Hedge-hunter: Why it can Pay to be Prudent

As a man who regularly enjoys gambling on horse racing, I like to be fairly limited in my stakes.  It is easy to get carried away with the riches of the National Hunt calendar at this time of year and the schedule certainly gives us betting people a regular opportunity to have a wager.  So it is wise to be selective in your forays into the markets and perhaps use the opportunity to indulge in a Lucky 15 to prolong your enjoyment and limit your exposure.   My attention has recently been drawn to Betfred’s mouth-watering offer of trebling the odds on your sole winning bet if your multiple yields just the one victor, so I find that added insurance a tempting attraction.  

Despite often putting a great deal of research into my horse selections prior to putting down my punt, however, I seem to find myself haemorrhaging overall profit via impulsive itches to get stuck into in-play football matches, often flicking Sky Sports on and taking a view on the likelihood of the game to reward its viewers with a few goals.  Ray Winstone is a convincing actor (you only have to watch his portrayal of Henry VIII to know that), and the seductive cockney growl he employs on Bet365’s television commercials is not lost on me.

This is where money can easily be lost.  Odds on over / under 2.5 goals regularly teeter around the evens mark, so when I fancy a few onion-bag bulgers to go in, I will select Betfair’s over / under 3.5 goals market instead, and look for an opportunity to trade.

One such opportunity presented itself over the Christmas break.  Lean Liverpool, with a pacey, goal-hungry attack visited a bloated, too-much-turkey QPR who were down on their luck and seemingly devoid of desire to do anything about it.  The over 3.5 goals bet looked the play, so I got involved with a hefty wager, exposing myself to £250 worth of losses at a price of 3.0 (2/1).  

Luis Suarez duly delivered the early blow, breezing past QPR’s centre backs after just 10 minutes and opening proceedings with a slick goal.  By half time the scoreline was 0-3 to the away side.  QPR looked dead and buried, and Twitter was awash with criticism of the lack of fight, spirit and skill shown by the west London hoops.

But that’s how things stayed.  The result at the final whistle was the same as it was at the break: 0-3.  If I had staked my £250 on over 3.5 goals in a betting shop, I would have lost my money.  Instead I hedged my position on Betfair as the odds tilted in my favour.  Here’s a few pictures to tell the story:

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OK – so the market rated the likelihood of this game rewarding us with more than three goals as a 33.3% chance.  I certainly thought it was more of a 50/50 shot so £250 went down prior to kick off, which was scheduled for a Sky Sports televised 4pm.  You can see the time at the top of this picture – after Liverpool went one up, the price on over 3.5 goals fell from 3.0 to 1.42 (a 70.4% chance).  I fancied Liverpool to press on and thrash QPR, but wanted to limit some of my losses, so I hit the lay button – effectively offering someone else to bet that there will be 3 goals or fewer.  You can see that I now stand to lose £100 (under) and win £381.20 (over).

 

 

Still with me?  Good.  A few minutes later, the controversial Uruguayan striker shot another dagger to the heart of QPR’s woefully inept defence.  At 0-2 it seemed almost inconceivable that this match wouldn’t be an absolute goalfest.  The market moved again:

 

Now the odds on more than 3.5 goals have shortened to just 1.11.  This is suggesting that there is a 90% probability of two more balls hitting the net before full-time.  The backers are out in force, thinking they’re buying money, and throwing cash at overs.  A £100 stake here would return £11 profit minus Betfair commission.

I decide to “exit” the market completely at this stage.  This gives me a free bet as my initial stake has now been returned and I either win (at best) or lose nothing (at worst).   There is only a hint of doubt that the goals won’t continue to fly in, but I’d rather not be risking anything if I don’t have to, and freeing up my £100 of remaining also exposure means I have funds available to bet on something else!  Frustratingly, Daniel Agger made it three to Liverpool after 28 minutes of play, so for a while I was thinking that I’d given up some much-desired profit.  As it eventually transpired, I needn’t have worried...

 

 

I use the iBetMate App on my iPhone, but for users of the official Betfair app, here’s what your screen would look like in this scenario.  They have this “Cash Out” feature on there which does the work for you.  At this point, hitting that big yellow button would mean that, whatever the outcome, I would win £346.72.

Greedily gorging myself over Christmas was not limited to the dinner table, though, and I still thought that Liverpool would get a fourth, hoping that maybe a half-time kick up the backside from ‘arry Redknapp might see QPR get one back.

So at half time, I made myself a cup of tea and had a little think before acting.  Rather than giving myself an opportunity to earn over £300 on either outcome, I laid a bit more of over 3.5 at around 1.2 and locked in a minimum of £190:

 

I’m sure you get the picture by now, and by way of balance I want to demonstrate that my trading on goals in football matches is not always this successful.  Discipline is key, and you should probably set yourself some profit targets before commencing your day’s work.  The following week, I had a similar strategy in the Southampton v Arsenal game, but didn’t execute the tactics with anywhere near as much effectiveness, resulting in a loss of £250.  I take some comfort in a good old fashioned wager though, and the £160.10 won on Suarez to score twice against QPR still feels better than the sensible hedging and trading of the goals market.  I guess while us gamblers might want to see ourselves as clever merchants of the multitude of markets available to us, deep down, we’re all seeking the thrill of a big win off a small stake!

Coral Welsh National - Value in the Wye Valley

Did you know there are apparently more atoms in a standard glass of water than there are glasses of water in all of the oceans on Earth?  Given the amount of rain that has fallen on Cheltenham over the Christmas period (68mm), and Chepstow on 22^nd December alone (31.98mm – the highest December daily fall for 8 years), I think that fact could be rewritten:  there are more atoms on west country/Monmouthshire racetracks than there are glasses of champagne consumed in a big-race winners’ enclosure. Or something.  Postponed due to more moisture than your average otter’s pocket, the Coral Welsh National has been rescheduled for this Saturday, and I have had a few thoughts that could, with a bit of good fortune, help get the New Year’s bubbly flowing for Palphabet readers.

I have talked up this horse before (6 minutes into this clip). I have backed him and been disappointed before. I have also been encouraged by him before. And before I go any further, I’ll give you his name: Soll. A close relative of Denman (not quite a half-brother as the progeny collide on the sire Presenting’s side, rather than on that of the mare), this Derrick Mossop-owned and Jo Hughes-trained beast has made the switch over from Willie Mullins’s yard in Closutton, Co Carlow, to a stable in Lambourn where the close attention of a female guv’nor who trains only a 'Norfolk-handful' of thoroughbreds over the sticks (she has six jumpers) seems to be paying dividends. The change in scenery from illustrious to relatively unknown may seem strange to some, but the owner specifically wanted a woman running a focused operation to take over the day-to-day training schedule of Soll as he felt the horse could benefit from a bit of extra TLC, and Hughes is said to be waxing lyrical about the latest recruit to her team.

The ears of the pundits have been pricked too.  Soll was the pick of a couple of presenters on The Morning Line as he vied for the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury off a mark of 140. The very impressive Henderson Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite, Bobs Worth went on to win that race but the depth and quality of the field was plain to see. Tidal Bay gallantly carried top weight and achieved a runner-up place, was raised from an offical rating of 166 to 169 and went on to win the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on the 27^thDecember, under one of three festive rides from Ruby Walsh that, collectively, made Alan Sweetman's Ireland's Eye well up with admiration.  Sweetman wrote in his Racing Post Christmas Highlights piece yesterday:  “In all my time watching racing I don't think I've witnessed three successive races won in such a manner by the same jockey”. He called it a "feat worthy of comparison with anything in the wider sporting world, as awe-inspiring as a Lionel Messi hat-trick, a sequence of birdies by Rory McIlroy or three aces in a row from Novak Djokovic".  Praise indeed, although I think Alan missed the opportunity to parallel the joy brought about by Walsh's equestrian talents with the ecstacy felt by Leyton Orient fans on account of current golden boy Moses Odubajo's sweet feet.  Ahem, I digress..

In the process of winning the Lexus, Tidal Bay saw off Gigginstown House Stud owned First Lieutenant, a 2 ½ length runner-up to Bobs Worth in last year’s RSA and himself placed third in the Hennessy, and the much-revered Flemenstar, who some have been quick to write off over the three-miles attempted in Ireland on Friday but who Tom Segal has said via the Racing Post’s website, has actually enhanced his credentials as a staying chaser.  Whether that thing goes for the Champion Chase and gives Sprinter Sacre a proper challenge; the Ryanair and wins a mid-distance test that Peter Casey’s son Francis described as a non-entity (upsetting Cheltenham chairman Robert Waley-Cohen in the process); or the Gold Cup for the most prestige; the fact that he got beaten by a head by an unbelievably likeable horse-jockey partnership should be taken in the Christmas spirit rather than bah-humbugged away like a failed new year’s resolution.

Anyway, that’s Flemenstar.

A Palphabet favourite, Wayne Hutchinson, causes 14/1 Welsh National shot Universal Soldier to catch the eye but I’ve noticed this evening that Soll has been tipped by Ben Hutton on the Racing Post’s Welsh National preview video, and see on www.oddschecker.com that he’s one of the most fancied bets anywhere in sport tonight.

Soll seems to be on punters' radars ahead of the weekend

There’s clearly some serious attention on this big chestnut gelding.  Why not have a watch of his performance at Newbury, focusing on his jumping, fluency in running and without worrying too much about him fading away on testing ground on this seasonal reappearance.

Mark Howard makes some encouraging comments about Soll in his National Hunt bible One Jump Ahead. Howard says this:

“Soll won over hurdles for John Quinn prior to joining Willie Mullins in Ireland. The Presenting gelding provided Mullins with his 100^th winner of the season last term (fastest ever in Ireland) when scoring at Down Royal in February. Brought down at Cheltenham [in the 4m National Hunt Chase], he has only run three times over fences and is held in high regard by his connections. “He’s a big baby but hopefully he has a big future,” remarked his owner Derrick Mossop, while Mullins stated in March: “He’s a big staying type and a horse we like a lot.” There could be a major staying handicap to be won with him this season.

In a handicap, you need a horse who can show improvement above his mark. I’ve just got off the phone to the owner’s son, Dan Mossop, who couldn’t contain his excitement about this “unexposed giant of a horse” and thinks he can run well above his mark of 139 under a weight of 10-12.

A few things points to summarise why Soll represents value for Saturday:

1. To win a race like this, you need to be a strong jumper, with plenty of stamina. Soll’s jumping is excellent and stamina is a key attribute.

2. His trainer, Jo Hughes, has been full of praise for his improvement since his decent performance in the Hennessy.

3. That Hennessy was very strong. For Tidal Bay (runner-up) to be raised by the handicapper from 166 to 169 and still win the Lexus shows the strength of the Newbury race

4. Front page headline grabber and AP McCoy mount Teaforthree won the 4m festival race in which Soll was brought down, and has figures of 2311 at Chepstow, justifying favouritism. But Teaforthree had a warm up race at Cheltenham in November before finishing sixth in the Hennessy, just over 6 lengths in front of Soll, who wasn’t really match fit after a long lay-off since March, when he wasn’t right in himself. Yet Teaforthree heads the market for Saturday at a best-price 3/1 now, whilst Soll is available at four or five times the price. It would not surprise me one iota if Tom Segal makes Soll his Pricewise pick when the Racing Post is digitally published tomorrow night.

I’ve had a few stabs on Betfair and Bet365 at prices ranging from 18/1 down to 14/1 with stakes that might be considered atomic to some hardcore punters but are fairly gigantic by my standards, and I hope to be able to buy more than a few glasses of water with the winnings come Saturday night. Let’s hope this enthusiasm seems more cosmic than comic by Sunday morning.