The Master is Back and Confident - Back him for the Masters with Confidence

On the eve of Augusta, with the Masters 2013 app downloaded, the William Hill Golf Betting Podcast digested, and the merits of contenders debated, the bets are decided.

Essential Listening

As I've discussed before, I follow Steve Palmer in the Racing Post, have a good look at Jeremy Chapman in the Racing Post and Plus, and add into that the insight provided by the podcast boys, who often highlight key stats and posit thoughtful theories.



So with that in mind, the Palphabet Portfolio for the next four days looks thus:



Headline Pick - Tiger Woods: £200 at 9/2 Betfred; £100 e/w PP

Betfred went 9/2 about the four time Masters champ earlier in the week and a few other firms followed.  Stan James were top price in the market, meaning they had to match Fred "hopefully he'll get" Done until this evening, when they clipped him into 4/1.  Paddy Power offered the same price, but have the added advantage that they pay 6-places each-way, should you wish to cover yourself if he doesn't triumph.  Some bookies are also refunding losing bets if Tiger and/or Rory McIlroy win, so it's worth shopping around for deals.

Betfred Slip Posing on a Perfect Masters App Picture

Betfred Stake Split Each Way with PP

I had a huge win on Tiger in the WGC Cadillac early in March, when he was sent off at a price as Blue Monstrous at the famous course at which he has repeated romped home: 11/1.  These odds grossly underestimated his majesty around Doral and I believe both his game, and his temperament are now sufficiently balanced to suggest he can find familiarity in his prior successes at Augusta as he did in Florida a few weeks ago.

Thoughtful as always, the WH Podcast boys pointed out that the fairways at Augusta are backcombed in the same way as a balding man might sculpt his hair back across his bonce.  This is significant in golf, less so in male grooming, as the "carry" a player can achieve off the tee means his ball is less likely to meet friction as it attempts to gain extra roll distance.  Steve Palmer rates power as the key attribute for success at Augusta, hence his picking of Keegan Bradley and Dustin Johnson, and it is reassuring to see Tiger Woods and DJ right up there at the top of the "carry" stats, with Tiger rated the best on tour: http://www.pgatour.com/content/pgatour/stats/stat.02409.html

Colsaerts is one I strongly DON'T want to win this weekend.  I've picked a lot of golfers to have onside and I think Nic has a solid game, evidenced by his Ryder Cup performance last summer (another time Betfred offered a cracking deal - 2/1 Europe to win the tournament).  In the Europe vs USA spectacle, in two rounds of fourball matches, Colsaerts made 11 birdies and one eagle and was as unflappable as that bird of prey is flappy.  His lack of track experience, however, puts me off.  He's a debutant here so I'm reluctantly leaving him out of the punting pack.  Talented Dane Thorbjørn Olesen is another first-timer that I will watch with trepidation if he starts getting hot.  His recent injury, whiplash sustained in a car accident, will surely be enough to stop him driving his way to success?  Sorry.

Best Supporting Act - Louis Oosthuizen: £60 win at 34 on Betfair

I've supplemented this outright bet with £50 on the exchange matched at 7.8 for a top 5 finish.  After missing his first three cuts in the Masters, I had Louis to win it when sent off at 90/1 last year before Bubba beat him in a playoff after Mickelson fell away in the closing stages and I don't want to miss out on any place money again this time around.  That memorable albatross on the par-5 second hole, "Pink Dogwood", was one of Sky's top 10 all-time Masters shots.  A beauty indeed it was, although for me Tiger's touch around the 16th green on his way to the 2005 title still gives me goosefistpumples and gets my vote.

Louis has the power to set himself up for eagles and birdies on the longer holes and, although recent form reads 32/CUT/33/CUT/10, he won the Volvo Championship in his native South Africa on the European Tour this season and is subsequently still ranked 6th in the world, behind Snedeker, Donald, Rose, McIlroy and our top pick, the Tiger.


Antepost Fancy - Graeme McDowell: £25 at 61.6 on Betfair

Backed him for this tournament the same weekend Tiger won the Cadillac.  G Mac had three eye-catching consecutive rounds of -6, -5 and -3 before closing on Sunday with a disappointing even par round to finish tied third with Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and "Lefty" Phil Mickelson, who closed with a stunning -8, a decent -3 and an ordinary -1 respectively.  The last of that trio, though, Big Phil, is another I am fearing this coming weekend.  In the past five years his record in the Masters reads third last year, 27th, 1st, 5th, 5th.  Much like Bubba, who I have backed, Phil's shot shaping is ideal for Augusta, and both have demonstrated unbelievable shots from the trees in recent years to clinch their green jackets.

Since letting the runner-up spot slip away in Florida, we've only seen McDowell play once.  He ended up 45th at the Arnold Palmer, which was again won by Tiger at a course he loves, Bay Hill.   When he hasn't missed the cut at Augusta though, and he did in 2011 and 2010, G Mac has been there or thereabouts, with a 12 and a 17 against his name.  His accent is practically American, he seems happy and confident and unlike Donald, Westwood and Poulter, he is a Brit with a major under his belt.  The price seems to offer a decent each-way prospect.

Best of the Rest

When Jeremy Chapman AND Steve Palmer fancy a 200/1 outsider, you simply have to take heed.  When that contender, another South African, leads the European Tour's "Race to Dubai", has the 3rd best scoring average out there (behind Woods and Sned) and has a win and a 2nd place against his name this term then you'd be crazy not to chuck some cash down.  The chap in question, Richard Sterne, is begging to be backed, with Paddy Power's additional each-way place firmly coming into play.


The staking plan is completed with bets on 2011 USPGA Champion Keegan Bradley; huge hitting Dustin Johnson; last year's winner Bubba the Blubber (did you see his press conference yesterday?) and consistently competitive Hunter Mahan, who credited himself with a runner-up cheque in the recent WGC Matchplay tournament.
 

Aintree Day 3 - The Grand National

Maybe it was the stench of tanning products?  Liverpudlian ladies, liver chestnut in colour swigging neat vodkas providing distraction from the track and clouding my mind.  Something certainly has to be blamed for my laying of Dynaste, opposing of Sprinter Sacre and losing of £220 on festival Friday.   At Fishers Cross and My Tent or Yours provided some respite, returning about about a ton plus some acca money but that just serves as evidence for the size of those other losses.  Sprinter Sacre was simply stunning over that longer trip yesterday and really has nothing but a Gold Cup or a King George to win now. I think he could do it!

 

 

Liverpool, however, is the perfect place to revive and refresh your punting passions.  Last night the city centre was teeming with life and laughter, and this morning the aftermath of alcoholic effects is being tempered perfectly by the aroma currently emanating from our hosts' kitchen.  A full English breakfast is on the way, and so is Grand National Saturday.

 

Being a three day meeting, the cards at Aintree are jam-packed with quality.  Hearty handicaps follow grade 1 contests, equine behemoths every way you turn and today is no different.  Overturn goes up against Alderwood in the Maghull Novices' Chase; the 3-mile Liverpool hurdle sees Grands Crus, another David Pipe trained grey bidding to prove his doubters wrong and demonstrate that a return to hurdling is just the tonic required to get back to winning ways; and in the Grand National, my money is carried by the same horse who carries my dreams - Soll - who was bred by my friend's father, sired by Denman's father Presenting, and could be the mother of all bets I have ever placed.  I got on at nearly 300/1 months ago.  When the weights and entries were being discussed he was way down the list, but today he is actually competing in the greatest race on turf.

I don't know why this picture is blurry, but I'm hoping my eyes will be wet with blurry tears when Soll romps home later

1.45 Mersey Novices' Hurdle

It's between Up and Go for Donald McCain and Dodging Bullets for Paul Nicholls at the top of the betting market in this 8 horse race.  Up and Go hasn't won on going faster than soft and his price is a bit on the skinny side, but looks to be a banker to get us started.

2.15 Maghull Novices' Chase

Overturn was run ragged by Simonsig over the undulations of Cheltenham and followed him home an Arkle Chase fourth, some 30 lengths behind.  With that in mind, Alderwood is tempting so I'm going to reverse forecast the two but with a leaning towards Overturn, who is a real favourite of mine.

2.50 Liverpool Hurdle

Solwhit is a class act, and Alan King's Smad Place will likely feature in the places.  Holywell is another festival winner to be feared in this exciting renewal, although the race is marred slightly by the absence of the mighty Big Buck's.  In the same red and white colours of the Stewart Family, I'm going to back Celestial Halo to go one better than at Cheltenham, and I'm also going to get Grands Crus on side at a tempting price.

The Grand National

I'm running out of time here and the champagne cork has just been popped by our hospitable friend Cairnsey, so all's left to say is come on Soll.  I have made some other selections, influenced by Pricewise, AP McCoy's choice of horse and by the huge price about Oscar Time, runner up in 2011's race. 

Here we go again...

 

 

Aintree Day 2 - Ladies' Day

A profitable day was enjoyed yesterday, £430 fuelling my journey via rail up to Liverpool, where a particularly tasty curry was enjoyed at Albert Dock eatery East Z East.  Not sure what that Z is all about but the food and service were excellent and the leftovers have been enjoyed for a raceday breakfast this morning.



Booze

  



Views

The views from our city pad afford us sights of the north docks, across the vast body of the River Mersey towards the Wirral.  A pleasant vista.  But that is nothing compared to the treat in store for my ever-so-slightly-smaller-than-average eyes later this afternoon.  Sprinter Sacre is out and about today and anyone who has the opportunity to clap their mince pies upon this cocky animal should savour and relish the chance.  Having said that, stepping up in trip over fences to 2m 4f in the Grade 1 Melling Chase, and priced at 1/3  versus game contenders Cue Card, Flemenstar and perhaps Finian’s Rainbow (if he’s back to 100%), he will have to have his not inconsiderable wits about him.  What a delight this will be for national hunt racing fans all over the land this afternoon.
 

We are intending to get to the track nice and early, and hopefully walk the course, so I’ve just taken a few snapshots of my bets for today to illustrate some thoughts.  Have a good one and, ladies of Liverpool, watch out – the Palphabet pals are in town :-/
 

2.00 – Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle

Going to get back onside with MTOY after his failure at Cheltenham.  Small field and much lesser company means he is a short but fair odds-on price.  Added to an acca.

 

2.30 – Grade 2 Novices’ Chase

Laying Dynaste and backing Pricewise tip Sea of Thunder.  Seems slightly incongruous with my comments about My Tent or Yours above, since Dynaste is 2/1 against, but he was rather unimpressive in March and so I'll take him on.

 

3.05 – Grade 1 Melling Chase

Flemenstar, if he is on point, is capable of a big run over this trip, and is a BIG price to get the better of Sprinter Sacre.  I once heard Dan Skelton say that he thought Flemenstar was undoubtedly a 2-mile horse, but he has been shown on the other side of the Irish Sea to stay the longer trip and I know Tom Segal was sweet on him as a potential Cheltenham Gold Cup prospect.  Conversely, Sprinter Sacre IS a proven 2-mile horse and is stepping into the unknown here.  When Frankel stepped up to 1m 2f, I was in no way skeptical that he would be as dominant at 10 furlongs as he was over 7 furlongs or a mile.  I stuck hefty wagers down at short prices without a second thought.  There is a hint of doubt with Sprinter Sacre though, so whilst I've added him to my Lucky 15, I'm laying him in the outright market.  This race has got us all thinking, but it's certainly got us all drooling too.

3.40 – The Topham Handicap Chase

Backed four in this one.  Segal tipped two in the paper this morning at big prices - Last Time D'Albain, ridden by a winner from yesterday - Bryan Cooper (who partnered First Lieutenant to victory in the Betfred Bowl); and Mister First, tipped at 50/1!  Spoylesports would only let me have £1.50 each way on that, but the lovely layers at Bet365 allowed me to have my full regular point on - top bookie!  Backed Palphabet favourite Chance du Roy and also got Tartak on side.

 
4.15 – Sefton Novices’ Hurdle

I love Rebecca Curtis.  There, I've said it.  On At Fishers Cross with a Rod Laver on Master of the Sea.

4.50 – Listed Handicap Hurdle

You know that scene in Happy Gilmore?  "Mista Mista"?  It's hilarious - check it out.  In honour of that, and AP McCoy's ability to get the best out of a weight-carrying nag, I'm backing Get Me Out of Here to give us a quick JP / AP double. 

Impressed with Harry Derham's ride on board Salubrious when winning the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham, I'm back on today in the acca above.  Raised from 141 to 149, He's carrying 11-3 this afternoon but Harry takes off a handy 5 via his claim as a conditional jockey.

My mate Wardrop was sitting next to me talking up former Champion Hurdler Punjabi too, so whilst I was on Betfair, I gobbled up the 46s available to backers, just to spite him - hilarious scenes ensued, as he was left with a paltry 44.  Many fellow exchange users will surely appreciate the banter?!

5.25 – Bumper

No selection yet - will place a bet trackside, staking accordingly depending on how heavy my pockets are feeling later this afternoon.

 

Aintree Day 1

To watch the BBC’s News at Ten this evening, you would be forgiven for assuming that a real and formal threat from nuclear-weapon wielding North Korea towards the United States of America was something to be concerned about as we head into the downhill half of our weeks.

 You might be wondering if you fit snugly into one of the seven new classes defined by sociologists at the beeb: “Oooh am I an emerging servicer or an established technical elitist?”

It's easy when you lie on the survey

 
Whatever. Here comes the sport. Oh, some non-English sides are competing for the major honours in European club football.  Whoopee.  Does it not seem strange to you that, with three days of premium National Hunt Racing ahead of us, all the major news channels are focusing on the banal and benign?

 
Sprinter Sacre is stepping up in trip; Flemenstar is back and out to prove the Casey camp aren’t all as mad as a box of frogs; Overturn has a disappointing Cheltenham from which to bounce back; Silviniaco Conti, nose still wet from that nasty festival fall, needs to dust himself down and rekindle the fiery confidence that has seen him so impressively answer the questions posed by large, bristly fences up and down the country; and Palphabet favourite Soll, having made mincemeat of the Sandown railway fences a few weeks ago, has this evening made the cut in the greatest steeplechase the world has ever known – the John Smith’s Grand National.


I’m sure if Kim Jong Un knew all of these varied threads were being woven into the great colourful tapestry of jumps racing as he spoke (undoubtedly in a rather menacing fashion, on the subject of world domination), he would pause for a moment, pick up the phone to Dennis Rodman and meet in the most mutually convenient of locations tomorrow afternoon: Aintree.

 

Isn't it easy to picture this very scene in a luxury trackside box at a Merseyside racecourse?

I, for one, would look forward to meeting him there, going for a curry and preparing for Ladies’ Day, followed by a night out in Liverpool, Grand National Saturday, and then another night out in Liverpool.  It's the home of The Beatles, KJU, all you need is love.. and a couple of decent-priced winners.
 

Now, as Tom Segal says in tomorrow's column (yes, I've bought an ipad with the RP app, very elitist I know): "Aintree always provides a tricky conundrum for punters". Namely: stick or twist. You either stay faithful to the Cheltenham pocket-liners like Sprinter Sacre, Flaxen Flare, The New One, Alderwood and Solwhit or you look for that kind croupier of the turf and hope he's going to deal you a better hand in the north west than he did down in the south west.  Celestial Halo, Overturn, Dodging Bullets, Conti, Countrywide Flame, Captain Conan, all capable of reversing form or improving on a totally different track. Of course there are those nags who we never even saw grace the festival floor to consider too. There's so much to think about I honestly do wonder why the general public care so much about some 17-year-old kid selling an app that seems to provide little more than the info you get when you click "news" on well-known search engine site google.com.  

The RP iPad app - wow, just wow.  Infinitely better than that 17 year old kid's one..

 
Here’s a few picks for Aintree’s Thursday card to hopefully line our collective pockets ahead of the weekend’s action:

2.00 – Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle


Not too sure why Far West isn’t lining up for this £56-grand, 2-mile opener for four year olds.  Nicholls is sending stable companion Irish Saint, thinks the track will suit and the bookies go 3/1, marginally larger odds than Henderson’s Rolling Star, who had the better of the Saint at Cheltenham in January.  It’s stick or twist time guys.  At 31/1, carrying £40 of my festival funds, Flaxen Flare was one of my Cleeve Hill heroes, having been tipped by Segal earlier that day before winning the Fred Winter in notable fashion.  Currently 5.9 on Betfair, I don’t want to be twisting on trainer Gordon Elliott any time soon.  He’s 6 from 19 in the past fortnight and his whole team are flying. 

Flaxon Flare was a real Festival Fillip

 

2.30 – Betfred Bowl Chase
 

Another Grade 1 with a stellar line-up of staying chasers to behold.  Silviniaco Conti is a shade of odds-on at 5/6 to triumph around Aintree, where he romped home by 13 lengths last year, and it would be foolish not to have him in your accumulator or lucky 15 for the day.  First Lieutenant steps back up in trip after being beaten in the Ryanair Chase over 2m 5f and is the preferred alternative under multiple festival-winning jockey Bryan Cooper.

 
3.05 – Aintree Hurdle.. another Grade 1

Zarkandar is given blinkers for this race, which is over a distance 25% longer than the Champion Hurdle in which we last saw him.  He was beaten by Countrywide Flame that day and that is reflected in their prices being 5/1 and 4/1 respectively.  Willie Mullins’s grey Thousand Stars appeals at 9/1 as he is a two-time runner up in this race (in both instances losing out to 11/2 shot Oscar Whisky) but I think I’ll side with Countrywide Flame and pick Raya Star as my big-priced each way outside at around 28/1.

 
3.40 – Fox Hunters’ Chase

Here we go, a juicy handicap with amateur riders to break the monotony of the day’s impeccable line-up of grade 1 superstars.  I always look for “The Dentist” in races like these – Mr Sam Waley-Cohen, who likes Aintree having been runner-up in the 2011 Grand National, and who saddles up on Cottage Oak at around 6/1.   Not a huge price, but has place claims so will put him in an each-way acca of some kind.
 

In the 4.15 – Red Rum Handicap Chase, the 4.50 Grade 1 Novices’ Chase and the 5.25 Handicap Hurdle card-closer, I am going Rebel Rebellion for Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls; Captain Conan who should go better than when fifth at Cheltenham on good-to-soft last month; and Ericht to complete the first-day double for Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.  Will probably perm these up with that Waley-Cohen mount in the Fox Hunters’... in fact, I have!

 

 

With other decent looking cards at Taunton (where Hunt Ball and Aaim to Prosper catch the eye), and Thurles (with Toner D’Oudairies stepping out for red-hot Gordon Elliott under the jockeyship of shunned-by-the-BHA champion Irish jockey Davy Russell) it really is time to prise ones finger off the warheads and hit the nuclear betting button.   Boom!

Cheltenham 2013 - Day 4

The fall of the Berlin Wall; the end of Queen Victoria's six-decade reign; the final episode of The Wire; reaching your destination after a satisfying automobile journey along a favourite route... all things eventually finish.  Yesterday this was evident in stark brutality, and as I assess my Bet365 balance (showing a £200 loss on First Lieutenant, and a £25 loss on a FL / Dynaste "banker" double), as well as my Betfair P&L this morning, it makes for a similar reading experience as one of Melanie Phillips’ Daily Mail columns: sickening.

Yuck

Muck

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have never been trackside at Cheltenham’s “St Patrick’s Day” but it was an otherwise enjoyable experience.  Slightly shorter queues for bars and toilets (particularly after blagging it into the club enclosure) and Irish barmen in the Guinness tent seemingly more inebriated than their awaiting punters, World Hurdle day offered a pleasant alternative to Gold Cup Friday, which brings us to today. 

The amphitheatre of National Hunt Racing

 

I write this from the B&B in which we are staying  (I say B&B – it’s a family home that we have been taking over in increased numbers for the past few meetings at National Hunt HQ.. Essex raiders, if you will) and without the luxury of having much time at my disposal to think up my usual witticisms and anecdotes, I’ll get on with my selections for Friday.  Whilst I am hoping to end the week on a high, it would be wrong to look at yesterday and get too bogged down; ultimately it’s been a cracking week of punting and just being in the presence of Far West’s connections today is sure to make it an extremely pleasurable and memorable fourth day at my third festival.  Looking forward..

Triumph
Far West - been backing him for ages and, knowing one of the part owners as closely as I know my own member, it would be a delight to see the juvenile hurdler deliver at around 6/1 today.  Nicholls is bullish, and said in this morning's Betfair column: "I personally would say that we set the form standard going into this race".

County Hurdle
Ted Veale - heard some decent noise about this one, who carries just 10-6 with Bryan Cooper on board.  Cooper was atop Benefficient, slayer of Dynaste, yesterday and then stood in on First Lieutenant after reports that the unfortunate Davy Russell had spontaneously punctured a lung - get well soon Davy!

Albert Bartlett
At Fishers Cross.  The delightful Rebecca Curtis saddles this in-form bay gelding to provide that elusive 2013 festival win for AP McCoy, who I've just seen has been given the ride on Sir Des Champs in the Gold Cup following Davy Russell's withdrawal and the subsequent but unrelated non-running of Sunnyhillboy.

Gold Cup
Backed, and then layed a bit of Silviniaco Conti antepost after his recent winning of the Denman Chase at Newbury.  Nicholls is happy with SC and whilst there are plenty of doubters out there, he's said he's "confident that Conti goes into the race fit and well and on an upward curve".  Backed Sir Des Champs nearly a year ago and now buoyed by the booking of the 17-time consecutive champion jockey.  Going to take Long Run each-way too for the Waley-Cohen / Henderson crew - can't ignore that animal.  Now watch Bob's Worth make all and duly sluice up!

Foxhunter
Salsify.  Small bet on a fancied nag as part of a multiple - see below.

Martin Pipe
Act of Kalanisi for Dr Richard Newland, who I found out recently is involved in orthopaedics, much like myself!  AoK is ridden by 6-pound claiming jockey Christopher Ward (incidentally the name of one of my favourite watch brands).  Also backed Salubrious - PFN and Harry Derham (3).  As well as putting David Pipe's grey Gevrey Chambertin in a big acca, I also like Oh Crick and Shooters Wood too.. let's see how carried away I get at the track later!

Grand Annual
Last bet of the week.. well last festival bet anyway.    I was on Alderwood at 20/1 in last year's Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle and I'm going to get back involved today too, albeit only with a 0.5pt poke.

Finally, I've had a monster accumulator and Super Heinz with bet365.. pays out about a million-to-one.. fine.