Masters Round 4 Thoughts...

Just got in situ with a pint of green dragon in the New Rose in Islington, from where I'm penning this unplanned blog.. As well as my copy of the RP, I have collected sport sections from the Sunday times, telegraph and the observer and I'm looking for masters value.. Mickelson tees off at 7.40 and in the last 20 masters, the winner has come from the final pairing 18 times.. But can he repeat the heroics of yesterday (30 on the back nine is simply enough to make you puke) ? Hanson still beat him with a 65, King Louis is right there, and the group on -4 could prove a threat too (Harrington, Mahan and Westwood especially) .. At 21-1 i'm gonna have a go on westwood and hope he can repeat or better his 67 from day 1, which may well require him robbing Lefty of his powers on the green and prowess in and around them. I may well lay Phil Mick too as I like Oosthuizen and think the 3 time champion is a bit short. I'll level with you, I'm hugely exposed and seeking a fillip .. I'm on segal's tip at fairyhouse but I just lost about 12pts on the United QPR game and just don't fancy big Phil to get a fourth masters to his name.

Who Will Rain Supreme in Testing Augusta Conditions?

Last year, Luke Donald prepared for the Masters by winning the par-3 tournament the day before the main event got underway.  This year, he eschewed the opportunity to defend that title, reasoning that the greens on the shorter course just don’t afford the opportunity to familiarise oneself with the famously undulating and idiosyncratic greens on the championship course.

Padraig Harrington took the warm-up trophy home yesterday, but play was abandoned after a torrential downpour soaked Augusta, GA. The weather forecast tells a story that’s as difficult to read as one of those glass-like putting surfaces:

All of a sudden, the conditions come into play in a significant way.  It’s got me slightly worried about my bets for the 2012 Masters Champion:

Is the coveted Green Jacket waterproof?

Luke Donald 14-1 4pts e/w with Ladbrokes  – win portion of bet refunded if he finishes runner-up to Tiger Woods.  I actually placed this bet in a high-street shop, something I rarely do as the punters normally scare me more than betting with "real" money.  I had a pleasant exchange with the clerk behind the protective glass and had no problem getting my bet on (despite reading about bookies refusing to take certain bets in Tipster Form's recent hall of shame http://tipsterform.com/boylesports-hall-of-shame/ )

Luke Donald 14-1 3pts e/w with Paddy Power – win money back if Tiger triumphs and paying out place money on 1-2-3-4-5-6.

Worth pointing out that those two offers are exceptionally attractive - kudos to the respective firms' marketing departments.

On Betfair:

To win – Tiger Woods at 6.4 3pts; Justin Rose at 36.07 2pts; Fred Couples at 240.88 ½ a point

Top 5 – Tiger Woods at 2.24 1pt; Justin Rose at 8 ½ a point; Fred Couples at 28 ½ a point

I'm hoping the long weekend will give me an opportunity to do a Cheltenham-esque blog diary (despite not being at the event!) and allow me to expand on why I have made the above selections.  I think most of them are pretty self-explanatory and I've been encouraged by Jeremy Chapman in the RP and the William Hill podders Mike Grenham and Dave Kelner, who all seem bullish about Luuuuuuke.  Steve Palmer's choices are all 35-1 and bigger, and he fancies one of last year's T2 Australian contenders in the shape of Jason Day, who will be worth keeping an eye on.

I also layed the draw in the Sri Lanka vs England 2^nd test with a 4pt stake at 4.3 on Betfair, giving a liability of £330.  Sri Lanka’s under-par first innings total should be surpassed by England today and hopefully the irregular bounce on this pitch will mean we can take a few wickets and win.  England are currently trading at 1.5 and I will be hoping to lay a decent amount of them at around 1.3 to eliminate some of that exposure....which will free up funds to get stuck into rounds 3 and 4 of the golf!

Tied Up in Knotts Over Hunt Ball

Before I begin, Chance du Roy runs in the 4.25 at Haydock today – I’m on 1pt e/w at 4-1.

Now, If you haven’t already seen Matt Chapman’s interview with Anthony Knott on At The Races, I implore you to view it:

Knott: farmer, one-time winning jockey, and now an owner who backs his own horse Hunt Ball with rhetoric and roubles alike, is everything we love about racing here at Palphabet.  His boundless enthusiasm for the sport has seen him recently jump on board Hunt Ball after victory at Wincanton and he famously celebrated his only win as a rider by punching the air and gesticulating to onlookers.  This is all well and good, only Anthony chose to do it with a furlong and a half left to travel on Wise Men Say, with other horses just a length or two away and whilst adopting one of the most unconventional horse riding techniques I have ever seen...Well, it had taken him 28 years to get a winner.  Again, I implore you to watch this race (fast-forward to 4:00 into THIS clip and then watch Nick Luck try to make sense of it all in the post-race interview on RUK) - hilarious!

Going back to that ATR interview, Chapman failed in his attempts to coax out of Knott the race into which Hunt Ball will next be entered.  Seeing as I’m attending Ladies’ Day and the Grand National Saturday at Aintree in a few weekends time, I certainly hope we see him in the flesh there, so that I can follow Knott and “lump on” again:

I'm pleased to say I was on Hunt Ball on Day 1 of the Festival

 
As I type, sponsor’s spokesman Mark Pearson is on talkSPORT coyly mutering about HB’s chances in the Aintree Betfred Bowl - they haven't chalked up a market for it yet - whilst  www.oddschecker.com shows he is as short as 20-1 for next year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.  The handicapper has raised him over 70lbs, more than five stone since he started his winning spree and he continues to deliver.. only time will tell how long this can go on!

***

Eschewing a good think, and instead going with my gut again, I’ve put together my nominees for the Palphabet Alpha Moments of the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.   Please post your answers or alternatives in the comments box below - I did try to embed a proper poll, but I couldn't work out how to do it :-(

Ride of the Festival

1.     Barry Geraghty on Riverside Theatre – Ryanair Chase

2.     Ruby Walsh on Big Buck’s – Ladbrokes World Hurdle

3.     AP McCoy on Synchronised – Betfred Gold Cup

Shocker / Grimace of the Festival

1.     Cotton Mill’s refusal to jump the second-last Neptune hurdle

2.     The Cross Country Course Deaths

3.     The final-fence debacle in the Champion Chase

Greg Wood's Blog is worth a read on some of these matters - it wasn't a bad week so don't wish to overplay the dramas...

Man / Gelding of the Festival

1.     Nicky Henderson

2.     Barry Geraghty

3.     Synchronised

Woman / Mare / Filly of the Festival

1.     Quevega

2.     Alice Plunkett

3.     Eve McCoy (after telling her dad to "pull his finger out")

Moment of the Festival

1.     Anthony Knott’s celebration – “Bugger the cows!”

2.     Spontaneous applause for a champion – Kauto Star being pulled up in the Gold Cup

3.     Sprinter Sacre’s emergence as the most exciting chaser in racing

4.     Big Buck’s

Cheltenham 2012 - Day 4

The dust has settled, the souvenir festival magazines have been published, the BBC has lost the rights to cover major horse races, and the time is right to have a glance through the legs of the fading hangover horse, as last week is pulled up to a spontaneous and heart-felt round of applause.

Ruby Walsh & Kauto Star prepare for battle

Having laid Long Run and followed Tom Segal in on Synchronised, I was never overly concerned about the winner of the Gold Cup on Friday as I had pretty much all eventualities covered (the fact that Nicky Henderson’s stable boy didn’t add the favourite in the 3.20 to his acca spoke volumes and I was happy to oppose The Dentist’s horse at 2-1).  I just wanted Kauto Star to come back unscathed.

Yes, having placed a 4pt wager at around 6-1, I would have preferred him to have gone all the way and cross the post ahead of his rivals, but the second it was realised that he was being led away from the track there was a wave of distinct emotion.  First, momentary deflation could be felt amongst the throngs of onlookers packed inside the enclosures.  This gave way to a palpable sense of relief (accompanied by the impromptu clapping) before finally, I think I felt a twinge of pride.  Proud to have been present to see him bowed out by the horseman who knows him best. 

Ruby Walsh demonstrated in two very different rides this week why he is such a lauded jockey – on Big Buck’s, who seemed to be cajoling his rider: “go on Rubes.. prove to me that you really want to win this fourth World Hurdle” – and then on Kauto: “come on Rubes.. I’m not right here fella.. let me bow out with dignity.”

The fact that AP McCoy went on to give Synchronised such a gritty, determined, talented and vein-bulging push to beat The Giant Bolster and Long Run up the hill, felt to me like a fitting tribute to Kauto and to Ruby.  Festival Gods seemed to be saying "If the people’s horse isn’t able to finish the race, let’s give the people another white-faced horse to love." 

Synchronised ain’t as pretty as Kauto, and AP’s ride was a real street brawl to watch, but it showed heart, and too many heads had backed Long Run for my liking.  Emotion and devotion won the Gold Cup on Friday in many ways.

Here’s how I finished the week from a gambling point of view. Relatively satisfied with the final figures, particularly after the run of losing bets on what I’m now dubbing “Black Wednesday,” there are a few lessons that have been learnt and some “what-ifs” to consider. Overall, though, I went with my gut, and loved every minute of it.



-£33.65 on Horse Racing over the festival.  Noteworthy profits were banked thanks to the 45-1 winner (0.5pt each way) in the Triumph Hurdle on Friday, Countrywide Flame.  I only got a text with the tip on the day so couldn't blog it in advance - sorry!  A close second to this was Sunnyhillboy, Tom Segal's tip in Thursday's amateur riders' handicap chase.  I also had a 10pt bet on Big Buck's to claim that fourth World Hurdle.  At 1.91 on Betfair, I thought this represented both great value and also provided the racing highlight of the week. 

Offers like Paddy Power's "money back special" in the Arkle meant that Sprinter Sacre could be cheered on readily as the bookmaker refunded my losing bet on Al Ferof.  Sprinter Sacre's performance was undoubtedly one of the moments of the week, and whilst many turf accountants' race day deals made me think that backing horses in the ante-post markets is becoming increasingly less attractive, I doubt Mark "The Couch" Winstanley will agree on this occasion.  He advised SS a couple of months ago, recommending a 10pt maximum stake at a monster price! 

Apart from £20 lost in cash on the tote at the track, and including this return of £65, my total P&L for the week came to about -£58 to goodness only knows what stake.  As a wise man once told me: turnover's vanity, profit is sanity. 

At the track: Palphabet pals Westdrop aka The Alpha (left), Norbet (right) and yours truly.

Westdrop tucks into our hosts' famous fry-up on festival Friday morning.

The Racing Post did a magnificent job of capturing the essence of the festival with some breathtaking front-page splashes.  Norbet and I were pleased that the local outlets had stocked up with copies of the 'paper.

As the festival draws to a close, the Palphabet gang contemplate what to do next. Synchronised seems smug at the enormity of his day's work, and back at the guest house, a little kratooie seems sad to have missed out on proceedings.

     



Jaegerbombs are ordered and consumed at the Racing Post party (sadly I couldn't find any of their journos to harrass, so pestered Mark Langdon on Twitter instead) and in the morning the tweed is packed away until next time.

Cheltenham 2012 - Day 3

In Amongst the Action

The Palphabet Pals (without our other pal, Alpha, who arrived later)
Left to Right: Norbet, Me, Simon, Paolo

Apologies in advance for the permeating hangover dribbling out of my supine position in a Cheltenham guest house.  I say guest house, I’m basically staying in someone’s family home, in their attic spare room.  But it’s fine – the family who inhabit this fine tenement, nestled just 15 minutes from Cheltenham’s bustling Montpellier district, are warm and welcoming, reflecting the overall vibe of festival week.

Last night the only downside of an otherwise pleasant evening was the disappointing service in Indian Voojan.  The food was decent but after a memorable meal last year, they certainly let themselves down this time.  Aside from that, the afternoon spent watching races in the familiar surroundings of a pub, with free WiFi allowing online gambling transactions to flow swiftly and without complication, made me realise that time has flown by so quickly since last Cheltenham Festival Thursday (when I was doing much the same as I’ve just described).

P&L was healthily restored by Big Buck’s triumphant defence of his World Hurdle crown.  As if it needed confirmation, he really is an all-time legend of staying hudlers and I just love his lazy attitude to a race – Ruby really had to work hard to get him over the line, but only because Buck’s wanted him to.  Watching the re-run of the exciting contest in a pub later was just as thrilling, and was punctuated with the audio backdrop of the Kaiser Chief’s “Ruby Ruby Ruby Ruby – ahhhhhahhhahahhhh” and the Stones’ “Ruby Tuesday”.  It was Thursday, but fine.

Today I cannot describe how special it will be to see Kauto Star win back the Gold Cup title for a second time.  Surely it will guarantee his status as the greatest race horse of all time.  I’m on antepost at prices ranging from 4-1 to 11-1 (during “the scare”) and will top up at the track.  Burton Port is my alternative selection at 7-1 e/w.

Our hosts are making breakfast for us now so I have no time to go into great detail about the rest of my Friday bets.  In short they are:

1.30: Baby Mix (backed antepost at 22-1 and now 6-1) and either Grumeti or Balder Succes – not sure yet – both 8-1 .. also like Dodging Bullets and 24-1 looks big

2:05 Raya Star 12-1

2:40 Lovcen 17-1 and Fox Appeal 28-1

3:20 as discussed above

4:00 no selection yet

4:40 I’msingingtheblues 25-1

5:15 Tanks for That 14-1 and Kid Cassidy 13-2

Anyone know any other good curry houses in Cheltenham?

Cheltenham 2012 - Day 2

P&L after day 2 hides some very close bets.. honest!

Henderson - what's not to like?

Barry and the Henderson stamp a Big Foot on the Fest

Ignoring Henderson's strong challengers proved a downfall today but I was a whisker away with Get Me Out of Here, who gave £96.17 back to the pot but would have returned over £800 if he'd have managed to get home ahead of Son of Flicka. Elsewhere Soll, my tip of the week fell early on, along with stablemate Allee Garde. Simonsig, who I decided to lay, duly won for Henderson, who also took the RSA with Bobs Worth and the Champion Chase with Finian's Rainbow.  Nicky then had a 40-1 winner in the Fred Winter with Une Artiste, as I was lamenting another well-backed Alan King horse (Vendor).  It got me wondering - why don't I back Nicky Henderson horses very often?... and I think it's due to something buried deep in the realms of my subconscious...

Now, I'm certain that Paul Nicholls doesn’t hold Nicky Henderson in anything but the highest esteem.  I know Henderson, a former Champion Trainer and seemingly top bloke, is well loved in the horse racing fraternity.  He is clearly a fantastic trainer, with more festival wins under his belt than any of his current competitors and boasts a stable full of talented horses, worthy winners over all manner of mileage and obstacle. Yet, on television, I’m sure I've seen PFN appear to blank NH on a couple of occasions – at both Haydock and Kempton Park – after Kauto Star twice inflicted recent defeats on Gold Cup chaser Long Run.   So I have taken a position of harbouring a totally irrational dislike towards the Lambourn trainer, and hardly ever feel compelled to back his horses.

Now, after a day like today, I have two choices – I can either maintain a bitter and unfounded aversion towards contenders from Henderson's yard, or I can adapt to the environment.  I certainly don’t hate the bloke, I just like Nicholls, love Kauto Star and Denman, and found it more than slightly amusing when I saw the Ditcheat man seemingly turn his nose up at Nicky’s advances for a congratulatory handshake. 

I look back after today and wonder if there was anything in it – have any of you seen the footage from Haydock? – Paul Nicholls comes bounding up the gangway towards the winners' enclosure, delighted with Kauto Star’s return to brilliance.  Henderson approaches to say “well done fella” and gets, well, gunned!  

In retrospect, I think to myself “that was a bit out of order Paul!”  I find myself feeling sympathy towards Henderson, his big wet eyes resembling a likeable amphibian, just showing some affection for his victorious competitor on the day.  It’s making me think that tomorrow, when I would usually shy away from backing Henderson's horses, I should consider that he is absolutely flying at this year’s festival, and act accordingly.

Therefore, although I'll stick with Medermit in the Ryanair (in which Henderson's Riverside Theatre leads the market), first up is the Jewson Novices' Chase, in which Peddlers Cross is favourite, but where Solix is priced up at 9-1, and I'm going to do it - show some respect for Henderson and the pink-armband-wearing Barry Geraghty - and back the leading jockey / trainer combo with a pt e/w.

Our Father  (5-1) is my choice for the 3m Pertemps Final and is well fancied.  Then after the Ryanair comes the World Hurdle.  Watching this in a Cheltenham pub last year was one of my most memorable sporting events ever.  Ruby dropped his whip and using the reins alone, powering Buck's up the hill to beat off a genuine challenge from Grands Crus.  The choice for tomorrow is still there to be made: either lump on big-style for a 16th consecutive Big Buck's win ...or go with Oscar Whisky - trained by Nicky Henderson and undoubtedly a class act - who is trading at 5-1.  That may be a leap of faith too far! 

Thinking Hector's Choice or Notus de la Tour in the 16:00 handicap and will be interested to see what Pricewise says in tomorrow's paper.  Finally, I'm really looking forward to see if, like last year with Junior, there will be another monster gamble in the 16:40, and if Sir Henry Cecil can win the charity race again - does anyone even know if he has a runner? Plato's victory in the "Derby" was a nice way to finish St Patrick's Thursday a year ago.

If anyone's in Cheltenham tomorrow night - do say hello!

DP

Cheltenham 2012 - Day 1

Palphabet Off to a Flyer with all but the Hurricane on a Whirlwind First Day

Cinders & Ashes, Quevega and Sprinter Sacre provided Palphabet with a successful start to this year’s Cheltenham Festival and a profitable first stab at prospective previews rather than just retrospective reviews.  Unlike Sprinter Sacre's brilliance, these tipping triumphs won’t last long, so I’m going to relish it this evening and keep looking forward with hopefully just a hint of smug permeating into this piece.

Cinders & Ashes and Hunt Ball both gave decent returns, whilst Quevega paid out £74 from a 6pt stake

The biggest damage to the coffers was done today by lumping £135.43 on a Hurricane Fly / Big Buck’s double at 2.64 on Betfair, and is yet to be reflected on the above P&L.  I did have a place bet on Rock on Ruby though, so the Champion Hurdle didn’t leave me too cold, and I was impressed again with Overturn’s fierce gallop.  Binocular showed signs that he would get going, but his inconsistencies continued.  Despite not tipping it in advance, I had a 1pt stake on Hunt Ball (and a smaller, losing bet on Harpsy Chord) that means I can go into tomorrow with a fully loaded gambling gun.

http://www.palphabet.blogspot.com/2012/02/go-with-your-gut.html

Tomorrow’s bet on Soll (now 8-1) drew enough attention when I put him up at 12s to be chosen by the nice people at sportingbet.com to form part of their “Cheltenham Chat” podcast (which you can hear here).  I have been lumping on Mullins's son of Presenting for the past couple of months and cannot wait to see him bring home the booty over the stamina-testing 4m Amateur Riders' Novices' National Hunt chase, which is first up on day two of what is now trending on Twitter as #CheltFest.

UPDATE 14-03-12 ... Read my guest blog preview of this race on Scott Ferguson's www.sportismadeforbetting.com here

With two of my antepost selections gone (Alan King's Invictus and Fingal Bay), I will eschew the complicated forecasts tomorrow, stick to Grands Crus (6-4 from 9-4 advised) in the RSA Chase and go for another of King's entries in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle: Battonier (9-1).

UPDATE 14-03-12 ... With Battonier declared a non-runner this morning and the Betfair selection voided, I have put my 1pt e/w on Make Your Mark instead. Davy Russell's ride for WP Mullins offers good value at around 10-1 and I've rather go there than Simonsig, about whom I have my doubts.

As Somersby opts for Thursday's 5f longer trip in the Ryanair Chase, tomorrow's Queen Mother Champion Chase price about Sizing Europe (11-10 as advised a month ago) is no longer available, but the 20-21 currently offered on the Betfair exchange is only a fraction shorter, and should be hoovered up.  I'll also have a bit of Kauto Stone for a place at around 11-4. 

In the later contests on Wednesday afternoon, AP McCoy is worth backing on board Jonjo O'Neill's Get Me Out Of Here in the Coral Cup at 12-1 - after Hunt Ball's performance today I won't be put off by the weight!  I also like Brendan Powell, who claims 5lbs atop the Dr Richard Newland trained Act Of Kalanisi (20-1).  Vendor (4-1) is the one to go for in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle, another Alan King horse who Choc Thornton put up as his nap of the week, but Kie jumped off the page at me available at 59-1 so I will have a small wager each way on this one of McCain's, who will have a fired-up Jason Maguire on board after his win in the Supreme today. 

Exhausting, exhilarating, and only just beginning!

DP