Cheltenham 2012 - Day 1

Palphabet Off to a Flyer with all but the Hurricane on a Whirlwind First Day

Cinders & Ashes, Quevega and Sprinter Sacre provided Palphabet with a successful start to this year’s Cheltenham Festival and a profitable first stab at prospective previews rather than just retrospective reviews.  Unlike Sprinter Sacre's brilliance, these tipping triumphs won’t last long, so I’m going to relish it this evening and keep looking forward with hopefully just a hint of smug permeating into this piece.

Cinders & Ashes and Hunt Ball both gave decent returns, whilst Quevega paid out £74 from a 6pt stake

The biggest damage to the coffers was done today by lumping £135.43 on a Hurricane Fly / Big Buck’s double at 2.64 on Betfair, and is yet to be reflected on the above P&L.  I did have a place bet on Rock on Ruby though, so the Champion Hurdle didn’t leave me too cold, and I was impressed again with Overturn’s fierce gallop.  Binocular showed signs that he would get going, but his inconsistencies continued.  Despite not tipping it in advance, I had a 1pt stake on Hunt Ball (and a smaller, losing bet on Harpsy Chord) that means I can go into tomorrow with a fully loaded gambling gun.

http://www.palphabet.blogspot.com/2012/02/go-with-your-gut.html

Tomorrow’s bet on Soll (now 8-1) drew enough attention when I put him up at 12s to be chosen by the nice people at sportingbet.com to form part of their “Cheltenham Chat” podcast (which you can hear here).  I have been lumping on Mullins's son of Presenting for the past couple of months and cannot wait to see him bring home the booty over the stamina-testing 4m Amateur Riders' Novices' National Hunt chase, which is first up on day two of what is now trending on Twitter as #CheltFest.

UPDATE 14-03-12 ... Read my guest blog preview of this race on Scott Ferguson's www.sportismadeforbetting.com here

With two of my antepost selections gone (Alan King's Invictus and Fingal Bay), I will eschew the complicated forecasts tomorrow, stick to Grands Crus (6-4 from 9-4 advised) in the RSA Chase and go for another of King's entries in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle: Battonier (9-1).

UPDATE 14-03-12 ... With Battonier declared a non-runner this morning and the Betfair selection voided, I have put my 1pt e/w on Make Your Mark instead. Davy Russell's ride for WP Mullins offers good value at around 10-1 and I've rather go there than Simonsig, about whom I have my doubts.

As Somersby opts for Thursday's 5f longer trip in the Ryanair Chase, tomorrow's Queen Mother Champion Chase price about Sizing Europe (11-10 as advised a month ago) is no longer available, but the 20-21 currently offered on the Betfair exchange is only a fraction shorter, and should be hoovered up.  I'll also have a bit of Kauto Stone for a place at around 11-4. 

In the later contests on Wednesday afternoon, AP McCoy is worth backing on board Jonjo O'Neill's Get Me Out Of Here in the Coral Cup at 12-1 - after Hunt Ball's performance today I won't be put off by the weight!  I also like Brendan Powell, who claims 5lbs atop the Dr Richard Newland trained Act Of Kalanisi (20-1).  Vendor (4-1) is the one to go for in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle, another Alan King horse who Choc Thornton put up as his nap of the week, but Kie jumped off the page at me available at 59-1 so I will have a small wager each way on this one of McCain's, who will have a fired-up Jason Maguire on board after his win in the Supreme today. 

Exhausting, exhilarating, and only just beginning!

DP

Wayne - King is good for you

Readers of my recent festival preview will have noticed that Alan King featured throughout, and I was delighted to hear Tom Segal picking out Wayne Hutchinson as one of his favourite jockeys when I finally got around to watching his Morning Line appearance on tape this fine Sunday dawn.

http://www.palphabet.blogspot.com/2012/02/go-with-your-gut.html

At Chepstow yesterday, Hutch provided King with a 5-1 winner in the shape of Oh Crick, who was sporting blinkers for the first time at a track where his trainer had drawn a blank in 45 previous attempts over the past 843 days. I didn't know all this when I placed a 1pt stake on the horse, and this was King's only runner at the Monmouthshire course yesterday, but it gives me a thrill to discover such facts in retrospect.

Elsewhere, Grumeti showed again that when he doesn’t end up on his nose, he wins.  With a rating of 154 and on the up, Grumeti, under Choc Thornton, went off clear favourite and duly dispatched challengers in the Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle over 2m.  Paul Nicholls’s Dodging Bullets provided the only real opposition inside the home straight but Grumeti was cruising and proved the 1.51 Betfair SP correct.

King currently boasts a 51% RTF figure, meaning that across the past fortnight, just over half of his runners have Run to Form (within 5lb of their RP rating) and the newspaper felt fit to highlight his success in Saturday races worth £10k or more with this eye-catching headline:

All in all, I'm delighted with my position on Medermit for the Ryanair, excited about the prospects of West End Rocker (and to a lesser extent Hold on Julio, who I have not backed ante post) and hope King, and Wayne Hutchinson's good fortune continues as the festival draws inexorably closer.

DP

Minsk Mix Up

Oh.. before I forget.. isn't this funny - Minsk has been being talked up as one to watch since switching from long, flat races to jumps, and I had a point on him for the JCB Triumph Hurdle.  Baby Mix disappointed last time out but I thought 23 looked big about the grey gelding, so I backed him ante post yesterday too.  Minsk failed to deliver at Kempton and is now double the odds I got him at, whilst Mix (one-third of a Saturday afternoon Paddy Brennan threesome) has been cut to 7-1.  The favourite is now the aforementioned Alan King trained Grumeti (6-1), who I have not had anything on!