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Showing posts with label Markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Markets. Show all posts

Monday, 19 March 2012

Cheltenham 2012 - Day 4

The dust has settled, the souvenir festival magazines have been published, the BBC has lost the rights to cover major horse races, and the time is right to have a glance through the legs of the fading hangover horse, as last week is pulled up to a spontaneous and heart-felt round of applause.

Ruby Walsh & Kauto Star prepare for battle
Having laid Long Run and followed Tom Segal in on Synchronised, I was never overly concerned about the winner of the Gold Cup on Friday as I had pretty much all eventualities covered (the fact that Nicky Henderson’s stable boy didn’t add the favourite in the 3.20 to his acca spoke volumes and I was happy to oppose The Dentist’s horse at 2-1).  I just wanted Kauto Star to come back unscathed.

Yes, having placed a 4pt wager at around 6-1, I would have preferred him to have gone all the way and cross the post ahead of his rivals, but the second it was realised that he was being led away from the track there was a wave of distinct emotion.  First, momentary deflation could be felt amongst the throngs of onlookers packed inside the enclosures.  This gave way to a palpable sense of relief (accompanied by the impromptu clapping) before finally, I think I felt a twinge of pride.  Proud to have been present to see him bowed out by the horseman who knows him best. 

Ruby Walsh demonstrated in two very different rides this week why he is such a lauded jockey – on Big Buck’s, who seemed to be cajoling his rider: “go on Rubes.. prove to me that you really want to win this fourth World Hurdle” – and then on Kauto: “come on Rubes.. I’m not right here fella.. let me bow out with dignity.”

The fact that AP McCoy went on to give Synchronised such a gritty, determined, talented and vein-bulging push to beat The Giant Bolster and Long Run up the hill, felt to me like a fitting tribute to Kauto and to Ruby.  Festival Gods seemed to be saying "If the people’s horse isn’t able to finish the race, let’s give the people another white-faced horse to love." 
Synchronised ain’t as pretty as Kauto, and AP’s ride was a real street brawl to watch, but it showed heart, and too many heads had backed Long Run for my liking.  Emotion and devotion won the Gold Cup on Friday in many ways.
Here’s how I finished the week from a gambling point of view. Relatively satisfied with the final figures, particularly after the run of losing bets on what I’m now dubbing “Black Wednesday,” there are a few lessons that have been learnt and some “what-ifs” to consider. Overall, though, I went with my gut, and loved every minute of it.



-£33.65 on Horse Racing over the festival.  Noteworthy profits were banked thanks to the 45-1 winner (0.5pt each way) in the Triumph Hurdle on Friday, Countrywide Flame.  I only got a text with the tip on the day so couldn't blog it in advance - sorry!  A close second to this was Sunnyhillboy, Tom Segal's tip in Thursday's amateur riders' handicap chase.  I also had a 10pt bet on Big Buck's to claim that fourth World Hurdle.  At 1.91 on Betfair, I thought this represented both great value and also provided the racing highlight of the week. 

Offers like Paddy Power's "money back special" in the Arkle meant that Sprinter Sacre could be cheered on readily as the bookmaker refunded my losing bet on Al Ferof.  Sprinter Sacre's performance was undoubtedly one of the moments of the week, and whilst many turf accountants' race day deals made me think that backing horses in the ante-post markets is becoming increasingly less attractive, I doubt Mark "The Couch" Winstanley will agree on this occasion.  He advised SS a couple of months ago, recommending a 10pt maximum stake at a monster price! 



Apart from £20 lost in cash on the tote at the track, and including this return of £65, my total P&L for the week came to about -£58 to goodness only knows what stake.  As a wise man once told me: turnover's vanity, profit is sanity. 

At the track: Palphabet pals Westdrop aka The Alpha (left), Norbet (right) and yours truly.
Westdrop tucks into our hosts' famous fry-up on festival Friday morning.
The Racing Post did a magnificent job of capturing the essence of the festival with some breathtaking front-page splashes.  Norbet and I were pleased that the local outlets had stocked up with copies of the 'paper.



As the festival draws to a close, the Palphabet gang contemplate what to do next. Synchronised seems smug at the enormity of his day's work, and back at the guest house, a little kratooie seems sad to have missed out on proceedings.


     


Jaegerbombs are ordered and consumed at the Racing Post party (sadly I couldn't find any of their journos to harrass, so pestered Mark Langdon on Twitter instead) and in the morning the tweed is packed away until next time.

Monday, 19 December 2011

Nightmare end to a Whirlwind Week

Wow. Yesterday’s Super Sunday was a day of sport that would have warranted a national holiday, had Sunday not already been designated as a day of rest for most of the western world.  Messi putting Neymar in his place, Villa unable to defend corners, Phil Jones showing a good turn of foot but a suspect temperament in front of goal, City responding to United’s lunchtime pressure in a way befitting the champions elect.  Add to that Big Buck’s performance on Saturday, Raya Star franking Rock on Ruby’s form over hurdles and RVB crashing out of the PDC last night, and it’s been a weekend for sports fans to savour.
Unless you were laying bets on the exchanges that saw you in this position by Sunday night:

Period:
(relates to event settlement date)

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
to

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
I am deliberately looking back over the past 30 days rather than the past 24 hours – I’d like to think this is because I take a long-term view of my trading and focus on moving averages rather than short-term fluctuations. The truth is I daren’t look at my isolated weekend P&L for fear that it may result in my Christmas having an outlook of pessimism similar to that of a battery turkey.



The Australian wallet returned just over a ton of profit thanks to IJP prevailing down under, returning some solace off a £17 stake at just a couple of points shy of 9-1 but that has done little to lift my spirits during this supposed time of good will to all men.
I have, however, got some bets on for the yuletide period, and I want to carry on testing my hypothesis that you see a higher than average number of red cards in mid-week televised football matches played under poor weather conditions featuring teams at opposite ends of the skill spectrum or with something significant to play for.  My optimism for profit has been boosted by this schedule of televised fixtures:

Mon 19
Crystal Palace v Birmingham (7.45pm)

7.30pm    
Championship
Tue 20
Blackburn v Bolton (8.00pm)

7.30pm
Premier League
Wed 21
Wigan v Liverpool (8.00pm)

7.30pm
Premier League
Thu 22
Tottenham v Chelsea (8.00pm)

7.30pm
Premier League


The odds offered against a sending off in those matches are all between 3/1 and 5/1, and as such, I will be looking closely at tonight’s match.  Crystal Palace and Birmingham have just one red card between them so far this season and are separated by just one place and one point in the league so far this season.   Birmingham’s sole sending off came, however, in a match away to Cardiff, who are above them in the Championship and will have tested their defence enough to draw Curtis Davies into a last-man challenge that denied Kenny Miller a goalscoring opportunity [despite replays proving the decision made by referee Anthony Taylor to be incorrect]. 

http://www.birminghammail.net/birmingham-sport/birmingham-city-fc/birmingham-city-fc-news/2011/12/05/birmingham-city-boss-blames-curtis-davies-sending-off-for-defeat-97319-29894224/ 

Whether or not Crystal Palace’s attack will cause the same problems is a moot point.  A swift glance at the prowess of these teams in front of goal does not reveal a potent strike rate for either side and a red card is currently trading at fairly priced 9/2 on Betfair. 
http://www.football-league.co.uk/page/ClubShooting/0,,10794~20117,00.html

Might leave this one alone and wait for some more clear indicators in the other mid-week fixtures.  The biggest danger after a weekend of losses like I’ve just had is to dive straight back in... isn’t it?!

Finally, thanks to radio 5 Live, who had me on their racing show last week - it was an honour to be on the airwaves amongst such exalted company as Cornelius Lysaght and Mick Fitzgerald with Mark Pougatch.  Thanks also to Chris Graham and the www.sportingbet.com podcast boys for the plug - looking forward to more media appearances in the new year!

For those that didn't catch me on the Denman show - here's the audio http://tvider.com/view/73280 

Sunday, 31 July 2011

How involved in the markets are you?


 
Chatting to my pal Paolo (@paolobow) about our levels of interest in various betting markets, it became apparent that we require some kind of peer-reviewed, universal scale to reflect punters' activity in, awareness of and liabilities exposed to different kinds of gambling arenas.


We swiftly decided on a crude system, using terminology more commonly associated with aquatic exploration, which I will detail forthwith. Please feel free to add your own suggestions to improve the gauge, as it is in its infancy. We feel though, having had experience developing similar scales for other pastimes with our mutual friend Tim @Westdrop (namely the scoring systems by which we rate Indian Restaurants, and the way in which we are able to easily describe to each other just how "out of it" we are, or were, during a session on the annoes or ales) that we are well poised to get the ball rolling.



Proposed Scale for Describing Involvement in a Market:

1. Dipping
2. Floating
3. Immersed
4. Submerged
5. Deep
(6. Drowning)

Examples of each would include:

Level 1. "I'm just dipping my toe in the Eurovision Market, 0.5pt on Jedward, but I obviously won't watch the event"

Level 2. "I've been floating around this Market for a while.. I find the way that SPOTY2011 incorporates both sporting and socio-political events really allows me to pit my wits against the layers"

Level 3. "I'm immersed in the antepost Market for the forthcoming Ebor Handicap, having followed Segal's advice on Tominator on a previous occasion and also having a lot of time for Lost in the Moment, the Godolphin colt who's given me a couple of TBP wins in the past. Looking."

Level 4. "Oh I am submerged in this Market.. I layed the draw at the start of the test match with liabilities of over £500 and have gradually, through some careful Market positioning and a hell of a lot of luck, got myself in a green, green, green position, having had about 8 or 9 bets matched over the weekend!"

Level 5. "£200 on Denman. On the nose. Deep."

Level 6. I don't really want to talk about this. This is that feeling when you know you should have layed off a monster bet on Roger Federer as he drops to 1.04 with two match points, but you get way too greedy, leave it alone and end up feeling salt-water fill up your lungs as Fed inexplicably throws it away.

So... What do you think?

DP