Nightmare end to a Whirlwind Week

Wow. Yesterday’s Super Sunday was a day of sport that would have warranted a national holiday, had Sunday not already been designated as a day of rest for most of the western world.  Messi putting Neymar in his place, Villa unable to defend corners, Phil Jones showing a good turn of foot but a suspect temperament in front of goal, City responding to United’s lunchtime pressure in a way befitting the champions elect.  Add to that Big Buck’s performance on Saturday, Raya Star franking Rock on Ruby’s form over hurdles and RVB crashing out of the PDC last night, and it’s been a weekend for sports fans to savour.

Unless you were laying bets on the exchanges that saw you in this position by Sunday night:

Period: Last 3 Hours Last 6 Hours Just For Today From Yesterday Last 7 days Last 30 days Last 3 Months Download to Spreadsheet ? (relates to event settlement date) (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)

Golf: -£167.53 | Horse Racing: -£124.17 | Snooker: £177.78 | Soccer: -£655.57 | Special Bets: -£25.52 | Tennis: -£58.81 | Tote: | Total P&L: -£853.82

I am deliberately looking back over the past 30 days rather than the past 24 hours – I’d like to think this is because I take a long-term view of my trading and focus on moving averages rather than short-term fluctuations. The truth is I daren’t look at my isolated weekend P&L for fear that it may result in my Christmas having an outlook of pessimism similar to that of a battery turkey.

The Australian wallet returned just over a ton of profit thanks to IJP prevailing down under, returning some solace off a £17 stake at just a couple of points shy of 9-1 but that has done little to lift my spirits during this supposed time of good will to all men.

I have, however, got some bets on for the yuletide period, and I want to carry on testing my hypothesis that you see a higher than average number of red cards in mid-week televised football matches played under poor weather conditions featuring teams at opposite ends of the skill spectrum or with something significant to play for.  My optimism for profit has been boosted by this schedule of televised fixtures:

Mon 19	Crystal Palace v Birmingham (7.45pm)	7.30pm	Championship
Tue 20	Blackburn v Bolton (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League
Wed 21	Wigan v Liverpool (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League
Thu 22	Tottenham v Chelsea (8.00pm)	7.30pm	Premier League

The odds offered against a sending off in those matches are all between 3/1 and 5/1, and as such, I will be looking closely at tonight’s match.  Crystal Palace and Birmingham have just one red card between them so far this season and are separated by just one place and one point in the league so far this season.   Birmingham’s sole sending off came, however, in a match away to Cardiff, who are above them in the Championship and will have tested their defence enough to draw Curtis Davies into a last-man challenge that denied Kenny Miller a goalscoring opportunity [despite replays proving the decision made by referee Anthony Taylor to be incorrect]. 

http://www.birminghammail.net/birmingham-sport/birmingham-city-fc/birmingham-city-fc-news/2011/12/05/birmingham-city-boss-blames-curtis-davies-sending-off-for-defeat-97319-29894224/ 

Whether or not Crystal Palace’s attack will cause the same problems is a moot point.  A swift glance at the prowess of these teams in front of goal does not reveal a potent strike rate for either side and a red card is currently trading at fairly priced 9/2 on Betfair. 

http://www.football-league.co.uk/page/ClubShooting/0,,10794~20117,00.html

Might leave this one alone and wait for some more clear indicators in the other mid-week fixtures.  The biggest danger after a weekend of losses like I’ve just had is to dive straight back in... isn’t it?!

Finally, thanks to radio 5 Live, who had me on their racing show last week - it was an honour to be on the airwaves amongst such exalted company as Cornelius Lysaght and Mick Fitzgerald with Mark Pougatch.  Thanks also to Chris Graham and the www.sportingbet.com podcast boys for the plug - looking forward to more media appearances in the new year!

For those that didn't catch me on the Denman show - here's the audio http://tvider.com/view/73280 

Palphabet Relishes the Pressure of High-Profile Personality Props

Since my last post, celebrities have flocked to follow my Twitter handle at an alarming rate that has left me honoured, humbled and hopeful for a future in full time micro blogging.  I must say that I use the term “celebrities” with a looseness normally associated with the lips of wartime ship-sinkers.   These tweeters are household names only in the houses of men who probably live on their own, watching sport and staring at numbers on screens looking for value bets, but their encouragement has still done wonders to boost my enthusiasm for and dedication to the Palphabet cause: to move full-time into a life dominated by nothing but sporting enjoyment. 

I am also grateful for the kind comments from other readers who might not edit a national newspaper or represent the views of a multinational bookmaker!

The facts and figures on my account over the past couple of weeks seem to reflect the additional vigour I have for that cause.  Here's my P&L for December so far:

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)

Football: £850.86 | Golf: -£123.87 | Horse Racing: -£383.97 | Snooker: £177.78 | Tote: | Total P&L: £520.80

The football has centred around backing red cards in high-octane, wet-weathered, midweek games (Fulham v Liverpool and Chelsea v Manchester City), and the racing, despite delivering inauspicious losses, includes a significant win on Gauvain last week who, tipped by both Pricewise AND James Boyle (http://betbuddy.mobi/ ), duly obliged with a Huntingdon victory at nearly 7-1.  As I said at the time, when those two tipsters agree on something, and given that Boyle's mission is to out-tip Segal, you just have to take note!

Horse Racing > : 2m4f Grd2 Chs > Gauvain Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Bets

Selection Odds Stake (£) Liability (£) Bid type Placed Matched (GMT) Profit/loss (£) Gauvain 7.6 51.39 Back 08-Dec-11 10:20 08-Dec-11 10:20 339.17

Let’s face it, those who risk thousands of pounds on the financial markets, researching the FTSE100 and AIM market movements, studying the 12-month moving averages of share prices and making decisions based around P/E ratios, EPS figures and director deals still very often end up losing their hard-earned dosh.  Yet these people are permitted, nay encouraged, to sit in pubs and at dinner parties, waxing lyrical about their investment portfolio and diversified strategies whilst those of us with a penchant for punting on sport are looked upon with pity and disdain by those who are convinced we should be attending GA meetings on a weekly basis.  

*****

A few things have made me happy to be flying the Palphabet flag over the past couple of weeks:

·         Denman – yes, I may have placed a couple of small antepost wagers on the Lexus and next year’s Gold Cup on The Tank – but I’m glad he’s been retired healthy, and his memory lives on both in the stables at Ditcheat and in my own household through my cat, who we named after the gorgeous gelding.

The Tank in feline form, wearing the famous colours of the planey2k stable

·         Matt Chapman – I’ve developed a man-crush on the ATR presenter – he’s articulate, amusing and handles live television with more aplomb than X-Factor, I’m a Celeb and BB presenters put together.

Chapman driving the girls wild

·         Judd Trump – Man-Crush subject #2.  I tipped him on Twitter and backed him with £30 at 14.5 on Betfair, but I also like his playboi banter off the baize and his happy-go-lucky attitude to life.

Judd Trumps them all with his playboi potting

·         George Porter – the final object of my homoerotic man-crush desires – his drop of the shoulder against the dumbfounded Exeter City defence was a joy to behold, and I hope he’s able to stay with Orient for a while longer yet.

Georgeous George ...phwooaarrr

·         Gary Neville – no, I don’t have a crush on him, but his scutiny of Barcelona’s footballing philosophy on last night’s MNF had me reaching for the tissues – truly insightful stuff that makes Andy Gray’s analysis look as modern as his view on women.  If he can learn how to stand still whilst presenting the show, he will have it all.

Gary Neville looking uncharacteristically still...in a still photograph

These little things in life make me happy, and keep me focused on my pursuit of a world dominated by alrightness.   It’s out there somewhere!

The Post Knows More Than Most

I hope you all joined me in laying the hind legs off Binocular at evens on Saturday.  Those of you who also took a bit of Overturn at 4.0 on Betfair will have shared in my joy, although maybe not shared in celebrating by shouting “screw you Binocular!” at the telly, whilst in a packed bookies, in the premier enclosure at Newbury racecourse!  But I’m not here to blog about my success at the Hennessy meeting, enjoyable as it was.

For last night was one of the most enjoyable sessions I’ve had on the internet without enabling the “Private Browsing” feature on Safari. 

Whilst on Twitter, I engaged in what felt like a proper conversation with the following characters: Racing Post editor Bruce Millington (@brucemillington) and football-mad writer Mark Langdon (@marklangdon – a man who summarises himself thus: Racing Post journalist who loves football and betting and betting on football) ; Racing Post golf guru Steve Palmer (@stevepalmer78 – the 78 denotes his year of birth, a fact he bemoans regularly in his hilarious columns in the ‘paper and the amazing published diary “Born to Punt”... I mean that the account is amazing, not the fact a publisher decided to touch it); BBC Journo “Honest” Frank Keogh (@honestfrank); Coral’s Head of Racing James Knight (@jamesaknight) the Editor in Chief of Sport Magazine Simon Caney (@simoncaney) and some blokes called Mark Calvert (@furlongpost) and Lee Murray (@LeeAMurray) both of whom seem like jolly nice fellas.

The fervent retweeting and replying arose due to the fact that the BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2011 shortlist had been announced, and in the aftermath Honest Frank shared a link with his 7,000 followers showing the various publications’ choices for aforementioned winning personalities: 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/sports_personality/15895642.stm

I don’t actually have a problem with any of the newspapers or magazines, free or overpriced, whose sports writers got a say.  I’m not a regular peruser of Zoo or Nuts magazine, as I favour hardcore pornography, which is why I’m not a massive fan of the Sun either, and I appreciate that giveaway dailies like the Evening Standard and the Metro probably do reflect popular opinion and make informed choices when given this sort of responsibility.   Yes, I was a tad bitter, having backed him for a top-3 finish, that Judd Trump wasn’t in the final selection, but the real omission was that of the Racing Post.  They didn’t even get a vote.

This is a staple of literary digestion that British punters up and down the country cannot do without.  Aside from gambling, though, it also provides some of the most authoritative, well-researched and insightful analysis and opinion that you can find in the print media.  Read some of James Pyman’s pieces on trends of the turf, tuck into Kevin Pullein’s in-depth treatises on the statistics behind the football hunches, and find me any golf correspondent anywhere else in journalism who puts more effort into previewing tour tournaments than Steve Palmer. 

http://www.racingpost.com/news/tipping/kevin-pullein-football-analyst/829275/

Maybe it is because these writers know that gamblers hang on their words before filling out their coupons, but I don’t have a bet every day, and I seem more and more often to reach for the RP ahead of most other choices in the newsagents.  I will already be aware of most of the mainstream news by the time I’ve had my Marmite on toast and morning cuppa – when I get to the cornershop, there’s always so much more to enjoy in the Post.

So the fact that the beeb didn’t even consider their opinion for SPOTY 2011 bemuses me.  I doubt we would have ended up with the RP team choosing 10 jockeys or even five choices from the whole sport of horseracing.  We might have had a female suggestion in the shape of Hayley Turner, and who could argue that AP McCoy doesn’t deserve to be in there again, but I posit that there would have been many shouts in the RP’s list that you would have agreed with.  They deserved their say.  Bruce Millington himself has said more for Mark Cavendish than most mainstream sports commentators, and I feel like I have had my sporting knowledge enriched by adding the Racing Post to my regular reads.   These hacks are more than just tipsters you know Auntie!  I would urge the BBC to look beyond regional rags and sleazy mags and give this other British institution the respect it deserves in next year’s SPOTY nomination process.

Looking Forward to the Dirty Thirties...

Tomorrow, a luxury Mercedes-Benz coach will take me and 33 pals to Newbury for the SportingBet festival's dramatic conclusion: Hennessy Gold Cup Day - the event that, one year ago to the day, sewed the seed that turned me from a casual punter with an interest in horse racing, into a gambling addict with a passion for the turf.

I'm laying £50 of Binocular in the Fighting Fifth up in Newcastle, and am yet to place a bet for the Newbury meeting.  Great Endeavour's trouncing of the field a few weeks ago in the Paddy Power is still fresh in my mind, but I will wait until the morning to make my mind up on the se7en races in Berkshire, and place most bets at the track, enjoying the banter and bedazzlement of my 30th birthday outing.

A quick word for Big Buck's, who for me is the highlight of tomorrow's card - currently trading at 1.21 on Betfair.  He is one hell of a hurdler and with bank accounts paying paltry sums of interest, those of you burying acorns for your kids' futures or the holiday of your dreams could do far worse than investing all of your life savings in this almighty beast tomorrow afternoon.

Crus-ing into the Jump Season



Grands Crus makes the weight count at Cheltenham yesterday in the 2m 4f Novice Chase

P&L (LAST 30 DAYS)

Boxing: -£18.95 | Cricket: -£6.00 | Horse Racing: £582.10 | Motor Sport: -£31.99 | Soccer: £166.81 | Tote: | Total P&L: £691.97

As I settle down, cup of tea on my little living-room table, to The Morning Line, I’ve finally got a chance to put electronic pen to LCD-projected paper and recollect some of my finest memories of a memorable flat-racing summer.

Back in March at Cheltenham, I met a chap called Simon Hawes for the first time.  Our mutual friend @paolobow introduced us just before Ruby Walsh powered Big Buck’s to another World Hurdle (leaving yesterday’s triumphant Novice Chaser Grands Crus in his wake) and we jumped around a town-centre pub in celebration at Buck’s’s victory (apostrophe carnage!), spilling Guinness and chucking phones around the room, quickly forming a burgeoning friendship built on mutual respect.

Little did I know that when we met at the track the next day, I nearly threw that new found amity away with the kind of disregard normally given to a losing betting slip.  Discussing the national hunt code of horse racing, I made a throwaway comment that went thus: “Ah lads.. it’s ALL about jump racing.. the flat really doesn’t have much for me.. I just don’t see what the fuss is about!”

To Hawes, it was as though I had not just insulted the facial hair sprouting unkemptly from just under his bottom lip; I might as well have taken a pair of tweezers to it and pulled each wiry black hair out, one by one.

@paolobow later told me that he had to hold Simon back: “just leave it, Si,” he said. “Not now.”

OK.  I was wrong.  I made a mistake.  As I always say: that’s why they put rubbers on the end of pencils.  I had, of course, enjoyed the flat in the past, but I just found the jumps more exciting, and I preferred the characters – the older horses like Denman and Kauto Star, who keep coming back after a decade of unabated efforts.  The risks they seem to take are higher, leaping over hurdles and fences into open ditches and soft, cold, winter turf.  I shouldn’t, however, have been so dismissive.

I’ve spent the summer reading up on the history of the flat, the prestige of the classics, the majesty of Longchamp and the pedigree and bloodstock associated with siring the next generation of thoroughbred racehorses.  It all begain with three original animals, the Byerley Turk, the Darley Arabian and the Godolphin Barb, probably over four centuries ago, and modern studs like Coolmore and  the Juddmonte Farms continue to produce the goods to this day.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thoroughbred  

I still think the National Hunt season holds more personal excitement for me, and I relished layed Cue Card yesterday with liabilities to the tune of £170, backing Grands Crus and roaring Tom Scudamore home as he made the weight advantage count and proved his class in the move from hurdles to fences,.  But now at least I can say to Simon, Paolo and the rest of you that I have been educated, enraptured and enriched by opening up my heart and my wallet to the flat, and I’m already looking forward to seeing the return of the speed demons in 2012.

Five Personal highlights/memories from the 2011 flat season:

1.   Having backed Frankel in the Guineas and lumped on at odds-against in the Duel on the Downs, seeing him in the flesh at very close quarters in the Ascot parade ring and winners’ enclosure took my breath away and earned me not one, but two photograph appearances in the Racing Post. http://palphabet.blogspot.com/2011/10/from-newmarket-nightmare-to-freaky.html

2.   Going to HQ for the first time since I was a nipper for my Nan’s 80^th birthday party, and promptly losing a monkey. “All part and parcel of a day at the track” as Simon put it.

3.   The thought of Goldikova and Galileo going at it! What a sire that beast is.. I want him to wine and dine Goldi, treating her with the respect she deserves, but really Gal, hold nothing back when you get down to making the beast with two backs.

4.   John Gosden’s utter class in the aftermath of Rewilding’s death at Ascot.  I was on the Godolphin colt that day and it was very clear that Gosden had more concern for the fallen horse than for his own triumphant Nathaniel.

5.   Watching many a YouTube video of Black Caviar tearing through the “competition” down under.  She is an awesome animal, who glides around the course like a big cat: stealth of a panther, speed of a cheetah.. I sound like the theme tune to the cartoon Bravestarr, but I don’t care and we will all be in for a treat if she comes up this way next year (although not if she starts at 1-33!) http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=black+caviar&aq=f

From Newmarket Nightmare to Freaky Frankel Fightback

As predicted, the Nan at Newmarket ninth decade celebration (http://palphabet.blogspot.com/2011/10/enjoyment-is-eternal.html) ended in despair as I chased losses and ended up around £600 down, backing short-priced favourites with reckless beer-blinded abandon, throwing all strategic research out the window.

I have to say, HQ premier enclosure disappointed somewhat: bar staff who didn't seem to know the difference between a pint of Guinness and a gin & tonic; security staff who wouldn't let my grandparents out onto the viewing gallery until they had necked their drinks (not an easy feat, even for my relatives, when you're more used to sipping than supping); staff in general who may have been drafted in for a particularly busy day but who really didn't represent the Cambs / Suffolk border in the way one would have expected. 

Ascot's Champions' Day, on the other hand, did not disappoint.  Some staff passes afforded entry into otherwise prohibited parts of the track, and at no point anywhere did men in orange vests attempt to curtail our enjoyment by demanding we take drinks inside.  Neither did any barmen or women need me to explain how to pour a drink.

The previous week's losses of a Monkey and a bag of hooves were more or less replenished thanks to hefty performances from Deacon Blues, Opinion Poll (TBP), hefty stakes on horse-of-a-generation Frankel, and hefty tipping from Mr Tom Segal, who we all followed in on the final handicap of the day, netting a 28-1 winner and a 17-1 place (Edinburgh Knight and Castles in the Air respectively) and returning just shy of 300 quid.

I'll let some pictures tell the rest of the story - we had a great day and I'd also like to recommend you check out beatboxing supremos Duke (@dukeofficial), who rounded off the ceremonies with a fantastic array of lip & tongue techniques not seen put to such good use since Emmanuelle IV.

You can see the look of love - and they both have the same smile :)

Trainer and owner soul-shake

Two Princes

Queeny and Queally share a moment

Ronnie Wood meets someone with fuller lips than Mick Jagger

Characters

The Irony

After years of stalking, I meet Brazil

YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'RE DOING!

I'm going to start making more than just mental notes of referees' names and their disconcertingly frequent penchant for ignoring the laws of Association Football, particularly whilst in charge of the proceedings on-pitch at Leyton Orient's Brisbane Road.  

Coote: Cunte

I got 2 right, didn't I?  No.

Two have stuck out in recent weeks: David Coote (left) officiating in the middle of our Tuesday night defeat to AFC Bournemouth a few weeks ago; and Oliver Langford (right) who was so so awful yesterday that home and away fans alike joined vocally together to berate him with a round of "YDKWYD" after he gave us a goal kick when it was clearly a Sheffield United corner, ignoring his assistant referee who was vigorously waving his flag to indicate that the ball had deflected at least 20 degrees off of a red-socked lower-leg.

If you have any rogue refs to add to the gallery, let me know.  I will try to report more comprehensively on the inadequacy of lower-league officials as the rest of the season unfolds - they really do seem to want to ruin it for everyone. 

DP