Trading on Five-Day Cricket: A Test of Nerve

12th August - 25th August 2011
Cricket: £152.08 | Golf: £37.73 | Horse Racing: £92.23 | Soccer: £2.92  Total P&L:  £284.96

The series may have ended in a joyous whitewash of India for the new holders of the ICC mace, but as Swanny celebrated like a demented fish in the middle, I was somewhat more sedate on the sidelines.  Yes, I was delighted that the side I have seen at Lord's against Sri Lanka twice this summer, and followed from Edgbaston to the Oval against the former world number ones, have reached the pinnacle of test cricket, but I'm left feeling empty at the prospect of a load of one-dayers and T20 matches, even with the promises of some heart-racing trading opportunities.

When I'm honest with myself, I can only put this emotional void down to the fact that I feel the £152.08 profit yielded over the past couple of weeks could have been so much more had I not panicked during Monday's final day of play in south London.

Having layed £200 at 1.55 about the draw after the first day's play, and strengthened with an additional stake of £80 at 3.4, I was looking a healthy profit dead in the face.  With the same steely resolve that Rahul Dravid showed as he racked up a monster 146*, carrying his bat, and eschewing a lie-down to come straight back out of the India dressing room after Strauss enforced the follow-on, I was convinced that a wall had been built around my cold-blooded Betfair persona.

Looking back, the warning signs were there.  I had been a bit shaky, a tad nervy, waking up very early (04:32!) on Monday and worrying about the weather forecast, I backed the draw, but immediately reversed that decision and re-layed, having read a more favourable predictor of meteorological events.

Then on the final day of the test match, with sun drooling down on the Oval proving the weatherman correct, and Tendulkar being carried along by rookie night-watchman Amit Mishra, the markets started turning against me.  Like Gambhir backpedalling to a Kevin Pietersen top-edge, I failed to sieze the opportunity I had been given, and fell over myself, eyes rolling about in my heed, as the draw became clear favourite on the exchanges.  Heading towards lunch, the draw fell from odds-against, to evens, to 1.8 then 1.65 and it all became too much for me.

With a recent post whirling around my dizzy dome (http://palphabet.blogspot.com/2011/08/pricewise-on-rolland-its-rubbing-off.html) and convinced the markets were reflecting reality, I decided to back out of the position, and waded into the draw like I was being pulled in by quicksand.  £650 backed at 1.65.

I went from GREEN, GREEN, RED to RED, RED, green in a space of seconds.. lunch was taken, and the draw fell further to 1.4.  I felt some relief.  But I kept saying to myself: "What if SRT and this part-timer lose their wickets? What if Swanny starts extracting some of that famous Oval turn?  What if the new ball makes a difference?"  

Chatting it through with @paolobow, we weighed up some of these possibilities, but had to accept that the right decision had probably been made.  The draw stood at 1.17 and I layed off £100 of my stake, reducing my £44 profit on the draw down to about £25 and thinking it was better than nothing.  

Then - drama! My ESPNcricinfo app started buzzing through to me - OUT! A Mishra 84 b Swann.... woah..ok......then OUT! SR Tendulkar 91 lbw b Bresnan... oh no.. like Gambhir coming to his senses and realising the error he had made, I suddenly felt ill (yet simultaneously gutted for Sachin and yet delighted for Brezza).  I was exposed to the tune of around £300 on an England victory.  A couple of hours ago, that outcome would have netted me nearly £400. 

I checked the markets: the draw stood at 1.6... still, even with those wickets falling.  I didn't understand it.  Taking an impulsive deep breath, I submerged myself again, laying £300... "Success!" said the iBetMate App that I used, "Bet UNmatched".  How that can be regarded as success in such spine-tingling moments, I will never know.  I adjusted the odds offered to 2.2 and clicked submit.  £300 matched at 14:58.

By 15:02, just four minutes later, the draw was out to 5.4.  I layed £30 and watched in awe as the figures lengthened further, the markets sent into haywire by a spell of 7 wickets for just 21 runs in an insane afternoon calypso-collapse by the struggling subcontinentals.

So, I walked away with a profit of £89.13 from this fourth and final test match.  It could have been much more, but I suppose a hell of a lot worse.  The whole episode re-emphasised to me that, whilst betting on test-cricket, you need to keep a) a close eye on the odds and b) your head....don't let the panic of the punters cloud your judgement or you'll miss the ball and end up like goggley-eyed Gambo on your back with a market-migraine..

Please click to enlarge and view the full extent of the turmoil

Never Mind The Bollocks, It's Worth A Try!

Whilst recently contemplating jacking everything in and becoming a full-time Betfair trader, I was reminded of a story that appeared a couple of years back, in that bastion of investigative journalism and insightful social commentary, the News of the World.  The "story", and it was utter bollocks, was that a 22 year-old city dropout named Elliott Short, had made himself a multi-millionaire in a year by simply laying the favourite and one other horse in races, the theory being that these two lose or can be backed in-running to guarantee a profit..

A punter's dream, I hear you cry.. I cried the same joyous tears.. if some tea-boy from a bank can do it, it'll be even easier for me! This piece from the Guardian shatters the illusion pretty succinctly

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2009/jun/30/greg-wood-betfair-notw-story

Still, I was encouraged when googling terms like "laying the field" or "lay all", that I came across Scott Ferguson's excellent blog, "Sport is Made for Betting", where he references the strategy as an enjoyable and often fruitful method of making cash out of the backers:

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2009/04/lay-field-my-favourite-racing-strategy.html

I am going to give it a try, and have started this afternoon with small £2 - £5 lay stakes, with liabilities per race limited to £30 - £60. 

It wasn't quite a "Eureka!" moment, but certainly a modern dimmer-switch effect in a contemporary flat. The light bulb was partially illuminated above my shaven-head / receding hairline after successfully opposing two odds-on Ballydoyle colts this afternoon (Seville and Await the Dawn) and opting to strengthen my position on the rest of the field by backing Namibian and Midday, who sadly both failed to claim victory in the successive York stakes.   An in-play lay of Midday, however, who looked in great nick but ultimately came in behind her Warren Place stablemate Twice Over, led to greater profit as I managed to have £40 snapped up by a greedy backer at just 1.3. 

Analysing the race afterwards, I thought that I would spend the rest of the early evening looking at races on channel 415 from Folkestone, Hereford and Bellewstown, laying favourites and monitoring in-play, placing bets that were unmatched from the off, but taken as the race unfolded.  I netted a further £33 profit from aforementioned small, toe-in-the-water stakes.  Took me back to my previous entry (see How involved in the markets are you? http://palphabet.blogspot.com/2011_07_01_archive.html)

Please click image to enlarge and enjoy!

I'm sure many Betfair aficionados reading will think my naivety is sweet and that it will all come crashing down, but I'm gonna give it a bash.. at least I can't follow the exposed idiot Elliott Short into the NOTW..

Looking!

Pricewise on a roll...and it's Rubbing Off!

Pricewise has been on fire recently and, having got stuck into some big double-figure winners, it's got me thinking about what life would be like as a professional practitioner of the backing/laying battle.. I don't want to be a professional punter, as I love to lay on the exchanges, and so I've started considering some mantras and mindsets to help me on my way..

To see Pricewise's recent form, check out http://tipsterform.com/category/tom-segal-tips/pricewise-tips/

I have to credit (or blame) the Racing Post's excellently entertaining golfing tipster Steve Palmer @stevepalmer78, his colleague Jeremy Chapman, the oracle known as Tom Segal (his surname is pronounced See-gal as in "legal" and "eagle", rather than Se-GAL, which is how most people say it!) and Pete Nordsted @petenordsted, author of the excellent "Mastering Betfair" for my recent changes in attitude towards/fortune on the markets.  After some early luck gambling, and a brief period thinking I understood the intricacies of the exchanges, I've realised some hard truths:

1. I am mortal - after a few wins, don't think you can't lose - don't get greedy with profits and end up "sinking" - see previous post "How involved in the markets are you?"

2. Get out when you can -  have a profit in mind before entering a market, particularly a long-term one like the winner of a football league, sports personality of the year or the next london mayor.. if things start turning against you, get out early and accept a small loss rather than "riding it out" and losing a boot load

3. Go hard and with conviction - this kind of counteracts the above but I now see that some of Pricewise's very clear recommendations are worth lumping on big time.  Don't just look at his bold numbers, but actually read the prose.  I'm convinced that Segal uses superlatives sparingly and when you read, and re-read his words, you can see that he doesn't REALLY want you to go with just 1pt on everything to win!  There are lays to be found in there too and the skill in following pricewise in is looking for the subtle tips and not just the obvious ones.    Thanks Paolo for the brainwave on this one!  Palmer's recent "betting highs" have also shown the merits in going gung-ho and searching for that "face-spitting" win.. the win that boosts your bank balance to such a significant level that you can a) resign from your job and b) do so by flobbing a greeny straight into your boss's face!

4. Feed money in and out of betfair - don't leave a load of cash in your account - you'll only spend it on stuff you don't want to get involved in.. those extra few minutes to deposit funds may well provide much needed clarity to a situation.

5. Don't bet on stuff you can't keep an eye on - unless you are just going for a straightforward punt on something, I think it's essential to be able to watch the event "live" whenever possible.

6. Use stop losses and limit orders - if you have to go out, this is useful, but even not, put the bets onto the Betfair exchange and leave them unmatched - this way you can think with head rather than heart .. just make sure you check the box to keep the bet live after the event turns in-play.. Look for horses that come from the back with a late surge, and place a bet up to 10 times bigger than the SP in the hope that it will get matched after a few furlongs.. equally place a lay to cover your stake on those "Frankels" that shorten early and could potentially come unstuck one day .. *maybe Frankel isn't a great example for this!

7. Have a strategy / tactical plan in mind for an event - I've been guilty of breaking this rule too many times in the past.  Think about what you will be prepared to accept (wins & losses) and act with a clear head rather than blind panic

I know that a fellow punter, Si Nicoll is keen to develop a ten-commandments of betting, and I invite you to share with me your rules of attacking various sporting events with the power of your CVV code so we can exapand upon some of these ramblings!