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Sunday 26 February 2012

Wayne - King is good for you


Readers of my recent festival preview will have noticed that Alan King featured throughout, and I was delighted to hear Tom Segal picking out Wayne Hutchinson as one of his favourite jockeys when I finally got around to watching his Morning Line appearance on tape this fine Sunday dawn.


At Chepstow yesterday, Hutch provided King with a 5-1 winner in the shape of Oh Crick, who was sporting blinkers for the first time at a track where his trainer had drawn a blank in 45 previous attempts over the past 843 days. I didn't know all this when I placed a 1pt stake on the horse, and this was King's only runner at the Monmouthshire course yesterday, but it gives me a thrill to discover such facts in retrospect.


Elsewhere, Grumeti showed again that when he doesn’t end up on his nose, he wins.  With a rating of 154 and on the up, Grumeti, under Choc Thornton, went off clear favourite and duly dispatched challengers in the Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle over 2m.  Paul Nicholls’s Dodging Bullets provided the only real opposition inside the home straight but Grumeti was cruising and proved the 1.51 Betfair SP correct.

King currently boasts a 51% RTF figure, meaning that across the past fortnight, just over half of his runners have Run to Form (within 5lb of their RP rating) and the newspaper felt fit to highlight his success in Saturday races worth £10k or more with this eye-catching headline:

All in all, I'm delighted with my position on Medermit for the Ryanair, excited about the prospects of West End Rocker (and to a lesser extent Hold on Julio, who I have not backed ante post) and hope King, and Wayne Hutchinson's good fortune continues as the festival draws inexorably closer.
DP

Minsk Mix Up
Oh.. before I forget.. isn't this funny - Minsk has been being talked up as one to watch since switching from long, flat races to jumps, and I had a point on him for the JCB Triumph Hurdle.  Baby Mix disappointed last time out but I thought 23 looked big about the grey gelding, so I backed him ante post yesterday too.  Minsk failed to deliver at Kempton and is now double the odds I got him at, whilst Mix (one-third of a Saturday afternoon Paddy Brennan threesome) has been cut to 7-1.  The favourite is now the aforementioned Alan King trained Grumeti (6-1), who I have not had anything on!



Tuesday 21 February 2012

Go With Your Gut


I read recently that Tom Segal, the legendary prophetic inhabitant of the Racing Post’s Pricewise pages doesn’t like to spend excessive time poring over the form when advising punters where to put their pound.

"X" Marks the Spot - Quickfire Tipping from the Gut
Taking a similar approach, and after a few indicative national hunt trials, I turned to page 24 of Sunday’s ‘paper and quickly marked out my favourite ante-post fancies for the forthcoming few fortnights, as I prepare for back-to-back festival Fridays at Cheltenham and Aintree.  I've then gone through the selections and made some brief notes in an attempt to justify my initial gut feelings. Let me know what you think.




Cheltenham

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Cinders and Ashes (10-1) Donald McCain's novice hurdler got off to a winning start to his career on the NH flat scene before coming 5th in last year's festival Bumper.  Reversed the form with an impressive nine-length victory over Nicky Henderson's Keys at Aintree before Christmas and whilst Steps to Freedom's stats of 1F1-0111 look ominous, I'm comfortable with the fact that Cinders jumped off the page at me.

Arkle – Sprinter Sacre (6-4) This horse is in my head because Mark "Couch" Winstanley tipped him up in the RP a few weeks back for a characteristically low-key 10pt stake at a much bigger priced.  SS has impressed ever since.

Champion Hurdle – Hurricane Fly (4-5) / Binocular (8-1) exacta - Like many, I have the hots for H-Fly, who looks a beauty and has beaten all who stand in his way in this contest that would give "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" a run for its money with regards to lead actor & supporting cast.  A son of Montjeu, Fly's figures of 1111-11 make this look like a foregone conclusion but I like the value play of adding the inconsistent 2010 Champion Hurdler Binocular to a [reverse]exacta following his impromptu win at the weekend.

Mares’ Hurdle – Quevega (8-11) She's the female version of Big Buck's - banker.  Having said that, I will place an unmatched bet and let it ride on the exchange just in case Voler La Vedette is around the 28-1 mark leading by a few lengths going over the last.  Unaccompanied is heading straight to Aintree and gives this mare affair the miss.

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle & Albert Bartlett  – Fingal Bay (9-2 and 7-1 respectively) The unbeaten Fingal looks a good prospect for the future and I backed him a few months ago for both these races following success in November at Cheltenham.  I still think these prices are fair although the shorter price for the Neptune suggests that's where trainer Philip Hobbs is aiming him so I'm glad I got him at 6.4 on Betfair.

RSA Chase – Grands Crus (9-4) / Invictus (12-1) exacta - Assuming Crus doesn't line up on Friday for the Gold Cup, you have to fancy last year's World Hurdle runner-up to continue the flawless example of jumping showed on Boxing Day at Kempton Park.  Pair up the short price about Grands Crus with in-form Alan King's Invictus, who was immediately cut for this race from 33-1 and 50-1 in places to as short as 6-1 now but still available at 12s.

Queen Mother Champion Chase – Sizing Europe (11-10) I had Henry de Bromhead's defending champion at 9-1 last year and like Hurricane Fly & Big Buck's, he looks likely to regain his crown this year.  Cost Sportingbet a fortune when winning the Tingle Creek in December, forcing the bookmaker to return all losing bets (I got my £50 back on Wishfull Thinking and stuck it all on Kauto Star for the King George, which was enjoyable).  He has the hoodoo over most of his rivals but I might go for a value bet on Somersby or add him to a forecast with Sizing.

Ryanair – Medermit (9-1) à Let’s not forget, as well as Invictus, Alan King also had wins this weekend with Lovcen and Balder Succes, who can be backed at 30 on Betfair for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.  Everywhere I look I seem to see King's name, so I was ecstatic to be awoken by the news this morning, just hours after I put it on Twitter, that Tom Segal also picked Medermit as his Ryanair ante-post selection.  A case of Pricewise following Palphabet perhaps?? Cue price crash.  His performance at Ascot this weekend was gallant, recovering well from a mistake he ran Riverside Theatre all the way to the line, and I've got cold feet about backing Jimmy Nesbitt's headline grabber at reactionary prices.  Rubi Light has been hacking up on Irish turf that wouldn't look out of place on a 1970s second-division football pitch, and a lesser horse would have crashed out after landing on top of a Gowran Park fence on  Saturday.  There's no doubt Rubi has plenty in the tank, but with a dry, sunny March in store, I think he'll end up as a BF in the Ryanair at Cheltenham.

Will Minsk "dig" deep for the JCB Trophy?
Triumph Hurdle – Minsk (7-1)  Balder Succes (14-1 for this race) is probably 30 for the Novices’ as King needs to decide whether to run him over longer distance against more experienced company, including stablemate Grumeti (10-1 here).  I had Grandouet for the JCB Triumph last year after a decent couple of warm-up experiences, and was left disappointed but I remember reading a few people, including Segal, saying Minsk was one to follow for the season.

World Hurdle – Big Buck’s (8-13) I don't need to say anything about Buck's.  Even if he picks up the Ditcheat cough, he'll be absolutely fine come St Patrick's Thursday.

Already Advised

Gold Cup – Kauto Star (7-2) recommended at 4-1 - Long Run did nothing [apart from win] to convince me to betray my heart and believe!  The bookies seemed quick to cut a bit of their liability on Kauto too

National Hunt Challenge Cup – Soll (8-1) recommended at 12-1 - R Walsh & WP Mullins are both bullish about this 7 year-old chestnut gelding, who provided Willie with the fastest ton of seasonal winners in Ireland when chasing over 2m4f at Down Royal earlier this month.  I've had 2pts e/w at 12s, a bit more at 9s and would like to think that Soll, sired by Presenting, will bring home this 4-mile cup for half-brother and recent retiree Denman

Aintree

Grand National – West End Rocker (20-1 on Ladbrokes and Betfair) - When the weights were announced for the National, I looked down the list and straight away fancied West End Rocker.  As already mentioned, I have subsequently had Alan King's name ringing around my ears.  WER didn't just win the trial over the Grand National fences in December, he absolutely destroyed Niche Market and the rest of the field in the Becher Handicap Chase with Wayne Hutchinson on board.  Granted, the ground was heavy, but I like the price and wonder if Robert Thornton might take him round in April, especially since King's only other entry, Hold on Julio, won under Hutch from chasing veteran Neptune Collonges at Sandown during Choc's injury-induced absence.

Well, that certainly took longer to write than it did to go through the markets putting "Xs" next to names of nags! This time in three weeks, we'll know whether or not some of these instinctive picks have prevailed. Looking forward...

Saturday 4 February 2012

Crusade for Cheltenham Clarity

"Life, woah life” [click here to listen whilst reading - recommended]

 Whenever I feel bogged down by events that occur to us inhabitants of earth, Des'ree's fine lyrics loll around my head and remind me of how insignificant we all really are, from a cosmological point of view anyway.  I'm sure that was her intended message.
I wrote that paragraph a couple of weeks ago but didn't finish off the chain of thought as Kevin Pullein in the Racing Post coincidentally published a piece with a similar theme in the paper, inadvertently denying Palphabet followers an undoubtedly cracking read.  As I didn't want to look like the Johann Hari of gambling blogs, I nipped it in the bud, looking for a slightly different angle.  The ultimate goal, however, was to attempt to define that moment of clarity that us punters have from time to time.  I'm referring to the supra-dreamlike vision of a victorious betting slip or Betfair interface, when everything just comes together in harmonious profit.

 January's P&L features one such moment:


Adrian "Jackpot" Lewis regained the PDC World Championship title, despite the best efforts of a wasp, a draught created by an open Alexandra Palace door and the first few sets of James Wade's accurate arrows.  Maybe "The Machine" enjoyed his own moment of clarity, shortly before the realisation that he was going to deny me the opportunity to pocket £1200 (minus lay-offs) caused him to metaphorically gouge out his eyes with tungsten-tips and collapse like Costa Concordia with Captain Coward at the controls.
The ability to see things clearly, then, is an advantage and fortunately January provided me with my first few transparent windows towards Cheltenham Glory:
Ruby Walsh top jockey at 8/11 (Hills)http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/specials/season-specials/cheltenham-festival/top-jockey/best-odds

Soll to win the National Hunt Steeple Chase at 12s with Hills, Stan James and Betfred, only 8s with the Magic Sign after success in Ireland midweek
http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/races/national-hunt-steeple-chase-odds.php
Big Buck's to win the Ladbrokes World Hurdle NAP at 4/9 (Hills)
http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/races/ladbrokes-world-hurdle-odds.php
Hurricane Fly to win the Champion Hurdle at Evens with Paddy Power
 
http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/races/champion-hurdle-odds.php
Finally, for now, and I start to shake a little bit just writing it down: Kauto Star to win the Gold Cup at a mouth-watering 4/1 generally, and nearly 5s on Betfair
http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/races/cheltenham-gold-cup-odds.php




I'd recommend looking for the best prices and placing a few singles and one whopping festival accumulator whilst listening to this.  I welcome your comments on my selections and aim to do a more in depth post during the week expanding on my reasons for the above selections, maybe looking for some more single-bet value plays. 
I am confident that the return awarded for this straightforward six-fold will mean that by the evening of Friday 16th March, when the festival racing is over, I will be so consumed by joy and alcohol that I won't be able to see anything, clearly or otherwise.  This excellent acca calculator from http://www.betcalc.com/accacalc.php illustrates my point as clear as a freshly polished pane of glass.
DP