Class is Permanent, but Form can bring home the Fillips

For the past couple of weeks, I've had the honour of writing a review blog for the website of quality magazine Golf Monthly.  This piece appears on there via this link, and my first two blogs can be found here and here...

The old sporting adage often tells us thus: “form is temporary, class is permanent”.  You only have to look at events at the Crucible Theatre these past couple of weeks to know that is a fair assessment of the powers truly classy individuals hold over their rivals in the quest for silverware and cash in their particular field.   

The nearest Ronnie O’Sullivan has come to pink balls in the last twelve months has been whilst working on a pig farm, and yet he rocks up in the biggest snooker tournament on earth and makes porkmeat of opposition who, in their own right, are amongst the pantheon of potting, the best on the baize.

In golf betting, FiTCiP, if you’ll permit me the acronymisation, is regularly borne out too, with the victory of a huge outsider like Derek “who?!” Ernst at Quail Hollow this weekend extremely unlikely to be repeated when the runners and riders line up at TPC Sawgrass for the Players Championship on Thursday.   Ernst was available at around 300/1 with the bookies pre-event and was rated an eye-watering 999/1 shot by the layers on the Betfair exchange, according to this excellent debrief of last week’s action from Steve Rawlings.   Putting it another way (and that’s putting, not PUTTing): the percentage chance Derek Ernst had of winning the Wells Fargo Championship was somewhere between 0.33 and 0.10 percent.  Needless to say he wasn’t in my portfolio:

Laying Lefty was the sole shrewd weekend move

Many think, quite rightly, that golf is a difficult sport to predict, and therefore to make money betting on, but the other two tournaments last weekend (in China and Indonesia) provided big glimmers of hope, and lead me to question the very fabric of the FiTCiP concept.  Obviously class is permanent, and it’s no surprise that golf has been dominated in various modern eras by class: Nicklaus, Palmer, Player, Watson, Woods, to name a few.  

But let’s not be so harsh on Father Form here.  Look at those names closely and form, specifically course/region form, is perhaps more ubiquitous than the Class Camp would have us believe.  Jack Nicklaus dominated at Augusta (six Masters titles); Watson prevailed on UK soil at the Open (five Claret Jugs); Woods appears four times in the top five of this list of golfers who “own” certain PGA Tour Events – nobody else has won more than one event as many times as Tiger (bagged six tour titles more than five times each; 15 titles in his native state of Florida). 

Aussie Greg Rumford took the Volvo China Open, making him a back-to-back winner on far east tracks having won the Ballatine’s in South Korea the week before.   Meanwhile Victor Dubuisson, top-10 in India’s Avantha Masters, top-five in Malaysia and identified in BetSWOT’s excellent China Open analysis went one better than last year’s fourth-place finish at Binhai Lake Golf Club, finishing third with two bogey-free closing rounds and returned some top 10 money.   

The Racing Post’s golf betting oracle, Steve Palmer, called Bernd Wiesberger, who I backed with £50 e/w at 10/1 “the bet of the week”.  Bernd bullied the field at the 2012 Ballantine’s, winning by five strokes, and took the Indonesian Masters in a Royale Jakarta Golf Club playoff against Ernie Els to gain his second Asian title.

Bernd baby, Bernd

Form may be temporary, but therefore it can be preciously profitable.  Consider that this weekend at Sawgrass, a ball-strikers’ paradise where past winners have built up considerable course knowledge before capturing the unofficial fifth major.  GM's Fergus Bisset highlighted as much in last year’s preview.  I like the look of Masters Champ Adam Scott at 18/1 with Paddy Power paying 6 places e/w (Stan James 16/1, 7 places e/w).  Anyone who can stand on the 17th tee, looking across at ET's head, and keep his head having been there before, needs to be respected and could well bring back the booty.

 

Booty: Phone Home

 

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Since I started shopping around a bit more for the best prices, which aren't always  found on the Betfair exchange, my Palphabet portfolios have become so varied I've felt the need to keep notes on my iPhone.  I've mentioned before that using http://www.oddschecker.com is vital to building a balanced book for the weekend's betting enjoyment, and with the bookmakers all competing for your custom, there are some tempting offers out there that have to be considered.  This week, however, all of my wagers have been placed on the exchange, with the exception of the Adam Scott bet.  What you lose on the outright part of the stake (Betfair layers have him at 21/1 compared to Power's 18/1) you make back on the fact they're giving you an extra place at a quarter the odds, i.e. 9/2... the same price you can get on Betfair for a top 5 finish.

 

 

Betting on Golf to Compile a Palphabet Portfolio

Ah the weekend.  Time to leave the responsibilities of selling medical device products behind me and embark upon a bumper three-day break where I can fully focus on the markets.. Particularly since my wife-to-be, Mrs Palphabet, is away on her hen-do, most probably baking cakes and singing hymns with absolutely no male-strippers in sight.

I want to talk about golf. 

I have never broken a three-figure score.  My dad, my younger brother and my little brother are all decent players, but over the past month I have won more money gambling on the game than they have.  I am no longer the black sheep of the family.  I am the black bull of white-ball betting.  I am blowing through my ringed nose and brushing at the dust with my hefty hoof, weighed down by wonga. 

The past month's Palphabet P&L

When I compile my weekly golf portfolio, I religiously do two things.  I wouldn’t say that I am necessarily religious, but when it comes to golf, I’ve found myself becoming more spiritual as the competitions roll on and the prophet of profit becomes more apparent.

Firstly, on a Tuesday, I download and listen (at least once) to the William Hill Golf Podcast, which is expertly put together by Lee Phelps ( @leephelps ), hosted by Dave Kelner ( @dkelner ) and superbly supported by Mike Grenham ( @mgrenham ).  I have to listen to it a couple of times because I normally plug in the Dr Dre earphones when I bed down, and I usually fall asleep to the laid-back groove of the theme tune, not because the lads are all northern and their easy accents soothe me into a slumber.  You can find the podcast here.

Next, I bound eagerly into my local ‘paper shop and pick up Wednesday’s RP, where Steve Palmer’s piece(s) provide unmissable insight into the US and European tour competitions.  Occasionally I miss the copy in the newsagents and have to beg my local Ladbrokes or JenningsBet to let me have the back pages at the end of the day.  I think they find me slightly odd.  This article shows why I am anything but.. although maybe makes SP look a bit weird!

I see these activities as a ritualistic must.  The optional extras come by way of my mate Tom Clarke’s excellent Golf Monthly column, which can be found here, and through discussion with my pal @paolobow, who is a keen follower of Mr. Jeremy Chapman ( @jeremychapman3 ), an authority on the game from back in the day, who still comes up with the goods.

Armed with all of this information, it’s time to make my selections.  When the stars collide and more than one of the above pick the same player, I get rather excited.  It’s time to go in big.  Otherwise I basically follow Palmer’s selections, although maybe not quite as heavily as he advises large stakes on short-priced market leaders, and then supplement with a couple of my favourite golfers.   For courses that demand accuracy off the tee, I like Westwood and Garcia.  When the par-fives are plentiful and power is a prerequisite, but precision is preferred I might go for Nicolas Colsaerts or Louis Oosthuizen.  For wide fairways that sympathise with flamboyancy and inconsistency, I like Alviro Quiros and Rafael Cabrera-Bello, who often start at big prices and are very tradeable if they get off to a good start, better still if they make the cut.  Likewise, I often back John Daly at huge three-figure prices and hope he puts together a good round on the Thursday.   Seung-Yul Noh is a genuine favourite of mine.. I tend to back him every week he gets involved, regardless of the track, which probably isn't particularly wise.  He’ll bring home the bacon soon though, I’m sure.

Following your favourite golfers on Twitter can really help you communicate with the game.. as this snapshot of Seung-Yul Noh's timeline demonstrates so perfectly.

 

As well as the characters involved, the statistics available are great too.  Ball-striking is one I really enjoy looking at.  'What golfer can’t strike a ball well?' I used to ask.  Well, this is actually a hybrid stat combining figures for driving distance, driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation (getting on the putting surface with two putts to make par) and is a gem for making your choices.  In fact, think of stats as your punting caddy, whispering words of wisdom in your ear, encouraging you to attack that tough pin position.

 At Kiawah Island for this year’s PGA, for instance, distance was very important.  With 7,800 yards to cover, so was scrambling – saving par when you miss finding the green-in-regulation.  Rory McIlroy looked huge at 19-1 given that these statistical strengths are key features of his rock-solid game.  Tipped up by Steve Palmer, Dave Kelner, Mike Grenham and Jeremy Chapman, what more could a punter ask for?  I expected to turn to my horoscope and read "Get on R-Mac, you crazy half-man half-beast Sagittarian.. what other pointers do you need??!" 

He won by eight shots, destroying the field at the tough Pete Dye designed golf course. 

Ror' on the Shore returned more than layers bargained for

In-play golf is great for gambling too, as the market often overreacts and regards a lead going into the final round as a reason to send the odds nosediving towards odds-on.  Laying Adam Scott at the start of the final round of this year’s Open, and going in again throughout his excellent front-nine, meant that (although not winning much when you include the money on top-5 finishes), I came away from the heavy betting weekend unscathed.  Backers were still supporting him at 1.05 (1-20) on Betfair, trying to take advantage of 5% returns unavailable with high-street banks, but finding themselves stuck between their very own Northern Rock and a hard place (if they backed each-way).   It seems that most golfers wobble when entering the final round of a tournament at the top of the leaderboard, unless their name starts with a 'T' and ends with 'iger'.

How about no, Scott

 

Opposing Jim Furyk at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational at 2.36 won me £71.85, covering 3 points worth of initial investment as he failed to capitalise on a strong position.  Similarly, going against Robert Garrigus at the Canadian Open meant I won £3.20 after commission, rather than losing well in excess of a hundred quid.

Of course, the tactic of laying a short-priced leader doesn’t always work out, especially when the players you’re praying will fail are fully-paid up members of the God-squad.  As I said before, I’m not religious, and sometimes that counts against me.  Here, I tried to lay the hell (sorry Zach) out of Johnson, and credit to the lad he did his best to help me in the exciting playoff with Troy Matteson, finding the water to the left side of the hole before eventually winning with a wonderful 190 yard 6-iron bunker shot that cost me over £400.

ZJ and Gay caused a bad day and put pay to a profitable play

 

As well as following the Twitter handles I've already plugged, I recommend using the Golf Channel's website and app to stay abreast of proceedings and using www.oddschecker.com to get the best prices, as they can vary enormously between firms and exchanges, especially when backing each-way.  Finally, find a few like-minded golf-betting buddies with whom you can sing the various tunes that Sky Sports use to punctuate their golf coverage - great "beds", as I believe they're called in the broadcasting game.

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Tonight, as I type, Roberto Castro has just aced the 14th, Sergio Garcia and Vijay Singh are right in contention at The Barclays, held at Bethpage State Park in New York, and Nick Watney looks to be the lay of the weekend.  Tiger is battling through pain, looking ominously placed and smiling with the aforementioned bible-basher Johnson, whom he used to (allegedly) torment with pornography when they roomed together on tour.

All this enjoyment from a game that Happy Gilmore once described as requiring “goofy pants and a fat arse”.  I enjoy playing and watching golf, but I love betting on it.