Enjoyment is Eternal

Today I'm venturing out for a day's racing with a twist - it's all been organised by my Auntie Wendy as a birthday celebration for my Nan (Rita), who turns 80 today!

Me & my Nan sharing a joke about something undoubtedly hilarious

What better way to celebrate the landmark of becoming an octogenarian than meeting at the local for a fry-up, boarding a luxury mini-bus / coach (at what point does a mini-bus become a coach?) and heading up the M11 to Newmarket?  After the day is done, we are due to return to The Thatcher’s (nestled in the village of Hatfield Heath on the east Herts/west Essex border) for a hearty evening meal before staying at my parents’ crib. http://www.thatcherspub.co.uk/

The family fun-day will no doubt, however, be marred.  As my mum & dad enjoy the entertainment of £2 punts at the bookies’ stalls and my brothers pick horses by their amusing names, I’ll have already placed hefty wagers on Betfair and will be looking to top up with hearty cash injections at the mundane tote desk.. and whilst the rest of the family will board the return coach / mini-bus with laughter and merriment, I’ll be bringing the tone down having lost a couple of hundred quid by moaning all the way back from the Cambridgeshire-Suffolk border. Looking forward.

The P&L got a little boost last night, laying off the 1-2 scoreline in Montenegro £150 at 1.4 and walking away with £75 profit from the butchery in the black mountains.  Having put £75 at 9.8 on “any unquoted scoreline” I had thought that I would be quids-in after an early flurry of goals, and I was most disappointed to see Roondog getting sent off, having backed £20 of my hard-earned on him to score at 2.32.

Today, I like the look of Strong Suit in the first at Newmarket, and will be taking on Power in the Dewhurst.. but, all jokes about misery aside, the thing I am anticipating most is the prospect of uncovering 2012’s Frankel.  There’s a colt called Trumpet Major also running in the 3.10 today that I’ve backed antepost for the 2000 Guineas having seen him finish second at Ascot in the summer under Ryan Moore.  A look at his record on http://www.irishracing.com/v5horseinfo?prt=422893 reveals a liking for Newmarket, so I will seek him out at the track.  Funnily enough, he was brought to my attention by my fiancée, who backed him due to his cheerful moniker, so what do I know?  Johnny Murtagh is on-board this afternoon http://www.racingpost.com/horses/home.sd?story=927915&argument=779114

As I write this, Wales seem to have demolished a tired-looking Irish XV down under.. The score stands at IRE 10-22 WAL with 5 mins to go.  I had put £7 on Ireland at 55s before the tournament begun (following Will Greenwood's Betfair tip), but having layed off the All-Blacks with a £100 exposure, I will also profit if Wales [or any other nation for that matter] proceed to lift the World Cup.  With their stalwart defence and inventive attack, they look a quality outfit, and perhaps only their kicks let them down slightly this morning.

Happy Birthday to my Nan: 80 years old today and still fully enjoying - that's what it's all about, isn't it?

DP

ps. one more thing - I met Alan Partridge this week, cheers!

I combined a business card with the handshake... hopefully not giving AP a papercut

Punting can be fun, but don't end up Falling Underwater..

I heard the ex-snooker player and suicide-survivor Willie Thorne on Hawksbee & Jacob's talkSPORT show earlier today:

http://www.talksport.co.uk/radio/hawksbee-and-jacobs/blog/2011-09-20/willie-thorne-snooker-county-cricket-and-being-bald-21

He's just written a book about his life, which is littered with references to his battle with depression.  This will surprise many members of the public who, like myself, thought Thorne was a happy-go-lucky sort of chap with an excellently sculpted moustache and a wife who is clearly a couple of metaphorical boxing divisions above him. 

Entitled "Taking a Punt on my Life", and I'm paraphrasing / guessing here as I have not read it, his autobiography recollects a career in snooker that provided Big Willie's only viable option for making much-needed money to pay back an ever-increasing number of loan sharks to whom debts spiralled out of control.  These lenders, Willie stressed, were not the nicest of people.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2037899/Willie-Thorne-Snooker-star-discusses-sucide-attempt-new-autobiography.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Now, this blog is primarily about gambling, trading, playing the markets... call it what you will.  Until the day that I lay every horse in a race or offer odds on every conceivable event, I am a first and foremost, a backer.  They say you never find a poor bookie, so I would love to be able to use the Betfair interface to play the role of the bookie at all times and thus fall into that utopian category.. but I prefer to punt. 

I like the thrill of it rather than the business of it.  Don't get me wrong, there are times when I will trade and masquerade as the bookmaker. Take last week, for example: having backed Roger Federer to beat Nole Djokovic in the US Open semi-final, I layed off the Swiss when he had his two match points and fell to 1.06 on the exchange. Having been in an almost identical position the year before, I had declined that option...and lost £425.  I went to bed that night feeling ill.  This year I had learnt my lesson, and walked away from the match virtually unscathed.  But I still lost £300 laying 0-0 in the QPR v Newcastle game (how that ended goalless I do not know) and my UK Betfair P&L for the past 11 days may disturb those of a nervous disposition:

Boxing: -£34.50 | Cricket: £103.76 | Horse Racing: £13.62 | Soccer: -£159.80 | Tennis: -£372.66 | Total P&L:  -£449.58

Listening to Willie on the wireless earlier made me think how lucky I am to live in the age where blogging means I can be open and honest to my readers, even if the numbers of my online readership does fail to outnumber the total amount of goals scored by Leyton Orient so far this season.

He said that he bottled up his problems with gambling, lied to his family and friends, and woke up in the middle of the night, his mind reeling with stress and depression trying to deal with it all.  I wake up in the middle of the night and all I want to do is post on Twitter about my thoughts surrounding the overnight developments in some far-away golf or snooker tournament, or check the Met office's forecast for the next day's weather overhead at the home of cricket.

We live in an age where every advertisement break brings you face-to-face with Ray Winstone telling you to "Bet in Play..NAAAAW", Will Hills bombarding you with old-skool hip-hop beats, and Paddy Power promotions using hot girls with a hint of irony to appeal to the cheeky chancers amongst us.  There is temptation all around.  But there are also myriad sites and organisations that can help those feeling their heinous habit of parting with their cash to bolster their beliefs is running away from them.  There is more opportunity than ever to get your thoughts out in the open.  Willie has done his bit to help, and although he had a reputation for choking at the baize (which he says is mainly due to the fact that he was under more pressure to make money from snooker than most), my admiration for him has certainly been enhanced by hearing him air his opinions out loud, in the open and with a frankness that many punters, gamblers or traders could benefit from facing up to.

Don't Gamble with Friendly Chinese Girls

Did you know that in China, you can't use Twitter, you can't update your status on Facebook, and you can't legally gamble? Despite the fact that I have spent many an hour at a London Blackjack table next to many tea-drinking, coughing and spluttering Chinamen and women, in their own domestic superpower, it is forbidden.


I therefore felt like a sophisticated hacker when, upon reaching my Shanghai hotel last Sunday, I punched my password into the excellent iBetMate App (@betwaregames) and was presented with the familiar screen allowing me access to many money-making market opportunities, and the dubious pleasure of consulting my P&L.


It read thus:

Horse Racing: £10.15 | Tennis: £32.24  Total P&L:  £42.39


My £25 e/w on the talented Chubby Chandler / Lee Westwood-owned Hoof It had covered my stake, returning a measly profit of a tenner for his third-place finish, Murray had done it the hard way, coming back from a couple of sets down against Robin Haase and proving my lay of the Dutchman at 1.5 correct.  The ODI cricket, in which I was exposed to the tune of about £60, was called off and so all bets were void.

I headed out onto the streets of Shangers, taking in the sights on the Bund, dodging bicycles and spitting women who inhabit the lanes off the beaten track, and finally ate some chicken feet: skin, bones and cartilage spiced with a tangy chili glaze. Yum.  Then I met two chicks who took me to a "Tea Tasting Ceremony" in some little establishment, where I paid about £35 for 90 minutes tea-tasting, investing £100 in some of the leaves, before learning later that this classic scam had done me up like a kipper! Was I really that lacking in street-wise nous?  I thought I was enjoying a traditional experience, practised by the easterners since the days of the Ming Dynasty.  Turns out, they had made this Ming a mong :(

http://www.tripadvisor.in/ShowTopic-g294211-i642-k1172540-Tea_Ceremony_Scam_in_Shanghai_BEWARE-China.html

Beware the cute little tea experts!

The remainder of my trip was successful. Despite being able to gamble, I just couldn't really keep abreast of things out there, so I left it all alone.  I landed home on Friday morning, caught up on some admin and managed to make up for a week off from Betfair with a torrid day's trading:

Cricket: -£105.90 | Tennis: -£39.50  Total P&L:  -£145.40

And that's just the UK wallet!  Having backed England vs India at the Oval, I became convinced that the visitors would triumph, with newly drafted all-rounder Jadeja looking impressive. Over on Ashe, I was let down by Roddick's failure to keep up with Nadal's power, who blasted into the final four 3-0 (the set bet scoreline I had laid!) to join the other top seeded racquet wielders. 

Down under, having transferred a £100 war-chest into Betfair's Australian wallet (which also allows you to punt on events occurring in NZ and Tasmania.. looking forward to the National Tasmanian Devil Derby later this year), I promptly lost small stakes on New Zealand to win their opener against Tonga by +70.5 pts on the handicap and Dan Carter to score more than 17.5 individual points - I had £50 on that at 1-2 and was cursing the gorgeous egg-chasing record-breaker as he missed a couple of easy kicks and finished short of my required mark.

My long-term bets for the tournament are £7 on Ireland to win outright at 54-1 with a view to laying off later, and England to win the whole thing: £30 at 18.5.

I'm going to sign off and make a nice English Breakfast cup of Twinings tea, add a drop of milk, and drink it (without slurping or sucking it down like the Shanghai locals) whilst watching England take on the Argies.. no idea what to bet on so will consider the RP's advice of England to win by >11.5pts.


I'm also going to have Wilkinson to score more than 13.5pts, backing at 1.75 with £40.

Xie Xie!!

Trading on Five-Day Cricket: A Test of Nerve

12th August - 25th August 2011
Cricket: £152.08 | Golf: £37.73 | Horse Racing: £92.23 | Soccer: £2.92  Total P&L:  £284.96

The series may have ended in a joyous whitewash of India for the new holders of the ICC mace, but as Swanny celebrated like a demented fish in the middle, I was somewhat more sedate on the sidelines.  Yes, I was delighted that the side I have seen at Lord's against Sri Lanka twice this summer, and followed from Edgbaston to the Oval against the former world number ones, have reached the pinnacle of test cricket, but I'm left feeling empty at the prospect of a load of one-dayers and T20 matches, even with the promises of some heart-racing trading opportunities.

When I'm honest with myself, I can only put this emotional void down to the fact that I feel the £152.08 profit yielded over the past couple of weeks could have been so much more had I not panicked during Monday's final day of play in south London.

Having layed £200 at 1.55 about the draw after the first day's play, and strengthened with an additional stake of £80 at 3.4, I was looking a healthy profit dead in the face.  With the same steely resolve that Rahul Dravid showed as he racked up a monster 146*, carrying his bat, and eschewing a lie-down to come straight back out of the India dressing room after Strauss enforced the follow-on, I was convinced that a wall had been built around my cold-blooded Betfair persona.

Looking back, the warning signs were there.  I had been a bit shaky, a tad nervy, waking up very early (04:32!) on Monday and worrying about the weather forecast, I backed the draw, but immediately reversed that decision and re-layed, having read a more favourable predictor of meteorological events.

Then on the final day of the test match, with sun drooling down on the Oval proving the weatherman correct, and Tendulkar being carried along by rookie night-watchman Amit Mishra, the markets started turning against me.  Like Gambhir backpedalling to a Kevin Pietersen top-edge, I failed to sieze the opportunity I had been given, and fell over myself, eyes rolling about in my heed, as the draw became clear favourite on the exchanges.  Heading towards lunch, the draw fell from odds-against, to evens, to 1.8 then 1.65 and it all became too much for me.

With a recent post whirling around my dizzy dome (http://palphabet.blogspot.com/2011/08/pricewise-on-rolland-its-rubbing-off.html) and convinced the markets were reflecting reality, I decided to back out of the position, and waded into the draw like I was being pulled in by quicksand.  £650 backed at 1.65.

I went from GREEN, GREEN, RED to RED, RED, green in a space of seconds.. lunch was taken, and the draw fell further to 1.4.  I felt some relief.  But I kept saying to myself: "What if SRT and this part-timer lose their wickets? What if Swanny starts extracting some of that famous Oval turn?  What if the new ball makes a difference?"  

Chatting it through with @paolobow, we weighed up some of these possibilities, but had to accept that the right decision had probably been made.  The draw stood at 1.17 and I layed off £100 of my stake, reducing my £44 profit on the draw down to about £25 and thinking it was better than nothing.  

Then - drama! My ESPNcricinfo app started buzzing through to me - OUT! A Mishra 84 b Swann.... woah..ok......then OUT! SR Tendulkar 91 lbw b Bresnan... oh no.. like Gambhir coming to his senses and realising the error he had made, I suddenly felt ill (yet simultaneously gutted for Sachin and yet delighted for Brezza).  I was exposed to the tune of around £300 on an England victory.  A couple of hours ago, that outcome would have netted me nearly £400. 

I checked the markets: the draw stood at 1.6... still, even with those wickets falling.  I didn't understand it.  Taking an impulsive deep breath, I submerged myself again, laying £300... "Success!" said the iBetMate App that I used, "Bet UNmatched".  How that can be regarded as success in such spine-tingling moments, I will never know.  I adjusted the odds offered to 2.2 and clicked submit.  £300 matched at 14:58.

By 15:02, just four minutes later, the draw was out to 5.4.  I layed £30 and watched in awe as the figures lengthened further, the markets sent into haywire by a spell of 7 wickets for just 21 runs in an insane afternoon calypso-collapse by the struggling subcontinentals.

So, I walked away with a profit of £89.13 from this fourth and final test match.  It could have been much more, but I suppose a hell of a lot worse.  The whole episode re-emphasised to me that, whilst betting on test-cricket, you need to keep a) a close eye on the odds and b) your head....don't let the panic of the punters cloud your judgement or you'll miss the ball and end up like goggley-eyed Gambo on your back with a market-migraine..

Please click to enlarge and view the full extent of the turmoil

Never Mind The Bollocks, It's Worth A Try!

Whilst recently contemplating jacking everything in and becoming a full-time Betfair trader, I was reminded of a story that appeared a couple of years back, in that bastion of investigative journalism and insightful social commentary, the News of the World.  The "story", and it was utter bollocks, was that a 22 year-old city dropout named Elliott Short, had made himself a multi-millionaire in a year by simply laying the favourite and one other horse in races, the theory being that these two lose or can be backed in-running to guarantee a profit..

A punter's dream, I hear you cry.. I cried the same joyous tears.. if some tea-boy from a bank can do it, it'll be even easier for me! This piece from the Guardian shatters the illusion pretty succinctly

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2009/jun/30/greg-wood-betfair-notw-story

Still, I was encouraged when googling terms like "laying the field" or "lay all", that I came across Scott Ferguson's excellent blog, "Sport is Made for Betting", where he references the strategy as an enjoyable and often fruitful method of making cash out of the backers:

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2009/04/lay-field-my-favourite-racing-strategy.html

I am going to give it a try, and have started this afternoon with small £2 - £5 lay stakes, with liabilities per race limited to £30 - £60. 

It wasn't quite a "Eureka!" moment, but certainly a modern dimmer-switch effect in a contemporary flat. The light bulb was partially illuminated above my shaven-head / receding hairline after successfully opposing two odds-on Ballydoyle colts this afternoon (Seville and Await the Dawn) and opting to strengthen my position on the rest of the field by backing Namibian and Midday, who sadly both failed to claim victory in the successive York stakes.   An in-play lay of Midday, however, who looked in great nick but ultimately came in behind her Warren Place stablemate Twice Over, led to greater profit as I managed to have £40 snapped up by a greedy backer at just 1.3. 

Analysing the race afterwards, I thought that I would spend the rest of the early evening looking at races on channel 415 from Folkestone, Hereford and Bellewstown, laying favourites and monitoring in-play, placing bets that were unmatched from the off, but taken as the race unfolded.  I netted a further £33 profit from aforementioned small, toe-in-the-water stakes.  Took me back to my previous entry (see How involved in the markets are you? http://palphabet.blogspot.com/2011_07_01_archive.html)

Please click image to enlarge and enjoy!

I'm sure many Betfair aficionados reading will think my naivety is sweet and that it will all come crashing down, but I'm gonna give it a bash.. at least I can't follow the exposed idiot Elliott Short into the NOTW..

Looking!

Pricewise on a roll...and it's Rubbing Off!

Pricewise has been on fire recently and, having got stuck into some big double-figure winners, it's got me thinking about what life would be like as a professional practitioner of the backing/laying battle.. I don't want to be a professional punter, as I love to lay on the exchanges, and so I've started considering some mantras and mindsets to help me on my way..

To see Pricewise's recent form, check out http://tipsterform.com/category/tom-segal-tips/pricewise-tips/

I have to credit (or blame) the Racing Post's excellently entertaining golfing tipster Steve Palmer @stevepalmer78, his colleague Jeremy Chapman, the oracle known as Tom Segal (his surname is pronounced See-gal as in "legal" and "eagle", rather than Se-GAL, which is how most people say it!) and Pete Nordsted @petenordsted, author of the excellent "Mastering Betfair" for my recent changes in attitude towards/fortune on the markets.  After some early luck gambling, and a brief period thinking I understood the intricacies of the exchanges, I've realised some hard truths:

1. I am mortal - after a few wins, don't think you can't lose - don't get greedy with profits and end up "sinking" - see previous post "How involved in the markets are you?"

2. Get out when you can -  have a profit in mind before entering a market, particularly a long-term one like the winner of a football league, sports personality of the year or the next london mayor.. if things start turning against you, get out early and accept a small loss rather than "riding it out" and losing a boot load

3. Go hard and with conviction - this kind of counteracts the above but I now see that some of Pricewise's very clear recommendations are worth lumping on big time.  Don't just look at his bold numbers, but actually read the prose.  I'm convinced that Segal uses superlatives sparingly and when you read, and re-read his words, you can see that he doesn't REALLY want you to go with just 1pt on everything to win!  There are lays to be found in there too and the skill in following pricewise in is looking for the subtle tips and not just the obvious ones.    Thanks Paolo for the brainwave on this one!  Palmer's recent "betting highs" have also shown the merits in going gung-ho and searching for that "face-spitting" win.. the win that boosts your bank balance to such a significant level that you can a) resign from your job and b) do so by flobbing a greeny straight into your boss's face!

4. Feed money in and out of betfair - don't leave a load of cash in your account - you'll only spend it on stuff you don't want to get involved in.. those extra few minutes to deposit funds may well provide much needed clarity to a situation.

5. Don't bet on stuff you can't keep an eye on - unless you are just going for a straightforward punt on something, I think it's essential to be able to watch the event "live" whenever possible.

6. Use stop losses and limit orders - if you have to go out, this is useful, but even not, put the bets onto the Betfair exchange and leave them unmatched - this way you can think with head rather than heart .. just make sure you check the box to keep the bet live after the event turns in-play.. Look for horses that come from the back with a late surge, and place a bet up to 10 times bigger than the SP in the hope that it will get matched after a few furlongs.. equally place a lay to cover your stake on those "Frankels" that shorten early and could potentially come unstuck one day .. *maybe Frankel isn't a great example for this!

7. Have a strategy / tactical plan in mind for an event - I've been guilty of breaking this rule too many times in the past.  Think about what you will be prepared to accept (wins & losses) and act with a clear head rather than blind panic

I know that a fellow punter, Si Nicoll is keen to develop a ten-commandments of betting, and I invite you to share with me your rules of attacking various sporting events with the power of your CVV code so we can exapand upon some of these ramblings!

How involved in the markets are you?

 

Chatting to my pal Paolo (@paolobow) about our levels of interest in various betting markets, it became apparent that we require some kind of peer-reviewed, universal scale to reflect punters' activity in, awareness of and liabilities exposed to different kinds of gambling arenas.

We swiftly decided on a crude system, using terminology more commonly associated with aquatic exploration, which I will detail forthwith. Please feel free to add your own suggestions to improve the gauge, as it is in its infancy. We feel though, having had experience developing similar scales for other pastimes with our mutual friend Tim @Westdrop (namely the scoring systems by which we rate Indian Restaurants, and the way in which we are able to easily describe to each other just how "out of it" we are, or were, during a session on the annoes or ales) that we are well poised to get the ball rolling.

Proposed Scale for Describing Involvement in a Market:

1. Dipping
2. Floating
3. Immersed
4. Submerged
5. Deep
(6. Drowning)

Examples of each would include:

Level 1. "I'm just dipping my toe in the Eurovision Market, 0.5pt on Jedward, but I obviously won't watch the event"

Level 2. "I've been floating around this Market for a while.. I find the way that SPOTY2011 incorporates both sporting and socio-political events really allows me to pit my wits against the layers"

Level 3. "I'm immersed in the antepost Market for the forthcoming Ebor Handicap, having followed Segal's advice on Tominator on a previous occasion and also having a lot of time for Lost in the Moment, the Godolphin colt who's given me a couple of TBP wins in the past. Looking."

Level 4. "Oh I am submerged in this Market.. I layed the draw at the start of the test match with liabilities of over £500 and have gradually, through some careful Market positioning and a hell of a lot of luck, got myself in a green, green, green position, having had about 8 or 9 bets matched over the weekend!"

Level 5. "£200 on Denman. On the nose. Deep."

Level 6. I don't really want to talk about this. This is that feeling when you know you should have layed off a monster bet on Roger Federer as he drops to 1.04 with two match points, but you get way too greedy, leave it alone and end up feeling salt-water fill up your lungs as Fed inexplicably throws it away.

So... What do you think?

DP