Can Kauto keep the KG in the Family this Christmas?

I’m dreaming of a wet Christmas.  In fact, I’m not dreaming at all. The weather outside is quite literally frightful, and word from Kempton is that the going is soft, soft to frightful in places too.  http://www.kempton.co.uk/The-Going

As I sit here in bed, the Racing Post Annual 2013 freshly unwrapped next to me, the Betfair market open on tomorrow’s King George VI Chase, my mind drifts back to last year’s emotional encounter with a legend of the turf.  Kauto Star’s performance on boxing day 2011 was such a beautiful event to witness from the side of the Sunbury on Thames track that I have decided to keep head dry and powder only slightly moistened for this year’s interesting contest.  I have laid Long Run at 3.15, backed Riverside Theatre at 7.0, and have not touched the antepost market, something I am feeling quite relieved about now.  


https://mobile.twitter.com/planey2k/status/283591724851400704/photo/1 

With Sizing Europe (Tom Segal’s pick), Hunt Ball (a fans’ favourite), Finian’s Rainbow (top rated two-and-a-half-mile chaser), Sir Des Champs (desperate to get back on winning terms after losing out on home soil to training compatriot Flemenstar in the Grade 1 John Durkanchase earlier in the month) and many others besides, all being withdrawn from the race, there is really only a sub-field of six to seriously consider.  They are:  Long Run, Cue Card, Riverside Theatre, Kauto Stone, The Giant Bolster and Grands Crus.  

If Long Run can come anywhere close to putting together a fluent round of jumping, even on testing ground, we know he will stay and most likely win.  But there is enough doubt in my mind to oppose him and the Dentist on board at the prices.  Paddy Power are offering money back if your selection finishes second to Long Run and this is a typically generous insurance policy from a bookie who prides itself on hearing the punters’ cry for offers.  Their blog comments on the positive jockey booking of AP McCoy on board last season’s Gold Cup runner up The Giant Bolster, who is trading at 9/1 on the exchanges this morning and has to be strongly considered in this company.  I have backed Riverside Theatre with that memorable ride from Barry Geraghty at Cheltenham still as fresh in my mind as the horse will be on his seasonal reappearance tomorrow.  Bazza G gave him a peach of a steer round at the festival in what was for many, including this blogger, the ride of the season http://palphabet.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/tied-up-in-knotts-over-hunt-ball.html and although he’s stepping up in trip, I think 6/1 is a fair price.  The 9-8 forecast of Riverside Theatre followed home by Long Run is worth a stab too, but will require a reversal of form from the 2010 King George, where Long Run at his peak put stablemate 12 lengths into his shadow.

Another horse stepping up in trip, Cue Card, shouldn’t be the same price as Riverside Theatre in my opinion, so I’ll be leaving him.  Grands Crus has been largely disappointing of late, but has had Cue Card in his pocket before so there will be some who retain a bit of faith in the grey who was so impressive when winning over C&D in the Feltham Novices’ Chase last year, a race that will be carrying Kauto Star’s name in honour of the retired chaser this year.  But I’m still not sure if Grands Crus will even be lining up tomorrow.

Captain Chris is actually an interesting one at the prices and is worth an each way shout.  His price has been jumping around quite a bit since winning the Amlin 1965 Chase over a disappointing Finian’s Rainbow in November, and the 2011Arkle champion is surely not a 22/1 prospect with Richard Johnson brimming with confidence after passing the 100 winners mark for the 17th consecutive season last week.  Stamina, again, will be the potential hiccup over distance and in the boggy circumstances.

So that leaves the elephant in the room: Kauto!  Sentiment is enough for most to have a few quid on Kauto Stone to follow in his half-brother’s footsteps, but form points towards him too.  Distance has been shown not to be a problem after his Grade 1 win at Down Royal and the stable/jockey combination of Nicholls and Walsh is in great nick too.  It just seems too good to be true for me, and whilst I will be punching the air if he wins and continues the family’s great success in this race, I think Henderson will get the better of PFN tomorrow, either with Long Run or Jimmy Nesbitt’s Riverside Theatre.

A Unique Day in the Far West Country

Cheltenham is a wonderful place.  I have visited the picturesque Gloucestershire town for a Leyton Orient away match, a night of readings from wartime novel Catch-22 by its author Joseph Heller (easily confused with Ibiza-anthem producer, Pete Heller, he of Big Love­ fame) and I have attended the springtime festival of National Hunt Racing. 

Those three events have all given me some pleasure, but there is no doubt in my mind: a day spent at a race meet within the comforting embrace of Cleeve Hill offers gratification in such huge abundance that it far surpasses the enjoyment derived from standing on the terraces at Whaddon Road watching Orient lose or slumping in the seats of the town hall hearing a writer muse.

When I visited Cheltenham for the Open Meeting a few weeks ago, however, I did not know quite what to expect.   It was, you see, on the one hand a slightly less frantic affair than the March mania of the festival and yet, on the other, an assault on the senses previously unfelt by this blogger.  For on this day, I was a guest of my good friend Tim, a bone fide owner of a racehorse; a racehorse syndicated by the Axom Partnership, currently residing in the Somerset village of Ditcheat, under the tutelage of champion trainer Paul F Nicholls.    The horse in question is a juvenile hurdler by the name of Far West and although Tim’s share of the 3 year old gelding may not be massive, his passion and love for the creature is contagious.  



I was immediately infected by the bug of equine ownership.  Soon after passing through the turnstiles, we were permitted entry to the pre-parade ring.  Here you could see the hoofed participants go from a docile stroll, guided by their stable lads and lasses in front of the convened racing enthusiasts, to a foaming-at-the-mouth warrior, primed and ready for battle.  Right on cue, Nicholls, along with his nearest and dearest Team Ditcheat partners, popped up and gave us a few of his thoughts on the race ahead.  This picture (right) shows your follically-bereft correspondant deep in conversation with trainer & (part) owner.  Exuding enthusiasm, with controlled confidence and calculated competitiveness in equal measure, PFN took us through the card and gave a level of insight that was a privilege to ponder as we strolled with him and Georgie towards the parade ring and the awaiting throng of passionate punters. 

 

Cornelius Lysaght appeared in the corner of one eye, Alan Lee in the other, and cutting through towards us came Ruby Walsh, who exchanged pleasantries with the syndicate members, banter with those more closely acquainted to the Irish National Hunt Champion Jockey and race tactics with his English stable boss.  This was it: race time.

We took our place in one of the O&T bars, and watched the Triumph Hurdle Trial unfold with Far West given a convincing winning ride by Ruby:  http://www.miniurl.com/s/3hR

As the Cheltenham website states: “Nothing matches the experience of having a runner, maybe even a winner, at Cheltenham”. The sentence is, as far as I’m concerned, unfinished, and should really be concluded: “...even if you’re just freeloading off the back of one of your mates.” http://www.cheltenham.co.uk/about/owners-and-trainers/

Ruby Walsh with Far West

The Winners’ Enclosure routine of trophy collection, champagne-accompanied DVD race review and obligatory pat of the triumphant horse, who was soaked with effort-induced perspiration and jettisoning long puffs of steamy breath into the fresh lunchtime air, seemed pretty familiar to the Axom crew.  Far West had won the month before at Chepstow, and went on to win again last weekend in another JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham.   They say bloodstock agent Anthony Bromley never misses an opportunity to ever-so-smugly make his presence felt after one of his finds crosses the winning post first, and it’s fair to say he has been ubiquitous in following Far West towards the trophies in the last two Cheltenham outings, particularly since he tipped the horse up as one of his Bromley's Best Buys in Mark Howards‘s excellent almanac of national hunt racing One Jump Ahead.

 

Miller's Money-Spinner

Watching the various bookmakers’ representatives putting in their prices for the Festival Race was pretty interesting too.  Some made Far West a 14/1 shout, Kate Miller from William Hill was more confident about his chances of taking the Triumph Hurdle proper.  “I think we’ve just seen the winner” was the confident statement she made, handing in a quote of 8/1.  I think I'll trust Kate's judgement, since she provided me with a winning tip at a similar price for later in the day - a Pipe / Scudamore horse called Goulanes, who beat 4/1f Lovcen, Alan King's popular German horse, by over seven lengths into fifth place.

 

I'm sincerely hoping that the success enjoyed by Far West, Tim and the rest of the Axom Syndicate will convince Mrs Palphabet that a small stake in a racehorse is an excellent toe-in-the-water method of broadening my knowledge of, increasing my passion for and multiplying my insight into the sport, without fully burdening the household with the risks associated with an outright foray into thoroughbred acquisition.  Surely that has to be better for our future than a deposit on a house or next year's belated honeymoon!  Until then, however, I will gladly take as many opportunities as I can to hang off the coat tails of others, shamelessly approaching anyone associated with the turf for even the smallest nugget of information in that perennial quest for equine enlightenment.

Current prices for the JCB Triumph Hurdle race can be found here, with Hills now into 6/1 against Far West and Ladbrokes a standout 10/1.

Let's be Frank: Nothing Comes Close

Sitting by the radio, watching the rotating spools of a TDK 90 minute cassette as they consigned the gig of my lifetime to a strip of magnetically coated plastic, I made myself a promise: I would never miss out on anything ever again.  A difficult pledge to adhere to, but one I strive to uphold.

I have since seen Oasis play at Finsbury Park, The City of Manchester and Wembley Stadia, and had a whale of a time in the process.  But that 1996 Knebworth Park performance was the peak of their power and the pinnacle of a Britpop era that punctuated my puberty.  Everything after that, being brazenly and brutally honest, was watching the group in decline.

I openly admit that I enjoy the longevity of following horses that jump over fences and hurdles in the National Hunt arena year after year, but sometimes their demise can also be protracted.  Whilst the flat may not always lavish upon us the same depth of character that its winter/spring counterpart delivers, it is difficult to argue against the pure, unabated qualities of the Classic generation. 

So, not to miss out, I went to Doncaster a few weeks ago hoping to see history being rewritten before my eyes as Camelot seized the triple-crown.   I wasn’t convinced though, and layed the Coolmore colt to the tune of about £200 [I’m aware it should probably be spelt “laid” but I prefer my way when it comes to betting].   Yes, I can say “I was there”, but this experience didn’t fill the bon viveur void that I’ve been searching for since 1996.

It mattered not.  Seeing Frankel in the flesh at Ascot last year was my Knebworth.

See if you can you spot me in the winner's enclosure with Frankel et al

 

Heading back to Berkshire tomorrow to bid him farewell, I have read, listened and watched as journalists, pundits and enthusiasts discuss the issues.  The sub-plots are enchanting:  Will the ground be a problem for him?  Is Cirrus des Aigles the toughest opponent he is yet to encounter?  Isn’t it fitting that Nathaniel, whom Frankel met in his first race at Newmarket in 2010, should bookend his old foe’s career at a track where he has had much success himself?  What will St Nicholas Abbey be making of it all?  Has Excelebration become so accustomed to being whipped by Frankel that, rather than celebrating his Queen Elizabeth II Stakes victory tomorrow, he’ll be found back in his box, miserably leafing through a copy of 50 Shades of Grey to satisfy some kind of equine sadomasochism?

Most readers of this blog will be familiar with most of that already.  So, with only four competitors lining up alongside “The Freak”, discounting stable mate and pacemaker Bullet Train, this is how I see the result panning out tomorrow:

1.      Frankel – I can’t bear the thought of him & Queally flopping.  He will win.

2.      Nathaniel – I love Buick and have fond memories of his King George win here, after which Gosden’s words to the media in the wake of Rewilding’s death provided a particularly poignant moment.  I think Nathaniel can bounce back from enforced absence at Longchamp and overturn the rivalry with Cirrus des Aigles, with whom I expect him to be jousting for the runner-up spot.

3.      Cirrus des Aigles – I was hoping Christophe Soumillon would come over to exorcise his Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe demons, but maybe he is still bitter about his huge fine in this race last year... although probably not.   Olivier Peslier clearly knows how to guide “Cloud of the Eagles” to victory but I’m sure he will settle for a win on board exciting sprinter Wizz Kid instead.

4.      Pastorius – Tipped up at 10-1 (without Frankel) in the Weekender by Paul Kealy, he’s had three wins and a place in his last four outings back home in Germany.  16 years ago his jockey, Frankie Dettori, "did a Hughsie" at Ascot (1996 certainly was an eventful year) and many will rightly see his partnership with this course-specialist rider as a real positive.  All my sentiment and emotion has already been used up for this race though, so I’m sticking with the above Trifecta.

5.      Master of Hounds – Figures of 3181 coming into this and only catches the eye as he’s in the hands of Ryan Moore.

6.      Bullet Train – One of the best pacemakers out there, but that’s it for now.  Behind every great golfer is a clued-up caddy, and Bullet Train pulls out the correct club for Frankel every time.  

Even on testing, boggy ground coming round Swinley Bottom, I expect Tom Queally to be characteristically calm and composed on the back of Frankel, with whom he has developed a beautifully harmonious rhythm.   I’m looking forward to Queally opening up the son of Galileo in front of the packed grandstands and winning by a decent margin.  Five lengths or more is trading at 2.62 (about 13/8) on Betfair at the moment and I think that’s a fair price for a 2pt+ stake. 

But my main advice for the race, clichéd as it may be, is to savour the final outing of a living legend performing at the zenith of his abilities.  Sing along when he holds the microphone in your direction, hold your lighters aloft and say “I was there”.  And if you were not actually there, don’t fret – my mum told me in 1996 that I’d get another chance... I did, and you will.  It might just take a few years, so Roll With It.

Betting on Golf to Compile a Palphabet Portfolio

Ah the weekend.  Time to leave the responsibilities of selling medical device products behind me and embark upon a bumper three-day break where I can fully focus on the markets.. Particularly since my wife-to-be, Mrs Palphabet, is away on her hen-do, most probably baking cakes and singing hymns with absolutely no male-strippers in sight.

I want to talk about golf. 

I have never broken a three-figure score.  My dad, my younger brother and my little brother are all decent players, but over the past month I have won more money gambling on the game than they have.  I am no longer the black sheep of the family.  I am the black bull of white-ball betting.  I am blowing through my ringed nose and brushing at the dust with my hefty hoof, weighed down by wonga. 

The past month's Palphabet P&L

When I compile my weekly golf portfolio, I religiously do two things.  I wouldn’t say that I am necessarily religious, but when it comes to golf, I’ve found myself becoming more spiritual as the competitions roll on and the prophet of profit becomes more apparent.

Firstly, on a Tuesday, I download and listen (at least once) to the William Hill Golf Podcast, which is expertly put together by Lee Phelps ( @leephelps ), hosted by Dave Kelner ( @dkelner ) and superbly supported by Mike Grenham ( @mgrenham ).  I have to listen to it a couple of times because I normally plug in the Dr Dre earphones when I bed down, and I usually fall asleep to the laid-back groove of the theme tune, not because the lads are all northern and their easy accents soothe me into a slumber.  You can find the podcast here.

Next, I bound eagerly into my local ‘paper shop and pick up Wednesday’s RP, where Steve Palmer’s piece(s) provide unmissable insight into the US and European tour competitions.  Occasionally I miss the copy in the newsagents and have to beg my local Ladbrokes or JenningsBet to let me have the back pages at the end of the day.  I think they find me slightly odd.  This article shows why I am anything but.. although maybe makes SP look a bit weird!

I see these activities as a ritualistic must.  The optional extras come by way of my mate Tom Clarke’s excellent Golf Monthly column, which can be found here, and through discussion with my pal @paolobow, who is a keen follower of Mr. Jeremy Chapman ( @jeremychapman3 ), an authority on the game from back in the day, who still comes up with the goods.

Armed with all of this information, it’s time to make my selections.  When the stars collide and more than one of the above pick the same player, I get rather excited.  It’s time to go in big.  Otherwise I basically follow Palmer’s selections, although maybe not quite as heavily as he advises large stakes on short-priced market leaders, and then supplement with a couple of my favourite golfers.   For courses that demand accuracy off the tee, I like Westwood and Garcia.  When the par-fives are plentiful and power is a prerequisite, but precision is preferred I might go for Nicolas Colsaerts or Louis Oosthuizen.  For wide fairways that sympathise with flamboyancy and inconsistency, I like Alviro Quiros and Rafael Cabrera-Bello, who often start at big prices and are very tradeable if they get off to a good start, better still if they make the cut.  Likewise, I often back John Daly at huge three-figure prices and hope he puts together a good round on the Thursday.   Seung-Yul Noh is a genuine favourite of mine.. I tend to back him every week he gets involved, regardless of the track, which probably isn't particularly wise.  He’ll bring home the bacon soon though, I’m sure.

Following your favourite golfers on Twitter can really help you communicate with the game.. as this snapshot of Seung-Yul Noh's timeline demonstrates so perfectly.

 

As well as the characters involved, the statistics available are great too.  Ball-striking is one I really enjoy looking at.  'What golfer can’t strike a ball well?' I used to ask.  Well, this is actually a hybrid stat combining figures for driving distance, driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation (getting on the putting surface with two putts to make par) and is a gem for making your choices.  In fact, think of stats as your punting caddy, whispering words of wisdom in your ear, encouraging you to attack that tough pin position.

 At Kiawah Island for this year’s PGA, for instance, distance was very important.  With 7,800 yards to cover, so was scrambling – saving par when you miss finding the green-in-regulation.  Rory McIlroy looked huge at 19-1 given that these statistical strengths are key features of his rock-solid game.  Tipped up by Steve Palmer, Dave Kelner, Mike Grenham and Jeremy Chapman, what more could a punter ask for?  I expected to turn to my horoscope and read "Get on R-Mac, you crazy half-man half-beast Sagittarian.. what other pointers do you need??!" 

He won by eight shots, destroying the field at the tough Pete Dye designed golf course. 

Ror' on the Shore returned more than layers bargained for

In-play golf is great for gambling too, as the market often overreacts and regards a lead going into the final round as a reason to send the odds nosediving towards odds-on.  Laying Adam Scott at the start of the final round of this year’s Open, and going in again throughout his excellent front-nine, meant that (although not winning much when you include the money on top-5 finishes), I came away from the heavy betting weekend unscathed.  Backers were still supporting him at 1.05 (1-20) on Betfair, trying to take advantage of 5% returns unavailable with high-street banks, but finding themselves stuck between their very own Northern Rock and a hard place (if they backed each-way).   It seems that most golfers wobble when entering the final round of a tournament at the top of the leaderboard, unless their name starts with a 'T' and ends with 'iger'.

How about no, Scott

 

Opposing Jim Furyk at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational at 2.36 won me £71.85, covering 3 points worth of initial investment as he failed to capitalise on a strong position.  Similarly, going against Robert Garrigus at the Canadian Open meant I won £3.20 after commission, rather than losing well in excess of a hundred quid.

Of course, the tactic of laying a short-priced leader doesn’t always work out, especially when the players you’re praying will fail are fully-paid up members of the God-squad.  As I said before, I’m not religious, and sometimes that counts against me.  Here, I tried to lay the hell (sorry Zach) out of Johnson, and credit to the lad he did his best to help me in the exciting playoff with Troy Matteson, finding the water to the left side of the hole before eventually winning with a wonderful 190 yard 6-iron bunker shot that cost me over £400.

ZJ and Gay caused a bad day and put pay to a profitable play

 

As well as following the Twitter handles I've already plugged, I recommend using the Golf Channel's website and app to stay abreast of proceedings and using www.oddschecker.com to get the best prices, as they can vary enormously between firms and exchanges, especially when backing each-way.  Finally, find a few like-minded golf-betting buddies with whom you can sing the various tunes that Sky Sports use to punctuate their golf coverage - great "beds", as I believe they're called in the broadcasting game.

***

Tonight, as I type, Roberto Castro has just aced the 14th, Sergio Garcia and Vijay Singh are right in contention at The Barclays, held at Bethpage State Park in New York, and Nick Watney looks to be the lay of the weekend.  Tiger is battling through pain, looking ominously placed and smiling with the aforementioned bible-basher Johnson, whom he used to (allegedly) torment with pornography when they roomed together on tour.

All this enjoyment from a game that Happy Gilmore once described as requiring “goofy pants and a fat arse”.  I enjoy playing and watching golf, but I love betting on it.

Palphabet's Summer of Love... Loving It

It’s been an interesting summer at Palphabet HQ, dominated by both the attending and planning of stag weekends and weddings.  My brother got hitched, my pal Mowells endured a highland game themed send-off into marital bliss and just this weekend my old housemate Dicky aka Turps / Uncle Fester / Dot Cotton etc tied the knot up in Doncaster.  Love is well and truly in the air.

Tossing the Caber in Scotland

Dicky - A Man of a Hundred Faces

This would normally leave little time for keyboard-bashing, but coupled with the fact that I am also getting married next month, and it’s been pretty difficult to sit   down and write anything on here.  Then I saw that Scott Ferguson was flexing his influential blog-community muscles, perhaps in frustrated response to his country’s dismal performance thus far at the Olympics, so I thought I better post something.

I’m off to the Olympic Park this afternoon to watch Andy Murray v Roger Federer on the big screen before heading into the stadium for the finals of the women’s 400m, the men’s hammer throw, and the blue riband event, the men’s 100m dash.  Do they still make Blue Riband chocolate bars?  I enjoyed those.

Watching Mo Farah on TV last night was emotional – he was on the bridle the whole way round and on that final lap demonstrated a rapid turn of foot with such assurance that my 4pt stake at evens on Betfair was never in doubt.  My pokes into the SPOTY market also look in reasonable shape.  Yes, Wiggins appears a certainty, but his price has drifted from 1.12 to 1.42 over the past few days, and I simultaneously layed him and snapped up £37 of Mo at 24s, which should provide ample trading opportunity as the months roll on and the collective idiocy of the British public phone up and vote for a Ryan Giggs-esque character.

The Olympics on the BBC have been wonderful.  The theme tune is sublime and the coverage has been a joy to behold.  Kudos also to the Sky+ team, who have updated their iPhone App with the requisite BBC channels dedicated to broadcasting every event of the games in a show of stunning broadcasting commitment. 

But one word of dissatisfaction.  Have you noticed this not just creeping, but dive-bombing into the audio commentary: “I’m sat watching the handball...” or “I’m stood here with so-and-so” ?

It’s “sitting” and “standing”.  Mark Chapman is excellent in so many ways, but his insistence on using past-tense terminology to describe something he is currently doing is irritating at best, abysmal at worst.  I’m all for regional presenters reaching the pinnacle of their profession, and I’m no fan of received pronunciation, but this lack of respect for the English language is grating.  Beeb: Sort it out.

***

In more positive news, I’ve been delighted to see the return to form of Tom Segal over the past few weeks.  His Glorious Goodwood form has been gloriously good and has provided a couple of much needed wins to counter a few weeks of dearth.  Laying Adam Scott in the Open felt like a massive win – I was exposed to the tune of over £500 if he had prevailed – but I was also gutted for Scotty and in reality my only “winnings” from that event were “not losing a monkey”.  He has bags of talent and played beautifully for 68 holes on the Lancashire links.  Presuming he’s reading this, I would advise him to ditch both the ridiculous long putter and his caddy.  He has the grit to bounce back and compete again in next week’s US PGA, for which he’s trading at 33-1.  Louis Oosthuizen is currently in contention at the WGC Firestone but a six-and-a-half-grand windfall looks out of reach following Rafael C-B’s horror show third round seven-over-par yesterday.

Finally, a word for Frankel.  In his season as a four-year-old I have had my biggest and smallest ever single bet on him.  Whether at 1/3 or 1/20, it's nice to be on!  Both gave me huge pleasure and I’m certainly intrigued and exhilarated by the prospect of seeing him step up in trip.  His wonder-sire, Galileo, must be very proud, if you permit me a momentary anthropomorphic indulgence.

Palphabet's Day on the Derby Downs

May has been an excellent month on the exchanges for Palphabet - and the Lucky 31 bets that I used to eschew in favour of a straightforward accumulator have proved a revelation.  Golf tipsters Steve Palmer and Jeremy Chapman from the Racing Post, as well as podcasting punters Dave Kelner and Mike Grenham have also inspired me to four profitable weeks off the tee: a turn in fortune that I attribute wholly to the upbeat nature of the William Hill podcast's theme tune.

The tunes of Eurovision were not quite so successful, as I took the view that Sweden were too short at a shade over evens, but I made up for it later that evening (and also recouped losses on the Greyhound Derby) by backing Carl Froch to win by KO, laying the fight against Lucien Bute to go the distance and correctly predicting that by whatever means, the bout would be won by the Cobra.


I also unsuccessfully layed England in both test matches at short odds and won just under what the Americans would call "a quarder" by greening up on the London Mayoral elections after trading the market during last year's captial city riots.  Profiting out of social misery is not out of the question for Palphabet.


I would now, however, like to turn my attention to this weekend's Derby, beginning by detailing an experience I had in Epsom just a fortnight ago...

A moody morning on the Downs.  Click to enlarge and see the horses

Upon arrival at Epsom Downs racecourse for a recent medical device conference, where I was exhibiting titanium orthopaedic implants and precision-made powertools used for small-bone surgery (I do have to make a living somehow), I was treated to a panoramic view of the arena for this weekend’s Derby meeting free of the funfairs, fanfare and flutterers that annually frequent Surrey’s chalky formations in early June.

Avert your eyes northbound back towards London and from this vantage point you are afforded breathtaking views of the capital’s skyline, with the unfinished but still imposing Shard piercing up towards the sun from London Bridge.  It prompts a dizzying, rollercoaster ride of emotions for any racegoer, even if on this particular day the only horses in sight were those being given a gentle ride out from one of the 13 local stables, where trainers such as Michael Attwater, Roger Ingram or Pat Phelan ply their trade.

At these work conferences, there is often a fair bit of hanging around, so I took the opportunity to venture outside onto the stands and make a phone call.  Talking and walking I realised what was happening all around me: workmen busy erecting a marquee, a couple of young ladies carrying boxes of promotional literature from one building to another, grass being carefully mown, glossy white paint applied to railings, flowers being planted, the Investec Zebra trotting down a flight of stairs - Derby preparations in full swing.


I walked over to a chap in a cap.  His name was Shamus.  Some know him as "the flower-pot man" but, although his pruning and planting was evident around me, his knowledge stretched beyond petunias, and his passion was immediately Palphabetically palpable!   He's been off for 10 months with a back injury that has prevented him from carrying out his many tasks around the course and now many of the young executives wrongly "think I'm the new boy!"  But that could not be further from the truth.

Seamus is over the back there (left pic) and won't thank me for keeping the dying daffodil in shot! The flowers on the right will be resplendent in red, white and blue on Saturday

I chatted to Shamus for fifteen minutes or so, as he talked of the famous track's Derby course: the immediate ascent taking the horses and riders up a 180-foot incline, "the same height as Nelson's Column", he told me.  Undulations that wouldn't look out of place on a links golf course, with cambers forcing the contesting 3-year-old thoroughbreds from high to low ground while testing stamina, composure and heart.  Tattenham Corner's sweeping bend, a sight that Seamus has been able to see from his bedroom window since he was a little boy over half a century ago.  Then the straight, that home run of dipping turf, dripping in Derby day atmosphere.  Where Lester Piggott so often got his tactics spot-on, and where last year, Mickael Barzalona came from the back on Pour Moi, having hit 36 in-running on Betfair.   Shamus said he was so busy organising the buckets of water to douse the exhausted equine combatants last summer, that he didn't even notice the now iconic celebration inexplicably enacted by the youthfully enthusiastic Frenchman.  He wasn't too busy to show me Barzalona's winning jersey (above right), though, and could vividly recollect his favourite Derby winner of all time without hesitation: "Troy, 1979". 


I got out into the middle of the track and looked back towards Tattenham Corner from the winning post:

This Saturday, I am hoping John Gosden and William Buick can follow up last year's St Leger win with Masked Marvel, by overturning the 2000 Guineas winner and clear favourite, Camelot, who is best priced 4-6 with Paddy Power.   As I started writing, Ballydoyle's hand was exceptionally strong, although with Imperial Monarch looking bound for Chantilly.  At the final declarations this morning, however, Aidan O'Brien's initial quintet of runners, which I thought would be reduced to a 'mere' quartet comprising Astrology, Father of Science, Tower Rock alongside their Classic-winning stablemate, is now just a double act:

The current Derby betting - click to enlarge

I have layed the market leader for one main reason.  Namely that Joseph O'Brien talked of his Guineas tactics at the weekend in an excellent interview with David Walsh in the Sunday Times, and I'm just not convinced I buy it.  Camelot only won by a neck from a field that was not exactly drawing superlatives from the lips of the pundits and whilst I acknowledge that JOB is a talented individual, who seems to possess the calmness of Roger Federer, with a similar ability to keep the sweat at bay, this is his sternest test yet and he will not want to get stuck at the rear, even if he does harbour thoughts of a MB-style fist-pump (unlikely).  

I was more than happy to back Frankel two weeks ago at 3-10, in the same way that Big Buck's looks value at 1-4 and Black Caviar more competitive than all cash ISAs, often returning a 5% return-on-investment when bookies down under have been generous enough to offer 1-20.  The Derby is different, though, and I'd rather oppose the tide of support for the father-son champion elect.


Having said all of that, Camelot is a classy unbeaten Montjeu colt boasting unbeaten figures of 11-1 with a blistering turn of foot and will undoubtedly stay the trip, with Lester Piggott himself saying that all young Joseph has to do is "steer him round the course" and many quarters of the press seeing it as a foregone conclusion, especially in a field with the fewest number of racers in over 100 years! 


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/9297999/The-Derby-2012-Three-reasons-why-Coolmores-thrilling-colt-Camelot-will-win-at-Epsom.html  


Still, at that price I'll happily be taking him on and have ploughed into Thought Worthy, covering all other eventualities with the initial Camelot lay: 

Ryan Moore, who was scathing in his attack on what he perceived as unworthy entries in this race last year, when he disappointed on the Queen's horse, Carlton House, rides the other Coolmore colt Astrology.  His sire, Galileo, gave us the aforementioned Frankel, his full brother Noble Mission and last year's Derby runner-up Treasure Beach.  Moore is leading the way in the Top Flat Jockey 2012 market and will enjoy the added freedom running in Camelot's shadow.

I was always going to tip Thought Worthy, wasn't I?!

That Noble Mission was beaten at Newmarket by Thought Worthy gives hope that with Buick's bad experience round this track last year (when he finished 8th with Masked Marvel) and his additional years earning his living in the saddle over Joseph O'Brien, he might be able to follow up his 2011 classic win with victory here.   I should declare an interest - I have backed Buick for top jock 2012 and highlighted Thought Worthy as one to look out for in a previous post: http://palphabet.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/part-2-memories-of-national-hunt-2011.html 

Bonfire, I hear, is somewhat of a nutter.  You'd imagine his twitter account to resemble the hilarious musings of @weirdhorse but connections have been playing it down, and Andrew Balding's Dante Stakes hero has already put the O'Briens firmly in their place once this season, when Ernest Hemmingway, also of Galileo, was 14 lengths back in last place at York.  The last time I was told to be wary of a headcase horse was when Sanctuaire was partnered by Daryl Jacob in Ruby Walsh's absence at Sandown Park.  Many said that DJ would not be able to handle the horse's temperament.  He cruised to a massive 17-length win over Grade 1 winner Somersby.

Main Sequence made the front page of the Racing Post last week when connections bullishly staked their claim for the Derby after success in the Lingfield all-weather trial over the same 1m 4f trip from Shantaram, and another contender on Saturday, Cavaleiro, who was clearly beaten by 6 lengths and remains a 66-1 shot.  Cavaleiro is partnered at Epsom by red-hot Hayley Turner, fresh from receiving her Glamour Magazine Sportswoman of the Year gong this week.  Who can argue with that?!

Mickdaam, who has been relatively heavily raced and has formlines over another of Andrew Baldings, Minimise Risk (having won by just over a length on May 10 at Chester) completes the single-figure line-up with Rugged Cross, who finished third, but only a short distance behind Thought Worthy and Noble Mission over 1m 2f at Newmarket.

Rumours of Frankie Dettori's retirement from the sport were quickly quashed on Twitter yesterday but nevertheless, his absence will be felt this weekend, as some fresher faces grimace in an attempt to take this highly coveted crown.

***

A cursory mention - it is the rider's considerable experience (J Murtagh) and gut feeling that leads me to fancy Vow (1pt) in tomorrow's Oaks.