Aintree Day 3 - The Grand National

Maybe it was the stench of tanning products?  Liverpudlian ladies, liver chestnut in colour swigging neat vodkas providing distraction from the track and clouding my mind.  Something certainly has to be blamed for my laying of Dynaste, opposing of Sprinter Sacre and losing of £220 on festival Friday.   At Fishers Cross and My Tent or Yours provided some respite, returning about about a ton plus some acca money but that just serves as evidence for the size of those other losses.  Sprinter Sacre was simply stunning over that longer trip yesterday and really has nothing but a Gold Cup or a King George to win now. I think he could do it!

 

 

Liverpool, however, is the perfect place to revive and refresh your punting passions.  Last night the city centre was teeming with life and laughter, and this morning the aftermath of alcoholic effects is being tempered perfectly by the aroma currently emanating from our hosts' kitchen.  A full English breakfast is on the way, and so is Grand National Saturday.

 

Being a three day meeting, the cards at Aintree are jam-packed with quality.  Hearty handicaps follow grade 1 contests, equine behemoths every way you turn and today is no different.  Overturn goes up against Alderwood in the Maghull Novices' Chase; the 3-mile Liverpool hurdle sees Grands Crus, another David Pipe trained grey bidding to prove his doubters wrong and demonstrate that a return to hurdling is just the tonic required to get back to winning ways; and in the Grand National, my money is carried by the same horse who carries my dreams - Soll - who was bred by my friend's father, sired by Denman's father Presenting, and could be the mother of all bets I have ever placed.  I got on at nearly 300/1 months ago.  When the weights and entries were being discussed he was way down the list, but today he is actually competing in the greatest race on turf.

I don't know why this picture is blurry, but I'm hoping my eyes will be wet with blurry tears when Soll romps home later

1.45 Mersey Novices' Hurdle

It's between Up and Go for Donald McCain and Dodging Bullets for Paul Nicholls at the top of the betting market in this 8 horse race.  Up and Go hasn't won on going faster than soft and his price is a bit on the skinny side, but looks to be a banker to get us started.

2.15 Maghull Novices' Chase

Overturn was run ragged by Simonsig over the undulations of Cheltenham and followed him home an Arkle Chase fourth, some 30 lengths behind.  With that in mind, Alderwood is tempting so I'm going to reverse forecast the two but with a leaning towards Overturn, who is a real favourite of mine.

2.50 Liverpool Hurdle

Solwhit is a class act, and Alan King's Smad Place will likely feature in the places.  Holywell is another festival winner to be feared in this exciting renewal, although the race is marred slightly by the absence of the mighty Big Buck's.  In the same red and white colours of the Stewart Family, I'm going to back Celestial Halo to go one better than at Cheltenham, and I'm also going to get Grands Crus on side at a tempting price.

The Grand National

I'm running out of time here and the champagne cork has just been popped by our hospitable friend Cairnsey, so all's left to say is come on Soll.  I have made some other selections, influenced by Pricewise, AP McCoy's choice of horse and by the huge price about Oscar Time, runner up in 2011's race. 

Here we go again...

 

 

Aintree Day 2 - Ladies' Day

A profitable day was enjoyed yesterday, £430 fuelling my journey via rail up to Liverpool, where a particularly tasty curry was enjoyed at Albert Dock eatery East Z East.  Not sure what that Z is all about but the food and service were excellent and the leftovers have been enjoyed for a raceday breakfast this morning.



Booze

  



Views

The views from our city pad afford us sights of the north docks, across the vast body of the River Mersey towards the Wirral.  A pleasant vista.  But that is nothing compared to the treat in store for my ever-so-slightly-smaller-than-average eyes later this afternoon.  Sprinter Sacre is out and about today and anyone who has the opportunity to clap their mince pies upon this cocky animal should savour and relish the chance.  Having said that, stepping up in trip over fences to 2m 4f in the Grade 1 Melling Chase, and priced at 1/3  versus game contenders Cue Card, Flemenstar and perhaps Finian’s Rainbow (if he’s back to 100%), he will have to have his not inconsiderable wits about him.  What a delight this will be for national hunt racing fans all over the land this afternoon.
 

We are intending to get to the track nice and early, and hopefully walk the course, so I’ve just taken a few snapshots of my bets for today to illustrate some thoughts.  Have a good one and, ladies of Liverpool, watch out – the Palphabet pals are in town :-/
 

2.00 – Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle

Going to get back onside with MTOY after his failure at Cheltenham.  Small field and much lesser company means he is a short but fair odds-on price.  Added to an acca.

 

2.30 – Grade 2 Novices’ Chase

Laying Dynaste and backing Pricewise tip Sea of Thunder.  Seems slightly incongruous with my comments about My Tent or Yours above, since Dynaste is 2/1 against, but he was rather unimpressive in March and so I'll take him on.

 

3.05 – Grade 1 Melling Chase

Flemenstar, if he is on point, is capable of a big run over this trip, and is a BIG price to get the better of Sprinter Sacre.  I once heard Dan Skelton say that he thought Flemenstar was undoubtedly a 2-mile horse, but he has been shown on the other side of the Irish Sea to stay the longer trip and I know Tom Segal was sweet on him as a potential Cheltenham Gold Cup prospect.  Conversely, Sprinter Sacre IS a proven 2-mile horse and is stepping into the unknown here.  When Frankel stepped up to 1m 2f, I was in no way skeptical that he would be as dominant at 10 furlongs as he was over 7 furlongs or a mile.  I stuck hefty wagers down at short prices without a second thought.  There is a hint of doubt with Sprinter Sacre though, so whilst I've added him to my Lucky 15, I'm laying him in the outright market.  This race has got us all thinking, but it's certainly got us all drooling too.

3.40 – The Topham Handicap Chase

Backed four in this one.  Segal tipped two in the paper this morning at big prices - Last Time D'Albain, ridden by a winner from yesterday - Bryan Cooper (who partnered First Lieutenant to victory in the Betfred Bowl); and Mister First, tipped at 50/1!  Spoylesports would only let me have £1.50 each way on that, but the lovely layers at Bet365 allowed me to have my full regular point on - top bookie!  Backed Palphabet favourite Chance du Roy and also got Tartak on side.

 
4.15 – Sefton Novices’ Hurdle

I love Rebecca Curtis.  There, I've said it.  On At Fishers Cross with a Rod Laver on Master of the Sea.

4.50 – Listed Handicap Hurdle

You know that scene in Happy Gilmore?  "Mista Mista"?  It's hilarious - check it out.  In honour of that, and AP McCoy's ability to get the best out of a weight-carrying nag, I'm backing Get Me Out of Here to give us a quick JP / AP double. 

Impressed with Harry Derham's ride on board Salubrious when winning the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham, I'm back on today in the acca above.  Raised from 141 to 149, He's carrying 11-3 this afternoon but Harry takes off a handy 5 via his claim as a conditional jockey.

My mate Wardrop was sitting next to me talking up former Champion Hurdler Punjabi too, so whilst I was on Betfair, I gobbled up the 46s available to backers, just to spite him - hilarious scenes ensued, as he was left with a paltry 44.  Many fellow exchange users will surely appreciate the banter?!

5.25 – Bumper

No selection yet - will place a bet trackside, staking accordingly depending on how heavy my pockets are feeling later this afternoon.

 

Aintree Day 1

To watch the BBC’s News at Ten this evening, you would be forgiven for assuming that a real and formal threat from nuclear-weapon wielding North Korea towards the United States of America was something to be concerned about as we head into the downhill half of our weeks.

 You might be wondering if you fit snugly into one of the seven new classes defined by sociologists at the beeb: “Oooh am I an emerging servicer or an established technical elitist?”

It's easy when you lie on the survey

 
Whatever. Here comes the sport. Oh, some non-English sides are competing for the major honours in European club football.  Whoopee.  Does it not seem strange to you that, with three days of premium National Hunt Racing ahead of us, all the major news channels are focusing on the banal and benign?

 
Sprinter Sacre is stepping up in trip; Flemenstar is back and out to prove the Casey camp aren’t all as mad as a box of frogs; Overturn has a disappointing Cheltenham from which to bounce back; Silviniaco Conti, nose still wet from that nasty festival fall, needs to dust himself down and rekindle the fiery confidence that has seen him so impressively answer the questions posed by large, bristly fences up and down the country; and Palphabet favourite Soll, having made mincemeat of the Sandown railway fences a few weeks ago, has this evening made the cut in the greatest steeplechase the world has ever known – the John Smith’s Grand National.


I’m sure if Kim Jong Un knew all of these varied threads were being woven into the great colourful tapestry of jumps racing as he spoke (undoubtedly in a rather menacing fashion, on the subject of world domination), he would pause for a moment, pick up the phone to Dennis Rodman and meet in the most mutually convenient of locations tomorrow afternoon: Aintree.

 

Isn't it easy to picture this very scene in a luxury trackside box at a Merseyside racecourse?

I, for one, would look forward to meeting him there, going for a curry and preparing for Ladies’ Day, followed by a night out in Liverpool, Grand National Saturday, and then another night out in Liverpool.  It's the home of The Beatles, KJU, all you need is love.. and a couple of decent-priced winners.
 

Now, as Tom Segal says in tomorrow's column (yes, I've bought an ipad with the RP app, very elitist I know): "Aintree always provides a tricky conundrum for punters". Namely: stick or twist. You either stay faithful to the Cheltenham pocket-liners like Sprinter Sacre, Flaxen Flare, The New One, Alderwood and Solwhit or you look for that kind croupier of the turf and hope he's going to deal you a better hand in the north west than he did down in the south west.  Celestial Halo, Overturn, Dodging Bullets, Conti, Countrywide Flame, Captain Conan, all capable of reversing form or improving on a totally different track. Of course there are those nags who we never even saw grace the festival floor to consider too. There's so much to think about I honestly do wonder why the general public care so much about some 17-year-old kid selling an app that seems to provide little more than the info you get when you click "news" on well-known search engine site google.com.  

The RP iPad app - wow, just wow.  Infinitely better than that 17 year old kid's one..

 
Here’s a few picks for Aintree’s Thursday card to hopefully line our collective pockets ahead of the weekend’s action:

2.00 – Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle


Not too sure why Far West isn’t lining up for this £56-grand, 2-mile opener for four year olds.  Nicholls is sending stable companion Irish Saint, thinks the track will suit and the bookies go 3/1, marginally larger odds than Henderson’s Rolling Star, who had the better of the Saint at Cheltenham in January.  It’s stick or twist time guys.  At 31/1, carrying £40 of my festival funds, Flaxen Flare was one of my Cleeve Hill heroes, having been tipped by Segal earlier that day before winning the Fred Winter in notable fashion.  Currently 5.9 on Betfair, I don’t want to be twisting on trainer Gordon Elliott any time soon.  He’s 6 from 19 in the past fortnight and his whole team are flying. 

Flaxon Flare was a real Festival Fillip

 

2.30 – Betfred Bowl Chase
 

Another Grade 1 with a stellar line-up of staying chasers to behold.  Silviniaco Conti is a shade of odds-on at 5/6 to triumph around Aintree, where he romped home by 13 lengths last year, and it would be foolish not to have him in your accumulator or lucky 15 for the day.  First Lieutenant steps back up in trip after being beaten in the Ryanair Chase over 2m 5f and is the preferred alternative under multiple festival-winning jockey Bryan Cooper.

 
3.05 – Aintree Hurdle.. another Grade 1

Zarkandar is given blinkers for this race, which is over a distance 25% longer than the Champion Hurdle in which we last saw him.  He was beaten by Countrywide Flame that day and that is reflected in their prices being 5/1 and 4/1 respectively.  Willie Mullins’s grey Thousand Stars appeals at 9/1 as he is a two-time runner up in this race (in both instances losing out to 11/2 shot Oscar Whisky) but I think I’ll side with Countrywide Flame and pick Raya Star as my big-priced each way outside at around 28/1.

 
3.40 – Fox Hunters’ Chase

Here we go, a juicy handicap with amateur riders to break the monotony of the day’s impeccable line-up of grade 1 superstars.  I always look for “The Dentist” in races like these – Mr Sam Waley-Cohen, who likes Aintree having been runner-up in the 2011 Grand National, and who saddles up on Cottage Oak at around 6/1.   Not a huge price, but has place claims so will put him in an each-way acca of some kind.
 

In the 4.15 – Red Rum Handicap Chase, the 4.50 Grade 1 Novices’ Chase and the 5.25 Handicap Hurdle card-closer, I am going Rebel Rebellion for Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls; Captain Conan who should go better than when fifth at Cheltenham on good-to-soft last month; and Ericht to complete the first-day double for Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.  Will probably perm these up with that Waley-Cohen mount in the Fox Hunters’... in fact, I have!

 

 

With other decent looking cards at Taunton (where Hunt Ball and Aaim to Prosper catch the eye), and Thurles (with Toner D’Oudairies stepping out for red-hot Gordon Elliott under the jockeyship of shunned-by-the-BHA champion Irish jockey Davy Russell) it really is time to prise ones finger off the warheads and hit the nuclear betting button.   Boom!

Wayne - King is good for you

Readers of my recent festival preview will have noticed that Alan King featured throughout, and I was delighted to hear Tom Segal picking out Wayne Hutchinson as one of his favourite jockeys when I finally got around to watching his Morning Line appearance on tape this fine Sunday dawn.

http://www.palphabet.blogspot.com/2012/02/go-with-your-gut.html

At Chepstow yesterday, Hutch provided King with a 5-1 winner in the shape of Oh Crick, who was sporting blinkers for the first time at a track where his trainer had drawn a blank in 45 previous attempts over the past 843 days. I didn't know all this when I placed a 1pt stake on the horse, and this was King's only runner at the Monmouthshire course yesterday, but it gives me a thrill to discover such facts in retrospect.

Elsewhere, Grumeti showed again that when he doesn’t end up on his nose, he wins.  With a rating of 154 and on the up, Grumeti, under Choc Thornton, went off clear favourite and duly dispatched challengers in the Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle over 2m.  Paul Nicholls’s Dodging Bullets provided the only real opposition inside the home straight but Grumeti was cruising and proved the 1.51 Betfair SP correct.

King currently boasts a 51% RTF figure, meaning that across the past fortnight, just over half of his runners have Run to Form (within 5lb of their RP rating) and the newspaper felt fit to highlight his success in Saturday races worth £10k or more with this eye-catching headline:

All in all, I'm delighted with my position on Medermit for the Ryanair, excited about the prospects of West End Rocker (and to a lesser extent Hold on Julio, who I have not backed ante post) and hope King, and Wayne Hutchinson's good fortune continues as the festival draws inexorably closer.

DP

Minsk Mix Up

Oh.. before I forget.. isn't this funny - Minsk has been being talked up as one to watch since switching from long, flat races to jumps, and I had a point on him for the JCB Triumph Hurdle.  Baby Mix disappointed last time out but I thought 23 looked big about the grey gelding, so I backed him ante post yesterday too.  Minsk failed to deliver at Kempton and is now double the odds I got him at, whilst Mix (one-third of a Saturday afternoon Paddy Brennan threesome) has been cut to 7-1.  The favourite is now the aforementioned Alan King trained Grumeti (6-1), who I have not had anything on!

Go With Your Gut

I read recently that Tom Segal, the legendary prophetic inhabitant of the Racing Post’s Pricewise pages doesn’t like to spend excessive time poring over the form when advising punters where to put their pound.

"X" Marks the Spot - Quickfire Tipping from the Gut

Taking a similar approach, and after a few indicative national hunt trials, I turned to page 24 of Sunday’s ‘paper and quickly marked out my favourite ante-post fancies for the forthcoming few fortnights, as I prepare for back-to-back festival Fridays at Cheltenham and Aintree.  I've then gone through the selections and made some brief notes in an attempt to justify my initial gut feelings. Let me know what you think.

Cheltenham

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Cinders and Ashes (10-1) Donald McCain's novice hurdler got off to a winning start to his career on the NH flat scene before coming 5th in last year's festival Bumper.  Reversed the form with an impressive nine-length victory over Nicky Henderson's Keys at Aintree before Christmas and whilst Steps to Freedom's stats of 1F1-0111 look ominous, I'm comfortable with the fact that Cinders jumped off the page at me.

Arkle – Sprinter Sacre (6-4) This horse is in my head because Mark "Couch" Winstanley tipped him up in the RP a few weeks back for a characteristically low-key 10pt stake at a much bigger priced.  SS has impressed ever since.

Champion Hurdle – Hurricane Fly (4-5) / Binocular (8-1) exacta - Like many, I have the hots for H-Fly, who looks a beauty and has beaten all who stand in his way in this contest that would give "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" a run for its money with regards to lead actor & supporting cast.  A son of Montjeu, Fly's figures of 1111-11 make this look like a foregone conclusion but I like the value play of adding the inconsistent 2010 Champion Hurdler Binocular to a [reverse]exacta following his impromptu win at the weekend.

Mares’ Hurdle – Quevega (8-11) She's the female version of Big Buck's - banker.  Having said that, I will place an unmatched bet and let it ride on the exchange just in case Voler La Vedette is around the 28-1 mark leading by a few lengths going over the last.  Unaccompanied is heading straight to Aintree and gives this mare affair the miss.

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle & Albert Bartlett  – Fingal Bay (9-2 and 7-1 respectively) The unbeaten Fingal looks a good prospect for the future and I backed him a few months ago for both these races following success in November at Cheltenham.  I still think these prices are fair although the shorter price for the Neptune suggests that's where trainer Philip Hobbs is aiming him so I'm glad I got him at 6.4 on Betfair.

RSA Chase – Grands Crus (9-4) / Invictus (12-1) exacta - Assuming Crus doesn't line up on Friday for the Gold Cup, you have to fancy last year's World Hurdle runner-up to continue the flawless example of jumping showed on Boxing Day at Kempton Park.  Pair up the short price about Grands Crus with in-form Alan King's Invictus, who was immediately cut for this race from 33-1 and 50-1 in places to as short as 6-1 now but still available at 12s.

Queen Mother Champion Chase – Sizing Europe (11-10) I had Henry de Bromhead's defending champion at 9-1 last year and like Hurricane Fly & Big Buck's, he looks likely to regain his crown this year.  Cost Sportingbet a fortune when winning the Tingle Creek in December, forcing the bookmaker to return all losing bets (I got my £50 back on Wishfull Thinking and stuck it all on Kauto Star for the King George, which was enjoyable).  He has the hoodoo over most of his rivals but I might go for a value bet on Somersby or add him to a forecast with Sizing.

Ryanair – Medermit (9-1) à Let’s not forget, as well as Invictus, Alan King also had wins this weekend with Lovcen and Balder Succes, who can be backed at 30 on Betfair for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.  Everywhere I look I seem to see King's name, so I was ecstatic to be awoken by the news this morning, just hours after I put it on Twitter, that Tom Segal also picked Medermit as his Ryanair ante-post selection.  A case of Pricewise following Palphabet perhaps?? Cue price crash.  His performance at Ascot this weekend was gallant, recovering well from a mistake he ran Riverside Theatre all the way to the line, and I've got cold feet about backing Jimmy Nesbitt's headline grabber at reactionary prices.  Rubi Light has been hacking up on Irish turf that wouldn't look out of place on a 1970s second-division football pitch, and a lesser horse would have crashed out after landing on top of a Gowran Park fence on  Saturday.  There's no doubt Rubi has plenty in the tank, but with a dry, sunny March in store, I think he'll end up as a BF in the Ryanair at Cheltenham.

Will Minsk "dig" deep for the JCB Trophy?

Triumph Hurdle – Minsk (7-1)  Balder Succes (14-1 for this race) is probably 30 for the Novices’ as King needs to decide whether to run him over longer distance against more experienced company, including stablemate Grumeti (10-1 here).  I had Grandouet for the JCB Triumph last year after a decent couple of warm-up experiences, and was left disappointed but I remember reading a few people, including Segal, saying Minsk was one to follow for the season.

World Hurdle – Big Buck’s (8-13) I don't need to say anything about Buck's.  Even if he picks up the Ditcheat cough, he'll be absolutely fine come St Patrick's Thursday.

Already Advised

Gold Cup – Kauto Star (7-2) recommended at 4-1 - Long Run did nothing [apart from win] to convince me to betray my heart and believe!  The bookies seemed quick to cut a bit of their liability on Kauto too

National Hunt Challenge Cup – Soll (8-1) recommended at 12-1 - R Walsh & WP Mullins are both bullish about this 7 year-old chestnut gelding, who provided Willie with the fastest ton of seasonal winners in Ireland when chasing over 2m4f at Down Royal earlier this month.  I've had 2pts e/w at 12s, a bit more at 9s and would like to think that Soll, sired by Presenting, will bring home this 4-mile cup for half-brother and recent retiree Denman

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/down-royal-soll-brings-up-mullins-milestone-in-style/982938/

Aintree

Grand National – West End Rocker (20-1 on Ladbrokes and Betfair) - When the weights were announced for the National, I looked down the list and straight away fancied West End Rocker.  As already mentioned, I have subsequently had Alan King's name ringing around my ears.  WER didn't just win the trial over the Grand National fences in December, he absolutely destroyed Niche Market and the rest of the field in the Becher Handicap Chase with Wayne Hutchinson on board.  Granted, the ground was heavy, but I like the price and wonder if Robert Thornton might take him round in April, especially since King's only other entry, Hold on Julio, won under Hutch from chasing veteran Neptune Collonges at Sandown during Choc's injury-induced absence.

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-weights.php

Well, that certainly took longer to write than it did to go through the markets putting "Xs" next to names of nags! This time in three weeks, we'll know whether or not some of these instinctive picks have prevailed. Looking forward...