The Master is Back and Confident - Back him for the Masters with Confidence

On the eve of Augusta, with the Masters 2013 app downloaded, the William Hill Golf Betting Podcast digested, and the merits of contenders debated, the bets are decided.

Essential Listening

As I've discussed before, I follow Steve Palmer in the Racing Post, have a good look at Jeremy Chapman in the Racing Post and Plus, and add into that the insight provided by the podcast boys, who often highlight key stats and posit thoughtful theories.



So with that in mind, the Palphabet Portfolio for the next four days looks thus:



Headline Pick - Tiger Woods: £200 at 9/2 Betfred; £100 e/w PP

Betfred went 9/2 about the four time Masters champ earlier in the week and a few other firms followed.  Stan James were top price in the market, meaning they had to match Fred "hopefully he'll get" Done until this evening, when they clipped him into 4/1.  Paddy Power offered the same price, but have the added advantage that they pay 6-places each-way, should you wish to cover yourself if he doesn't triumph.  Some bookies are also refunding losing bets if Tiger and/or Rory McIlroy win, so it's worth shopping around for deals.

Betfred Slip Posing on a Perfect Masters App Picture

Betfred Stake Split Each Way with PP

I had a huge win on Tiger in the WGC Cadillac early in March, when he was sent off at a price as Blue Monstrous at the famous course at which he has repeated romped home: 11/1.  These odds grossly underestimated his majesty around Doral and I believe both his game, and his temperament are now sufficiently balanced to suggest he can find familiarity in his prior successes at Augusta as he did in Florida a few weeks ago.

Thoughtful as always, the WH Podcast boys pointed out that the fairways at Augusta are backcombed in the same way as a balding man might sculpt his hair back across his bonce.  This is significant in golf, less so in male grooming, as the "carry" a player can achieve off the tee means his ball is less likely to meet friction as it attempts to gain extra roll distance.  Steve Palmer rates power as the key attribute for success at Augusta, hence his picking of Keegan Bradley and Dustin Johnson, and it is reassuring to see Tiger Woods and DJ right up there at the top of the "carry" stats, with Tiger rated the best on tour: http://www.pgatour.com/content/pgatour/stats/stat.02409.html

Colsaerts is one I strongly DON'T want to win this weekend.  I've picked a lot of golfers to have onside and I think Nic has a solid game, evidenced by his Ryder Cup performance last summer (another time Betfred offered a cracking deal - 2/1 Europe to win the tournament).  In the Europe vs USA spectacle, in two rounds of fourball matches, Colsaerts made 11 birdies and one eagle and was as unflappable as that bird of prey is flappy.  His lack of track experience, however, puts me off.  He's a debutant here so I'm reluctantly leaving him out of the punting pack.  Talented Dane Thorbjørn Olesen is another first-timer that I will watch with trepidation if he starts getting hot.  His recent injury, whiplash sustained in a car accident, will surely be enough to stop him driving his way to success?  Sorry.

Best Supporting Act - Louis Oosthuizen: £60 win at 34 on Betfair

I've supplemented this outright bet with £50 on the exchange matched at 7.8 for a top 5 finish.  After missing his first three cuts in the Masters, I had Louis to win it when sent off at 90/1 last year before Bubba beat him in a playoff after Mickelson fell away in the closing stages and I don't want to miss out on any place money again this time around.  That memorable albatross on the par-5 second hole, "Pink Dogwood", was one of Sky's top 10 all-time Masters shots.  A beauty indeed it was, although for me Tiger's touch around the 16th green on his way to the 2005 title still gives me goosefistpumples and gets my vote.

Louis has the power to set himself up for eagles and birdies on the longer holes and, although recent form reads 32/CUT/33/CUT/10, he won the Volvo Championship in his native South Africa on the European Tour this season and is subsequently still ranked 6th in the world, behind Snedeker, Donald, Rose, McIlroy and our top pick, the Tiger.


Antepost Fancy - Graeme McDowell: £25 at 61.6 on Betfair

Backed him for this tournament the same weekend Tiger won the Cadillac.  G Mac had three eye-catching consecutive rounds of -6, -5 and -3 before closing on Sunday with a disappointing even par round to finish tied third with Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and "Lefty" Phil Mickelson, who closed with a stunning -8, a decent -3 and an ordinary -1 respectively.  The last of that trio, though, Big Phil, is another I am fearing this coming weekend.  In the past five years his record in the Masters reads third last year, 27th, 1st, 5th, 5th.  Much like Bubba, who I have backed, Phil's shot shaping is ideal for Augusta, and both have demonstrated unbelievable shots from the trees in recent years to clinch their green jackets.

Since letting the runner-up spot slip away in Florida, we've only seen McDowell play once.  He ended up 45th at the Arnold Palmer, which was again won by Tiger at a course he loves, Bay Hill.   When he hasn't missed the cut at Augusta though, and he did in 2011 and 2010, G Mac has been there or thereabouts, with a 12 and a 17 against his name.  His accent is practically American, he seems happy and confident and unlike Donald, Westwood and Poulter, he is a Brit with a major under his belt.  The price seems to offer a decent each-way prospect.

Best of the Rest

When Jeremy Chapman AND Steve Palmer fancy a 200/1 outsider, you simply have to take heed.  When that contender, another South African, leads the European Tour's "Race to Dubai", has the 3rd best scoring average out there (behind Woods and Sned) and has a win and a 2nd place against his name this term then you'd be crazy not to chuck some cash down.  The chap in question, Richard Sterne, is begging to be backed, with Paddy Power's additional each-way place firmly coming into play.


The staking plan is completed with bets on 2011 USPGA Champion Keegan Bradley; huge hitting Dustin Johnson; last year's winner Bubba the Blubber (did you see his press conference yesterday?) and consistently competitive Hunter Mahan, who credited himself with a runner-up cheque in the recent WGC Matchplay tournament.
 

Palphabet's Day on the Derby Downs

May has been an excellent month on the exchanges for Palphabet - and the Lucky 31 bets that I used to eschew in favour of a straightforward accumulator have proved a revelation.  Golf tipsters Steve Palmer and Jeremy Chapman from the Racing Post, as well as podcasting punters Dave Kelner and Mike Grenham have also inspired me to four profitable weeks off the tee: a turn in fortune that I attribute wholly to the upbeat nature of the William Hill podcast's theme tune.

The tunes of Eurovision were not quite so successful, as I took the view that Sweden were too short at a shade over evens, but I made up for it later that evening (and also recouped losses on the Greyhound Derby) by backing Carl Froch to win by KO, laying the fight against Lucien Bute to go the distance and correctly predicting that by whatever means, the bout would be won by the Cobra.


I also unsuccessfully layed England in both test matches at short odds and won just under what the Americans would call "a quarder" by greening up on the London Mayoral elections after trading the market during last year's captial city riots.  Profiting out of social misery is not out of the question for Palphabet.


I would now, however, like to turn my attention to this weekend's Derby, beginning by detailing an experience I had in Epsom just a fortnight ago...

A moody morning on the Downs.  Click to enlarge and see the horses

Upon arrival at Epsom Downs racecourse for a recent medical device conference, where I was exhibiting titanium orthopaedic implants and precision-made powertools used for small-bone surgery (I do have to make a living somehow), I was treated to a panoramic view of the arena for this weekend’s Derby meeting free of the funfairs, fanfare and flutterers that annually frequent Surrey’s chalky formations in early June.

Avert your eyes northbound back towards London and from this vantage point you are afforded breathtaking views of the capital’s skyline, with the unfinished but still imposing Shard piercing up towards the sun from London Bridge.  It prompts a dizzying, rollercoaster ride of emotions for any racegoer, even if on this particular day the only horses in sight were those being given a gentle ride out from one of the 13 local stables, where trainers such as Michael Attwater, Roger Ingram or Pat Phelan ply their trade.

At these work conferences, there is often a fair bit of hanging around, so I took the opportunity to venture outside onto the stands and make a phone call.  Talking and walking I realised what was happening all around me: workmen busy erecting a marquee, a couple of young ladies carrying boxes of promotional literature from one building to another, grass being carefully mown, glossy white paint applied to railings, flowers being planted, the Investec Zebra trotting down a flight of stairs - Derby preparations in full swing.


I walked over to a chap in a cap.  His name was Shamus.  Some know him as "the flower-pot man" but, although his pruning and planting was evident around me, his knowledge stretched beyond petunias, and his passion was immediately Palphabetically palpable!   He's been off for 10 months with a back injury that has prevented him from carrying out his many tasks around the course and now many of the young executives wrongly "think I'm the new boy!"  But that could not be further from the truth.

Seamus is over the back there (left pic) and won't thank me for keeping the dying daffodil in shot! The flowers on the right will be resplendent in red, white and blue on Saturday

I chatted to Shamus for fifteen minutes or so, as he talked of the famous track's Derby course: the immediate ascent taking the horses and riders up a 180-foot incline, "the same height as Nelson's Column", he told me.  Undulations that wouldn't look out of place on a links golf course, with cambers forcing the contesting 3-year-old thoroughbreds from high to low ground while testing stamina, composure and heart.  Tattenham Corner's sweeping bend, a sight that Seamus has been able to see from his bedroom window since he was a little boy over half a century ago.  Then the straight, that home run of dipping turf, dripping in Derby day atmosphere.  Where Lester Piggott so often got his tactics spot-on, and where last year, Mickael Barzalona came from the back on Pour Moi, having hit 36 in-running on Betfair.   Shamus said he was so busy organising the buckets of water to douse the exhausted equine combatants last summer, that he didn't even notice the now iconic celebration inexplicably enacted by the youthfully enthusiastic Frenchman.  He wasn't too busy to show me Barzalona's winning jersey (above right), though, and could vividly recollect his favourite Derby winner of all time without hesitation: "Troy, 1979". 


I got out into the middle of the track and looked back towards Tattenham Corner from the winning post:

This Saturday, I am hoping John Gosden and William Buick can follow up last year's St Leger win with Masked Marvel, by overturning the 2000 Guineas winner and clear favourite, Camelot, who is best priced 4-6 with Paddy Power.   As I started writing, Ballydoyle's hand was exceptionally strong, although with Imperial Monarch looking bound for Chantilly.  At the final declarations this morning, however, Aidan O'Brien's initial quintet of runners, which I thought would be reduced to a 'mere' quartet comprising Astrology, Father of Science, Tower Rock alongside their Classic-winning stablemate, is now just a double act:

The current Derby betting - click to enlarge

I have layed the market leader for one main reason.  Namely that Joseph O'Brien talked of his Guineas tactics at the weekend in an excellent interview with David Walsh in the Sunday Times, and I'm just not convinced I buy it.  Camelot only won by a neck from a field that was not exactly drawing superlatives from the lips of the pundits and whilst I acknowledge that JOB is a talented individual, who seems to possess the calmness of Roger Federer, with a similar ability to keep the sweat at bay, this is his sternest test yet and he will not want to get stuck at the rear, even if he does harbour thoughts of a MB-style fist-pump (unlikely).  

I was more than happy to back Frankel two weeks ago at 3-10, in the same way that Big Buck's looks value at 1-4 and Black Caviar more competitive than all cash ISAs, often returning a 5% return-on-investment when bookies down under have been generous enough to offer 1-20.  The Derby is different, though, and I'd rather oppose the tide of support for the father-son champion elect.


Having said all of that, Camelot is a classy unbeaten Montjeu colt boasting unbeaten figures of 11-1 with a blistering turn of foot and will undoubtedly stay the trip, with Lester Piggott himself saying that all young Joseph has to do is "steer him round the course" and many quarters of the press seeing it as a foregone conclusion, especially in a field with the fewest number of racers in over 100 years! 


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/9297999/The-Derby-2012-Three-reasons-why-Coolmores-thrilling-colt-Camelot-will-win-at-Epsom.html  


Still, at that price I'll happily be taking him on and have ploughed into Thought Worthy, covering all other eventualities with the initial Camelot lay: 

Ryan Moore, who was scathing in his attack on what he perceived as unworthy entries in this race last year, when he disappointed on the Queen's horse, Carlton House, rides the other Coolmore colt Astrology.  His sire, Galileo, gave us the aforementioned Frankel, his full brother Noble Mission and last year's Derby runner-up Treasure Beach.  Moore is leading the way in the Top Flat Jockey 2012 market and will enjoy the added freedom running in Camelot's shadow.

I was always going to tip Thought Worthy, wasn't I?!

That Noble Mission was beaten at Newmarket by Thought Worthy gives hope that with Buick's bad experience round this track last year (when he finished 8th with Masked Marvel) and his additional years earning his living in the saddle over Joseph O'Brien, he might be able to follow up his 2011 classic win with victory here.   I should declare an interest - I have backed Buick for top jock 2012 and highlighted Thought Worthy as one to look out for in a previous post: http://palphabet.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/part-2-memories-of-national-hunt-2011.html 

Bonfire, I hear, is somewhat of a nutter.  You'd imagine his twitter account to resemble the hilarious musings of @weirdhorse but connections have been playing it down, and Andrew Balding's Dante Stakes hero has already put the O'Briens firmly in their place once this season, when Ernest Hemmingway, also of Galileo, was 14 lengths back in last place at York.  The last time I was told to be wary of a headcase horse was when Sanctuaire was partnered by Daryl Jacob in Ruby Walsh's absence at Sandown Park.  Many said that DJ would not be able to handle the horse's temperament.  He cruised to a massive 17-length win over Grade 1 winner Somersby.

Main Sequence made the front page of the Racing Post last week when connections bullishly staked their claim for the Derby after success in the Lingfield all-weather trial over the same 1m 4f trip from Shantaram, and another contender on Saturday, Cavaleiro, who was clearly beaten by 6 lengths and remains a 66-1 shot.  Cavaleiro is partnered at Epsom by red-hot Hayley Turner, fresh from receiving her Glamour Magazine Sportswoman of the Year gong this week.  Who can argue with that?!

Mickdaam, who has been relatively heavily raced and has formlines over another of Andrew Baldings, Minimise Risk (having won by just over a length on May 10 at Chester) completes the single-figure line-up with Rugged Cross, who finished third, but only a short distance behind Thought Worthy and Noble Mission over 1m 2f at Newmarket.

Rumours of Frankie Dettori's retirement from the sport were quickly quashed on Twitter yesterday but nevertheless, his absence will be felt this weekend, as some fresher faces grimace in an attempt to take this highly coveted crown.

***

A cursory mention - it is the rider's considerable experience (J Murtagh) and gut feeling that leads me to fancy Vow (1pt) in tomorrow's Oaks.

Nightmare end to a Whirlwind Week

Wow. Yesterday’s Super Sunday was a day of sport that would have warranted a national holiday, had Sunday not already been designated as a day of rest for most of the western world.  Messi putting Neymar in his place, Villa unable to defend corners, Phil Jones showing a good turn of foot but a suspect temperament in front of goal, City responding to United’s lunchtime pressure in a way befitting the champions elect.  Add to that Big Buck’s performance on Saturday, Raya Star franking Rock on Ruby’s form over hurdles and RVB crashing out of the PDC last night, and it’s been a weekend for sports fans to savour.

Unless you were laying bets on the exchanges that saw you in this position by Sunday night:

Period: Last 3 Hours Last 6 Hours Just For Today From Yesterday Last 7 days Last 30 days Last 3 Months Download to Spreadsheet ? (relates to event settlement date) (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)

Golf: -£167.53 | Horse Racing: -£124.17 | Snooker: £177.78 | Soccer: -£655.57 | Special Bets: -£25.52 | Tennis: -£58.81 | Tote: | Total P&L: -£853.82

I am deliberately looking back over the past 30 days rather than the past 24 hours – I’d like to think this is because I take a long-term view of my trading and focus on moving averages rather than short-term fluctuations. The truth is I daren’t look at my isolated weekend P&L for fear that it may result in my Christmas having an outlook of pessimism similar to that of a battery turkey.

The Australian wallet returned just over a ton of profit thanks to IJP prevailing down under, returning some solace off a £17 stake at just a couple of points shy of 9-1 but that has done little to lift my spirits during this supposed time of good will to all men.

I have, however, got some bets on for the yuletide period, and I want to carry on testing my hypothesis that you see a higher than average number of red cards in mid-week televised football matches played under poor weather conditions featuring teams at opposite ends of the skill spectrum or with something significant to play for.  My optimism for profit has been boosted by this schedule of televised fixtures:

Mon 19	Crystal Palace v Birmingham (7.45pm)	7.30pm	Championship
Tue 20	Blackburn v Bolton (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League
Wed 21	Wigan v Liverpool (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League
Thu 22	Tottenham v Chelsea (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League

The odds offered against a sending off in those matches are all between 3/1 and 5/1, and as such, I will be looking closely at tonight’s match.  Crystal Palace and Birmingham have just one red card between them so far this season and are separated by just one place and one point in the league so far this season.   Birmingham’s sole sending off came, however, in a match away to Cardiff, who are above them in the Championship and will have tested their defence enough to draw Curtis Davies into a last-man challenge that denied Kenny Miller a goalscoring opportunity [despite replays proving the decision made by referee Anthony Taylor to be incorrect]. 

http://www.birminghammail.net/birmingham-sport/birmingham-city-fc/birmingham-city-fc-news/2011/12/05/birmingham-city-boss-blames-curtis-davies-sending-off-for-defeat-97319-29894224/ 

Whether or not Crystal Palace’s attack will cause the same problems is a moot point.  A swift glance at the prowess of these teams in front of goal does not reveal a potent strike rate for either side and a red card is currently trading at fairly priced 9/2 on Betfair. 

http://www.football-league.co.uk/page/ClubShooting/0,,10794~20117,00.html

Might leave this one alone and wait for some more clear indicators in the other mid-week fixtures.  The biggest danger after a weekend of losses like I’ve just had is to dive straight back in... isn’t it?!

Finally, thanks to radio 5 Live, who had me on their racing show last week - it was an honour to be on the airwaves amongst such exalted company as Cornelius Lysaght and Mick Fitzgerald with Mark Pougatch.  Thanks also to Chris Graham and the www.sportingbet.com podcast boys for the plug - looking forward to more media appearances in the new year!

For those that didn't catch me on the Denman show - here's the audio http://tvider.com/view/73280