Cheltenham 2013 - Day 2

All aboard the Champagne Express! I must admit I feel drunk on the bubbles and sick with the thrill of the high-octane power inflicted by Messers Mullins and Walsh today. Whilst trackside observers were fortunate enough to witness Ruby Tuesday in the serenity of the Cotswolds, many of us had to slip out of our regular routines to find a television in order to be able to witness the most hotly anticipated day of the national hunt racing calendar, and it has a physical effect on us!

Returning to work after a selection has won or lost can be equally as difficult. Shaking, sweating and unable to focus on your professional tasks; colleagues looking at you with suspicion and confusion. Even if you haven't had a gamble, watching or listening to those contests today was enough to distract even the most casual of racing fans.

Ruby Walsh performed at his absolute best this afternoon. the three winning rides upon Champagne Fever, Hurricane Fly and Quevega perfectly highlighting the harmony with which Ruby connects to his equine partners in very different ways.

Champagne Fever made all the running in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, holding off the JP McManus pair of Jezki and the favourite, My Tent or Yours, their iconic green and yellow hoops flanking the pink of Champagne, and rewarding followers of yesterday's blog with a 6/1 return to kick-start proceedings or reward for laying MTOY at around 2/1.

£375 profit to start the day - BetVictor would have refunded £50 of my
stake had Champagne Fever failed to get the corks popping

Ruby knew: "he jumped like a stag" were his poignant words to Alice Plunkett in the immediate aftermath of a race in which his TurfTrax times were at least a couple of seconds quicker than his ride in the second grade 1 hurdle of the day, the championship race - the Champion Hurdle.

But the ride given to Hurricane Fly in the more prestigious contest was the antithesis of Ruby's earlier victory. In the build up to the race, I got caught up in the excitement and recalled with more clarity (thanks to the channel 4 replay) the disdain with which the Fly recently won the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. Having backed Zarkandar with the Paddy Power offer, I took Hurricane Fly on Betfair at 2.74 and also backed the forecast with bet365. A mile into the race I was worried. Hurricane Fly seemed uncomfortable in his stride, was off the bridle and being asked to give more and was jumping with clumsiness. But somehow, Ruby calmed the 2011 champion hurdler down and found some rhythm. Sidestepping the fallen Grandouet and back in control, he hunted down Rock on Ruby and the impressive (and young) Countrywide Flame, who I had antepost and topped up on each-way before the off, with the precision of a marksman. It was a breathtaking finish to an extraordinary race.



Last-minute money on Hurricane Fly with Betfair...Money back on losing Zarkandar bet with Paddy Power 

 

Simonsig vs Overturn disappointed in the Arkle, with the grey getting the job done, but with none of the fluency we were expecting, and the brave McCain trained flat and hurdle hero Overturn unable to get Simonsig to tire under the scrutiny of a rapid pace. I let out a small sigh, having laid Simonsig and backed overturn, whilst Backers of Simonsig / Quevega doubles breathed a sigh of relief.  After all, the Mares' Hurdle was a foregone conclusion.. wasn't it?

I quite literally backed the wrong horse.. and layed the right one too

At 1.8 on Betfair, the market didn't seem sure, so I have a £100 on her, with a speculative £10 e/w on Swincombe Flame and a bit on the Pricewise pick, Swing Bowler. Ruby Walsh further demonstrated his versatility on board the four-time Mares' champion, holding her back in amongst a packed field, and biding his time. Now, I don't know if he got the tactics absolutely spot on here or not, but I was calm and assured until it seemed Ruby had left it too late to get out into the open and urge Quevega on. He doesn't thrash at horses like many other jockeys, instead Ruby seems to connect with his animal, and this ride was reminiscent of the most in-depth interrogations Big Buck's has been subjected to on the rare occasions he gets cross-examined by his inquisitors. Quevega put her hoof on the racing bible and under oath, swore to deliver a 27/1 treble to backers of the three big hurdle winners today. Ruby's emotional delight at his trio of day one triumphs was matched only by the humble understatements of his trainer, WP Mullins, who simple stated how grateful he was for being given the opportunity to train these things. Incredible stuff.

Satisfying returns in the Mares' Hurdle as Quevega made history 

Spinning with success, the final profitable moment of the day for this blog came like a serendipitous additional train back home having delightfully dozed off and missed your stop. Already firmly in the green, and with my festival accumulator very much alive, Radjhani Express picked me up from Paradise Parkway and delivered me straight to the front door of my place on Astonishment Avenue. I had some confidence in Sam Waley-Cohen's chances, but at 25/1 (advised yesterday at 28/1), and with little support in the press amongst those who know far more than I do, it was phenomenally satisfying to collect another big chunk of cash at the close of a fantastic fillip-filled festival funday.

£470 profit for the day on Betfair to go with £375 on BetVictor, with about £50 of non-refunded losses elsewhere made it a smashing first day's work

 

Anyway, onto tomorrow.


National Hunt Chase

I honestly have no idea about this one yet! Will have a look in the morning but this was the race I tipped Soll for last year. The money I lost on the first race of day 2 last year saw me spiral out of control and lose about a grand on what we call "Black Wednesday" so I look down the card with a mixture of trepidation as the memories flood back, and also relief that I don't have any very strong fancies. It's an amateur jockey race, and so the first rider I looked for was today's winner Sam Waley-Cohen, but he doesn't have a ride booked - maybe he's busy putting a filling in someone's molar tooth in his dentist surgery? Only Godsmejudge for Alan King and Tofino Bay, ridden by Nina Carberry are jumping out at me at the moment, so I might have a small play on those two.

Neptune

All the talk has been for Pont Alexandre, who provides another opportunity for Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins to extend the lead they are enjoying over their rivals. At 2.58 on Betfair, I'd rather be a backer than a layer to get off to a solid start to the day with what many are calling the nap of the week!

RSA

Right - I'm on a Ruby Walsh / Paul Nicholls jockey / trainer double for the week and I'm going to go for Unioniste here. Boston Bob is being talked up as one who has been tilted for this race, and he will like the ground, but I'm going for the Ditcheat based grey, who wears the same eye-catching colours as another of my favourite horses, Al Ferof. The only other one that jumps out at me is Goulanes, but that's mainly because I immediately associate him with the gorgeous Kate Miller from William Hill, as she tipped him up to me at this same track just a few months ago.

"Queen Mum" - the Champion Chase
Nothing can beat Sprinter Sacre tomorrow. I'm on in my accumulator and think he will follow up last year's Arkle with another display of supreme leaping and rapid accelerating, doing so with that peacock-esque flamboyance that says he really knows he's bloody good. Mail de Bievre to follow him home at 5.2 for a place on Betfair looks good to me. I'm just glad Finian's Rainbow is nowhere to be seen.. he might be under the weather, but I'm not a fan and don't think he deserved this prestigious title last year when he got the better of Sizing Europe amidst all the "do-we-jump-don't-we-jump?" in the closing stages of the race.

Coral Cup

Pendra - half way down the weights, running off a mark of 139, figures of 1-112, AP McCoy desperate to get his first win of the week, odds of 17/2 available - done. Black Thunder for a place as an additional selection for Mr Nicholls at 7/1 on Betfair seems a reasonable price. He couldn't win when 9/2 favourite off the same mark of 145 when he had a claimant (Harry Derham) on board at Kempton in January but that is the only time he's finished outside the top 3 since his career began, you'll get a return if he finishes in the top 4 here, and the last time he was victorious was out in the west country on the softish left-handed undulations of Chepstow, not dissimilar to the conditions at Cheltenham in the morning.

Fred Winter and Bumper
No selection yet - it's been a long day and I need some rest.. but with the 2m Bumper featuring Joseph O'Brien riding for his father aboard Shield, chamion of the flat Richard Hughes saddling up on Sgt Reckless for legendary trainer Mick Channon, and Graham Lee chasing down a staggering 1000th win under rules with Caledonia (a 100/1 shot), there's a lot to consider in what many would usually write off as an end-of-the-afternoon donkey derby.

Phew..  I think Leyton Orient's win at home to Portsmouth tonight really took it out of me!

MORNING UPDATE:  I've backed Caledonia for the Bumper and, in the Coral Cup added another target - Ericht: trained by Nicky Henderson,  his jockey takes a massive 10lbs off a horse already only carrying 10-10 and with form figures of 1711, his last three rides being taken by Barry Geraghty and the one before that.... by today's jockey Gary Derwin.  I was delighted to see last year's Palphabet "Jumps Jockey of the Year" Brendan Powell Jr getting a win in a similar profile in yesterday's JLT with light-as-a-feather Golden Chieftain. 

Enjoy.

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 1

I'm not one to use the term "literally" lightly.  But I can honestly say this: never before have I metaphorically embarked upon a voyage across the symbolically stormy seas towards Cheltenham with such wind in my make-believe sails, figuratively speaking. 

I have, you see, had a weekend of punting successes, beginning with the Premier League of Darts on Thursday night, and concluding with the WGC Cadillac Championship at Doral yesterday that has seriously, literally given me the confidence to walk on water with this week's wagers.

Here's the summary of profit, although please deduct about £150 from this due to laying a bit of Tiger off on Betfair, and losing on a few top 10 golf bets:



A £150 both teams to score double, MvG vs Adrian Lewis 180s, a Sandown/Wolves Lucky 15 & a 6pt e/w monster on Tiger at Doral boosted my bet365 balance to over £3k - plenty of ammunition for the festival

My fondness for bet365's customer services has increased in harmony with my account balance over the past few days too.  Their telephonists and online-chat agents have provided me with answers to my questions regarding payouts and bonuses, leaving me feeling warmth towards them.  So it is with a small hint of guilt that I placed a fivefold for the week today that will undoubtedly make them regret the day they let me open an account with them (that was in December when their attractive odds about Sergio Garcia and Thongchai Jaidee in the Iskandar Johor Open led to my £200 deposit being matched by the firm, who then had to pay me out on both of those golfers at 4/1 and 16/1 respectively).  Forgive me for sounding smug, but can you pick many holes in this bet?

This fivefold pays around 360/1

But bet365 aren't the only bookmaker to feel sorry for this week, although they also have their Channel 4+1 offer, which rewards punters holding winning bets of 4/1 or higher on televised festival races with a free bet in the next televised race - an offer which gives plenty of value for siding with non-favourites in most races.  Paddy Power are leaving themselves extremely exposed by returning losing bets in tomorrow's Stan James Champion Hurdle if Hurricane Fly wins, and he is favourite to do so. 

William Hill are paying 5 places for your each way stabs in the Supreme Novices, a race in which there are some mammoth prices of 500/1 being quoted about a couple of the "rags" and meaning your horse only has to finish about half way up the field to ensure you get some kind of return.  With attractive options in the shape of Dodging Bullets, Champagne Fever and Puffin Billy threatening the supposed procession of My Tent or Yours and Jezki, and with the infamous regularity of short priced favourites getting turned over in the festival's curtain raiser, it's got to be worth taking on the JP McManus duo at the head of the market with one of the traditional firms, or by laying them on Betfair, who are waiving commission fees for tomorrow. 

Victor Chandler will refund losing bets on the same race up to £50 by crediting your account with a free bet you must stake before the end of the week.   If you win, you win... if you lose, you get the chance to win again - the poor bookies / exchanges are going to go broke in their quest for your betting business aren't they?

Maybe! With bankers like Quevega, Sprinter Sacre and potentially Simonsig and Bobs Worth (I'm not so sure about the latter two), there's every chance that the bookies' generosity in refunding monies and paying out half way down the field will be compounded by good old-fashioned high-rollers trying to win two-and-a-half-grand off a 10-grand stake (in the case of the Champion Chaser elect anyway).  Upon watching last year's Arkle, and forwarding to the leap about 2 minutes 10 seconds into this clip, I added Sprinter Sacre to my fivefold for the week without hesitation.

 

I had a great first day at Cheltenham in 2012, but a torrid Wednesday.  I am hoping for a less bumpy ride this year, and so I'm quite happy going with four or fivefold bets, using Lucky 15s and Super Yankees to spread the risk and prolong the fun, staking relatively confidently due to a fortunate finding of form but not getting too carried away where I'm not too sure, most notably in tomorrow's Arkle duel of Simonsig vs Overturn and the extremely competitive Champion Hurdle, although the various offers listed above mean I will have a bet of some kind!

 

Day 1 advice therefore is:

 

Supreme Novices

Lay: My Tent or Yours on Betfair

Back: Champagne Fever (either e/w with William Hill for 5 places, or with Victor Chandler, to get your money back if you lose)

 

Arkle

Watch Simonsig vs Overturn and enjoy it!  I was a fan of Overturn but the ground has me worried.  If I had  to bet, I would favour Overturn still at the prices - I think PP are going 4/1 in the morning

 

JLT

First big handicap of the meeting - a juicy one and I've just noticed Quantitativeeasing appear in my inbox thanks to my AtTheRaces.com tracker.  I've made a note asking "AP on board?" and yet I see that Barry Geraghty has the ride, with Champ taking Nadiya de la Vega as his preferred pick.  Bazza G says the following about JP McManus's "secong string" horse on his ATR blog: "I’d have been happier if the ground had been better because those conditions suit him. But he does seem to be coming to himself and he has now dropped to 1lb lower than when we were last successful."

I'll have a good look at this in the morning I think! 

 

Champion Hurdle

What a treat we have here!  Loads of contenders, three former champions (Binocular, Hurricane Fly and last year's victorious Rock on Ruby, who sports blinkers for the first time tomorrow) and the exciting Countrywide Flame, who I had at 45/1 for last year's JCB Triumph Hurdle and who I have backed antepost for this race at around 13/1 (having had some at 20/1 last month but most over the Christmas period at 11/1 before Darlan blew him away into fourth when he went off 6/4fav for the Christmas Hurdle).  Paddy's money back if Hurricane Fly wins looks tempting so I'll be going for Zarkandar to give Paul Nicholls his first win of the festival (incidentally I also think is worth backing the champion trainer to beat Henderson and Mullins this week at 7/1 as Nicholls has a fair few opportunities, particularly in some of the less glamourous races)

 

Cross-Country Chase

15 year-old A New Story finished runner up in this last year at 20/1 and is best-priced 20/1 to win it tomorrow.  Carrying 10-4 off a mark of 135 and with jockey AP (not that one - this is Mr AP Heskin) taking three pounds off thanks to his claim, it is worth a romantic couple of quid each way.  As Paul Kealy warns in today's Racing Post festival special though, "bear in mind that last year's ground was rock-hard compared to what the runners will face tomorrow".

 

Mares' Hurdle

Quevega is in my Super Yankee as above and without the presence of her male counterpart Big Bucks is probably the banker of the week.  Une Artiste to finish behind her.

 

Novices' Handicap Chase

The last race of the opening day and I've seen The Druids Nephew being tipped up all over the place today so will have to get on!  Sam Waley-Cohen takes the reins of Radjhani Express at the top of the weights, but takes off a handy 5lbs via his claim as an amateur jockey.  His ride at Kempton on heavy ground looked professional enough to me, albeit at a much lower mark of 129, and at 28/1 with Bet Victor is more than a speculative each way bet.  He comes from the same sire, Presenting, as festival favourite Denman and my personal weekend hero Soll, who contributed to the £700 lucky 15 win above and gave me impetus for the week ahead.

 

Best of luck - see you on the other side of the roar!  I cannot wait.

 

Nags, Stags, Slags and a Hag

It is said, probably, that a period of reflection helps to cleanse the soul and reinvigorate the brain.  That a fortnight's departure from this mortal toil with the love of your life (Mrs Palphabet) whilst abstaining from your bit on the side (betting) will aid clarity of thought and renewed focus on the really important parts of your existence. 

So, as I returned today to Palphabet towers after a couple of weeks in South Africa, it was somewhat alarming in my role as a relatively new husband (particularly to my relatively new wife), that I rustled through the mail with an excitement akin to a senior cardinal suddenly realising that He isn’t gazing down with the omnipresence he once feared.  Abstinence cannot rid you of those natural urges, whether the deity you worship is up there, or down here (in my case, presented to me this morning in the glossy form of the Racing Post’s Cheltenham Festival Guide 2013).

As I prepare myself for daily festival blogs next week, here's a photographic account demonstrating what the past few weeks have consisted of...

- a trip to Meydan racecourse in Dubai.. no bookmakers, but wifi was excellent and permitted untroubled access to the markets

 

- a stable tour at the Ditcheat base of champion National Hunt trainer Paul Nicholls, where the hospitality and geniality of the man himself, plus assistant Dan Skelton was a privilege to witness at close quarters 

 

 

 

 Top - PFN holds court before the gallops; Bottom left - more than a village; Bottom right: "this year's Champion Hurdler [Zarkandar, with Harry Derham on board] and next year's Champion Hurdler [Far West, partnered by Daryl Jacob]" - absolutely first class banter from the champion trainer at his magnificent Somerset HQ

 

- a stag party in Cardiff.. below left shows my stag pal Nunny posing whilst yours truly [in a fantastic get-up might I add] attempts to eke some profit out of Southampton versus Man City.  Below right just shows the stag, turned into a slag by a local hag.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- a trip to Ascot for another successful festival warm-up for Far West.. for more on this Triumph Hurdle contender, click here

 

Above - Henrietta Knight and I do our best impressions of Johnny 5 from "Short Circuit"

 

Below - Ascot in all its glory; Underneath - Palphabet blog on the blag..

 

 

 

- a stag party in Cape Town.. is that Henrietta Knight up the top of Table Mountain? Oh no, it's Johnny 5

- a wedding in Stellenbosch - the highlight of which was us horse racing around the dance floor.  No one else was impressed...

 

 

 

- a failed attempt to ride an ostrich.. apparently weighing over 75kg deems you too fat to actually take one for a spin, so I just sat on the poor thing while he did an impression of an armed-robber

 

 

- a growing enthusiasm for the forthcoming Cheltenham Festival and general increasing appreciation of the sport's rich tapestry

 

- a portfolio of antepost bets that has become more succinct, thanks to various non-runners, with increased stakes as delirium begins to take hold, particularly in the wake of the period of punting lent that I described above (the two week holiday).  Firstly, two decent stabs:

Then, a mixed bag, as two of my Gold Cup picks fell by the wayside

 

Finally, a flurry of delirious optimism.  Hopefully my 6pt each-way stake at 11-1 on Tiger Woods to win this weekend's WGC event at Doral will ensure that I can go to war at Cheltenham next week with a full strength armoury.

 

 

 

 

 

Hedge-hunter: Why it can Pay to be Prudent

As a man who regularly enjoys gambling on horse racing, I like to be fairly limited in my stakes.  It is easy to get carried away with the riches of the National Hunt calendar at this time of year and the schedule certainly gives us betting people a regular opportunity to have a wager.  So it is wise to be selective in your forays into the markets and perhaps use the opportunity to indulge in a Lucky 15 to prolong your enjoyment and limit your exposure.   My attention has recently been drawn to Betfred’s mouth-watering offer of trebling the odds on your sole winning bet if your multiple yields just the one victor, so I find that added insurance a tempting attraction.  

Despite often putting a great deal of research into my horse selections prior to putting down my punt, however, I seem to find myself haemorrhaging overall profit via impulsive itches to get stuck into in-play football matches, often flicking Sky Sports on and taking a view on the likelihood of the game to reward its viewers with a few goals.  Ray Winstone is a convincing actor (you only have to watch his portrayal of Henry VIII to know that), and the seductive cockney growl he employs on Bet365’s television commercials is not lost on me.

This is where money can easily be lost.  Odds on over / under 2.5 goals regularly teeter around the evens mark, so when I fancy a few onion-bag bulgers to go in, I will select Betfair’s over / under 3.5 goals market instead, and look for an opportunity to trade.

One such opportunity presented itself over the Christmas break.  Lean Liverpool, with a pacey, goal-hungry attack visited a bloated, too-much-turkey QPR who were down on their luck and seemingly devoid of desire to do anything about it.  The over 3.5 goals bet looked the play, so I got involved with a hefty wager, exposing myself to £250 worth of losses at a price of 3.0 (2/1).  

Luis Suarez duly delivered the early blow, breezing past QPR’s centre backs after just 10 minutes and opening proceedings with a slick goal.  By half time the scoreline was 0-3 to the away side.  QPR looked dead and buried, and Twitter was awash with criticism of the lack of fight, spirit and skill shown by the west London hoops.

But that’s how things stayed.  The result at the final whistle was the same as it was at the break: 0-3.  If I had staked my £250 on over 3.5 goals in a betting shop, I would have lost my money.  Instead I hedged my position on Betfair as the odds tilted in my favour.  Here’s a few pictures to tell the story:

***

OK – so the market rated the likelihood of this game rewarding us with more than three goals as a 33.3% chance.  I certainly thought it was more of a 50/50 shot so £250 went down prior to kick off, which was scheduled for a Sky Sports televised 4pm.  You can see the time at the top of this picture – after Liverpool went one up, the price on over 3.5 goals fell from 3.0 to 1.42 (a 70.4% chance).  I fancied Liverpool to press on and thrash QPR, but wanted to limit some of my losses, so I hit the lay button – effectively offering someone else to bet that there will be 3 goals or fewer.  You can see that I now stand to lose £100 (under) and win £381.20 (over).

 

 

Still with me?  Good.  A few minutes later, the controversial Uruguayan striker shot another dagger to the heart of QPR’s woefully inept defence.  At 0-2 it seemed almost inconceivable that this match wouldn’t be an absolute goalfest.  The market moved again:

 

Now the odds on more than 3.5 goals have shortened to just 1.11.  This is suggesting that there is a 90% probability of two more balls hitting the net before full-time.  The backers are out in force, thinking they’re buying money, and throwing cash at overs.  A £100 stake here would return £11 profit minus Betfair commission.

I decide to “exit” the market completely at this stage.  This gives me a free bet as my initial stake has now been returned and I either win (at best) or lose nothing (at worst).   There is only a hint of doubt that the goals won’t continue to fly in, but I’d rather not be risking anything if I don’t have to, and freeing up my £100 of remaining also exposure means I have funds available to bet on something else!  Frustratingly, Daniel Agger made it three to Liverpool after 28 minutes of play, so for a while I was thinking that I’d given up some much-desired profit.  As it eventually transpired, I needn’t have worried...

 

 

I use the iBetMate App on my iPhone, but for users of the official Betfair app, here’s what your screen would look like in this scenario.  They have this “Cash Out” feature on there which does the work for you.  At this point, hitting that big yellow button would mean that, whatever the outcome, I would win £346.72.

Greedily gorging myself over Christmas was not limited to the dinner table, though, and I still thought that Liverpool would get a fourth, hoping that maybe a half-time kick up the backside from ‘arry Redknapp might see QPR get one back.

So at half time, I made myself a cup of tea and had a little think before acting.  Rather than giving myself an opportunity to earn over £300 on either outcome, I laid a bit more of over 3.5 at around 1.2 and locked in a minimum of £190:

 

I’m sure you get the picture by now, and by way of balance I want to demonstrate that my trading on goals in football matches is not always this successful.  Discipline is key, and you should probably set yourself some profit targets before commencing your day’s work.  The following week, I had a similar strategy in the Southampton v Arsenal game, but didn’t execute the tactics with anywhere near as much effectiveness, resulting in a loss of £250.  I take some comfort in a good old fashioned wager though, and the £160.10 won on Suarez to score twice against QPR still feels better than the sensible hedging and trading of the goals market.  I guess while us gamblers might want to see ourselves as clever merchants of the multitude of markets available to us, deep down, we’re all seeking the thrill of a big win off a small stake!

Coral Welsh National - Value in the Wye Valley

Did you know there are apparently more atoms in a standard glass of water than there are glasses of water in all of the oceans on Earth?  Given the amount of rain that has fallen on Cheltenham over the Christmas period (68mm), and Chepstow on 22^nd December alone (31.98mm – the highest December daily fall for 8 years), I think that fact could be rewritten:  there are more atoms on west country/Monmouthshire racetracks than there are glasses of champagne consumed in a big-race winners’ enclosure. Or something.  Postponed due to more moisture than your average otter’s pocket, the Coral Welsh National has been rescheduled for this Saturday, and I have had a few thoughts that could, with a bit of good fortune, help get the New Year’s bubbly flowing for Palphabet readers.

I have talked up this horse before (6 minutes into this clip). I have backed him and been disappointed before. I have also been encouraged by him before. And before I go any further, I’ll give you his name: Soll. A close relative of Denman (not quite a half-brother as the progeny collide on the sire Presenting’s side, rather than on that of the mare), this Derrick Mossop-owned and Jo Hughes-trained beast has made the switch over from Willie Mullins’s yard in Closutton, Co Carlow, to a stable in Lambourn where the close attention of a female guv’nor who trains only a 'Norfolk-handful' of thoroughbreds over the sticks (she has six jumpers) seems to be paying dividends. The change in scenery from illustrious to relatively unknown may seem strange to some, but the owner specifically wanted a woman running a focused operation to take over the day-to-day training schedule of Soll as he felt the horse could benefit from a bit of extra TLC, and Hughes is said to be waxing lyrical about the latest recruit to her team.

The ears of the pundits have been pricked too.  Soll was the pick of a couple of presenters on The Morning Line as he vied for the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury off a mark of 140. The very impressive Henderson Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite, Bobs Worth went on to win that race but the depth and quality of the field was plain to see. Tidal Bay gallantly carried top weight and achieved a runner-up place, was raised from an offical rating of 166 to 169 and went on to win the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on the 27^thDecember, under one of three festive rides from Ruby Walsh that, collectively, made Alan Sweetman's Ireland's Eye well up with admiration.  Sweetman wrote in his Racing Post Christmas Highlights piece yesterday:  “In all my time watching racing I don't think I've witnessed three successive races won in such a manner by the same jockey”. He called it a "feat worthy of comparison with anything in the wider sporting world, as awe-inspiring as a Lionel Messi hat-trick, a sequence of birdies by Rory McIlroy or three aces in a row from Novak Djokovic".  Praise indeed, although I think Alan missed the opportunity to parallel the joy brought about by Walsh's equestrian talents with the ecstacy felt by Leyton Orient fans on account of current golden boy Moses Odubajo's sweet feet.  Ahem, I digress..

In the process of winning the Lexus, Tidal Bay saw off Gigginstown House Stud owned First Lieutenant, a 2 ½ length runner-up to Bobs Worth in last year’s RSA and himself placed third in the Hennessy, and the much-revered Flemenstar, who some have been quick to write off over the three-miles attempted in Ireland on Friday but who Tom Segal has said via the Racing Post’s website, has actually enhanced his credentials as a staying chaser.  Whether that thing goes for the Champion Chase and gives Sprinter Sacre a proper challenge; the Ryanair and wins a mid-distance test that Peter Casey’s son Francis described as a non-entity (upsetting Cheltenham chairman Robert Waley-Cohen in the process); or the Gold Cup for the most prestige; the fact that he got beaten by a head by an unbelievably likeable horse-jockey partnership should be taken in the Christmas spirit rather than bah-humbugged away like a failed new year’s resolution.

Anyway, that’s Flemenstar.

A Palphabet favourite, Wayne Hutchinson, causes 14/1 Welsh National shot Universal Soldier to catch the eye but I’ve noticed this evening that Soll has been tipped by Ben Hutton on the Racing Post’s Welsh National preview video, and see on www.oddschecker.com that he’s one of the most fancied bets anywhere in sport tonight.

Soll seems to be on punters' radars ahead of the weekend

There’s clearly some serious attention on this big chestnut gelding.  Why not have a watch of his performance at Newbury, focusing on his jumping, fluency in running and without worrying too much about him fading away on testing ground on this seasonal reappearance.

Mark Howard makes some encouraging comments about Soll in his National Hunt bible One Jump Ahead. Howard says this:

“Soll won over hurdles for John Quinn prior to joining Willie Mullins in Ireland. The Presenting gelding provided Mullins with his 100^th winner of the season last term (fastest ever in Ireland) when scoring at Down Royal in February. Brought down at Cheltenham [in the 4m National Hunt Chase], he has only run three times over fences and is held in high regard by his connections. “He’s a big baby but hopefully he has a big future,” remarked his owner Derrick Mossop, while Mullins stated in March: “He’s a big staying type and a horse we like a lot.” There could be a major staying handicap to be won with him this season.

In a handicap, you need a horse who can show improvement above his mark. I’ve just got off the phone to the owner’s son, Dan Mossop, who couldn’t contain his excitement about this “unexposed giant of a horse” and thinks he can run well above his mark of 139 under a weight of 10-12.

A few things points to summarise why Soll represents value for Saturday:

1. To win a race like this, you need to be a strong jumper, with plenty of stamina. Soll’s jumping is excellent and stamina is a key attribute.

2. His trainer, Jo Hughes, has been full of praise for his improvement since his decent performance in the Hennessy.

3. That Hennessy was very strong. For Tidal Bay (runner-up) to be raised by the handicapper from 166 to 169 and still win the Lexus shows the strength of the Newbury race

4. Front page headline grabber and AP McCoy mount Teaforthree won the 4m festival race in which Soll was brought down, and has figures of 2311 at Chepstow, justifying favouritism. But Teaforthree had a warm up race at Cheltenham in November before finishing sixth in the Hennessy, just over 6 lengths in front of Soll, who wasn’t really match fit after a long lay-off since March, when he wasn’t right in himself. Yet Teaforthree heads the market for Saturday at a best-price 3/1 now, whilst Soll is available at four or five times the price. It would not surprise me one iota if Tom Segal makes Soll his Pricewise pick when the Racing Post is digitally published tomorrow night.

I’ve had a few stabs on Betfair and Bet365 at prices ranging from 18/1 down to 14/1 with stakes that might be considered atomic to some hardcore punters but are fairly gigantic by my standards, and I hope to be able to buy more than a few glasses of water with the winnings come Saturday night. Let’s hope this enthusiasm seems more cosmic than comic by Sunday morning.