Nightmare end to a Whirlwind Week

Wow. Yesterday’s Super Sunday was a day of sport that would have warranted a national holiday, had Sunday not already been designated as a day of rest for most of the western world.  Messi putting Neymar in his place, Villa unable to defend corners, Phil Jones showing a good turn of foot but a suspect temperament in front of goal, City responding to United’s lunchtime pressure in a way befitting the champions elect.  Add to that Big Buck’s performance on Saturday, Raya Star franking Rock on Ruby’s form over hurdles and RVB crashing out of the PDC last night, and it’s been a weekend for sports fans to savour.

Unless you were laying bets on the exchanges that saw you in this position by Sunday night:

Period: Last 3 Hours Last 6 Hours Just For Today From Yesterday Last 7 days Last 30 days Last 3 Months Download to Spreadsheet ? (relates to event settlement date) (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)

Golf: -£167.53 | Horse Racing: -£124.17 | Snooker: £177.78 | Soccer: -£655.57 | Special Bets: -£25.52 | Tennis: -£58.81 | Tote: | Total P&L: -£853.82

I am deliberately looking back over the past 30 days rather than the past 24 hours – I’d like to think this is because I take a long-term view of my trading and focus on moving averages rather than short-term fluctuations. The truth is I daren’t look at my isolated weekend P&L for fear that it may result in my Christmas having an outlook of pessimism similar to that of a battery turkey.

The Australian wallet returned just over a ton of profit thanks to IJP prevailing down under, returning some solace off a £17 stake at just a couple of points shy of 9-1 but that has done little to lift my spirits during this supposed time of good will to all men.

I have, however, got some bets on for the yuletide period, and I want to carry on testing my hypothesis that you see a higher than average number of red cards in mid-week televised football matches played under poor weather conditions featuring teams at opposite ends of the skill spectrum or with something significant to play for.  My optimism for profit has been boosted by this schedule of televised fixtures:

Mon 19	Crystal Palace v Birmingham (7.45pm)	7.30pm	Championship
Tue 20	Blackburn v Bolton (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League
Wed 21	Wigan v Liverpool (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League
Thu 22	Tottenham v Chelsea (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League

The odds offered against a sending off in those matches are all between 3/1 and 5/1, and as such, I will be looking closely at tonight’s match.  Crystal Palace and Birmingham have just one red card between them so far this season and are separated by just one place and one point in the league so far this season.   Birmingham’s sole sending off came, however, in a match away to Cardiff, who are above them in the Championship and will have tested their defence enough to draw Curtis Davies into a last-man challenge that denied Kenny Miller a goalscoring opportunity [despite replays proving the decision made by referee Anthony Taylor to be incorrect]. 

http://www.birminghammail.net/birmingham-sport/birmingham-city-fc/birmingham-city-fc-news/2011/12/05/birmingham-city-boss-blames-curtis-davies-sending-off-for-defeat-97319-29894224/ 

Whether or not Crystal Palace’s attack will cause the same problems is a moot point.  A swift glance at the prowess of these teams in front of goal does not reveal a potent strike rate for either side and a red card is currently trading at fairly priced 9/2 on Betfair. 

http://www.football-league.co.uk/page/ClubShooting/0,,10794~20117,00.html

Might leave this one alone and wait for some more clear indicators in the other mid-week fixtures.  The biggest danger after a weekend of losses like I’ve just had is to dive straight back in... isn’t it?!

Finally, thanks to radio 5 Live, who had me on their racing show last week - it was an honour to be on the airwaves amongst such exalted company as Cornelius Lysaght and Mick Fitzgerald with Mark Pougatch.  Thanks also to Chris Graham and the www.sportingbet.com podcast boys for the plug - looking forward to more media appearances in the new year!

For those that didn't catch me on the Denman show - here's the audio http://tvider.com/view/73280 

Palphabet Relishes the Pressure of High-Profile Personality Props

Since my last post, celebrities have flocked to follow my Twitter handle at an alarming rate that has left me honoured, humbled and hopeful for a future in full time micro blogging.  I must say that I use the term “celebrities” with a looseness normally associated with the lips of wartime ship-sinkers.   These tweeters are household names only in the houses of men who probably live on their own, watching sport and staring at numbers on screens looking for value bets, but their encouragement has still done wonders to boost my enthusiasm for and dedication to the Palphabet cause: to move full-time into a life dominated by nothing but sporting enjoyment. 

I am also grateful for the kind comments from other readers who might not edit a national newspaper or represent the views of a multinational bookmaker!

The facts and figures on my account over the past couple of weeks seem to reflect the additional vigour I have for that cause.  Here's my P&L for December so far:

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)

Football: £850.86 | Golf: -£123.87 | Horse Racing: -£383.97 | Snooker: £177.78 | Tote: | Total P&L: £520.80

The football has centred around backing red cards in high-octane, wet-weathered, midweek games (Fulham v Liverpool and Chelsea v Manchester City), and the racing, despite delivering inauspicious losses, includes a significant win on Gauvain last week who, tipped by both Pricewise AND James Boyle (http://betbuddy.mobi/ ), duly obliged with a Huntingdon victory at nearly 7-1.  As I said at the time, when those two tipsters agree on something, and given that Boyle's mission is to out-tip Segal, you just have to take note!

Horse Racing > : 2m4f Grd2 Chs > Gauvain Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Bets

Selection Odds Stake (£) Liability (£) Bid type Placed Matched (GMT) Profit/loss (£) Gauvain 7.6 51.39 Back 08-Dec-11 10:20 08-Dec-11 10:20 339.17

Let’s face it, those who risk thousands of pounds on the financial markets, researching the FTSE100 and AIM market movements, studying the 12-month moving averages of share prices and making decisions based around P/E ratios, EPS figures and director deals still very often end up losing their hard-earned dosh.  Yet these people are permitted, nay encouraged, to sit in pubs and at dinner parties, waxing lyrical about their investment portfolio and diversified strategies whilst those of us with a penchant for punting on sport are looked upon with pity and disdain by those who are convinced we should be attending GA meetings on a weekly basis.  

*****

A few things have made me happy to be flying the Palphabet flag over the past couple of weeks:

·         Denman – yes, I may have placed a couple of small antepost wagers on the Lexus and next year’s Gold Cup on The Tank – but I’m glad he’s been retired healthy, and his memory lives on both in the stables at Ditcheat and in my own household through my cat, who we named after the gorgeous gelding.

The Tank in feline form, wearing the famous colours of the planey2k stable

·         Matt Chapman – I’ve developed a man-crush on the ATR presenter – he’s articulate, amusing and handles live television with more aplomb than X-Factor, I’m a Celeb and BB presenters put together.

Chapman driving the girls wild

·         Judd Trump – Man-Crush subject #2.  I tipped him on Twitter and backed him with £30 at 14.5 on Betfair, but I also like his playboi banter off the baize and his happy-go-lucky attitude to life.

Judd Trumps them all with his playboi potting

·         George Porter – the final object of my homoerotic man-crush desires – his drop of the shoulder against the dumbfounded Exeter City defence was a joy to behold, and I hope he’s able to stay with Orient for a while longer yet.

Georgeous George ...phwooaarrr

·         Gary Neville – no, I don’t have a crush on him, but his scutiny of Barcelona’s footballing philosophy on last night’s MNF had me reaching for the tissues – truly insightful stuff that makes Andy Gray’s analysis look as modern as his view on women.  If he can learn how to stand still whilst presenting the show, he will have it all.

Gary Neville looking uncharacteristically still...in a still photograph

These little things in life make me happy, and keep me focused on my pursuit of a world dominated by alrightness.   It’s out there somewhere!