.  Sanctuaire can be backed at 14.5 on Betfair for the 2013 Champion Chase if you reckon he can outclass Sprinter Sacre.

Particular pleasure was also derived at Sandown from Joseph O’Brien’s unorthodox and savvy ride of Imperial Monarch as the jumps gave way to the flat, although I had sided with unfancied Thought Worthy for this four-horse race.  Trained by John Gosden and ridden by the jockey I’ve backed for the Flat Championship this summer, William Buick, I’ll keep an eye out for Thought Worthy this season.

***

The Palphabet National Hunt 2011-12 Gongs go to...

Horse – Chance du Roy – picked because I liked the name, stuck with because I enjoyed the returns.

Jockey – Brendan Powell (7... or is it 5) – big future ahead for him.

Trainer – Alan King – great stable of loveable beasts and top quality jockeys.

Bookmaker – Paddy Power – eye-catching offers and hilarious adverts.

Tipster – James Pyman – considered analysis, painstaking number crunching and insightful articles.

Track – Newbury – fell in love with racing here and my 30^th birthday sojourn was splendid.

Owner – Anthony Knott – Bugger the Cows! Need I say more?

Moment – Kauto Star at Kempton Park.

Cheltenham 2012 - Day 4

The dust has settled, the souvenir festival magazines have been published, the BBC has lost the rights to cover major horse races, and the time is right to have a glance through the legs of the fading hangover horse, as last week is pulled up to a spontaneous and heart-felt round of applause.

Ruby Walsh & Kauto Star prepare for battle

Having laid Long Run and followed Tom Segal in on Synchronised, I was never overly concerned about the winner of the Gold Cup on Friday as I had pretty much all eventualities covered (the fact that Nicky Henderson’s stable boy didn’t add the favourite in the 3.20 to his acca spoke volumes and I was happy to oppose The Dentist’s horse at 2-1).  I just wanted Kauto Star to come back unscathed.

Yes, having placed a 4pt wager at around 6-1, I would have preferred him to have gone all the way and cross the post ahead of his rivals, but the second it was realised that he was being led away from the track there was a wave of distinct emotion.  First, momentary deflation could be felt amongst the throngs of onlookers packed inside the enclosures.  This gave way to a palpable sense of relief (accompanied by the impromptu clapping) before finally, I think I felt a twinge of pride.  Proud to have been present to see him bowed out by the horseman who knows him best. 

Ruby Walsh demonstrated in two very different rides this week why he is such a lauded jockey – on Big Buck’s, who seemed to be cajoling his rider: “go on Rubes.. prove to me that you really want to win this fourth World Hurdle” – and then on Kauto: “come on Rubes.. I’m not right here fella.. let me bow out with dignity.”

The fact that AP McCoy went on to give Synchronised such a gritty, determined, talented and vein-bulging push to beat The Giant Bolster and Long Run up the hill, felt to me like a fitting tribute to Kauto and to Ruby.  Festival Gods seemed to be saying "If the people’s horse isn’t able to finish the race, let’s give the people another white-faced horse to love." 

Synchronised ain’t as pretty as Kauto, and AP’s ride was a real street brawl to watch, but it showed heart, and too many heads had backed Long Run for my liking.  Emotion and devotion won the Gold Cup on Friday in many ways.

Here’s how I finished the week from a gambling point of view. Relatively satisfied with the final figures, particularly after the run of losing bets on what I’m now dubbing “Black Wednesday,” there are a few lessons that have been learnt and some “what-ifs” to consider. Overall, though, I went with my gut, and loved every minute of it.



-£33.65 on Horse Racing over the festival.  Noteworthy profits were banked thanks to the 45-1 winner (0.5pt each way) in the Triumph Hurdle on Friday, Countrywide Flame.  I only got a text with the tip on the day so couldn't blog it in advance - sorry!  A close second to this was Sunnyhillboy, Tom Segal's tip in Thursday's amateur riders' handicap chase.  I also had a 10pt bet on Big Buck's to claim that fourth World Hurdle.  At 1.91 on Betfair, I thought this represented both great value and also provided the racing highlight of the week. 

Offers like Paddy Power's "money back special" in the Arkle meant that Sprinter Sacre could be cheered on readily as the bookmaker refunded my losing bet on Al Ferof.  Sprinter Sacre's performance was undoubtedly one of the moments of the week, and whilst many turf accountants' race day deals made me think that backing horses in the ante-post markets is becoming increasingly less attractive, I doubt Mark "The Couch" Winstanley will agree on this occasion.  He advised SS a couple of months ago, recommending a 10pt maximum stake at a monster price! 

Apart from £20 lost in cash on the tote at the track, and including this return of £65, my total P&L for the week came to about -£58 to goodness only knows what stake.  As a wise man once told me: turnover's vanity, profit is sanity. 

At the track: Palphabet pals Westdrop aka The Alpha (left), Norbet (right) and yours truly.

Westdrop tucks into our hosts' famous fry-up on festival Friday morning.

The Racing Post did a magnificent job of capturing the essence of the festival with some breathtaking front-page splashes.  Norbet and I were pleased that the local outlets had stocked up with copies of the 'paper.

As the festival draws to a close, the Palphabet gang contemplate what to do next. Synchronised seems smug at the enormity of his day's work, and back at the guest house, a little kratooie seems sad to have missed out on proceedings.

     



Jaegerbombs are ordered and consumed at the Racing Post party (sadly I couldn't find any of their journos to harrass, so pestered Mark Langdon on Twitter instead) and in the morning the tweed is packed away until next time.