Mastering Augusta - Days 1 and 2

I may be writing this with noise-cancelling headphones reducing jet engine din to merely a faint whir, but I can still hear the spine-tingling roars from the 18^thgreen.  We didn’t get to see Tiger Woods’s final bogey putt, for the throng of people gathered there in anticipation blocked our immediate view, but we did get a glimpse into his soul.  As we stood in a golfing guard of honour, surrounded by men, women and children from all over the sport-watching world, who had descended on Augusta National this humid, intense Sunday morning, Tiger bounded up towards us, accompanied by his children, his destination The Butler Cabin, exuding pure joy.  His victorious face displayed relief, self-belief and a genuine smile of gleaming teeth.  

He had done it, we were there to witness it, and, having held it together over the weekend, he let it all out for the first time.  Fist bumping fans and high-fiving the outstretched hands in a display of raw emotion, his hand touched mine.  I felt the fingers of the 2019 Masters champion.

Spot the really happy, bald guy in this photo.  No, not the one holding the trophy wearing the Rolex, the one in the background wearing Masters merchandise with the yellow Garmin.

Everyone knows what happened, and how it happened. This is my take on making it happen, how we mastered Augusta, managed the course from a spectating perspective, and lost our green jacket V-plates.

Rewind a year or so.  My two younger brothers and I begin preparatory and preliminary talks to plan a boys' weekend for my youngest brother, Luke's, 30th birthday.  Vegas was proposed and soon dismissed.  It had been done before for stag parties and work jollies, and while it's a hedonistic and iconic destination to be chalked off any self-destructive bon viveur's bucket-list, we decided we wanted a more memorable moment to treasure rather than a reenactment of previous recreational retreats.  

It was decided: we would head to Augusta, Georgia, for the first major golf event of the 2019 calendar, the Masters Tournament.  From a betting point of view, I love this event. The small field, course form and generous terms on offer make it a punters' paradise and I waded in with the following wagers:

We booked our entire trip with Pete Warsop at Tailormade Golf Travel, and from the early emails all the way through to the hospitality and hosting, we were very well looked after by him and his team.  Tournament tickets, rounds of golf at two superb local courses, accommodation and transportation were taken care of, meaning we could ease into life as Augusta National Golf Club patrons for an unforgettable weekend up there with the best of my life.   

After landing in Atlanta on the Wednesday of the par-3 tournament, picking up an Escalade, and driving a couple of hours east to a very pleasant holiday home situated just a few minutes' drive from Magnolia Lane, we spent the Thursday morning playing The Reserve Club at Woodside.  This is a stunning residential plantation in the beautifully quaint town of Aiken, South Carolina, where we were met by a friendly "Hey y'all" as we dropped our golf bags with the buggy attendants before being served with a delicious all-American breakfast prior to our 9.06am tee time.

Five hours and not many more Stableford points later, having been treated to regular refreshments by friendly young ladies traversing the cart-paths in refrigerated vehicles, we were back on the clubhouse terrace tucking into an enormous lunch catching up on the day's action from the other first round of golf happening 40 minutes down the road that day.  Assessing the leaderboard later that evening,  Matsuyama had started badly, Rahm fairly strongly.  Woods had a solid 70 and Rory was slow out of the stalls on +1.

We got an early night ahead of our first day trackside at the Augusta National. The blue skies were being threatened: there was a storm on the way...

Nice of Andrew "Beef" Johnston to pose with us on a wonderful day at Woodside

On Friday, the weather (and weather warnings) added to the drama.  A gloomy gown of grey adorned the dawn sky.  Deluges of warm rain at the start of the day, and near the end, punctuated an otherwise hot and occasionally beautifully sunny occasion, so Augusta’s flora was lush, the fairways lively and the footpaths slippery in places, with enormous slopes, famous undulations that are perceptible on television but only fully appreciated in the flesh.  The course was packed with characters.

Characters – pros on the practice range and the putting green, experienced supporters in the specators’ stands, where we stopped for a few minutes before heading towards the course proper.  We took an immediate shine to Neil, from Liverpool, who has lived in Melbourne for the past 10 years but clearly hadn't forgotten his time living in the drizzly UK.   We stood under his Masters-merch umbrella and bantered with him for about half hour as Aphibarnrat, Vijay Singh and Matt Fitzpatrick effortlessly pinged some shots around. This guy Neil, plays off scratch, was in the USA for two weeks. He played a couple of courses around the south east states, watched days 1 and 2 of the Masters, and was then jetting off to Vegas for the weekend to play the Tiger v Phil course, Shadow Creek, as well as Wolf Creek before heading home. He had the good sense to bring his wife and two childen with him at the beginning of his holiday, and parted company with them only after a credit-earning family fun time witnessing the wonderful world of Walt Disney.  He was the first of many affable aficionados with whom we had the delight of discussing the action unfolding before us.  

Now, we had some first day decisions to make – do we sit down on a Masters branded deckchair, given to us by the tour company, just one of many items of memorabilia and merchandise that has made its way home with us, or wander around the track trying to keep up with events.  We went with wandering.  You can, however, just plonk yourself on other people’s pre-positioned deckchairs, so long as they’re free, and until their owners come back to politely kick you out (in a friendly, respectful, Augusta National kinda way).

We watched a load of groups tee off on 1, then followed the European trio of Molinari, Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Tyrrell Hatton round for a bit, until the fairway of 3, where we waited halfway towards the hole, at the side by the pines, and saw tee shots and approaches from the next few groups

Phil Mickelson went into the rough here. We were less than a club's length away from him as he played out. I was trembling! Leaning all over my brother to get a better view but desperately trying to avoid placing my entire body weight upon him, for fear that we might fall across the flimsy rope that separates patrons from players.  This proved to be a delicate balance over the course of the day, and even more so on the Sunday as one tries to trade off a perfect view of a shot with the compromise of being accused of groping ones fellow golfing ganderer.  No phones are allowed inside the grounds, so there are no selfies or photo opportunities and I must say the whole experience is better for it.  You soak it all up so much more fully without any technology to tempt you into tapping away at a screen. 

Then we headed to the 240 yard par-3 fourth and cheered on a few pin-peppering shots from there.  The tee is high above the green, so you get an incredible view from up there.

It was around 11am, so we grabbed a cheap but charming pimento cheese sandwich – the prices of food and drink at Augusta are ridiculously good value, seemingly unchanged at around $2 for everything since the days of Jack Nicklaus (who, I forgot to mention earlier, is the course designer of the Reserve Club at Woodside). The concessions hall is run with the precision as a laser range-finder but with as much variety as Ian Poulter's dressing room, so you can be in and out within minutes but yet keep yourself satisfied for hours.

From 5, we jumped to Azalea (13), to hit a grandstand, where you can see tee boxes, greens and fairways all from one elevated position. You can look down and see the Hogan bridge from there so this was our first glimpse of Amen Corner.  This is where we saw the aforementioned and sartorially-elegant Poulter take the outright lead after his 2^ndshot got plugged against the steep greenside bank of Rae’s Creek.  He was pumped. Not Ryder Cup-pumped but certainly buoyed by his early place at the head of the leaderboard, so we followed him down 14, cheering him on with other Brits (although a lot of yanks were surprisingly rooting for him too), before positioning ourselves in the roaring sunshine next to the devilishly tough pin on the par 3 16^th.  We sat in (someone else’s ) deckchairs there for about an hour, watching all the superstars come through. By this point, it was only about 1430, so we knew the likes of Woods, McIlroy, Rahm, Fleetwood etc had only just commenced their rounds back on the first tee.  

So we went over to 7 to await their anticipated arrival,  standing in awe as golfing giants appeared before us as mortal competitors, focused on one of the most highly coveted prizes in sport, emotion already etched on their face.  The guard comes down at Augusta and you see what these guys are made of.

Then behind the green on 10, where from an almost vertigo-inducing height, you can fully appreciate the huge hill down which they have to drive on this hole. The highest peak to the lowest divot of 10 is 116ft, roughly the same height as the Statue of Liberty, and the tournament torch was really beginning to flame.  From here, you are also right next to the tee box on 15, so you can just stand still, turn your head and see Freddie Couples teeing off there, while Xander Schauffele was finishing off his putt on the 10^th green.      This was a great spot highlighted by our official Augusta yardage book (one of many bits of merch picked up for a mere $8). 

Eddie Pepperell stood on 15 with driver and ball, but no caddy.  This bemused us at the time, but made more sense when we bumped into said caddy in a bar on Sunday night.  In the subsequent grouping, Henrik Stenson interacted with the crowd, cool as a chilled Kronleins Crocodile, partnered by legendary caddie Fannie Sunesson, who we would also bump into later in the trip, but more of that later.

Literature lifeline in the absence of phonelines.  This document, helpfully distributed around Augusta National, and with a course map on reverse, was vital to charting events as they developed

Finally on Friday, and as the humidity hugged us closer, we went to Amen Corner.  This was as iconic and visually impressive in real ife as you would imagine. The patrons are not permitted to go down onto the 12^thgreen so this is the only bit of the track where the public leave the players to finish their iron shots in relative isolation.  Tiger birdied 11 and the place went berserk.  Then he chipped to within a few feet on 12 and the noise was as though a billion balloons burst, as the dial on the barometer nudged ever closer to thunderclaps.  As his partner, Haotong Li approached his ball to tee off, a breath away from his backswing, the weather warning klaxon rang around the course.  

It was 5.10pm and we were told that was it for the day.

Everyone was reasonably perturbed and confused by the siren, but people started to evacuate.  Looking up at the sky, whilst overcast and with air pressure reflecting the sporting action, our initial (perhaps optimistically British) thoughts were: "it looks fine, please crack on", so we just hung around with other concerned characters, while Tiger, a solitary figure, proceeded with purpose down across the bridge to mark his ball and get an advance read on his putt. He stayed on the green for a good few minutes and we watched him until he slipped away through some flowery bushes into what musy be some kind of secret exit.  It was all rather surreal and there wasn't yet a drop of rain, let alone local evidence of thunder or lightning.  The marshals informed us that any stormy conditions within a radius of 10 miles is sufficient cause to suspend play.

Loads of people left at this point, but many stayed.  We had been told that it is fairly normal for people to leave the course mid-afternoon, retreating to the comfort of their homes or hostelries and take advantage of the more complete coverage afforded by television broadcast.  We stuck it out.

Then we had all the drama of play being suspended, then recommenced; on or off… and then on. This was a real rush!  I still can’t quite believe Tiger came back out and missed not only this birdie putt, but so many more birdie opportunities on the back 9 on Friday. He may have simply had too much time to mull this particular putt over whie there was a break in play, and then perhaps the momentum was lost somewhat.  The atmosphere, however, was absolutely palpable and inescapable for those of us who remained in situ throughout this meteorologically-induced interval.

Tiger obviously did claw back another two shots from there on day two, and we saw his birdie on 15 as we moved back round there from Amen, staying sluighly ahead of his group, cheering on him and Rahmbo.

Despite understandable and justifiable concerns that watching golf live from the course is less comprehensive than TV coverage,  you could totally tell what was going on the whole time. The scoreboards were brilliant and the staff, fellow patrons and even occasionally competitors helped you understand what was going on.  Most of the time, Tiger was as tunnel-vision, job-first focused as Robocop, striding towards targets with single-minded steadfastness.  But by now, he was really smiling. It was amazing to see! This first glimpse behind the competitive mask suggested more than just being pleased to be being competitive, if that makes sense. He was glad to be there, but he seemed to be allowing himself to occasionally check-in and appreciate that he was also in with a real shout of major glory for the first time in over a decade.

We certainly felt we played the action-witnessing strategy almost perfectly, without missing out on the more subtle experiences of just “being in the moment” and drinking it all in, and it meant we had a good template mapped out ahead of our return here on the Sunday, where it was to get even more dramatic as two incredible ball strikers, Ryder Cup rivals and most importantly remaining key players on my betting slip would go hammer and tongs at the head of the leaderboard.  Things were just coming to the boil!

Two boyish faces of joy, and a jolly Grizzly Adams, mulling over the events of Friday at Augusta National

Nicholls' Near Misses a Sign of Undervalued Opportunities?

To which page in your copy of the Racing Post do you most eagerly turn as you open the crisp inky paper or flick digitally across the cool glass of your tablet device?  If Segal is making an appearance, as he did yesterday and Friday with more successful selections for stalwarts of his suggestions, I head straight to his column.  Richard Hughes has been my next port of call over the flat season, followed perhaps by David Ashforth, whose hilarious musings never fail to entertain and amuse.

After those pages have been perused, though, I'll head to see what horses have gubbed the punters on the previous afternoon.  "Yesterday's Highlights", they somewhat disingenuously subtitle the section (although to be fair, they do draw one's attention to the huge in-play prices that winning horses could have been backed at too), this little grey box has not just got my goat this morning, it's goading my goat.  Grrrrr.

I didn't have huge confidence in Salubrious yesterday, and even less so after reading his trainer's unenthusiastic but frankly realistic appraisal of his chances in his excellent and insightful Betfair column.  But with some sentiment - Salubrious provided a 17/1 Cheltenham festival winner for this blog when he claimed the Martin Pipe Conditionals Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle in March - I thought he was worth an each-way bet at 14/1 yesterday and was encouraged when Segal picked his stablemate Southfield Theatre as I reckon Paul Nicholls' yard is being underestimated by the layers at present.

It's a genuine sign of the magic of this sport though, that when I watched the replay of the 3.00 handicap hurdle on Sky+ last night, I couldn't help but be moved by James Best's tearfully emotional interview with Alice Plunkett after he nicked the Nicholls' pair on the line to score at 20/1 on board Philip Hobbs's Return Spring.  It would have been splendid to have taken the full spoils from the scintillating sprint up the famous Cheltenham hill, but the sport rightly took centre stage ahead of my meaningless P&L spreadsheets:

On the whole, it was a profitable day's punting, with a 3pt stake on Champagne Fever looking about as safe as the debut chaser's jumping looked competently assured.  I did set an unmatched lay before the off, which as you can see was matched shortly before the second last fence, just in case.  Ruby looked very happy on board as it completed a quickfire treble for him at the start of yesterday's Punchestown card, and he's surely going to be even more delighted when he guides Hurricane Fly to a record breaking 17th Grade 1 victory later today.  My £20 double on the Mullins bankers returns just £12 profit - a testament to the high esteem in which they are both held by the bookies.  Segal's tips of Fergal O'Brien's Bradley and Alvarado in the 1.50 at Cheltenham were confidently conveyed in his column and the latter proved him correct, causing me to collect :)

Onto today's racing, and I do really fancy Paul Nicholls to have a fruitful afternoon, not just at Prestbury Park, but over in Sussex at Fontwell too.  It would really set the scene beautifully for Saturday's hotly contested Betfair "Lancashire" Chase if Silviniaco Conti's stablemates return to Ditcheat later today, full of beans, neighing merrily, and send him up the M6 next week with loveable nutter Tidal Bay raring to take on Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant, Long Run and Charlie Hall Chase winner Harry Topper.

1.00 Cheltenham - Pay the King - Bumper winning Nicholls horse with Harry Derham taking off three pounds.  Lieutenant Miller has been out and about as a flat stayer this summer, notching up victories under Tom Queally and Graham Lee before coming a creditable third in the Cesarewitch priced up at 10/1.  Holds less betting appeal at 4/1 this afternoon but is the clear alternative to 15/2 shot Pay the King.

1.35 Cheltenham - Lac Fontana - Clifford Baker's dark horse popped up in my At The Races "Tracker" email this morning.  A 7/1 shot in a small field, worth a small bet as Sea Lord and The Liquidator hog the pre-race headlines.

2.10 Cheltenham - This is a tricky one, with Raya Star, Dodging Bullets and Ted Veale all there or thereabouts in the betting.  Probably the one Nicholls will win with DB, as I am siding with Cheltenham Festival winner and useful flat performer, Teddy V.

2.40 Cheltenham - Just wonder if former Nicholls horse Tataniano isn't worth giving another vote of confidence at a big outside price of 22 on Betfair.  Wearing the famous red and white colours of Big Buck's, he's a memorable horse, although I dug out this article from 2010 that Mr Nicholls would probably rather forget!

2.55 Fontwell - Benvolio (NAP) - With Ruby Walsh off the books at Ditcheat, I think the line up of jockeys should be able to be compared with the squad of Tottenham Hotspur this year.  Losing a superstar, but gaining a balance.. Sadly for Spurs fans, they are playing dreadfully dour football, while Nicholls has at his disposal his number 1 Daryl Jacob, claimer Harry Derham, a pumped-up Twiston-Davies and one of my Twitter faves, Nick "Melodic Rendezvous" Scholfield, who takes the reins on this even money banker today.  I know who I would rather be watching ply their trade this term and it's not the scum from Edmonton!

3.15 Cheltenham - Flaxen Flare - easy one for me this as FF gave me a huge 31/1 boost on Day 3 of last season's festival.  Was 12/1 this morning, but has been clipped into around 8s since Segal selected him again, lauding his trainer Gordon Elliott and describing today's conditions for the four-year-old as "perfect".

3.50 Cheltenham - One last Nicholls stab - Southfield Vic - same colours and close relative of the aforementioned near-misser from yesterday, and PFN seems more confident about this one than he did about that!

Over in Ireland, blog favourite and new Racing Post columnist Bryan Cooper has a good book of rides, picking up strongly-fancied Don Cossack from the banned Davy Russell in the 1.40 Novice Chase.  While the only bet I've had over there is on Hurricane Fly in the fourteen-fifteen formality, why not have a look at this blog from my Twitter pal Steve, as he seems to have a good handle on things over the water.

Punchestown Day 1: Go Bigg on the Gigg

One of the seriously serendipitous side-effects of this chest infection I’m currently suffering is the sleeplessness associated with consistent coughing.   Couple that with anticipation for the beginning of this year’s Punchestown Festival and you get the perfect recipe for early-morning blog writing. 

St G: Character on a Horse

With only next weekend’s Ultimate Celebration Meeting at Sandown remaining on this year’s national hunt agenda proper, it’s almost time to reflect on another exciting year in the sport of kings and queen.  Despite the overpowering patriotism felt at Palphabet HQ today though, on this day of our patron Saint George (himself an accomplished horseman by all accounts), it is vital to keep the emotion of Englishness at bay when looking at this afternoon’s big-race card in Ireland.

Boasting three opening day Grade 1 races, Tuesday 23^rd April looks very much geared up to be dominated by home-trained horses, with the notable and hugely exhilarating exception of English raider Sprinter Sacre.  Nicky Henderson’s superstar travels overseas for the first time, where he is sure to continue answering questions on the track with an exuberant arrogance unparalleled by his peers at present, and a disdain that eclipses even the way in which Jeremy Paxman asks the questions on University Challenge.   

So let’s hope, at the gong, that we can get a few answers ourselves.  The first race of the day is the 3.40 three-mile chase:

Zest for Life at 5/1 isn’t a bet I would be hanging today’s gambling hat on.  The soft ground doesn’t appear to be particularly in the favour of the 2010 winner of this race, whose trainer and track specialist Enda Bolger (19% success rate here from 83 runs) admitted prefers quicker conditions.   At the price though, and with a 7lb claimant on board, Zest is preferred over favourite and stablemate Near Perfection, who is nearer 5/2 in the betting.

4.20’s Grade 1 two-mile novice hurdle sees a mouth-watering rematch of Cheltenham’s Supreme Novice Hurdle.  Winner Champagne Fever and third-place Jezki are back on home soil and looking to take advantage of the absence of My Tent or Yours, runner-up in March and subsequent winner in the lower class novice hurdle at Aintree earlier this month.  

Festival Fillip

Mullins and Walsh got my 2013 festival off to a cork-popping flyer with a 6/1 fillip but I’m going to desert the dream duo today and side with Davy Russell’s Gigginstown House Stud mount, Rule the World at 9/2.  A four-length defeat at the hands of The New One in the 2m 5f Neptune Novices’ Hurdle was form-franked in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle, Rule the World only has a few pounds to find on the two market leaders here, and has beaten an off-colour Champagne Fever in Ireland before.  Ted Veale, a big priced Palphabet winner of the Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, is rated 10 pounds lower than Rule the World so I have to rule him out. 

It's worth pointing out at this stage, that BetVictor.com are giving punters their money back if your horse finished 2nd to a Willie Mullins winner.  Could prove a useful insurance policy here and in the 6.40.

 4.55 Handicap Hurdle:  Looking down the weights at another horse owned by the GHS, Beef to the Heels is my meaty selection here.  Priced at 43/1 on Betfair, 25/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power (who pay five places each-way in this race) and intriguingly only 20/1 with magic sign firm Ladbrokes, who are renowned for their Irish knowledge, I’ll be getting the knife and fork out on this slice of betting beef.  Trained by Gordon Elliott, this course and distance winner is ridden by Miss Jane Mangan, who is 2-3 on him and 6-9 when booked by Elliott.  In a competitive handicap like this, the jockey’s knowledge of her horse is nearly as important as her 5lb allowance.  Nearly.

Still got £12 of this bet unmatched

5.30 Champion Chase:  I see no reason not to follow up the exacta from the Cheltenham Queen Mother Champion Chase with the same bet here.  Sprinter Sacre win, Sizing Europe next.  Could be a similar procession, but Sprinter Sacre has not been treated to the same break as his nearest rival here, so a 20-length demolition job may not be repeated.  Sacre continues to deliver though so who knows – the gap between these two might be even bigger!

Swerving the bumper, where Mullins’s Moyle Park is strongly fancied, the 6.40 Champion Novice Chase is the final Grade 1 of the opening day and Ruby Walsh looks to have a huge chance to extend Back in Focus’s winning run to five races.  Pricewise has selected Dedigout, and with two of my earlier selections adorned in the iconic maroon and white star of the aforementioned Irish racing powerhouse, the Gigginstown House Stud (owned by shrinking violet and Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary), who am I to disagree?  If you read this before 8.30am today, wait until then, when you should be able to get a better price than the 5/1 or 11/2 available right now (some bookmakers agree to hold the price at which Tom Segal tips his horses for about 15 minutes from 8.30am and Dedigout was put up in today’s Racing Post at 13/2).

With a "powerful three-horse assault" on tomorrow’s Punchestown Gold Cup, this could be a big week for the Gigg – they are represented by Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant and Quito de la Roque in Wednesday’s fascinating contest.

*** 

A final word for this fantastic festival - the timings of the races are excellent and more or less allow full enjoyment without the risk of being sacked for diving into a betting shop every half-hour.  Even if I wasn't off sick with this blasted chest infection, I'm still confident I would be able to tuck in with almost weekend-esque abandon.  Enjoy!

 

The Master is Back and Confident - Back him for the Masters with Confidence

On the eve of Augusta, with the Masters 2013 app downloaded, the William Hill Golf Betting Podcast digested, and the merits of contenders debated, the bets are decided.

Essential Listening

As I've discussed before, I follow Steve Palmer in the Racing Post, have a good look at Jeremy Chapman in the Racing Post and Plus, and add into that the insight provided by the podcast boys, who often highlight key stats and posit thoughtful theories.



So with that in mind, the Palphabet Portfolio for the next four days looks thus:



Headline Pick - Tiger Woods: £200 at 9/2 Betfred; £100 e/w PP

Betfred went 9/2 about the four time Masters champ earlier in the week and a few other firms followed.  Stan James were top price in the market, meaning they had to match Fred "hopefully he'll get" Done until this evening, when they clipped him into 4/1.  Paddy Power offered the same price, but have the added advantage that they pay 6-places each-way, should you wish to cover yourself if he doesn't triumph.  Some bookies are also refunding losing bets if Tiger and/or Rory McIlroy win, so it's worth shopping around for deals.

Betfred Slip Posing on a Perfect Masters App Picture

Betfred Stake Split Each Way with PP

I had a huge win on Tiger in the WGC Cadillac early in March, when he was sent off at a price as Blue Monstrous at the famous course at which he has repeated romped home: 11/1.  These odds grossly underestimated his majesty around Doral and I believe both his game, and his temperament are now sufficiently balanced to suggest he can find familiarity in his prior successes at Augusta as he did in Florida a few weeks ago.

Thoughtful as always, the WH Podcast boys pointed out that the fairways at Augusta are backcombed in the same way as a balding man might sculpt his hair back across his bonce.  This is significant in golf, less so in male grooming, as the "carry" a player can achieve off the tee means his ball is less likely to meet friction as it attempts to gain extra roll distance.  Steve Palmer rates power as the key attribute for success at Augusta, hence his picking of Keegan Bradley and Dustin Johnson, and it is reassuring to see Tiger Woods and DJ right up there at the top of the "carry" stats, with Tiger rated the best on tour: http://www.pgatour.com/content/pgatour/stats/stat.02409.html

Colsaerts is one I strongly DON'T want to win this weekend.  I've picked a lot of golfers to have onside and I think Nic has a solid game, evidenced by his Ryder Cup performance last summer (another time Betfred offered a cracking deal - 2/1 Europe to win the tournament).  In the Europe vs USA spectacle, in two rounds of fourball matches, Colsaerts made 11 birdies and one eagle and was as unflappable as that bird of prey is flappy.  His lack of track experience, however, puts me off.  He's a debutant here so I'm reluctantly leaving him out of the punting pack.  Talented Dane Thorbjørn Olesen is another first-timer that I will watch with trepidation if he starts getting hot.  His recent injury, whiplash sustained in a car accident, will surely be enough to stop him driving his way to success?  Sorry.

Best Supporting Act - Louis Oosthuizen: £60 win at 34 on Betfair

I've supplemented this outright bet with £50 on the exchange matched at 7.8 for a top 5 finish.  After missing his first three cuts in the Masters, I had Louis to win it when sent off at 90/1 last year before Bubba beat him in a playoff after Mickelson fell away in the closing stages and I don't want to miss out on any place money again this time around.  That memorable albatross on the par-5 second hole, "Pink Dogwood", was one of Sky's top 10 all-time Masters shots.  A beauty indeed it was, although for me Tiger's touch around the 16th green on his way to the 2005 title still gives me goosefistpumples and gets my vote.

Louis has the power to set himself up for eagles and birdies on the longer holes and, although recent form reads 32/CUT/33/CUT/10, he won the Volvo Championship in his native South Africa on the European Tour this season and is subsequently still ranked 6th in the world, behind Snedeker, Donald, Rose, McIlroy and our top pick, the Tiger.


Antepost Fancy - Graeme McDowell: £25 at 61.6 on Betfair

Backed him for this tournament the same weekend Tiger won the Cadillac.  G Mac had three eye-catching consecutive rounds of -6, -5 and -3 before closing on Sunday with a disappointing even par round to finish tied third with Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and "Lefty" Phil Mickelson, who closed with a stunning -8, a decent -3 and an ordinary -1 respectively.  The last of that trio, though, Big Phil, is another I am fearing this coming weekend.  In the past five years his record in the Masters reads third last year, 27th, 1st, 5th, 5th.  Much like Bubba, who I have backed, Phil's shot shaping is ideal for Augusta, and both have demonstrated unbelievable shots from the trees in recent years to clinch their green jackets.

Since letting the runner-up spot slip away in Florida, we've only seen McDowell play once.  He ended up 45th at the Arnold Palmer, which was again won by Tiger at a course he loves, Bay Hill.   When he hasn't missed the cut at Augusta though, and he did in 2011 and 2010, G Mac has been there or thereabouts, with a 12 and a 17 against his name.  His accent is practically American, he seems happy and confident and unlike Donald, Westwood and Poulter, he is a Brit with a major under his belt.  The price seems to offer a decent each-way prospect.

Best of the Rest

When Jeremy Chapman AND Steve Palmer fancy a 200/1 outsider, you simply have to take heed.  When that contender, another South African, leads the European Tour's "Race to Dubai", has the 3rd best scoring average out there (behind Woods and Sned) and has a win and a 2nd place against his name this term then you'd be crazy not to chuck some cash down.  The chap in question, Richard Sterne, is begging to be backed, with Paddy Power's additional each-way place firmly coming into play.


The staking plan is completed with bets on 2011 USPGA Champion Keegan Bradley; huge hitting Dustin Johnson; last year's winner Bubba the Blubber (did you see his press conference yesterday?) and consistently competitive Hunter Mahan, who credited himself with a runner-up cheque in the recent WGC Matchplay tournament.
 

Aintree Day 2 - Ladies' Day

A profitable day was enjoyed yesterday, £430 fuelling my journey via rail up to Liverpool, where a particularly tasty curry was enjoyed at Albert Dock eatery East Z East.  Not sure what that Z is all about but the food and service were excellent and the leftovers have been enjoyed for a raceday breakfast this morning.



Booze

  



Views

The views from our city pad afford us sights of the north docks, across the vast body of the River Mersey towards the Wirral.  A pleasant vista.  But that is nothing compared to the treat in store for my ever-so-slightly-smaller-than-average eyes later this afternoon.  Sprinter Sacre is out and about today and anyone who has the opportunity to clap their mince pies upon this cocky animal should savour and relish the chance.  Having said that, stepping up in trip over fences to 2m 4f in the Grade 1 Melling Chase, and priced at 1/3  versus game contenders Cue Card, Flemenstar and perhaps Finian’s Rainbow (if he’s back to 100%), he will have to have his not inconsiderable wits about him.  What a delight this will be for national hunt racing fans all over the land this afternoon.
 

We are intending to get to the track nice and early, and hopefully walk the course, so I’ve just taken a few snapshots of my bets for today to illustrate some thoughts.  Have a good one and, ladies of Liverpool, watch out – the Palphabet pals are in town :-/
 

2.00 – Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle

Going to get back onside with MTOY after his failure at Cheltenham.  Small field and much lesser company means he is a short but fair odds-on price.  Added to an acca.

 

2.30 – Grade 2 Novices’ Chase

Laying Dynaste and backing Pricewise tip Sea of Thunder.  Seems slightly incongruous with my comments about My Tent or Yours above, since Dynaste is 2/1 against, but he was rather unimpressive in March and so I'll take him on.

 

3.05 – Grade 1 Melling Chase

Flemenstar, if he is on point, is capable of a big run over this trip, and is a BIG price to get the better of Sprinter Sacre.  I once heard Dan Skelton say that he thought Flemenstar was undoubtedly a 2-mile horse, but he has been shown on the other side of the Irish Sea to stay the longer trip and I know Tom Segal was sweet on him as a potential Cheltenham Gold Cup prospect.  Conversely, Sprinter Sacre IS a proven 2-mile horse and is stepping into the unknown here.  When Frankel stepped up to 1m 2f, I was in no way skeptical that he would be as dominant at 10 furlongs as he was over 7 furlongs or a mile.  I stuck hefty wagers down at short prices without a second thought.  There is a hint of doubt with Sprinter Sacre though, so whilst I've added him to my Lucky 15, I'm laying him in the outright market.  This race has got us all thinking, but it's certainly got us all drooling too.

3.40 – The Topham Handicap Chase

Backed four in this one.  Segal tipped two in the paper this morning at big prices - Last Time D'Albain, ridden by a winner from yesterday - Bryan Cooper (who partnered First Lieutenant to victory in the Betfred Bowl); and Mister First, tipped at 50/1!  Spoylesports would only let me have £1.50 each way on that, but the lovely layers at Bet365 allowed me to have my full regular point on - top bookie!  Backed Palphabet favourite Chance du Roy and also got Tartak on side.

 
4.15 – Sefton Novices’ Hurdle

I love Rebecca Curtis.  There, I've said it.  On At Fishers Cross with a Rod Laver on Master of the Sea.

4.50 – Listed Handicap Hurdle

You know that scene in Happy Gilmore?  "Mista Mista"?  It's hilarious - check it out.  In honour of that, and AP McCoy's ability to get the best out of a weight-carrying nag, I'm backing Get Me Out of Here to give us a quick JP / AP double. 

Impressed with Harry Derham's ride on board Salubrious when winning the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham, I'm back on today in the acca above.  Raised from 141 to 149, He's carrying 11-3 this afternoon but Harry takes off a handy 5 via his claim as a conditional jockey.

My mate Wardrop was sitting next to me talking up former Champion Hurdler Punjabi too, so whilst I was on Betfair, I gobbled up the 46s available to backers, just to spite him - hilarious scenes ensued, as he was left with a paltry 44.  Many fellow exchange users will surely appreciate the banter?!

5.25 – Bumper

No selection yet - will place a bet trackside, staking accordingly depending on how heavy my pockets are feeling later this afternoon.