Nicholls' Near Misses a Sign of Undervalued Opportunities?

To which page in your copy of the Racing Post do you most eagerly turn as you open the crisp inky paper or flick digitally across the cool glass of your tablet device?  If Segal is making an appearance, as he did yesterday and Friday with more successful selections for stalwarts of his suggestions, I head straight to his column.  Richard Hughes has been my next port of call over the flat season, followed perhaps by David Ashforth, whose hilarious musings never fail to entertain and amuse.

After those pages have been perused, though, I'll head to see what horses have gubbed the punters on the previous afternoon.  "Yesterday's Highlights", they somewhat disingenuously subtitle the section (although to be fair, they do draw one's attention to the huge in-play prices that winning horses could have been backed at too), this little grey box has not just got my goat this morning, it's goading my goat.  Grrrrr.

I didn't have huge confidence in Salubrious yesterday, and even less so after reading his trainer's unenthusiastic but frankly realistic appraisal of his chances in his excellent and insightful Betfair column.  But with some sentiment - Salubrious provided a 17/1 Cheltenham festival winner for this blog when he claimed the Martin Pipe Conditionals Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle in March - I thought he was worth an each-way bet at 14/1 yesterday and was encouraged when Segal picked his stablemate Southfield Theatre as I reckon Paul Nicholls' yard is being underestimated by the layers at present.

It's a genuine sign of the magic of this sport though, that when I watched the replay of the 3.00 handicap hurdle on Sky+ last night, I couldn't help but be moved by James Best's tearfully emotional interview with Alice Plunkett after he nicked the Nicholls' pair on the line to score at 20/1 on board Philip Hobbs's Return Spring.  It would have been splendid to have taken the full spoils from the scintillating sprint up the famous Cheltenham hill, but the sport rightly took centre stage ahead of my meaningless P&L spreadsheets:

On the whole, it was a profitable day's punting, with a 3pt stake on Champagne Fever looking about as safe as the debut chaser's jumping looked competently assured.  I did set an unmatched lay before the off, which as you can see was matched shortly before the second last fence, just in case.  Ruby looked very happy on board as it completed a quickfire treble for him at the start of yesterday's Punchestown card, and he's surely going to be even more delighted when he guides Hurricane Fly to a record breaking 17th Grade 1 victory later today.  My £20 double on the Mullins bankers returns just £12 profit - a testament to the high esteem in which they are both held by the bookies.  Segal's tips of Fergal O'Brien's Bradley and Alvarado in the 1.50 at Cheltenham were confidently conveyed in his column and the latter proved him correct, causing me to collect :)

Onto today's racing, and I do really fancy Paul Nicholls to have a fruitful afternoon, not just at Prestbury Park, but over in Sussex at Fontwell too.  It would really set the scene beautifully for Saturday's hotly contested Betfair "Lancashire" Chase if Silviniaco Conti's stablemates return to Ditcheat later today, full of beans, neighing merrily, and send him up the M6 next week with loveable nutter Tidal Bay raring to take on Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant, Long Run and Charlie Hall Chase winner Harry Topper.

1.00 Cheltenham - Pay the King - Bumper winning Nicholls horse with Harry Derham taking off three pounds.  Lieutenant Miller has been out and about as a flat stayer this summer, notching up victories under Tom Queally and Graham Lee before coming a creditable third in the Cesarewitch priced up at 10/1.  Holds less betting appeal at 4/1 this afternoon but is the clear alternative to 15/2 shot Pay the King.

1.35 Cheltenham - Lac Fontana - Clifford Baker's dark horse popped up in my At The Races "Tracker" email this morning.  A 7/1 shot in a small field, worth a small bet as Sea Lord and The Liquidator hog the pre-race headlines.

2.10 Cheltenham - This is a tricky one, with Raya Star, Dodging Bullets and Ted Veale all there or thereabouts in the betting.  Probably the one Nicholls will win with DB, as I am siding with Cheltenham Festival winner and useful flat performer, Teddy V.

2.40 Cheltenham - Just wonder if former Nicholls horse Tataniano isn't worth giving another vote of confidence at a big outside price of 22 on Betfair.  Wearing the famous red and white colours of Big Buck's, he's a memorable horse, although I dug out this article from 2010 that Mr Nicholls would probably rather forget!

2.55 Fontwell - Benvolio (NAP) - With Ruby Walsh off the books at Ditcheat, I think the line up of jockeys should be able to be compared with the squad of Tottenham Hotspur this year.  Losing a superstar, but gaining a balance.. Sadly for Spurs fans, they are playing dreadfully dour football, while Nicholls has at his disposal his number 1 Daryl Jacob, claimer Harry Derham, a pumped-up Twiston-Davies and one of my Twitter faves, Nick "Melodic Rendezvous" Scholfield, who takes the reins on this even money banker today.  I know who I would rather be watching ply their trade this term and it's not the scum from Edmonton!

3.15 Cheltenham - Flaxen Flare - easy one for me this as FF gave me a huge 31/1 boost on Day 3 of last season's festival.  Was 12/1 this morning, but has been clipped into around 8s since Segal selected him again, lauding his trainer Gordon Elliott and describing today's conditions for the four-year-old as "perfect".

3.50 Cheltenham - One last Nicholls stab - Southfield Vic - same colours and close relative of the aforementioned near-misser from yesterday, and PFN seems more confident about this one than he did about that!

Over in Ireland, blog favourite and new Racing Post columnist Bryan Cooper has a good book of rides, picking up strongly-fancied Don Cossack from the banned Davy Russell in the 1.40 Novice Chase.  While the only bet I've had over there is on Hurricane Fly in the fourteen-fifteen formality, why not have a look at this blog from my Twitter pal Steve, as he seems to have a good handle on things over the water.

Class is Permanent, but Form can bring home the Fillips

For the past couple of weeks, I've had the honour of writing a review blog for the website of quality magazine Golf Monthly.  This piece appears on there via this link, and my first two blogs can be found here and here...

The old sporting adage often tells us thus: “form is temporary, class is permanent”.  You only have to look at events at the Crucible Theatre these past couple of weeks to know that is a fair assessment of the powers truly classy individuals hold over their rivals in the quest for silverware and cash in their particular field.   

The nearest Ronnie O’Sullivan has come to pink balls in the last twelve months has been whilst working on a pig farm, and yet he rocks up in the biggest snooker tournament on earth and makes porkmeat of opposition who, in their own right, are amongst the pantheon of potting, the best on the baize.

In golf betting, FiTCiP, if you’ll permit me the acronymisation, is regularly borne out too, with the victory of a huge outsider like Derek “who?!” Ernst at Quail Hollow this weekend extremely unlikely to be repeated when the runners and riders line up at TPC Sawgrass for the Players Championship on Thursday.   Ernst was available at around 300/1 with the bookies pre-event and was rated an eye-watering 999/1 shot by the layers on the Betfair exchange, according to this excellent debrief of last week’s action from Steve Rawlings.   Putting it another way (and that’s putting, not PUTTing): the percentage chance Derek Ernst had of winning the Wells Fargo Championship was somewhere between 0.33 and 0.10 percent.  Needless to say he wasn’t in my portfolio:

Laying Lefty was the sole shrewd weekend move

Many think, quite rightly, that golf is a difficult sport to predict, and therefore to make money betting on, but the other two tournaments last weekend (in China and Indonesia) provided big glimmers of hope, and lead me to question the very fabric of the FiTCiP concept.  Obviously class is permanent, and it’s no surprise that golf has been dominated in various modern eras by class: Nicklaus, Palmer, Player, Watson, Woods, to name a few.  

But let’s not be so harsh on Father Form here.  Look at those names closely and form, specifically course/region form, is perhaps more ubiquitous than the Class Camp would have us believe.  Jack Nicklaus dominated at Augusta (six Masters titles); Watson prevailed on UK soil at the Open (five Claret Jugs); Woods appears four times in the top five of this list of golfers who “own” certain PGA Tour Events – nobody else has won more than one event as many times as Tiger (bagged six tour titles more than five times each; 15 titles in his native state of Florida). 

Aussie Greg Rumford took the Volvo China Open, making him a back-to-back winner on far east tracks having won the Ballatine’s in South Korea the week before.   Meanwhile Victor Dubuisson, top-10 in India’s Avantha Masters, top-five in Malaysia and identified in BetSWOT’s excellent China Open analysis went one better than last year’s fourth-place finish at Binhai Lake Golf Club, finishing third with two bogey-free closing rounds and returned some top 10 money.   

The Racing Post’s golf betting oracle, Steve Palmer, called Bernd Wiesberger, who I backed with £50 e/w at 10/1 “the bet of the week”.  Bernd bullied the field at the 2012 Ballantine’s, winning by five strokes, and took the Indonesian Masters in a Royale Jakarta Golf Club playoff against Ernie Els to gain his second Asian title.

Bernd baby, Bernd

Form may be temporary, but therefore it can be preciously profitable.  Consider that this weekend at Sawgrass, a ball-strikers’ paradise where past winners have built up considerable course knowledge before capturing the unofficial fifth major.  GM's Fergus Bisset highlighted as much in last year’s preview.  I like the look of Masters Champ Adam Scott at 18/1 with Paddy Power paying 6 places e/w (Stan James 16/1, 7 places e/w).  Anyone who can stand on the 17th tee, looking across at ET's head, and keep his head having been there before, needs to be respected and could well bring back the booty.

 

Booty: Phone Home

 

***

Since I started shopping around a bit more for the best prices, which aren't always  found on the Betfair exchange, my Palphabet portfolios have become so varied I've felt the need to keep notes on my iPhone.  I've mentioned before that using http://www.oddschecker.com is vital to building a balanced book for the weekend's betting enjoyment, and with the bookmakers all competing for your custom, there are some tempting offers out there that have to be considered.  This week, however, all of my wagers have been placed on the exchange, with the exception of the Adam Scott bet.  What you lose on the outright part of the stake (Betfair layers have him at 21/1 compared to Power's 18/1) you make back on the fact they're giving you an extra place at a quarter the odds, i.e. 9/2... the same price you can get on Betfair for a top 5 finish.

 

 

Punchestown Day 3: Decisions, Decisions..

It is not often a choice I find myself mentally wrestling with, but today the turmoil inside my cranium is clouding everything else around me: guys or girls?  If it's a straight-up brawl between two adults, I would normally say the guy would win, although I hasten to add I do not in any way condone this kind of violence.  If it was a case of me being presented with one of each for an hour of rolly-polly in the bedroom, I would side with the fairer sex - a girl - although again, if you prefer guys, that's absolutely fine.  Today, over three miles in the Ladbroke's World Hurdle, though, I'm being forced to choose between Solwhit and Quevega, and I just don't think I know what to do.

Solwhit has eight grade 1 victories to his name and is relishing the longer distance races, having been upped in trip from around the 2m4f mark to 3m at the Cheltenham festival.  Three weeks after festival success in the west country, he went on to claim another festival title, this time at Aintree.  And as Sprinter Sacre demonstrated almost flawlessly on Tuesday, it is not impossible to go over to Punchestown and achieve a hat-trick of national hunt festival titles in exactly six weeks.  Not impossible, but surely improbable for Solwhit when you consider the counter argument.

Quevega has won this race at each of the past three renewals.   She has an outstandingly impressive five Cheltenham Mares' Hurdles under her belt.  And that belt can be tightened ever so slightly more than Solwhit's today as she will carrying a not inconsiderable amount less around her midrift than the rest of the field, receiving as she does an allowance of 7lbs on account of her being a "she".   She is also slightly bigger in the outright market - currently 3.0 on Betfair compared to Solwhit's 2.46.

On top of that, there is Holywell to consider amongst the challengers, himself a festival winner and a very game looking runner-up to Solwhit at Aintree earlier this month.  Reve de Sivola has been tipped by Paul Kealy in the Racing Post on account of the conditions at Punchestown, as has Zaidpour (by Longshot Ed Quigly).  In a race paying only two places each-way, though, the exacta looks the bet to me.  But which way round?  I'm going to go heart over head and say Quevega from Solwhit.  The price in the outright market appeals more too.  If only Big Buck's was over there... this puzzle would be a hell of a lot easier to piece together!

 

On top of this Grade 1 today is the 6.40 Ryanair Novice Chase and I was delighted to see Tom Segal (after his success at Epsom yesterday with Area Fifty One) pick out Alderwood, who had earlier appeared in my Inbox courtesy of the At The Races "Tracker" service.  I got the 7/1 with Coral this morning so hope he can get the better of Benefficient - ridden by the man I was waxing lyrical about just yesterday - Bryan Cooper.

Yesterday could have been a lot better - the solitary bit of Punchestown profit on the P&L report below came from laying Ballycasey, but the subsequent lay of Sir Des Champs was extremely misjudged.  The multiple returned a reasonable amount back, with Kie winning at Perth, Gassin Golf narrowly missing out at Punchestown and First Lieutenant making the places in the Gold Cup, so I was reasonably satisfied with the consolation that the payout could have been much bigger with a spot more luck.  I'll keep sniffing them out and hopefully one of them will come in soon... but until then, I'll just rely on Tom Segal to save my bacon with big priced winners on the flat like Area Fifty One.  Out of this world stuff, Tom - our very own punting X-File.



 

 

 

 

Betting on Golf to Compile a Palphabet Portfolio

Ah the weekend.  Time to leave the responsibilities of selling medical device products behind me and embark upon a bumper three-day break where I can fully focus on the markets.. Particularly since my wife-to-be, Mrs Palphabet, is away on her hen-do, most probably baking cakes and singing hymns with absolutely no male-strippers in sight.

I want to talk about golf. 

I have never broken a three-figure score.  My dad, my younger brother and my little brother are all decent players, but over the past month I have won more money gambling on the game than they have.  I am no longer the black sheep of the family.  I am the black bull of white-ball betting.  I am blowing through my ringed nose and brushing at the dust with my hefty hoof, weighed down by wonga. 

The past month's Palphabet P&L

When I compile my weekly golf portfolio, I religiously do two things.  I wouldn’t say that I am necessarily religious, but when it comes to golf, I’ve found myself becoming more spiritual as the competitions roll on and the prophet of profit becomes more apparent.

Firstly, on a Tuesday, I download and listen (at least once) to the William Hill Golf Podcast, which is expertly put together by Lee Phelps ( @leephelps ), hosted by Dave Kelner ( @dkelner ) and superbly supported by Mike Grenham ( @mgrenham ).  I have to listen to it a couple of times because I normally plug in the Dr Dre earphones when I bed down, and I usually fall asleep to the laid-back groove of the theme tune, not because the lads are all northern and their easy accents soothe me into a slumber.  You can find the podcast here.

Next, I bound eagerly into my local ‘paper shop and pick up Wednesday’s RP, where Steve Palmer’s piece(s) provide unmissable insight into the US and European tour competitions.  Occasionally I miss the copy in the newsagents and have to beg my local Ladbrokes or JenningsBet to let me have the back pages at the end of the day.  I think they find me slightly odd.  This article shows why I am anything but.. although maybe makes SP look a bit weird!

I see these activities as a ritualistic must.  The optional extras come by way of my mate Tom Clarke’s excellent Golf Monthly column, which can be found here, and through discussion with my pal @paolobow, who is a keen follower of Mr. Jeremy Chapman ( @jeremychapman3 ), an authority on the game from back in the day, who still comes up with the goods.

Armed with all of this information, it’s time to make my selections.  When the stars collide and more than one of the above pick the same player, I get rather excited.  It’s time to go in big.  Otherwise I basically follow Palmer’s selections, although maybe not quite as heavily as he advises large stakes on short-priced market leaders, and then supplement with a couple of my favourite golfers.   For courses that demand accuracy off the tee, I like Westwood and Garcia.  When the par-fives are plentiful and power is a prerequisite, but precision is preferred I might go for Nicolas Colsaerts or Louis Oosthuizen.  For wide fairways that sympathise with flamboyancy and inconsistency, I like Alviro Quiros and Rafael Cabrera-Bello, who often start at big prices and are very tradeable if they get off to a good start, better still if they make the cut.  Likewise, I often back John Daly at huge three-figure prices and hope he puts together a good round on the Thursday.   Seung-Yul Noh is a genuine favourite of mine.. I tend to back him every week he gets involved, regardless of the track, which probably isn't particularly wise.  He’ll bring home the bacon soon though, I’m sure.

Following your favourite golfers on Twitter can really help you communicate with the game.. as this snapshot of Seung-Yul Noh's timeline demonstrates so perfectly.

 

As well as the characters involved, the statistics available are great too.  Ball-striking is one I really enjoy looking at.  'What golfer can’t strike a ball well?' I used to ask.  Well, this is actually a hybrid stat combining figures for driving distance, driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation (getting on the putting surface with two putts to make par) and is a gem for making your choices.  In fact, think of stats as your punting caddy, whispering words of wisdom in your ear, encouraging you to attack that tough pin position.

 At Kiawah Island for this year’s PGA, for instance, distance was very important.  With 7,800 yards to cover, so was scrambling – saving par when you miss finding the green-in-regulation.  Rory McIlroy looked huge at 19-1 given that these statistical strengths are key features of his rock-solid game.  Tipped up by Steve Palmer, Dave Kelner, Mike Grenham and Jeremy Chapman, what more could a punter ask for?  I expected to turn to my horoscope and read "Get on R-Mac, you crazy half-man half-beast Sagittarian.. what other pointers do you need??!" 

He won by eight shots, destroying the field at the tough Pete Dye designed golf course. 

Ror' on the Shore returned more than layers bargained for

In-play golf is great for gambling too, as the market often overreacts and regards a lead going into the final round as a reason to send the odds nosediving towards odds-on.  Laying Adam Scott at the start of the final round of this year’s Open, and going in again throughout his excellent front-nine, meant that (although not winning much when you include the money on top-5 finishes), I came away from the heavy betting weekend unscathed.  Backers were still supporting him at 1.05 (1-20) on Betfair, trying to take advantage of 5% returns unavailable with high-street banks, but finding themselves stuck between their very own Northern Rock and a hard place (if they backed each-way).   It seems that most golfers wobble when entering the final round of a tournament at the top of the leaderboard, unless their name starts with a 'T' and ends with 'iger'.

How about no, Scott

 

Opposing Jim Furyk at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational at 2.36 won me £71.85, covering 3 points worth of initial investment as he failed to capitalise on a strong position.  Similarly, going against Robert Garrigus at the Canadian Open meant I won £3.20 after commission, rather than losing well in excess of a hundred quid.

Of course, the tactic of laying a short-priced leader doesn’t always work out, especially when the players you’re praying will fail are fully-paid up members of the God-squad.  As I said before, I’m not religious, and sometimes that counts against me.  Here, I tried to lay the hell (sorry Zach) out of Johnson, and credit to the lad he did his best to help me in the exciting playoff with Troy Matteson, finding the water to the left side of the hole before eventually winning with a wonderful 190 yard 6-iron bunker shot that cost me over £400.

ZJ and Gay caused a bad day and put pay to a profitable play

 

As well as following the Twitter handles I've already plugged, I recommend using the Golf Channel's website and app to stay abreast of proceedings and using www.oddschecker.com to get the best prices, as they can vary enormously between firms and exchanges, especially when backing each-way.  Finally, find a few like-minded golf-betting buddies with whom you can sing the various tunes that Sky Sports use to punctuate their golf coverage - great "beds", as I believe they're called in the broadcasting game.

***

Tonight, as I type, Roberto Castro has just aced the 14th, Sergio Garcia and Vijay Singh are right in contention at The Barclays, held at Bethpage State Park in New York, and Nick Watney looks to be the lay of the weekend.  Tiger is battling through pain, looking ominously placed and smiling with the aforementioned bible-basher Johnson, whom he used to (allegedly) torment with pornography when they roomed together on tour.

All this enjoyment from a game that Happy Gilmore once described as requiring “goofy pants and a fat arse”.  I enjoy playing and watching golf, but I love betting on it.

Cheltenham 2012 - Day 4

The dust has settled, the souvenir festival magazines have been published, the BBC has lost the rights to cover major horse races, and the time is right to have a glance through the legs of the fading hangover horse, as last week is pulled up to a spontaneous and heart-felt round of applause.

Ruby Walsh & Kauto Star prepare for battle

Having laid Long Run and followed Tom Segal in on Synchronised, I was never overly concerned about the winner of the Gold Cup on Friday as I had pretty much all eventualities covered (the fact that Nicky Henderson’s stable boy didn’t add the favourite in the 3.20 to his acca spoke volumes and I was happy to oppose The Dentist’s horse at 2-1).  I just wanted Kauto Star to come back unscathed.

Yes, having placed a 4pt wager at around 6-1, I would have preferred him to have gone all the way and cross the post ahead of his rivals, but the second it was realised that he was being led away from the track there was a wave of distinct emotion.  First, momentary deflation could be felt amongst the throngs of onlookers packed inside the enclosures.  This gave way to a palpable sense of relief (accompanied by the impromptu clapping) before finally, I think I felt a twinge of pride.  Proud to have been present to see him bowed out by the horseman who knows him best. 

Ruby Walsh demonstrated in two very different rides this week why he is such a lauded jockey – on Big Buck’s, who seemed to be cajoling his rider: “go on Rubes.. prove to me that you really want to win this fourth World Hurdle” – and then on Kauto: “come on Rubes.. I’m not right here fella.. let me bow out with dignity.”

The fact that AP McCoy went on to give Synchronised such a gritty, determined, talented and vein-bulging push to beat The Giant Bolster and Long Run up the hill, felt to me like a fitting tribute to Kauto and to Ruby.  Festival Gods seemed to be saying "If the people’s horse isn’t able to finish the race, let’s give the people another white-faced horse to love." 

Synchronised ain’t as pretty as Kauto, and AP’s ride was a real street brawl to watch, but it showed heart, and too many heads had backed Long Run for my liking.  Emotion and devotion won the Gold Cup on Friday in many ways.

Here’s how I finished the week from a gambling point of view. Relatively satisfied with the final figures, particularly after the run of losing bets on what I’m now dubbing “Black Wednesday,” there are a few lessons that have been learnt and some “what-ifs” to consider. Overall, though, I went with my gut, and loved every minute of it.



-£33.65 on Horse Racing over the festival.  Noteworthy profits were banked thanks to the 45-1 winner (0.5pt each way) in the Triumph Hurdle on Friday, Countrywide Flame.  I only got a text with the tip on the day so couldn't blog it in advance - sorry!  A close second to this was Sunnyhillboy, Tom Segal's tip in Thursday's amateur riders' handicap chase.  I also had a 10pt bet on Big Buck's to claim that fourth World Hurdle.  At 1.91 on Betfair, I thought this represented both great value and also provided the racing highlight of the week. 

Offers like Paddy Power's "money back special" in the Arkle meant that Sprinter Sacre could be cheered on readily as the bookmaker refunded my losing bet on Al Ferof.  Sprinter Sacre's performance was undoubtedly one of the moments of the week, and whilst many turf accountants' race day deals made me think that backing horses in the ante-post markets is becoming increasingly less attractive, I doubt Mark "The Couch" Winstanley will agree on this occasion.  He advised SS a couple of months ago, recommending a 10pt maximum stake at a monster price! 

Apart from £20 lost in cash on the tote at the track, and including this return of £65, my total P&L for the week came to about -£58 to goodness only knows what stake.  As a wise man once told me: turnover's vanity, profit is sanity. 

At the track: Palphabet pals Westdrop aka The Alpha (left), Norbet (right) and yours truly.

Westdrop tucks into our hosts' famous fry-up on festival Friday morning.

The Racing Post did a magnificent job of capturing the essence of the festival with some breathtaking front-page splashes.  Norbet and I were pleased that the local outlets had stocked up with copies of the 'paper.

As the festival draws to a close, the Palphabet gang contemplate what to do next. Synchronised seems smug at the enormity of his day's work, and back at the guest house, a little kratooie seems sad to have missed out on proceedings.

     



Jaegerbombs are ordered and consumed at the Racing Post party (sadly I couldn't find any of their journos to harrass, so pestered Mark Langdon on Twitter instead) and in the morning the tweed is packed away until next time.

Cheltenham 2012 - Day 3

In Amongst the Action

The Palphabet Pals (without our other pal, Alpha, who arrived later)
Left to Right: Norbet, Me, Simon, Paolo

Apologies in advance for the permeating hangover dribbling out of my supine position in a Cheltenham guest house.  I say guest house, I’m basically staying in someone’s family home, in their attic spare room.  But it’s fine – the family who inhabit this fine tenement, nestled just 15 minutes from Cheltenham’s bustling Montpellier district, are warm and welcoming, reflecting the overall vibe of festival week.

Last night the only downside of an otherwise pleasant evening was the disappointing service in Indian Voojan.  The food was decent but after a memorable meal last year, they certainly let themselves down this time.  Aside from that, the afternoon spent watching races in the familiar surroundings of a pub, with free WiFi allowing online gambling transactions to flow swiftly and without complication, made me realise that time has flown by so quickly since last Cheltenham Festival Thursday (when I was doing much the same as I’ve just described).

P&L was healthily restored by Big Buck’s triumphant defence of his World Hurdle crown.  As if it needed confirmation, he really is an all-time legend of staying hudlers and I just love his lazy attitude to a race – Ruby really had to work hard to get him over the line, but only because Buck’s wanted him to.  Watching the re-run of the exciting contest in a pub later was just as thrilling, and was punctuated with the audio backdrop of the Kaiser Chief’s “Ruby Ruby Ruby Ruby – ahhhhhahhhahahhhh” and the Stones’ “Ruby Tuesday”.  It was Thursday, but fine.

Today I cannot describe how special it will be to see Kauto Star win back the Gold Cup title for a second time.  Surely it will guarantee his status as the greatest race horse of all time.  I’m on antepost at prices ranging from 4-1 to 11-1 (during “the scare”) and will top up at the track.  Burton Port is my alternative selection at 7-1 e/w.

Our hosts are making breakfast for us now so I have no time to go into great detail about the rest of my Friday bets.  In short they are:

1.30: Baby Mix (backed antepost at 22-1 and now 6-1) and either Grumeti or Balder Succes – not sure yet – both 8-1 .. also like Dodging Bullets and 24-1 looks big

2:05 Raya Star 12-1

2:40 Lovcen 17-1 and Fox Appeal 28-1

3:20 as discussed above

4:00 no selection yet

4:40 I’msingingtheblues 25-1

5:15 Tanks for That 14-1 and Kid Cassidy 13-2

Anyone know any other good curry houses in Cheltenham?

Wayne - King is good for you

Readers of my recent festival preview will have noticed that Alan King featured throughout, and I was delighted to hear Tom Segal picking out Wayne Hutchinson as one of his favourite jockeys when I finally got around to watching his Morning Line appearance on tape this fine Sunday dawn.

http://www.palphabet.blogspot.com/2012/02/go-with-your-gut.html

At Chepstow yesterday, Hutch provided King with a 5-1 winner in the shape of Oh Crick, who was sporting blinkers for the first time at a track where his trainer had drawn a blank in 45 previous attempts over the past 843 days. I didn't know all this when I placed a 1pt stake on the horse, and this was King's only runner at the Monmouthshire course yesterday, but it gives me a thrill to discover such facts in retrospect.

Elsewhere, Grumeti showed again that when he doesn’t end up on his nose, he wins.  With a rating of 154 and on the up, Grumeti, under Choc Thornton, went off clear favourite and duly dispatched challengers in the Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle over 2m.  Paul Nicholls’s Dodging Bullets provided the only real opposition inside the home straight but Grumeti was cruising and proved the 1.51 Betfair SP correct.

King currently boasts a 51% RTF figure, meaning that across the past fortnight, just over half of his runners have Run to Form (within 5lb of their RP rating) and the newspaper felt fit to highlight his success in Saturday races worth £10k or more with this eye-catching headline:

All in all, I'm delighted with my position on Medermit for the Ryanair, excited about the prospects of West End Rocker (and to a lesser extent Hold on Julio, who I have not backed ante post) and hope King, and Wayne Hutchinson's good fortune continues as the festival draws inexorably closer.

DP

Minsk Mix Up

Oh.. before I forget.. isn't this funny - Minsk has been being talked up as one to watch since switching from long, flat races to jumps, and I had a point on him for the JCB Triumph Hurdle.  Baby Mix disappointed last time out but I thought 23 looked big about the grey gelding, so I backed him ante post yesterday too.  Minsk failed to deliver at Kempton and is now double the odds I got him at, whilst Mix (one-third of a Saturday afternoon Paddy Brennan threesome) has been cut to 7-1.  The favourite is now the aforementioned Alan King trained Grumeti (6-1), who I have not had anything on!

Go With Your Gut

I read recently that Tom Segal, the legendary prophetic inhabitant of the Racing Post’s Pricewise pages doesn’t like to spend excessive time poring over the form when advising punters where to put their pound.

"X" Marks the Spot - Quickfire Tipping from the Gut

Taking a similar approach, and after a few indicative national hunt trials, I turned to page 24 of Sunday’s ‘paper and quickly marked out my favourite ante-post fancies for the forthcoming few fortnights, as I prepare for back-to-back festival Fridays at Cheltenham and Aintree.  I've then gone through the selections and made some brief notes in an attempt to justify my initial gut feelings. Let me know what you think.

Cheltenham

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Cinders and Ashes (10-1) Donald McCain's novice hurdler got off to a winning start to his career on the NH flat scene before coming 5th in last year's festival Bumper.  Reversed the form with an impressive nine-length victory over Nicky Henderson's Keys at Aintree before Christmas and whilst Steps to Freedom's stats of 1F1-0111 look ominous, I'm comfortable with the fact that Cinders jumped off the page at me.

Arkle – Sprinter Sacre (6-4) This horse is in my head because Mark "Couch" Winstanley tipped him up in the RP a few weeks back for a characteristically low-key 10pt stake at a much bigger priced.  SS has impressed ever since.

Champion Hurdle – Hurricane Fly (4-5) / Binocular (8-1) exacta - Like many, I have the hots for H-Fly, who looks a beauty and has beaten all who stand in his way in this contest that would give "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" a run for its money with regards to lead actor & supporting cast.  A son of Montjeu, Fly's figures of 1111-11 make this look like a foregone conclusion but I like the value play of adding the inconsistent 2010 Champion Hurdler Binocular to a [reverse]exacta following his impromptu win at the weekend.

Mares’ Hurdle – Quevega (8-11) She's the female version of Big Buck's - banker.  Having said that, I will place an unmatched bet and let it ride on the exchange just in case Voler La Vedette is around the 28-1 mark leading by a few lengths going over the last.  Unaccompanied is heading straight to Aintree and gives this mare affair the miss.

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle & Albert Bartlett  – Fingal Bay (9-2 and 7-1 respectively) The unbeaten Fingal looks a good prospect for the future and I backed him a few months ago for both these races following success in November at Cheltenham.  I still think these prices are fair although the shorter price for the Neptune suggests that's where trainer Philip Hobbs is aiming him so I'm glad I got him at 6.4 on Betfair.

RSA Chase – Grands Crus (9-4) / Invictus (12-1) exacta - Assuming Crus doesn't line up on Friday for the Gold Cup, you have to fancy last year's World Hurdle runner-up to continue the flawless example of jumping showed on Boxing Day at Kempton Park.  Pair up the short price about Grands Crus with in-form Alan King's Invictus, who was immediately cut for this race from 33-1 and 50-1 in places to as short as 6-1 now but still available at 12s.

Queen Mother Champion Chase – Sizing Europe (11-10) I had Henry de Bromhead's defending champion at 9-1 last year and like Hurricane Fly & Big Buck's, he looks likely to regain his crown this year.  Cost Sportingbet a fortune when winning the Tingle Creek in December, forcing the bookmaker to return all losing bets (I got my £50 back on Wishfull Thinking and stuck it all on Kauto Star for the King George, which was enjoyable).  He has the hoodoo over most of his rivals but I might go for a value bet on Somersby or add him to a forecast with Sizing.

Ryanair – Medermit (9-1) à Let’s not forget, as well as Invictus, Alan King also had wins this weekend with Lovcen and Balder Succes, who can be backed at 30 on Betfair for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.  Everywhere I look I seem to see King's name, so I was ecstatic to be awoken by the news this morning, just hours after I put it on Twitter, that Tom Segal also picked Medermit as his Ryanair ante-post selection.  A case of Pricewise following Palphabet perhaps?? Cue price crash.  His performance at Ascot this weekend was gallant, recovering well from a mistake he ran Riverside Theatre all the way to the line, and I've got cold feet about backing Jimmy Nesbitt's headline grabber at reactionary prices.  Rubi Light has been hacking up on Irish turf that wouldn't look out of place on a 1970s second-division football pitch, and a lesser horse would have crashed out after landing on top of a Gowran Park fence on  Saturday.  There's no doubt Rubi has plenty in the tank, but with a dry, sunny March in store, I think he'll end up as a BF in the Ryanair at Cheltenham.

Will Minsk "dig" deep for the JCB Trophy?

Triumph Hurdle – Minsk (7-1)  Balder Succes (14-1 for this race) is probably 30 for the Novices’ as King needs to decide whether to run him over longer distance against more experienced company, including stablemate Grumeti (10-1 here).  I had Grandouet for the JCB Triumph last year after a decent couple of warm-up experiences, and was left disappointed but I remember reading a few people, including Segal, saying Minsk was one to follow for the season.

World Hurdle – Big Buck’s (8-13) I don't need to say anything about Buck's.  Even if he picks up the Ditcheat cough, he'll be absolutely fine come St Patrick's Thursday.

Already Advised

Gold Cup – Kauto Star (7-2) recommended at 4-1 - Long Run did nothing [apart from win] to convince me to betray my heart and believe!  The bookies seemed quick to cut a bit of their liability on Kauto too

National Hunt Challenge Cup – Soll (8-1) recommended at 12-1 - R Walsh & WP Mullins are both bullish about this 7 year-old chestnut gelding, who provided Willie with the fastest ton of seasonal winners in Ireland when chasing over 2m4f at Down Royal earlier this month.  I've had 2pts e/w at 12s, a bit more at 9s and would like to think that Soll, sired by Presenting, will bring home this 4-mile cup for half-brother and recent retiree Denman

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/down-royal-soll-brings-up-mullins-milestone-in-style/982938/

Aintree

Grand National – West End Rocker (20-1 on Ladbrokes and Betfair) - When the weights were announced for the National, I looked down the list and straight away fancied West End Rocker.  As already mentioned, I have subsequently had Alan King's name ringing around my ears.  WER didn't just win the trial over the Grand National fences in December, he absolutely destroyed Niche Market and the rest of the field in the Becher Handicap Chase with Wayne Hutchinson on board.  Granted, the ground was heavy, but I like the price and wonder if Robert Thornton might take him round in April, especially since King's only other entry, Hold on Julio, won under Hutch from chasing veteran Neptune Collonges at Sandown during Choc's injury-induced absence.

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-weights.php

Well, that certainly took longer to write than it did to go through the markets putting "Xs" next to names of nags! This time in three weeks, we'll know whether or not some of these instinctive picks have prevailed. Looking forward...