Betfair versus the Bookies - The Virtues of Value

The blog below is also available on www.golf-monthly.co.uk as an edited article.  I have been blogging for GM over the past few months now and am thoroughly enjoying the opportunity given to me by the country's best golf mag.  Thanks TC ; )

Stenson won!  StensWon, as he shall be known forthwith, rewarded loyal backers with a 35/1 Betfair booty bonus and delightfully demonstrated two things.  Firstly, that it’s prudent to peruse the punting purveyors for prices, and secondly that persistence and consistency lead to confidence and prosperity.

Heroic Henrik was 28/1 with BetVictor before the off last week, 25/1 with all other bookmakers, but was being readily layed (or laid, if you’re that way inclined) at 36 on the exchange. 

 

Minus Betfair’s commission (usually around 4-5% unless you roll high on a regular basis – mine is currently 4.8%), profit on the £20 win-only stake (before being offset against losses) was a devilish 666 pounds and forty pence.  The same money with Mr Chandler would have returned you £560, a shortfall of £106.40.  So don’t get sucked in by those ridiculous Dennis Pennis adverts.

 

 

Equally, don’t always assume that you have to be with Betfair to “Cash Out”, or that they are the only firm offering value.  Yes, their interface makes the ability for punters to hedge bets condescendingly easy (as shown below), and yes, they are often better priced than the market (as they were last week for StensWon), but you are not “settling for less” every time you opt to place your bets the old fashioned way.

Rather than "Cash Out", I normally favour hedging my bets manually by "laying off", particularly when I still have faith in my original selection

 

In this week’s Omega European Masters, with no FedEx Cup stuff in America, focus is fully on Europe, and I like one of the market leaders: Brett Rumford.  Similarly to StensWon (and this also incorporates my second theme: form), the multiple European Tour winning Australian has been in scintillating nick this term, notching up two titles and two strong top ten finishes in the past two weeks. 

Betfair have Rumford at 32 (31/1 in fractional odds).  He is currently 33/1 with bwin.com and Bet365.  Annoyingly bwin.com don’t do each-way terms.  This is particularly unfortunate for me since Bet365 restricted my account to Granny-bets after I took them to the cleaners in a three month winning window of wonder earlier this year, but I digress.   

Knock off your commission on a £20 stake with Betfair and you pocket £590.24 with them versus £660 with Bet365 (although don’t expect to be able to get a score on with the Stoke-based bookie the following week if Rumford revels!)

I also fancy Frederik Andersson Hed this weekend (runner-up at the stunning Crans-sur-Sierre last year, sixth in 2011 – again; form, consistency).  I don’t need to demonstrate the mathematics for you to work out that you’re better off with Betfair at 95 than you are with the bookies at 80/1. 

If the prices are the same on the exchange as they are with your bookie, it goes without saying you should take your business to the latter, who won’t take any commission if you win (but will take all your losses if you lose, unlike Betfair, who only take their commission fee).

Clear?  Great!

***

Aside from the golf, it's been an eventful few weeks at Palphabet towers.  Actually, that's utter drivel because I haven't spent an awful lot of time here at HQ.  I ventured on an eight-day professional sojourn to Melbourne and Sydney, which involved five days of work, two days of enjoyment, and a day of travelling.

The enjoyment came in droves (whatever they are).  Giant scoops of sporting droves served up in a double-schooner of MCG-branded beakers.  Yes, the Melbourne Cricket Ground was every bit the legendary venue it is cracked up to be. 

 

 

Talking of crack, or craic, Ireland was my next stop, where our friends’ wedding took us from County Monaghan to Galway City, fuelled by the black stuff and the rich tobacco of tightly rolled Cuban cigars.  All the while the gambling has been going well, until the new Premier League Football season started.

 

 

A Full Head on the Pints Only

 

Mrs Palphabet (right) and Her Pal Jules Sampling the Local Beverages

 

Finally, a trip last weekend to the Salisbury Plain.  A visit to Richard Hannon’s yard to see my mate’s new syndicated horse, Mr Greenspan.

 

 

Hannon's Gallops and Popular Filly Maureen

 

Up Close and Personal with Mr Greenspan - a HUGE two year-old colt

 

Watch this space for a more detailed blog on Mr G and the MCG, coming soon.

 

Palphabet

Continuing to Weave Pure Cotton Enjoyment into The Rich Tapestry of Life

 



Palphabet's Summer of Love... Loving It

It’s been an interesting summer at Palphabet HQ, dominated by both the attending and planning of stag weekends and weddings.  My brother got hitched, my pal Mowells endured a highland game themed send-off into marital bliss and just this weekend my old housemate Dicky aka Turps / Uncle Fester / Dot Cotton etc tied the knot up in Doncaster.  Love is well and truly in the air.

Tossing the Caber in Scotland

Dicky - A Man of a Hundred Faces

This would normally leave little time for keyboard-bashing, but coupled with the fact that I am also getting married next month, and it’s been pretty difficult to sit   down and write anything on here.  Then I saw that Scott Ferguson was flexing his influential blog-community muscles, perhaps in frustrated response to his country’s dismal performance thus far at the Olympics, so I thought I better post something.

I’m off to the Olympic Park this afternoon to watch Andy Murray v Roger Federer on the big screen before heading into the stadium for the finals of the women’s 400m, the men’s hammer throw, and the blue riband event, the men’s 100m dash.  Do they still make Blue Riband chocolate bars?  I enjoyed those.

Watching Mo Farah on TV last night was emotional – he was on the bridle the whole way round and on that final lap demonstrated a rapid turn of foot with such assurance that my 4pt stake at evens on Betfair was never in doubt.  My pokes into the SPOTY market also look in reasonable shape.  Yes, Wiggins appears a certainty, but his price has drifted from 1.12 to 1.42 over the past few days, and I simultaneously layed him and snapped up £37 of Mo at 24s, which should provide ample trading opportunity as the months roll on and the collective idiocy of the British public phone up and vote for a Ryan Giggs-esque character.

The Olympics on the BBC have been wonderful.  The theme tune is sublime and the coverage has been a joy to behold.  Kudos also to the Sky+ team, who have updated their iPhone App with the requisite BBC channels dedicated to broadcasting every event of the games in a show of stunning broadcasting commitment. 

But one word of dissatisfaction.  Have you noticed this not just creeping, but dive-bombing into the audio commentary: “I’m sat watching the handball...” or “I’m stood here with so-and-so” ?

It’s “sitting” and “standing”.  Mark Chapman is excellent in so many ways, but his insistence on using past-tense terminology to describe something he is currently doing is irritating at best, abysmal at worst.  I’m all for regional presenters reaching the pinnacle of their profession, and I’m no fan of received pronunciation, but this lack of respect for the English language is grating.  Beeb: Sort it out.

***

In more positive news, I’ve been delighted to see the return to form of Tom Segal over the past few weeks.  His Glorious Goodwood form has been gloriously good and has provided a couple of much needed wins to counter a few weeks of dearth.  Laying Adam Scott in the Open felt like a massive win – I was exposed to the tune of over £500 if he had prevailed – but I was also gutted for Scotty and in reality my only “winnings” from that event were “not losing a monkey”.  He has bags of talent and played beautifully for 68 holes on the Lancashire links.  Presuming he’s reading this, I would advise him to ditch both the ridiculous long putter and his caddy.  He has the grit to bounce back and compete again in next week’s US PGA, for which he’s trading at 33-1.  Louis Oosthuizen is currently in contention at the WGC Firestone but a six-and-a-half-grand windfall looks out of reach following Rafael C-B’s horror show third round seven-over-par yesterday.

Finally, a word for Frankel.  In his season as a four-year-old I have had my biggest and smallest ever single bet on him.  Whether at 1/3 or 1/20, it's nice to be on!  Both gave me huge pleasure and I’m certainly intrigued and exhilarated by the prospect of seeing him step up in trip.  His wonder-sire, Galileo, must be very proud, if you permit me a momentary anthropomorphic indulgence.