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Monday, 19 December 2011

Nightmare end to a Whirlwind Week

Wow. Yesterday’s Super Sunday was a day of sport that would have warranted a national holiday, had Sunday not already been designated as a day of rest for most of the western world.  Messi putting Neymar in his place, Villa unable to defend corners, Phil Jones showing a good turn of foot but a suspect temperament in front of goal, City responding to United’s lunchtime pressure in a way befitting the champions elect.  Add to that Big Buck’s performance on Saturday, Raya Star franking Rock on Ruby’s form over hurdles and RVB crashing out of the PDC last night, and it’s been a weekend for sports fans to savour.
Unless you were laying bets on the exchanges that saw you in this position by Sunday night:

(relates to event settlement date)

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
I am deliberately looking back over the past 30 days rather than the past 24 hours – I’d like to think this is because I take a long-term view of my trading and focus on moving averages rather than short-term fluctuations. The truth is I daren’t look at my isolated weekend P&L for fear that it may result in my Christmas having an outlook of pessimism similar to that of a battery turkey.

The Australian wallet returned just over a ton of profit thanks to IJP prevailing down under, returning some solace off a £17 stake at just a couple of points shy of 9-1 but that has done little to lift my spirits during this supposed time of good will to all men.
I have, however, got some bets on for the yuletide period, and I want to carry on testing my hypothesis that you see a higher than average number of red cards in mid-week televised football matches played under poor weather conditions featuring teams at opposite ends of the skill spectrum or with something significant to play for.  My optimism for profit has been boosted by this schedule of televised fixtures:

Mon 19
Crystal Palace v Birmingham (7.45pm)

Tue 20
Blackburn v Bolton (8.00pm)

Premier League
Wed 21
Wigan v Liverpool (8.00pm)

Premier League
Thu 22
Tottenham v Chelsea (8.00pm)

Premier League

The odds offered against a sending off in those matches are all between 3/1 and 5/1, and as such, I will be looking closely at tonight’s match.  Crystal Palace and Birmingham have just one red card between them so far this season and are separated by just one place and one point in the league so far this season.   Birmingham’s sole sending off came, however, in a match away to Cardiff, who are above them in the Championship and will have tested their defence enough to draw Curtis Davies into a last-man challenge that denied Kenny Miller a goalscoring opportunity [despite replays proving the decision made by referee Anthony Taylor to be incorrect]. 

Whether or not Crystal Palace’s attack will cause the same problems is a moot point.  A swift glance at the prowess of these teams in front of goal does not reveal a potent strike rate for either side and a red card is currently trading at fairly priced 9/2 on Betfair.,,10794~20117,00.html

Might leave this one alone and wait for some more clear indicators in the other mid-week fixtures.  The biggest danger after a weekend of losses like I’ve just had is to dive straight back in... isn’t it?!

Finally, thanks to radio 5 Live, who had me on their racing show last week - it was an honour to be on the airwaves amongst such exalted company as Cornelius Lysaght and Mick Fitzgerald with Mark Pougatch.  Thanks also to Chris Graham and the podcast boys for the plug - looking forward to more media appearances in the new year!

For those that didn't catch me on the Denman show - here's the audio 


  1. Isn't the time frame on your account summary image 3 hours?

    Not sure about this red card thing, will watch with interest - think you need to involve some referee data - some clearly have a greater propensity to card.

  2. It looks that way Si, but the boxes below show the date range, and that's what is reflected. Re red cards, I've noticed it recently in Fulham v Liverpool and Spurs v Shamrock.. Will ask the guys at the Betting Expert Blog to do some research on it, but I reckon there will be a sending off in at least one of this week's televised matches.. Want a bet on it?!

  3. Nope not laying that for you thanks! One in six games will have a red, would be interesting to see distribution by month. Good chance of one in tmrw's game, two teams have loads to play for and are in bottom 3 of fair play league

  4. Superb blog mate-


  5. Ohhh Das. Got any tips this weekend....

  6. Hi Das ...thanks for the comment -

    Why not back the following in a triple.. all PF Nicholls runners at Kempton on Boxing Day:

    Silviniaco Conti 4/1
    Rock on Ruby 15/8
    Kauto Star 4/1

    Good luck! planey