Betfair versus the Bookies - The Virtues of Value

The blog below is also available on www.golf-monthly.co.uk as an edited article.  I have been blogging for GM over the past few months now and am thoroughly enjoying the opportunity given to me by the country's best golf mag.  Thanks TC ; )

Stenson won!  StensWon, as he shall be known forthwith, rewarded loyal backers with a 35/1 Betfair booty bonus and delightfully demonstrated two things.  Firstly, that it’s prudent to peruse the punting purveyors for prices, and secondly that persistence and consistency lead to confidence and prosperity.

Heroic Henrik was 28/1 with BetVictor before the off last week, 25/1 with all other bookmakers, but was being readily layed (or laid, if you’re that way inclined) at 36 on the exchange. 

 

Minus Betfair’s commission (usually around 4-5% unless you roll high on a regular basis – mine is currently 4.8%), profit on the £20 win-only stake (before being offset against losses) was a devilish 666 pounds and forty pence.  The same money with Mr Chandler would have returned you £560, a shortfall of £106.40.  So don’t get sucked in by those ridiculous Dennis Pennis adverts.

 

 

Equally, don’t always assume that you have to be with Betfair to “Cash Out”, or that they are the only firm offering value.  Yes, their interface makes the ability for punters to hedge bets condescendingly easy (as shown below), and yes, they are often better priced than the market (as they were last week for StensWon), but you are not “settling for less” every time you opt to place your bets the old fashioned way.

Rather than "Cash Out", I normally favour hedging my bets manually by "laying off", particularly when I still have faith in my original selection

 

In this week’s Omega European Masters, with no FedEx Cup stuff in America, focus is fully on Europe, and I like one of the market leaders: Brett Rumford.  Similarly to StensWon (and this also incorporates my second theme: form), the multiple European Tour winning Australian has been in scintillating nick this term, notching up two titles and two strong top ten finishes in the past two weeks. 

Betfair have Rumford at 32 (31/1 in fractional odds).  He is currently 33/1 with bwin.com and Bet365.  Annoyingly bwin.com don’t do each-way terms.  This is particularly unfortunate for me since Bet365 restricted my account to Granny-bets after I took them to the cleaners in a three month winning window of wonder earlier this year, but I digress.   

Knock off your commission on a £20 stake with Betfair and you pocket £590.24 with them versus £660 with Bet365 (although don’t expect to be able to get a score on with the Stoke-based bookie the following week if Rumford revels!)

I also fancy Frederik Andersson Hed this weekend (runner-up at the stunning Crans-sur-Sierre last year, sixth in 2011 – again; form, consistency).  I don’t need to demonstrate the mathematics for you to work out that you’re better off with Betfair at 95 than you are with the bookies at 80/1. 

If the prices are the same on the exchange as they are with your bookie, it goes without saying you should take your business to the latter, who won’t take any commission if you win (but will take all your losses if you lose, unlike Betfair, who only take their commission fee).

Clear?  Great!

***

Aside from the golf, it's been an eventful few weeks at Palphabet towers.  Actually, that's utter drivel because I haven't spent an awful lot of time here at HQ.  I ventured on an eight-day professional sojourn to Melbourne and Sydney, which involved five days of work, two days of enjoyment, and a day of travelling.

The enjoyment came in droves (whatever they are).  Giant scoops of sporting droves served up in a double-schooner of MCG-branded beakers.  Yes, the Melbourne Cricket Ground was every bit the legendary venue it is cracked up to be. 

 

 

Talking of crack, or craic, Ireland was my next stop, where our friends’ wedding took us from County Monaghan to Galway City, fuelled by the black stuff and the rich tobacco of tightly rolled Cuban cigars.  All the while the gambling has been going well, until the new Premier League Football season started.

 

 

A Full Head on the Pints Only

 

Mrs Palphabet (right) and Her Pal Jules Sampling the Local Beverages

 

Finally, a trip last weekend to the Salisbury Plain.  A visit to Richard Hannon’s yard to see my mate’s new syndicated horse, Mr Greenspan.

 

 

Hannon's Gallops and Popular Filly Maureen

 

Up Close and Personal with Mr Greenspan - a HUGE two year-old colt

 

Watch this space for a more detailed blog on Mr G and the MCG, coming soon.

 

Palphabet

Continuing to Weave Pure Cotton Enjoyment into The Rich Tapestry of Life

 



Cheltenham 2013 - Day 2

All aboard the Champagne Express! I must admit I feel drunk on the bubbles and sick with the thrill of the high-octane power inflicted by Messers Mullins and Walsh today. Whilst trackside observers were fortunate enough to witness Ruby Tuesday in the serenity of the Cotswolds, many of us had to slip out of our regular routines to find a television in order to be able to witness the most hotly anticipated day of the national hunt racing calendar, and it has a physical effect on us!

Returning to work after a selection has won or lost can be equally as difficult. Shaking, sweating and unable to focus on your professional tasks; colleagues looking at you with suspicion and confusion. Even if you haven't had a gamble, watching or listening to those contests today was enough to distract even the most casual of racing fans.

Ruby Walsh performed at his absolute best this afternoon. the three winning rides upon Champagne Fever, Hurricane Fly and Quevega perfectly highlighting the harmony with which Ruby connects to his equine partners in very different ways.

Champagne Fever made all the running in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, holding off the JP McManus pair of Jezki and the favourite, My Tent or Yours, their iconic green and yellow hoops flanking the pink of Champagne, and rewarding followers of yesterday's blog with a 6/1 return to kick-start proceedings or reward for laying MTOY at around 2/1.

£375 profit to start the day - BetVictor would have refunded £50 of my
stake had Champagne Fever failed to get the corks popping

Ruby knew: "he jumped like a stag" were his poignant words to Alice Plunkett in the immediate aftermath of a race in which his TurfTrax times were at least a couple of seconds quicker than his ride in the second grade 1 hurdle of the day, the championship race - the Champion Hurdle.

But the ride given to Hurricane Fly in the more prestigious contest was the antithesis of Ruby's earlier victory. In the build up to the race, I got caught up in the excitement and recalled with more clarity (thanks to the channel 4 replay) the disdain with which the Fly recently won the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. Having backed Zarkandar with the Paddy Power offer, I took Hurricane Fly on Betfair at 2.74 and also backed the forecast with bet365. A mile into the race I was worried. Hurricane Fly seemed uncomfortable in his stride, was off the bridle and being asked to give more and was jumping with clumsiness. But somehow, Ruby calmed the 2011 champion hurdler down and found some rhythm. Sidestepping the fallen Grandouet and back in control, he hunted down Rock on Ruby and the impressive (and young) Countrywide Flame, who I had antepost and topped up on each-way before the off, with the precision of a marksman. It was a breathtaking finish to an extraordinary race.



Last-minute money on Hurricane Fly with Betfair...Money back on losing Zarkandar bet with Paddy Power 

 

Simonsig vs Overturn disappointed in the Arkle, with the grey getting the job done, but with none of the fluency we were expecting, and the brave McCain trained flat and hurdle hero Overturn unable to get Simonsig to tire under the scrutiny of a rapid pace. I let out a small sigh, having laid Simonsig and backed overturn, whilst Backers of Simonsig / Quevega doubles breathed a sigh of relief.  After all, the Mares' Hurdle was a foregone conclusion.. wasn't it?

I quite literally backed the wrong horse.. and layed the right one too

At 1.8 on Betfair, the market didn't seem sure, so I have a £100 on her, with a speculative £10 e/w on Swincombe Flame and a bit on the Pricewise pick, Swing Bowler. Ruby Walsh further demonstrated his versatility on board the four-time Mares' champion, holding her back in amongst a packed field, and biding his time. Now, I don't know if he got the tactics absolutely spot on here or not, but I was calm and assured until it seemed Ruby had left it too late to get out into the open and urge Quevega on. He doesn't thrash at horses like many other jockeys, instead Ruby seems to connect with his animal, and this ride was reminiscent of the most in-depth interrogations Big Buck's has been subjected to on the rare occasions he gets cross-examined by his inquisitors. Quevega put her hoof on the racing bible and under oath, swore to deliver a 27/1 treble to backers of the three big hurdle winners today. Ruby's emotional delight at his trio of day one triumphs was matched only by the humble understatements of his trainer, WP Mullins, who simple stated how grateful he was for being given the opportunity to train these things. Incredible stuff.

Satisfying returns in the Mares' Hurdle as Quevega made history 

Spinning with success, the final profitable moment of the day for this blog came like a serendipitous additional train back home having delightfully dozed off and missed your stop. Already firmly in the green, and with my festival accumulator very much alive, Radjhani Express picked me up from Paradise Parkway and delivered me straight to the front door of my place on Astonishment Avenue. I had some confidence in Sam Waley-Cohen's chances, but at 25/1 (advised yesterday at 28/1), and with little support in the press amongst those who know far more than I do, it was phenomenally satisfying to collect another big chunk of cash at the close of a fantastic fillip-filled festival funday.

£470 profit for the day on Betfair to go with £375 on BetVictor, with about £50 of non-refunded losses elsewhere made it a smashing first day's work

 

Anyway, onto tomorrow.


National Hunt Chase

I honestly have no idea about this one yet! Will have a look in the morning but this was the race I tipped Soll for last year. The money I lost on the first race of day 2 last year saw me spiral out of control and lose about a grand on what we call "Black Wednesday" so I look down the card with a mixture of trepidation as the memories flood back, and also relief that I don't have any very strong fancies. It's an amateur jockey race, and so the first rider I looked for was today's winner Sam Waley-Cohen, but he doesn't have a ride booked - maybe he's busy putting a filling in someone's molar tooth in his dentist surgery? Only Godsmejudge for Alan King and Tofino Bay, ridden by Nina Carberry are jumping out at me at the moment, so I might have a small play on those two.

Neptune

All the talk has been for Pont Alexandre, who provides another opportunity for Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins to extend the lead they are enjoying over their rivals. At 2.58 on Betfair, I'd rather be a backer than a layer to get off to a solid start to the day with what many are calling the nap of the week!

RSA

Right - I'm on a Ruby Walsh / Paul Nicholls jockey / trainer double for the week and I'm going to go for Unioniste here. Boston Bob is being talked up as one who has been tilted for this race, and he will like the ground, but I'm going for the Ditcheat based grey, who wears the same eye-catching colours as another of my favourite horses, Al Ferof. The only other one that jumps out at me is Goulanes, but that's mainly because I immediately associate him with the gorgeous Kate Miller from William Hill, as she tipped him up to me at this same track just a few months ago.

"Queen Mum" - the Champion Chase
Nothing can beat Sprinter Sacre tomorrow. I'm on in my accumulator and think he will follow up last year's Arkle with another display of supreme leaping and rapid accelerating, doing so with that peacock-esque flamboyance that says he really knows he's bloody good. Mail de Bievre to follow him home at 5.2 for a place on Betfair looks good to me. I'm just glad Finian's Rainbow is nowhere to be seen.. he might be under the weather, but I'm not a fan and don't think he deserved this prestigious title last year when he got the better of Sizing Europe amidst all the "do-we-jump-don't-we-jump?" in the closing stages of the race.

Coral Cup

Pendra - half way down the weights, running off a mark of 139, figures of 1-112, AP McCoy desperate to get his first win of the week, odds of 17/2 available - done. Black Thunder for a place as an additional selection for Mr Nicholls at 7/1 on Betfair seems a reasonable price. He couldn't win when 9/2 favourite off the same mark of 145 when he had a claimant (Harry Derham) on board at Kempton in January but that is the only time he's finished outside the top 3 since his career began, you'll get a return if he finishes in the top 4 here, and the last time he was victorious was out in the west country on the softish left-handed undulations of Chepstow, not dissimilar to the conditions at Cheltenham in the morning.

Fred Winter and Bumper
No selection yet - it's been a long day and I need some rest.. but with the 2m Bumper featuring Joseph O'Brien riding for his father aboard Shield, chamion of the flat Richard Hughes saddling up on Sgt Reckless for legendary trainer Mick Channon, and Graham Lee chasing down a staggering 1000th win under rules with Caledonia (a 100/1 shot), there's a lot to consider in what many would usually write off as an end-of-the-afternoon donkey derby.

Phew..  I think Leyton Orient's win at home to Portsmouth tonight really took it out of me!

MORNING UPDATE:  I've backed Caledonia for the Bumper and, in the Coral Cup added another target - Ericht: trained by Nicky Henderson,  his jockey takes a massive 10lbs off a horse already only carrying 10-10 and with form figures of 1711, his last three rides being taken by Barry Geraghty and the one before that.... by today's jockey Gary Derwin.  I was delighted to see last year's Palphabet "Jumps Jockey of the Year" Brendan Powell Jr getting a win in a similar profile in yesterday's JLT with light-as-a-feather Golden Chieftain. 

Enjoy.

Hedge-hunter: Why it can Pay to be Prudent

As a man who regularly enjoys gambling on horse racing, I like to be fairly limited in my stakes.  It is easy to get carried away with the riches of the National Hunt calendar at this time of year and the schedule certainly gives us betting people a regular opportunity to have a wager.  So it is wise to be selective in your forays into the markets and perhaps use the opportunity to indulge in a Lucky 15 to prolong your enjoyment and limit your exposure.   My attention has recently been drawn to Betfred’s mouth-watering offer of trebling the odds on your sole winning bet if your multiple yields just the one victor, so I find that added insurance a tempting attraction.  

Despite often putting a great deal of research into my horse selections prior to putting down my punt, however, I seem to find myself haemorrhaging overall profit via impulsive itches to get stuck into in-play football matches, often flicking Sky Sports on and taking a view on the likelihood of the game to reward its viewers with a few goals.  Ray Winstone is a convincing actor (you only have to watch his portrayal of Henry VIII to know that), and the seductive cockney growl he employs on Bet365’s television commercials is not lost on me.

This is where money can easily be lost.  Odds on over / under 2.5 goals regularly teeter around the evens mark, so when I fancy a few onion-bag bulgers to go in, I will select Betfair’s over / under 3.5 goals market instead, and look for an opportunity to trade.

One such opportunity presented itself over the Christmas break.  Lean Liverpool, with a pacey, goal-hungry attack visited a bloated, too-much-turkey QPR who were down on their luck and seemingly devoid of desire to do anything about it.  The over 3.5 goals bet looked the play, so I got involved with a hefty wager, exposing myself to £250 worth of losses at a price of 3.0 (2/1).  

Luis Suarez duly delivered the early blow, breezing past QPR’s centre backs after just 10 minutes and opening proceedings with a slick goal.  By half time the scoreline was 0-3 to the away side.  QPR looked dead and buried, and Twitter was awash with criticism of the lack of fight, spirit and skill shown by the west London hoops.

But that’s how things stayed.  The result at the final whistle was the same as it was at the break: 0-3.  If I had staked my £250 on over 3.5 goals in a betting shop, I would have lost my money.  Instead I hedged my position on Betfair as the odds tilted in my favour.  Here’s a few pictures to tell the story:

***

OK – so the market rated the likelihood of this game rewarding us with more than three goals as a 33.3% chance.  I certainly thought it was more of a 50/50 shot so £250 went down prior to kick off, which was scheduled for a Sky Sports televised 4pm.  You can see the time at the top of this picture – after Liverpool went one up, the price on over 3.5 goals fell from 3.0 to 1.42 (a 70.4% chance).  I fancied Liverpool to press on and thrash QPR, but wanted to limit some of my losses, so I hit the lay button – effectively offering someone else to bet that there will be 3 goals or fewer.  You can see that I now stand to lose £100 (under) and win £381.20 (over).

 

 

Still with me?  Good.  A few minutes later, the controversial Uruguayan striker shot another dagger to the heart of QPR’s woefully inept defence.  At 0-2 it seemed almost inconceivable that this match wouldn’t be an absolute goalfest.  The market moved again:

 

Now the odds on more than 3.5 goals have shortened to just 1.11.  This is suggesting that there is a 90% probability of two more balls hitting the net before full-time.  The backers are out in force, thinking they’re buying money, and throwing cash at overs.  A £100 stake here would return £11 profit minus Betfair commission.

I decide to “exit” the market completely at this stage.  This gives me a free bet as my initial stake has now been returned and I either win (at best) or lose nothing (at worst).   There is only a hint of doubt that the goals won’t continue to fly in, but I’d rather not be risking anything if I don’t have to, and freeing up my £100 of remaining also exposure means I have funds available to bet on something else!  Frustratingly, Daniel Agger made it three to Liverpool after 28 minutes of play, so for a while I was thinking that I’d given up some much-desired profit.  As it eventually transpired, I needn’t have worried...

 

 

I use the iBetMate App on my iPhone, but for users of the official Betfair app, here’s what your screen would look like in this scenario.  They have this “Cash Out” feature on there which does the work for you.  At this point, hitting that big yellow button would mean that, whatever the outcome, I would win £346.72.

Greedily gorging myself over Christmas was not limited to the dinner table, though, and I still thought that Liverpool would get a fourth, hoping that maybe a half-time kick up the backside from ‘arry Redknapp might see QPR get one back.

So at half time, I made myself a cup of tea and had a little think before acting.  Rather than giving myself an opportunity to earn over £300 on either outcome, I laid a bit more of over 3.5 at around 1.2 and locked in a minimum of £190:

 

I’m sure you get the picture by now, and by way of balance I want to demonstrate that my trading on goals in football matches is not always this successful.  Discipline is key, and you should probably set yourself some profit targets before commencing your day’s work.  The following week, I had a similar strategy in the Southampton v Arsenal game, but didn’t execute the tactics with anywhere near as much effectiveness, resulting in a loss of £250.  I take some comfort in a good old fashioned wager though, and the £160.10 won on Suarez to score twice against QPR still feels better than the sensible hedging and trading of the goals market.  I guess while us gamblers might want to see ourselves as clever merchants of the multitude of markets available to us, deep down, we’re all seeking the thrill of a big win off a small stake!

Nightmare end to a Whirlwind Week

Wow. Yesterday’s Super Sunday was a day of sport that would have warranted a national holiday, had Sunday not already been designated as a day of rest for most of the western world.  Messi putting Neymar in his place, Villa unable to defend corners, Phil Jones showing a good turn of foot but a suspect temperament in front of goal, City responding to United’s lunchtime pressure in a way befitting the champions elect.  Add to that Big Buck’s performance on Saturday, Raya Star franking Rock on Ruby’s form over hurdles and RVB crashing out of the PDC last night, and it’s been a weekend for sports fans to savour.

Unless you were laying bets on the exchanges that saw you in this position by Sunday night:

Period: Last 3 Hours Last 6 Hours Just For Today From Yesterday Last 7 days Last 30 days Last 3 Months Download to Spreadsheet ? (relates to event settlement date) (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)

Golf: -£167.53 | Horse Racing: -£124.17 | Snooker: £177.78 | Soccer: -£655.57 | Special Bets: -£25.52 | Tennis: -£58.81 | Tote: | Total P&L: -£853.82

I am deliberately looking back over the past 30 days rather than the past 24 hours – I’d like to think this is because I take a long-term view of my trading and focus on moving averages rather than short-term fluctuations. The truth is I daren’t look at my isolated weekend P&L for fear that it may result in my Christmas having an outlook of pessimism similar to that of a battery turkey.

The Australian wallet returned just over a ton of profit thanks to IJP prevailing down under, returning some solace off a £17 stake at just a couple of points shy of 9-1 but that has done little to lift my spirits during this supposed time of good will to all men.

I have, however, got some bets on for the yuletide period, and I want to carry on testing my hypothesis that you see a higher than average number of red cards in mid-week televised football matches played under poor weather conditions featuring teams at opposite ends of the skill spectrum or with something significant to play for.  My optimism for profit has been boosted by this schedule of televised fixtures:

Mon 19	Crystal Palace v Birmingham (7.45pm)	7.30pm	Championship
Tue 20	Blackburn v Bolton (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League
Wed 21	Wigan v Liverpool (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League
Thu 22	Tottenham v Chelsea (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League

The odds offered against a sending off in those matches are all between 3/1 and 5/1, and as such, I will be looking closely at tonight’s match.  Crystal Palace and Birmingham have just one red card between them so far this season and are separated by just one place and one point in the league so far this season.   Birmingham’s sole sending off came, however, in a match away to Cardiff, who are above them in the Championship and will have tested their defence enough to draw Curtis Davies into a last-man challenge that denied Kenny Miller a goalscoring opportunity [despite replays proving the decision made by referee Anthony Taylor to be incorrect]. 

http://www.birminghammail.net/birmingham-sport/birmingham-city-fc/birmingham-city-fc-news/2011/12/05/birmingham-city-boss-blames-curtis-davies-sending-off-for-defeat-97319-29894224/ 

Whether or not Crystal Palace’s attack will cause the same problems is a moot point.  A swift glance at the prowess of these teams in front of goal does not reveal a potent strike rate for either side and a red card is currently trading at fairly priced 9/2 on Betfair. 

http://www.football-league.co.uk/page/ClubShooting/0,,10794~20117,00.html

Might leave this one alone and wait for some more clear indicators in the other mid-week fixtures.  The biggest danger after a weekend of losses like I’ve just had is to dive straight back in... isn’t it?!

Finally, thanks to radio 5 Live, who had me on their racing show last week - it was an honour to be on the airwaves amongst such exalted company as Cornelius Lysaght and Mick Fitzgerald with Mark Pougatch.  Thanks also to Chris Graham and the www.sportingbet.com podcast boys for the plug - looking forward to more media appearances in the new year!

For those that didn't catch me on the Denman show - here's the audio http://tvider.com/view/73280 

Trading on Five-Day Cricket: A Test of Nerve

12th August - 25th August 2011
Cricket: £152.08 | Golf: £37.73 | Horse Racing: £92.23 | Soccer: £2.92  Total P&L:  £284.96

The series may have ended in a joyous whitewash of India for the new holders of the ICC mace, but as Swanny celebrated like a demented fish in the middle, I was somewhat more sedate on the sidelines.  Yes, I was delighted that the side I have seen at Lord's against Sri Lanka twice this summer, and followed from Edgbaston to the Oval against the former world number ones, have reached the pinnacle of test cricket, but I'm left feeling empty at the prospect of a load of one-dayers and T20 matches, even with the promises of some heart-racing trading opportunities.

When I'm honest with myself, I can only put this emotional void down to the fact that I feel the £152.08 profit yielded over the past couple of weeks could have been so much more had I not panicked during Monday's final day of play in south London.

Having layed £200 at 1.55 about the draw after the first day's play, and strengthened with an additional stake of £80 at 3.4, I was looking a healthy profit dead in the face.  With the same steely resolve that Rahul Dravid showed as he racked up a monster 146*, carrying his bat, and eschewing a lie-down to come straight back out of the India dressing room after Strauss enforced the follow-on, I was convinced that a wall had been built around my cold-blooded Betfair persona.

Looking back, the warning signs were there.  I had been a bit shaky, a tad nervy, waking up very early (04:32!) on Monday and worrying about the weather forecast, I backed the draw, but immediately reversed that decision and re-layed, having read a more favourable predictor of meteorological events.

Then on the final day of the test match, with sun drooling down on the Oval proving the weatherman correct, and Tendulkar being carried along by rookie night-watchman Amit Mishra, the markets started turning against me.  Like Gambhir backpedalling to a Kevin Pietersen top-edge, I failed to sieze the opportunity I had been given, and fell over myself, eyes rolling about in my heed, as the draw became clear favourite on the exchanges.  Heading towards lunch, the draw fell from odds-against, to evens, to 1.8 then 1.65 and it all became too much for me.

With a recent post whirling around my dizzy dome (http://palphabet.blogspot.com/2011/08/pricewise-on-rolland-its-rubbing-off.html) and convinced the markets were reflecting reality, I decided to back out of the position, and waded into the draw like I was being pulled in by quicksand.  £650 backed at 1.65.

I went from GREEN, GREEN, RED to RED, RED, green in a space of seconds.. lunch was taken, and the draw fell further to 1.4.  I felt some relief.  But I kept saying to myself: "What if SRT and this part-timer lose their wickets? What if Swanny starts extracting some of that famous Oval turn?  What if the new ball makes a difference?"  

Chatting it through with @paolobow, we weighed up some of these possibilities, but had to accept that the right decision had probably been made.  The draw stood at 1.17 and I layed off £100 of my stake, reducing my £44 profit on the draw down to about £25 and thinking it was better than nothing.  

Then - drama! My ESPNcricinfo app started buzzing through to me - OUT! A Mishra 84 b Swann.... woah..ok......then OUT! SR Tendulkar 91 lbw b Bresnan... oh no.. like Gambhir coming to his senses and realising the error he had made, I suddenly felt ill (yet simultaneously gutted for Sachin and yet delighted for Brezza).  I was exposed to the tune of around £300 on an England victory.  A couple of hours ago, that outcome would have netted me nearly £400. 

I checked the markets: the draw stood at 1.6... still, even with those wickets falling.  I didn't understand it.  Taking an impulsive deep breath, I submerged myself again, laying £300... "Success!" said the iBetMate App that I used, "Bet UNmatched".  How that can be regarded as success in such spine-tingling moments, I will never know.  I adjusted the odds offered to 2.2 and clicked submit.  £300 matched at 14:58.

By 15:02, just four minutes later, the draw was out to 5.4.  I layed £30 and watched in awe as the figures lengthened further, the markets sent into haywire by a spell of 7 wickets for just 21 runs in an insane afternoon calypso-collapse by the struggling subcontinentals.

So, I walked away with a profit of £89.13 from this fourth and final test match.  It could have been much more, but I suppose a hell of a lot worse.  The whole episode re-emphasised to me that, whilst betting on test-cricket, you need to keep a) a close eye on the odds and b) your head....don't let the panic of the punters cloud your judgement or you'll miss the ball and end up like goggley-eyed Gambo on your back with a market-migraine..

Please click to enlarge and view the full extent of the turmoil