Nicholls' Near Misses a Sign of Undervalued Opportunities?

To which page in your copy of the Racing Post do you most eagerly turn as you open the crisp inky paper or flick digitally across the cool glass of your tablet device?  If Segal is making an appearance, as he did yesterday and Friday with more successful selections for stalwarts of his suggestions, I head straight to his column.  Richard Hughes has been my next port of call over the flat season, followed perhaps by David Ashforth, whose hilarious musings never fail to entertain and amuse.

After those pages have been perused, though, I'll head to see what horses have gubbed the punters on the previous afternoon.  "Yesterday's Highlights", they somewhat disingenuously subtitle the section (although to be fair, they do draw one's attention to the huge in-play prices that winning horses could have been backed at too), this little grey box has not just got my goat this morning, it's goading my goat.  Grrrrr.

I didn't have huge confidence in Salubrious yesterday, and even less so after reading his trainer's unenthusiastic but frankly realistic appraisal of his chances in his excellent and insightful Betfair column.  But with some sentiment - Salubrious provided a 17/1 Cheltenham festival winner for this blog when he claimed the Martin Pipe Conditionals Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle in March - I thought he was worth an each-way bet at 14/1 yesterday and was encouraged when Segal picked his stablemate Southfield Theatre as I reckon Paul Nicholls' yard is being underestimated by the layers at present.

It's a genuine sign of the magic of this sport though, that when I watched the replay of the 3.00 handicap hurdle on Sky+ last night, I couldn't help but be moved by James Best's tearfully emotional interview with Alice Plunkett after he nicked the Nicholls' pair on the line to score at 20/1 on board Philip Hobbs's Return Spring.  It would have been splendid to have taken the full spoils from the scintillating sprint up the famous Cheltenham hill, but the sport rightly took centre stage ahead of my meaningless P&L spreadsheets:

On the whole, it was a profitable day's punting, with a 3pt stake on Champagne Fever looking about as safe as the debut chaser's jumping looked competently assured.  I did set an unmatched lay before the off, which as you can see was matched shortly before the second last fence, just in case.  Ruby looked very happy on board as it completed a quickfire treble for him at the start of yesterday's Punchestown card, and he's surely going to be even more delighted when he guides Hurricane Fly to a record breaking 17th Grade 1 victory later today.  My £20 double on the Mullins bankers returns just £12 profit - a testament to the high esteem in which they are both held by the bookies.  Segal's tips of Fergal O'Brien's Bradley and Alvarado in the 1.50 at Cheltenham were confidently conveyed in his column and the latter proved him correct, causing me to collect :)

Onto today's racing, and I do really fancy Paul Nicholls to have a fruitful afternoon, not just at Prestbury Park, but over in Sussex at Fontwell too.  It would really set the scene beautifully for Saturday's hotly contested Betfair "Lancashire" Chase if Silviniaco Conti's stablemates return to Ditcheat later today, full of beans, neighing merrily, and send him up the M6 next week with loveable nutter Tidal Bay raring to take on Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant, Long Run and Charlie Hall Chase winner Harry Topper.

1.00 Cheltenham - Pay the King - Bumper winning Nicholls horse with Harry Derham taking off three pounds.  Lieutenant Miller has been out and about as a flat stayer this summer, notching up victories under Tom Queally and Graham Lee before coming a creditable third in the Cesarewitch priced up at 10/1.  Holds less betting appeal at 4/1 this afternoon but is the clear alternative to 15/2 shot Pay the King.

1.35 Cheltenham - Lac Fontana - Clifford Baker's dark horse popped up in my At The Races "Tracker" email this morning.  A 7/1 shot in a small field, worth a small bet as Sea Lord and The Liquidator hog the pre-race headlines.

2.10 Cheltenham - This is a tricky one, with Raya Star, Dodging Bullets and Ted Veale all there or thereabouts in the betting.  Probably the one Nicholls will win with DB, as I am siding with Cheltenham Festival winner and useful flat performer, Teddy V.

2.40 Cheltenham - Just wonder if former Nicholls horse Tataniano isn't worth giving another vote of confidence at a big outside price of 22 on Betfair.  Wearing the famous red and white colours of Big Buck's, he's a memorable horse, although I dug out this article from 2010 that Mr Nicholls would probably rather forget!

2.55 Fontwell - Benvolio (NAP) - With Ruby Walsh off the books at Ditcheat, I think the line up of jockeys should be able to be compared with the squad of Tottenham Hotspur this year.  Losing a superstar, but gaining a balance.. Sadly for Spurs fans, they are playing dreadfully dour football, while Nicholls has at his disposal his number 1 Daryl Jacob, claimer Harry Derham, a pumped-up Twiston-Davies and one of my Twitter faves, Nick "Melodic Rendezvous" Scholfield, who takes the reins on this even money banker today.  I know who I would rather be watching ply their trade this term and it's not the scum from Edmonton!

3.15 Cheltenham - Flaxen Flare - easy one for me this as FF gave me a huge 31/1 boost on Day 3 of last season's festival.  Was 12/1 this morning, but has been clipped into around 8s since Segal selected him again, lauding his trainer Gordon Elliott and describing today's conditions for the four-year-old as "perfect".

3.50 Cheltenham - One last Nicholls stab - Southfield Vic - same colours and close relative of the aforementioned near-misser from yesterday, and PFN seems more confident about this one than he did about that!

Over in Ireland, blog favourite and new Racing Post columnist Bryan Cooper has a good book of rides, picking up strongly-fancied Don Cossack from the banned Davy Russell in the 1.40 Novice Chase.  While the only bet I've had over there is on Hurricane Fly in the fourteen-fifteen formality, why not have a look at this blog from my Twitter pal Steve, as he seems to have a good handle on things over the water.

Betfair versus the Bookies - The Virtues of Value

The blog below is also available on www.golf-monthly.co.uk as an edited article.  I have been blogging for GM over the past few months now and am thoroughly enjoying the opportunity given to me by the country's best golf mag.  Thanks TC ; )

Stenson won!  StensWon, as he shall be known forthwith, rewarded loyal backers with a 35/1 Betfair booty bonus and delightfully demonstrated two things.  Firstly, that it’s prudent to peruse the punting purveyors for prices, and secondly that persistence and consistency lead to confidence and prosperity.

Heroic Henrik was 28/1 with BetVictor before the off last week, 25/1 with all other bookmakers, but was being readily layed (or laid, if you’re that way inclined) at 36 on the exchange. 

 

Minus Betfair’s commission (usually around 4-5% unless you roll high on a regular basis – mine is currently 4.8%), profit on the £20 win-only stake (before being offset against losses) was a devilish 666 pounds and forty pence.  The same money with Mr Chandler would have returned you £560, a shortfall of £106.40.  So don’t get sucked in by those ridiculous Dennis Pennis adverts.

 

 

Equally, don’t always assume that you have to be with Betfair to “Cash Out”, or that they are the only firm offering value.  Yes, their interface makes the ability for punters to hedge bets condescendingly easy (as shown below), and yes, they are often better priced than the market (as they were last week for StensWon), but you are not “settling for less” every time you opt to place your bets the old fashioned way.

Rather than "Cash Out", I normally favour hedging my bets manually by "laying off", particularly when I still have faith in my original selection

 

In this week’s Omega European Masters, with no FedEx Cup stuff in America, focus is fully on Europe, and I like one of the market leaders: Brett Rumford.  Similarly to StensWon (and this also incorporates my second theme: form), the multiple European Tour winning Australian has been in scintillating nick this term, notching up two titles and two strong top ten finishes in the past two weeks. 

Betfair have Rumford at 32 (31/1 in fractional odds).  He is currently 33/1 with bwin.com and Bet365.  Annoyingly bwin.com don’t do each-way terms.  This is particularly unfortunate for me since Bet365 restricted my account to Granny-bets after I took them to the cleaners in a three month winning window of wonder earlier this year, but I digress.   

Knock off your commission on a £20 stake with Betfair and you pocket £590.24 with them versus £660 with Bet365 (although don’t expect to be able to get a score on with the Stoke-based bookie the following week if Rumford revels!)

I also fancy Frederik Andersson Hed this weekend (runner-up at the stunning Crans-sur-Sierre last year, sixth in 2011 – again; form, consistency).  I don’t need to demonstrate the mathematics for you to work out that you’re better off with Betfair at 95 than you are with the bookies at 80/1. 

If the prices are the same on the exchange as they are with your bookie, it goes without saying you should take your business to the latter, who won’t take any commission if you win (but will take all your losses if you lose, unlike Betfair, who only take their commission fee).

Clear?  Great!

***

Aside from the golf, it's been an eventful few weeks at Palphabet towers.  Actually, that's utter drivel because I haven't spent an awful lot of time here at HQ.  I ventured on an eight-day professional sojourn to Melbourne and Sydney, which involved five days of work, two days of enjoyment, and a day of travelling.

The enjoyment came in droves (whatever they are).  Giant scoops of sporting droves served up in a double-schooner of MCG-branded beakers.  Yes, the Melbourne Cricket Ground was every bit the legendary venue it is cracked up to be. 

 

 

Talking of crack, or craic, Ireland was my next stop, where our friends’ wedding took us from County Monaghan to Galway City, fuelled by the black stuff and the rich tobacco of tightly rolled Cuban cigars.  All the while the gambling has been going well, until the new Premier League Football season started.

 

 

A Full Head on the Pints Only

 

Mrs Palphabet (right) and Her Pal Jules Sampling the Local Beverages

 

Finally, a trip last weekend to the Salisbury Plain.  A visit to Richard Hannon’s yard to see my mate’s new syndicated horse, Mr Greenspan.

 

 

Hannon's Gallops and Popular Filly Maureen

 

Up Close and Personal with Mr Greenspan - a HUGE two year-old colt

 

Watch this space for a more detailed blog on Mr G and the MCG, coming soon.

 

Palphabet

Continuing to Weave Pure Cotton Enjoyment into The Rich Tapestry of Life

 



An Unwelcome Week of Woe - Cheers Bubba!

The blog below is available on www.golf-monthly.co.uk as an edited article.  I have been blogging for GM over the past 10 weeks now and am thoroughly enjoying the opportunity given to me by the country's best golf mag.  Thanks TC ; )

 

 

You’re welcome.  That’s what Bubba Watson says on many a YouTube video like that one, joshing around and playing the fool like someone who doesn’t take life too seriously, albeit while hitting some pretty impressive and entertaining shots, occasionally of blancmange rather than a little white ball.  

Bubba actually wrongly displays the text “your welcome”, after the above clip, his incorrect grammar and complete disrespect for apostrophes perhaps betraying his lack of education through total dedication to his sport.  Or maybe he’s just thick.  Or “dumb”, as he admits in this PGA interview.

    

The phrase ‘you’re welcome’ is usually preceded by someone thanking you for a kind gesture.  Well, this past week I have certainly not been offering any gratitude in the direction of Mr Watson. 

His caddy probably wasn’t too impressed either, after Bubba’s collapse on the par-three 16^th saw him turn a two-shot lead at the head of the scoreboard into a one-shot deficit, ultimately relinquishing the title, he took his dissatisfaction out on his assistant.  

This blog http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/06/bubba-watson-blew-up-on-his-caddie-in-the-nicest-way-possible/ makes the salient point that Bubba was just doing at the Travelers Championship (one L, no apostrophes? Weird...) what most amateurs do on courses around the world every day – blame someone else for their mistakes – well, in that case, I am blaming the 2012 Masters Champion for my losses last weekend.

 

 

Me and Bubba (or rather, Bubba and I) have previous, as his playoff win against Louis Oosthuizen cost me Augusta profit last year.  Having sided with the South African for the coveted Green Jacket, it was agonising to see that big hook land where it did, denying me a four-figure payout.   Last weekend brought all those miserable memories flooding forlornly back into my bitter, sorrowful soul.

To compound the discontent, I layed my entire book against Ken Duke winning, meaning that any of Chris Stroud, Graham DeLaet, heck – even Bubba Watson himself, emerged victorious, I wouldn’t lose anything.  Duke had never been crowned victorious in his journeyman career, hit 999/1 on Betfair at one point as the chart below painfully portrays, and so I thought the £215 lay at 1.41 was a reasonable course of action.  He went on to win, I went to bed a loser for the second week running.





For this week’s AT&T National and Irish Open I went hard (well, £15.12 each way) on a Seung-Yul Noh/Graeme McDowell double.  Noh was fourth in the US event last year and was priced up a 150/1 outsider, while G Mac, despite missing the cut at the US Open and at this course twice, where he has also never managed to record a score under-par, appealed at 18/1 (for some reason) with SportingBet offering six place each way terms.

That would have given you a 46.5 bag return, had McDowell not missed the cut and Noh not been +5 when I last looked:  You’re welcome!



 

 

***

 

Feedback from your friends can come in many guises: "your hair looks shit", "you were an absolute liability last week", "your missus is gonna leave you when she makes her first million in business" are just a few examples of the more publishable words of wisdom given to me by my mates over the years. 

 

This week, I was informed that Palphabet was becoming little more than a copy & paste exercise for Golf Monthly, that I hadn't written anything about racing for two months (that's a lie, by the way), and that therefore, no one would bother reading it.

 

Well, if you've got this far, I thought I'd reluctantly listen to the lads and go back to my roots. 

 

Various expired bank cards have meant that my multitude of accounts with online bookmakers required some spring-cleaning.  Since Bet365, a favourite of mine throughout late 2012 and into early 2013, have decided to severely restrict (/ban) me from trading with them, I've had some decisions to make.

 

The P&L for May, across all of my accounts looked like this:

 

 

 

Since then, due mostly to debit card admin rather than any particular problems with online betting shops,  I've only been playing around with Betfair (and their new Sportsbook), SportingBet, Coral and my new favourite, Stan James.  Stan's golf prices are often the best around, even better than the Betfair exchange prices available (with no commission taken on winners), and I like the fact that their spokesman @roryjiwani regularly retweets links to my blogs!

 

One of the most satisfying events of recent weeks has been renewing my piece of Barclays plastic and having it emblazoned with the two greatest steeplechasers of my short love affair with horseracing.

 

 

 

The fact that I have chosen those two equine characters, rather than Frankel and Sea the Stars perhaps explains why my writing on the sport has been fairly limited since the Aintree Festival.  No matter how hard I try, and I do enjoy it, I just can't find enough inspiration in flat racing to put pen to paper with the same passion as I do over the colder and darker months of the year. 

 

Seeing champion of jumps Nicky Henderson get a 12/1 winner at Royal Ascot gave me more pleasure this "summer" than any winner I've had over a seven furlongs, and it speaks volumes that the main mention on these pages with regards to The Sport of Kings has been a genuine and heartfelt tribute to Sir Henry Cecil.

 

So, with only a passing interest in the Confederations Cup, a mild understanding of the betting markets surrounding Rugby Union and my small but long standing bets on the next Manchester United manager to follow SAF successfully settled, my current bets and conversational focus has been limited thus:

 

 

 

Sports Personality of the Year 2013 (for which I assume the Racing Post is still suffering a gagging order), antepost golf betting and the winner of Wimbledon Men's tournament dominates the screen above and are likely only to be given company by a few stabs on Le Tour, as I attempt to improve my knowledge of a sport that appears to offer entertainment and value in abundance, but about which I have very little knowledge, and of course, The Ashes.

 

So there we are - Palphabet has become rather more focused on golf, granted, but there's still plenty to discuss away from the fairways and greens.... that is until the proper beasts start galloping their way towards fences at least four feet and six inches tall and I can get stuck in with pen and pound once again.

 



***

UPDATE: Sunday Morning, 10am.....

 

These were the results of yesterday's picks at Newcastle, Newmarket and Curragh.  It's almost as though the lords of the flat were listening to me slagging off their noble sport, and decided to woo me with a fine fillip:

 

 

It's Wentworth Shopping Around for the Best Prices

For the past couple of weeks, I've had the honour of writing a review blog for the website of quality magazine Golf Monthly. This piece appears on there via this link, and my first two blogs can be found here and here...

The betting bus bowled into Bulgaria last weekend to break-in a virgin course already being dubbed “Europe’s Pebble Beach” and so it was apt that Graeme McDowell should walk away with the World Matchplay Title, having been crowned US Open Champion at THE Pebble three years ago.   I’ve backed him to regain the US Open title this summer, so was especially pleased to see him come home at 8/1 from Thongchai Jaidee.

McDowell was tipped up by GM’s Nick Bonfield last week, and on the offical European Tour Podcast by Richard Boxall, who successfully selected Tiger Woods the week before.  It’s a broadcast well worth listening to as part of your weekly punting preparations: http://www.europeantour.com/videoaudio/audio/index.html

En route to the title, G Mac beat defending champion Nicolas Colsaerts, who got bogged down and had to take a dump – sorry, drop – in the toilets.  Although flushed, the Belgian didn’t let it wipe him away, halving the hole before eventually plunging to a 2&1 defeat.

Elsewhere in Europe, 2010 U.S. Amateur champion Peter Uihlein caught the eye, earning not only his maiden victory at the Madeira Open, but receiving a tour exemption until the end of the 2014 season in the process.  Many top players hold the U.S. Amateur title amongst their myriad accomplishments, including Matt Kuchar, Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods.  So Pistol Pete, (whose father Wally is the CEO of Titleist and Footjoy) is in good company, and will surely always be able to blag top stash from his old man to ensure he has the right tools for the job. 

He was a 25/1 shot before the tournament, carded a second round 64 that included an eagle and two bogeys, was 15/8 going into the final round, and won by two shots from Denmark’s Morten Ørum Madsen (what’s that “Ø” all about?)  I only had small stakes on this event and won nothing.

 

In America, I was delighted with Martin Kaymer’s performance, having backed him at 70 for the win and 6.2 for a top 10 finish.  When I doubled him up each-way with Madsen’s compatriot Thorbjørn Olesen, I thought it would be the German former world number one who would let me down.  Thorbjørn, however, crashed out of the World Matchplay at the group stage and ended my chance of a four-figure profit before the weekend began.  It must be something about those strange letter Øs:  Bøøøøø! 

 

 

This weekend, it's the flagship event on the European Tour, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.  Since I've started really shopping around for my bets I'm keeping a note of them on my phone so I don't forget where I've backed winners, top 10s, top 5s, each-ways, doubles, exchange bets, fixed odds, decimals, fractions.. it all gets a bit much to remember, especially when you pick 10 (TEN) players for the weekend's entertainment!  It's definitely worth it, though, and I'm sure it's making me think more about what I am doing, even if it's not a guaranteed gateway to golf gambling gains.

My headlines for the European Tour are Martin Kaymer (£50 e-w 33/1 with Paddy Power paying 6 places) and Branden Grace (£25 win at 50/1 with Betway, £25 top 10 at 6 on Betfair).  I fancy one of these to break the recent English stronghold over the tournament so I'm sticking with the improving Kaymer, who has finished 31st and 15th here in the past two outings, and Grace, who was 5th last year and finished 3rd last week in the World Matchplay. 

Whilst Garcia crossed my mind, he is in a right state following this highly public ding-dong with his equally quarrelsome but superiorly talented sparring partner Mr Tiger Woods, and I wouldn't be surprised if he missed the cut.  A real shame it's descended into this as both have been playing some spectacular stuff of late.

I also like Kevin Streelman in the US PGA event at Colonial, who went extremely close to winning me five grand at Augusta the other week, and is the selection of Steve Palmer from the Racing Post and Dave Kelner from the William Hill Golf Betting Podcast.  I'll back him outright, but have doubled him up with Kaymer in the hope of winning 20 bags by Sunday night.

 

 

Punchestown Day 1: Go Bigg on the Gigg

One of the seriously serendipitous side-effects of this chest infection I’m currently suffering is the sleeplessness associated with consistent coughing.   Couple that with anticipation for the beginning of this year’s Punchestown Festival and you get the perfect recipe for early-morning blog writing. 

St G: Character on a Horse

With only next weekend’s Ultimate Celebration Meeting at Sandown remaining on this year’s national hunt agenda proper, it’s almost time to reflect on another exciting year in the sport of kings and queen.  Despite the overpowering patriotism felt at Palphabet HQ today though, on this day of our patron Saint George (himself an accomplished horseman by all accounts), it is vital to keep the emotion of Englishness at bay when looking at this afternoon’s big-race card in Ireland.

Boasting three opening day Grade 1 races, Tuesday 23^rd April looks very much geared up to be dominated by home-trained horses, with the notable and hugely exhilarating exception of English raider Sprinter Sacre.  Nicky Henderson’s superstar travels overseas for the first time, where he is sure to continue answering questions on the track with an exuberant arrogance unparalleled by his peers at present, and a disdain that eclipses even the way in which Jeremy Paxman asks the questions on University Challenge.   

So let’s hope, at the gong, that we can get a few answers ourselves.  The first race of the day is the 3.40 three-mile chase:

Zest for Life at 5/1 isn’t a bet I would be hanging today’s gambling hat on.  The soft ground doesn’t appear to be particularly in the favour of the 2010 winner of this race, whose trainer and track specialist Enda Bolger (19% success rate here from 83 runs) admitted prefers quicker conditions.   At the price though, and with a 7lb claimant on board, Zest is preferred over favourite and stablemate Near Perfection, who is nearer 5/2 in the betting.

4.20’s Grade 1 two-mile novice hurdle sees a mouth-watering rematch of Cheltenham’s Supreme Novice Hurdle.  Winner Champagne Fever and third-place Jezki are back on home soil and looking to take advantage of the absence of My Tent or Yours, runner-up in March and subsequent winner in the lower class novice hurdle at Aintree earlier this month.  

Festival Fillip

Mullins and Walsh got my 2013 festival off to a cork-popping flyer with a 6/1 fillip but I’m going to desert the dream duo today and side with Davy Russell’s Gigginstown House Stud mount, Rule the World at 9/2.  A four-length defeat at the hands of The New One in the 2m 5f Neptune Novices’ Hurdle was form-franked in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle, Rule the World only has a few pounds to find on the two market leaders here, and has beaten an off-colour Champagne Fever in Ireland before.  Ted Veale, a big priced Palphabet winner of the Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, is rated 10 pounds lower than Rule the World so I have to rule him out. 

It's worth pointing out at this stage, that BetVictor.com are giving punters their money back if your horse finished 2nd to a Willie Mullins winner.  Could prove a useful insurance policy here and in the 6.40.

 4.55 Handicap Hurdle:  Looking down the weights at another horse owned by the GHS, Beef to the Heels is my meaty selection here.  Priced at 43/1 on Betfair, 25/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power (who pay five places each-way in this race) and intriguingly only 20/1 with magic sign firm Ladbrokes, who are renowned for their Irish knowledge, I’ll be getting the knife and fork out on this slice of betting beef.  Trained by Gordon Elliott, this course and distance winner is ridden by Miss Jane Mangan, who is 2-3 on him and 6-9 when booked by Elliott.  In a competitive handicap like this, the jockey’s knowledge of her horse is nearly as important as her 5lb allowance.  Nearly.

Still got £12 of this bet unmatched

5.30 Champion Chase:  I see no reason not to follow up the exacta from the Cheltenham Queen Mother Champion Chase with the same bet here.  Sprinter Sacre win, Sizing Europe next.  Could be a similar procession, but Sprinter Sacre has not been treated to the same break as his nearest rival here, so a 20-length demolition job may not be repeated.  Sacre continues to deliver though so who knows – the gap between these two might be even bigger!

Swerving the bumper, where Mullins’s Moyle Park is strongly fancied, the 6.40 Champion Novice Chase is the final Grade 1 of the opening day and Ruby Walsh looks to have a huge chance to extend Back in Focus’s winning run to five races.  Pricewise has selected Dedigout, and with two of my earlier selections adorned in the iconic maroon and white star of the aforementioned Irish racing powerhouse, the Gigginstown House Stud (owned by shrinking violet and Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary), who am I to disagree?  If you read this before 8.30am today, wait until then, when you should be able to get a better price than the 5/1 or 11/2 available right now (some bookmakers agree to hold the price at which Tom Segal tips his horses for about 15 minutes from 8.30am and Dedigout was put up in today’s Racing Post at 13/2).

With a "powerful three-horse assault" on tomorrow’s Punchestown Gold Cup, this could be a big week for the Gigg – they are represented by Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant and Quito de la Roque in Wednesday’s fascinating contest.

*** 

A final word for this fantastic festival - the timings of the races are excellent and more or less allow full enjoyment without the risk of being sacked for diving into a betting shop every half-hour.  Even if I wasn't off sick with this blasted chest infection, I'm still confident I would be able to tuck in with almost weekend-esque abandon.  Enjoy!

 

The Master is Back and Confident - Back him for the Masters with Confidence

On the eve of Augusta, with the Masters 2013 app downloaded, the William Hill Golf Betting Podcast digested, and the merits of contenders debated, the bets are decided.

Essential Listening

As I've discussed before, I follow Steve Palmer in the Racing Post, have a good look at Jeremy Chapman in the Racing Post and Plus, and add into that the insight provided by the podcast boys, who often highlight key stats and posit thoughtful theories.



So with that in mind, the Palphabet Portfolio for the next four days looks thus:



Headline Pick - Tiger Woods: £200 at 9/2 Betfred; £100 e/w PP

Betfred went 9/2 about the four time Masters champ earlier in the week and a few other firms followed.  Stan James were top price in the market, meaning they had to match Fred "hopefully he'll get" Done until this evening, when they clipped him into 4/1.  Paddy Power offered the same price, but have the added advantage that they pay 6-places each-way, should you wish to cover yourself if he doesn't triumph.  Some bookies are also refunding losing bets if Tiger and/or Rory McIlroy win, so it's worth shopping around for deals.

Betfred Slip Posing on a Perfect Masters App Picture

Betfred Stake Split Each Way with PP

I had a huge win on Tiger in the WGC Cadillac early in March, when he was sent off at a price as Blue Monstrous at the famous course at which he has repeated romped home: 11/1.  These odds grossly underestimated his majesty around Doral and I believe both his game, and his temperament are now sufficiently balanced to suggest he can find familiarity in his prior successes at Augusta as he did in Florida a few weeks ago.

Thoughtful as always, the WH Podcast boys pointed out that the fairways at Augusta are backcombed in the same way as a balding man might sculpt his hair back across his bonce.  This is significant in golf, less so in male grooming, as the "carry" a player can achieve off the tee means his ball is less likely to meet friction as it attempts to gain extra roll distance.  Steve Palmer rates power as the key attribute for success at Augusta, hence his picking of Keegan Bradley and Dustin Johnson, and it is reassuring to see Tiger Woods and DJ right up there at the top of the "carry" stats, with Tiger rated the best on tour: http://www.pgatour.com/content/pgatour/stats/stat.02409.html

Colsaerts is one I strongly DON'T want to win this weekend.  I've picked a lot of golfers to have onside and I think Nic has a solid game, evidenced by his Ryder Cup performance last summer (another time Betfred offered a cracking deal - 2/1 Europe to win the tournament).  In the Europe vs USA spectacle, in two rounds of fourball matches, Colsaerts made 11 birdies and one eagle and was as unflappable as that bird of prey is flappy.  His lack of track experience, however, puts me off.  He's a debutant here so I'm reluctantly leaving him out of the punting pack.  Talented Dane Thorbjørn Olesen is another first-timer that I will watch with trepidation if he starts getting hot.  His recent injury, whiplash sustained in a car accident, will surely be enough to stop him driving his way to success?  Sorry.

Best Supporting Act - Louis Oosthuizen: £60 win at 34 on Betfair

I've supplemented this outright bet with £50 on the exchange matched at 7.8 for a top 5 finish.  After missing his first three cuts in the Masters, I had Louis to win it when sent off at 90/1 last year before Bubba beat him in a playoff after Mickelson fell away in the closing stages and I don't want to miss out on any place money again this time around.  That memorable albatross on the par-5 second hole, "Pink Dogwood", was one of Sky's top 10 all-time Masters shots.  A beauty indeed it was, although for me Tiger's touch around the 16th green on his way to the 2005 title still gives me goosefistpumples and gets my vote.

Louis has the power to set himself up for eagles and birdies on the longer holes and, although recent form reads 32/CUT/33/CUT/10, he won the Volvo Championship in his native South Africa on the European Tour this season and is subsequently still ranked 6th in the world, behind Snedeker, Donald, Rose, McIlroy and our top pick, the Tiger.


Antepost Fancy - Graeme McDowell: £25 at 61.6 on Betfair

Backed him for this tournament the same weekend Tiger won the Cadillac.  G Mac had three eye-catching consecutive rounds of -6, -5 and -3 before closing on Sunday with a disappointing even par round to finish tied third with Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and "Lefty" Phil Mickelson, who closed with a stunning -8, a decent -3 and an ordinary -1 respectively.  The last of that trio, though, Big Phil, is another I am fearing this coming weekend.  In the past five years his record in the Masters reads third last year, 27th, 1st, 5th, 5th.  Much like Bubba, who I have backed, Phil's shot shaping is ideal for Augusta, and both have demonstrated unbelievable shots from the trees in recent years to clinch their green jackets.

Since letting the runner-up spot slip away in Florida, we've only seen McDowell play once.  He ended up 45th at the Arnold Palmer, which was again won by Tiger at a course he loves, Bay Hill.   When he hasn't missed the cut at Augusta though, and he did in 2011 and 2010, G Mac has been there or thereabouts, with a 12 and a 17 against his name.  His accent is practically American, he seems happy and confident and unlike Donald, Westwood and Poulter, he is a Brit with a major under his belt.  The price seems to offer a decent each-way prospect.

Best of the Rest

When Jeremy Chapman AND Steve Palmer fancy a 200/1 outsider, you simply have to take heed.  When that contender, another South African, leads the European Tour's "Race to Dubai", has the 3rd best scoring average out there (behind Woods and Sned) and has a win and a 2nd place against his name this term then you'd be crazy not to chuck some cash down.  The chap in question, Richard Sterne, is begging to be backed, with Paddy Power's additional each-way place firmly coming into play.


The staking plan is completed with bets on 2011 USPGA Champion Keegan Bradley; huge hitting Dustin Johnson; last year's winner Bubba the Blubber (did you see his press conference yesterday?) and consistently competitive Hunter Mahan, who credited himself with a runner-up cheque in the recent WGC Matchplay tournament.