Punchestown Day 3: Decisions, Decisions..

It is not often a choice I find myself mentally wrestling with, but today the turmoil inside my cranium is clouding everything else around me: guys or girls?  If it's a straight-up brawl between two adults, I would normally say the guy would win, although I hasten to add I do not in any way condone this kind of violence.  If it was a case of me being presented with one of each for an hour of rolly-polly in the bedroom, I would side with the fairer sex - a girl - although again, if you prefer guys, that's absolutely fine.  Today, over three miles in the Ladbroke's World Hurdle, though, I'm being forced to choose between Solwhit and Quevega, and I just don't think I know what to do.

Solwhit has eight grade 1 victories to his name and is relishing the longer distance races, having been upped in trip from around the 2m4f mark to 3m at the Cheltenham festival.  Three weeks after festival success in the west country, he went on to claim another festival title, this time at Aintree.  And as Sprinter Sacre demonstrated almost flawlessly on Tuesday, it is not impossible to go over to Punchestown and achieve a hat-trick of national hunt festival titles in exactly six weeks.  Not impossible, but surely improbable for Solwhit when you consider the counter argument.

Quevega has won this race at each of the past three renewals.   She has an outstandingly impressive five Cheltenham Mares' Hurdles under her belt.  And that belt can be tightened ever so slightly more than Solwhit's today as she will carrying a not inconsiderable amount less around her midrift than the rest of the field, receiving as she does an allowance of 7lbs on account of her being a "she".   She is also slightly bigger in the outright market - currently 3.0 on Betfair compared to Solwhit's 2.46.

On top of that, there is Holywell to consider amongst the challengers, himself a festival winner and a very game looking runner-up to Solwhit at Aintree earlier this month.  Reve de Sivola has been tipped by Paul Kealy in the Racing Post on account of the conditions at Punchestown, as has Zaidpour (by Longshot Ed Quigly).  In a race paying only two places each-way, though, the exacta looks the bet to me.  But which way round?  I'm going to go heart over head and say Quevega from Solwhit.  The price in the outright market appeals more too.  If only Big Buck's was over there... this puzzle would be a hell of a lot easier to piece together!

 

On top of this Grade 1 today is the 6.40 Ryanair Novice Chase and I was delighted to see Tom Segal (after his success at Epsom yesterday with Area Fifty One) pick out Alderwood, who had earlier appeared in my Inbox courtesy of the At The Races "Tracker" service.  I got the 7/1 with Coral this morning so hope he can get the better of Benefficient - ridden by the man I was waxing lyrical about just yesterday - Bryan Cooper.

Yesterday could have been a lot better - the solitary bit of Punchestown profit on the P&L report below came from laying Ballycasey, but the subsequent lay of Sir Des Champs was extremely misjudged.  The multiple returned a reasonable amount back, with Kie winning at Perth, Gassin Golf narrowly missing out at Punchestown and First Lieutenant making the places in the Gold Cup, so I was reasonably satisfied with the consolation that the payout could have been much bigger with a spot more luck.  I'll keep sniffing them out and hopefully one of them will come in soon... but until then, I'll just rely on Tom Segal to save my bacon with big priced winners on the flat like Area Fifty One.  Out of this world stuff, Tom - our very own punting X-File.



 

 

 

 

Punchestown Day 2: May The Ricc Get Riccer

On many occasions this past year I’ve found myself singing the theme tune to early 1990s American sitcom Hangin’ with Mr Cooper.  Whilst that show, however, centres on zany NBA player-turned-substitute-teacher/gym coach Mark Cooper, my singing of the catchy number (which I didn’t realise until now was recorded by hot quartet En Vogue) has been precipitated by a Bryan Cooper win over the sticks.  I think he may well have two or three today and, despite the cough, I’ve been warming up the vocal chords.

Another one who has two solid chances this afternoon is Richard Johnson.  In the era of AP McCoy, Johnson has never had the opportunity to be champion jockey but has consistently performed, has over 2000 winners in the bag and, along with Barry Geraghty is one of only two active riders who have claimed all four championship races at the Cheltenham Festival.   The perfect, patient, peach of a ride he gave Pateese a couple of weeks ago at Ffos Las illustrated his talent for horsemanship and I've had my eyes peeled for a Dicky J opportunity to get stuck into ever since.  So with that in mind...

4.20  - Gassin Golf - Johnson's horse is in receipt of 7lbs from market leaders Call me Bubble and Viconte du Noyer, Mullins's double-handed attack on the 2m hurdle.  Gassin Golf's trainer, Richard Lee has not entered a nag over jumps in Ireland for more than a decade.  Jockey booking and trainer decision adds significance to this one.

4.55 - Seefood - Cooper's first booking of the afternoon on board Aintree Mersey Novices' Hurdle placer who finished behind Gary Moore's 22/1 outsider that day, Ubak.  Dropping back in trip here, if the ground quickens up I think he might be worth an each-way bet. 

5.30 - First Lieutenant - this is a really difficult one to fathom out.  Following his Ryanair runner-up finish and subsequent Aintree Betfred Bowl victory, I don't want to abandon Cooper's horse now.  Without Bob's Worth, this race could be won by pretty much everyone (apart, perhaps, from Chicago Grey and Quito de la Roque, but even he is C&D here after novice win two terms ago).  Will also be each way on Kauto Stone who, with 88 days' rest, is the freshest contender going in at a big price.  Tom Segal has picked Richard Johnson's massive opportunity of the day: Captain Chris. He's also recommended backing Riverside Theatre, both of these selections seem to like it flat and right-handed.  Long Run has still never finished outside the top 3, but he's a bit short in the betting isn't he?  Might just lay Sir Des Champs, who laboured over the finishing line up the Cheltenham hill, and get the rest of the field on side.... but all the trends say Sir Des will win!  So tricky... Paddy Power will refund bets if you come second to Sir Des Champs though.. could be an option.

6.40 - Much easier!  Rubi Light I like, but gives a lot of weight to the rest of the field.  I'll be backing Mr Cooper's Canaly and having a saver on Nadiya de la Vega.

7.15 - sentimental one in the bumper really - Overwater - half-sister to Soll and the trainer expects more from her, although the jockey booking of Miss K Walsh adds a little bit of more serious anticipation.

Finally, I also like Donald McCain's Kie, who's running in the four-horse 4.35 race at Perth this afternoon,

Yesterday was OK.  I got a bit carried away after Zest for Life’s victory, using the profit to weigh in on Champagne Fever in-running after Rule the World was ruled unable to continue (reports subsequently emerged of a non-critical pelvic fracture).   The Spinter Sacre / Sizing Europe exacta provided an inevitable boost and simply added to Henderson’s beast’s untouchable spectre.   My £82.50 Lucky 15 gave back £30.

Champagne Fever is owned by recently “retired” Barclays banking boss Rich Ricci, an appropriately-named chap some of whose horses seem to have appropriated names, like cork-popping Fever himself and Fatcatinthehat.   He owns the favourite in today’s 4.55: Ballycasey.   Searching a winner yesterday, I backed Ricci’s Moyle Park, who brought back £80 of winnings for me and £15,447 for him.  He’ll be able to buy a new cat and a new hat with that.  Happy retirement Rich! 

Punchestown Day 1: Go Bigg on the Gigg

One of the seriously serendipitous side-effects of this chest infection I’m currently suffering is the sleeplessness associated with consistent coughing.   Couple that with anticipation for the beginning of this year’s Punchestown Festival and you get the perfect recipe for early-morning blog writing. 

St G: Character on a Horse

With only next weekend’s Ultimate Celebration Meeting at Sandown remaining on this year’s national hunt agenda proper, it’s almost time to reflect on another exciting year in the sport of kings and queen.  Despite the overpowering patriotism felt at Palphabet HQ today though, on this day of our patron Saint George (himself an accomplished horseman by all accounts), it is vital to keep the emotion of Englishness at bay when looking at this afternoon’s big-race card in Ireland.

Boasting three opening day Grade 1 races, Tuesday 23^rd April looks very much geared up to be dominated by home-trained horses, with the notable and hugely exhilarating exception of English raider Sprinter Sacre.  Nicky Henderson’s superstar travels overseas for the first time, where he is sure to continue answering questions on the track with an exuberant arrogance unparalleled by his peers at present, and a disdain that eclipses even the way in which Jeremy Paxman asks the questions on University Challenge.   

So let’s hope, at the gong, that we can get a few answers ourselves.  The first race of the day is the 3.40 three-mile chase:

Zest for Life at 5/1 isn’t a bet I would be hanging today’s gambling hat on.  The soft ground doesn’t appear to be particularly in the favour of the 2010 winner of this race, whose trainer and track specialist Enda Bolger (19% success rate here from 83 runs) admitted prefers quicker conditions.   At the price though, and with a 7lb claimant on board, Zest is preferred over favourite and stablemate Near Perfection, who is nearer 5/2 in the betting.

4.20’s Grade 1 two-mile novice hurdle sees a mouth-watering rematch of Cheltenham’s Supreme Novice Hurdle.  Winner Champagne Fever and third-place Jezki are back on home soil and looking to take advantage of the absence of My Tent or Yours, runner-up in March and subsequent winner in the lower class novice hurdle at Aintree earlier this month.  

Festival Fillip

Mullins and Walsh got my 2013 festival off to a cork-popping flyer with a 6/1 fillip but I’m going to desert the dream duo today and side with Davy Russell’s Gigginstown House Stud mount, Rule the World at 9/2.  A four-length defeat at the hands of The New One in the 2m 5f Neptune Novices’ Hurdle was form-franked in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle, Rule the World only has a few pounds to find on the two market leaders here, and has beaten an off-colour Champagne Fever in Ireland before.  Ted Veale, a big priced Palphabet winner of the Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, is rated 10 pounds lower than Rule the World so I have to rule him out. 

It's worth pointing out at this stage, that BetVictor.com are giving punters their money back if your horse finished 2nd to a Willie Mullins winner.  Could prove a useful insurance policy here and in the 6.40.

 4.55 Handicap Hurdle:  Looking down the weights at another horse owned by the GHS, Beef to the Heels is my meaty selection here.  Priced at 43/1 on Betfair, 25/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power (who pay five places each-way in this race) and intriguingly only 20/1 with magic sign firm Ladbrokes, who are renowned for their Irish knowledge, I’ll be getting the knife and fork out on this slice of betting beef.  Trained by Gordon Elliott, this course and distance winner is ridden by Miss Jane Mangan, who is 2-3 on him and 6-9 when booked by Elliott.  In a competitive handicap like this, the jockey’s knowledge of her horse is nearly as important as her 5lb allowance.  Nearly.

Still got £12 of this bet unmatched

5.30 Champion Chase:  I see no reason not to follow up the exacta from the Cheltenham Queen Mother Champion Chase with the same bet here.  Sprinter Sacre win, Sizing Europe next.  Could be a similar procession, but Sprinter Sacre has not been treated to the same break as his nearest rival here, so a 20-length demolition job may not be repeated.  Sacre continues to deliver though so who knows – the gap between these two might be even bigger!

Swerving the bumper, where Mullins’s Moyle Park is strongly fancied, the 6.40 Champion Novice Chase is the final Grade 1 of the opening day and Ruby Walsh looks to have a huge chance to extend Back in Focus’s winning run to five races.  Pricewise has selected Dedigout, and with two of my earlier selections adorned in the iconic maroon and white star of the aforementioned Irish racing powerhouse, the Gigginstown House Stud (owned by shrinking violet and Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary), who am I to disagree?  If you read this before 8.30am today, wait until then, when you should be able to get a better price than the 5/1 or 11/2 available right now (some bookmakers agree to hold the price at which Tom Segal tips his horses for about 15 minutes from 8.30am and Dedigout was put up in today’s Racing Post at 13/2).

With a "powerful three-horse assault" on tomorrow’s Punchestown Gold Cup, this could be a big week for the Gigg – they are represented by Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant and Quito de la Roque in Wednesday’s fascinating contest.

*** 

A final word for this fantastic festival - the timings of the races are excellent and more or less allow full enjoyment without the risk of being sacked for diving into a betting shop every half-hour.  Even if I wasn't off sick with this blasted chest infection, I'm still confident I would be able to tuck in with almost weekend-esque abandon.  Enjoy!